Economic crisis and determinants of solvency in the insurance sector: new evidence from Spain

This paper analyses the factors that determine the solvency of insurance companies operating in Spain. The selected time span, from 2008 to 2015, encompasses a period of economic instability characterised by record low interest rates and low or even negative economic growth. Using a dynamic panel data model, we conclude that actual solvency margins are positively related to profitability, underwriting risk and a mutual-type organisation but inversely related to size, reinsurance use, longer-tailed business and life insurance specialisation. We also find that less concentrated markets and the context of an economic crisis decrease solvency margins.     

Crisis transmission: Some evidence from the Asian financial crisis

We used a crisis measure of financial market as defined by Sexena (1998) to study the nature of crisis transmission and the channels through which the 1997 crisis was transmitted among Asian financial markets. Estimated with a vector autoregression (VAR) and an OLS model on Asian financial markets from January 1990 to December 1998, we found that:

1.

During the crisis period, crisis transmission was more significant than during other noncrisis periods;

2.

Comparing the crisis transmission within the industrialized countries (Taiwan, Korea, and Japan), within the emerging countries (Thailand, Malaysia, The Philippines, and Indonesia), and between the industrialized and emerging groups, it is shown that

2.1.

The crisis transmission among the three industrialized countries was not significant.

2.2.

The crises originated from Thailand and Malaysia were transmitted to other emerging countries.

2.3.

The crisis transmission between industrialized and emerging countries was not found to be significant. There was evidence showing that Singapore served as an intermediary transmitting crisis between industrialized and emerging countries during this particular crisis.

3.

The transmission through the wake-up call effect was found to be more significant than other transmission channels. Trade relationship and cash-in effects only existed in Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia.

     

资产证券化与银行体系稳定性研究

本文基于美国主要银行资产证券化面板数据的回归模型和单因素联结模型,研究资产证券化对银行个体和系统性风险的影响。研究结果发现,对于银行个体而言,开展资产证券化业务并不会影响其稳定性,而持有证券化资产则会对其稳定性产生不利影响。对于银行系统而言,证券化资产在银行系统内和系统外不同的配置情况将导致不同的风险结果。市场上的过度证券化行为以及由资产证券化引起的银行间收益相关性的上升可能会导致较大的系统性风险。最后,本文基于美国的研究结果对我国银行开展资产证券化业务提出相应的对策建议。     

Asymmetric information in securitization: An empirical assessment

Asymmetric information in securitization deals is analyzed based on a unique dataset comprising a million mortgages, both securitized and not, and using a methodology, previously applied to insurance data, that looks at the correlation between risk transfer and default probability. The main finding is that, for given observable characteristics, securitized mortgages have a lower default probability than non-securitized ones. We show that this finding is consistent with banks caring about their reputation for not selling lemons.     

Securitization and the dark side of diversification

Diversification by banks affects the systemic risk of the sector. Importantly, Wagner (2010) shows that linear diversification increases systemic risk. We consider the case of securitization, whereby loan portfolios are sliced into tranches with different seniority levels. We show that tranching offers nonlinear diversification strategies, which can reduce the failure risk of individual institutions beyond the minimum level attainable by linear diversification without increasing systemic risk.     

住房抵押贷款支持证券定价模型的发展与启示

住房抵押贷款证券化发行的住房抵押贷款支持证券包含提前偿还风险和违约风险两个期权,这使得其定价要比一般债券的定价复杂得多。而我国的住房抵押贷款证券化又有着不同证券化发达国家的特点,因此研究国外定价模型的适用情景和发展对我国的实践是非常必要的。本文旨在沿着住房抵押贷款支持证券定价理论结构化和简约化模型两条主要线索的发展,对该领域的最新研究成果进行介绍和评价,并得出和我国住房抵押贷款证券化实践相关的启示。     

