Assessing economic complexity as interindustry connectedness in nine OECD countries

Economic complexity can be defined as the level of interdependence between the component parts of an economy. In input–output systems interindustry connectedness is a crucial feature of analysis, and there are many different methods of measuring it. Most of the measures however, have important drawbacks to be used as a good indicator of economic complexity, because they were not explicitly made with this purpose in mind. In this paper, we present, discuss and compare empirically different indexes of economic complexity as intersectoral connectedness, using the inter-industry tables of nine OECD countries. According to most of the measures of connectedness large economies (USA, Japan) tend to be more complex than small economies (for example, Denmark). But if another type of measures is considered, the opposite conclusion is drawn, signalling a hidden characteristic of interdependence that so far has not been detected by conventional measures. This result should qualify the widespread idea that more interconnected productive structures propagate more intensely exogenous shocks and/or economic policy measures.     

Fear connectedness among asset classes

This study investigates the