大数据视阈下资产证券化基础资产风险重构--以互联网消费信贷信用分析为例

针对近年来我国互联网行业推出的互联网消费信贷以及2015年以来将消费者信贷资产证券化后向投资者推出的现象,本文立足于传统信贷风险的分析并同时考虑资产证券化会为消费者信贷带来的风险因素,力图探讨这类新兴互联网金融产品的风险控制问题,同时证明建立互联网征信系统的迫切性。在分析中涉及到对于目前我国征信系统的发展概况以及大数据时代之下互联网金融征信的发展可期的方向;并与美国新兴成熟互联网征信平台ZestFinance进行对比,旨在为我国互联网消费信贷资产证券化征信平台建立提出发展的思路。     

巨灾风险证券化中的操作风险及其控制途径

巨灾风险证券化是把巨灾保险风险转化为衍生证券,销售给金融市场上的投资者,以此实现巨灾保险风险向资本市场的分散转移。但受信息不对称、触发机制等因素影响,巨灾风险证券化这种复杂的技术手段也会引起一些操作风险,如道德风险、基差风险、信用风险等。通过完善信息披露机制、合理选择触发方式、强化巨灾证券的交易保证金要求、加强监管等措施,可以有效地降低巨灾风险证券化过程中的各种风险,促进其平稳健康发展。     

State-ownership and financial constraints on investment of Chinese-listed firms: new evidence

We examine how state-ownership affects financial constraints on investment of Chinese-listed firms during 1999–2008. We find that although an average sample firm experiences some degree of financial constraints, state-ownership does not necessarily help in reducing the firm's financial constraints on investment. Further evidence shows that state-ownership does not lead to more borrowing from the Chinese banking sector, implying that state-ownership does not necessarily reduce the firm's financial constraints via the state-controlled banking sector. We consider not only the standard factors in the investment equation, but also the firm's equity financing behaviour explicitly. The result is robust to both the conventional proxy for financial constraints, i.e. the investment–cash-flow sensitivity, and a recently developed proxy for financial constraints, i.e. the KZ index. Our results suggest that China's corporatisation movement is effective in that soft budget constraints once enjoyed by former state-owned enterprises have been removed along with the progress of corporatisation. These firms, although still state-involved, can be seen as modern corporations operating in a market environment.     

Securitization markets and central banking: An evaluation of the term asset-backed securities loan facility

In response to the near collapse of US securitization markets in 2008, the Federal Reserve created the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which offered non-recourse loans to finance investors’ purchases of certain highly rated asset-backed securities. We study the effects of this program and find that it lowered interest rate spreads for some categories of asset-backed securities but had little impact on the pricing of individual securities. These findings suggest that the program improved conditions in securitization markets but did not subsidize individual securities. We also find that the risk of loss to the US government was small.     

A theory of corporate financial decisions with liquidity and solvency concerns

This paper studies the impact of both liquidity and solvency concerns on corporate finance. I present a tractable model of a firm that optimally chooses capital structure, cash holdings, dividends, and default while facing cash flows with long-term uncertainty and short-term liquidity shocks. The model explains how changes in solvency affect liquidity and also how liquidity concerns affect solvency via capital structure choice. These interactions result in a dynamic cash policy in which cash reserves increase in profitability and are positively correlated with cash flows. The optimal dividend distributions implied by the model are smoothed relative to cash flows. I also find that liquidity concerns lead to a decrease of dispersion of credit spreads.     

冰岛金融危机的起因、教训与启示

在全球金融危机的冲击下,冰岛成为第一个陷入困境而向IMF求助的发达国家。该文分析了冰岛金融危机的起因及教训,认为冰岛危机是自身经济发展失衡、金融过度膨胀且存在结构缺陷的后果;政府的金融监管与危机应对措施也负有重大责任。对其他国家都有着重要的警示意义。     

Adjusted accounting beta,operating leverage and financial leverage as determinants of market beta: A synthesis and empirical evaluation

This article reexamines and synthesizes two streams of research dealing with the relationship between market beta and accounting risk measures. It is shown that, with some minor rearrangement the Mandelker and Rhee (1984) model can be shown to be as a decomposition of the familiar accounting beta (Beaver, Kettler and Scholes 1970) into operating leverage, financial leverage, and an adjusted accounting beta. The adjusted accounting beta can be further decomposed into productivity gains and the relative cyclical sensitivity of the accounting flows of the firm. Empirical estimates of this extension made using three accounting flow measures in addition to earnings show that the intrinsic business risk factor not identified in the original Mandelker and Rhee model is the most significant explanatory factor related to market beta.     

Determinants of financial covenants and pricing of debt in private debt contracts: the UK evidence

This paper presents details of financial covenants given by a sample drawn from the largest 200 non-financial quoted firms in the UK in private debt contracts and analyses these data to see whether there are relationships between the nature of the covenants given and firm characteristics. Data were obtained from 72 firms, of which 17 gave no financial covenants. Firm size was found to be the only significant factor influencing whether firms did or did not give covenants as well as the only factor which influenced the margin given on debt. Some types of covenants given were found to be different from those found in previous research. In particular, there is greater use of EBITDA as a base for both interest cover and gearing covenants. This shows the importance of cash flow based lending as opposed to asset based lending for general financing for large firms.     

金融全球化进程中金融风险的防范与化解(英文)

在全球金融化的进程中,金融活动在全球范围内得到扩展和深化,同时每个金融主体也面临着不同程度的风险,很多因素都可能加强金融风险,其中包括人为因素和系统因素。而包括中国在内的发展中国家在抵御可能的风险方面能力较弱,所以我们更加需要采取正确并积极的方式来抵御金融风险。     

“银根紧缩”政策下我国地方国资资产证券化的发展诉求及策略

在＂银根紧缩＂政策影响下,地方国资资产证券化既是地方政府实现直接融资的＂抓手＂,也是促进当地经济发展的＂推手＂。要完成十二.五时期地方政府确定的经济社会发展目标,地方国资资产证券化将是一条有效率的直接融资途径。因此,积极探索＂银根紧缩＂政策下我国地方国资资产证券化的发展诉求及策略具有重要意义。     

The impact of securitization on credit rationing: Empirical evidence

We study whether banks’ involvement into different types of securitization activity – asset backed securities (ABS) and covered bonds – in Spain influences credit supply before and during the financial crisis. While both ABS and covered bonds were hit by the crisis, the former were hit more severely. Employing a disequilibrium model to identify credit rationing, we find that firms with banks that were more involved in securitization see their credit constraints more relaxed in normal periods. In contrast, only greater covered bonds issuance reduces credit rationing during crisis periods whereas ABS aggravates these firms’ credit rationing in crisis periods. Our results are in line with the theoretical predictions that a securitization instrument that retains risk (covered bond) may induce a more prudent risk behavior of banks than an instrument that provides risk transferring (ABS).     

金融全球化进程中金融风险的防范与化解

在全球金融化的进程中,金融活动在全球范围内得到扩展和深化,同时每个金融主体也面临着不同程度的风险,很多因素都可能加强金融风险,其中包括人为因素和系统因素.而包括中国在内的发展中国家在抵御可能的风险方面能力较弱,所以我们更加需要采取正确并积极的方式来抵御金融风险.     

Securitization and systematic risk in European banking: Empirical evidence

Using a unique dataset of 592 cash and synthetic securitizations issued by 54 banks from the EU-15 plus Switzerland over the period from 1997 to 2007 this paper provides empirical evidence that credit risk securitization has a positive impact on the increase of European banks’ systematic risk. Baseline results hold when comparing estimated beta coefficients with a control group of similar non-securitizing banks. Building several sub-samples we additionally find that (a) the increase in systematic risk is more relevant for larger banks that repeatedly engage in securitization, (b) securitization is more important for small and medium financial institutions, (c) banks have a higher incentive to retain the larger part of credit risk as a quality signal at the beginning of the securitization business in Europe, and (d) the overall risk-shifting effect due to securitization is more distinct when the pre-event systematic risk is low.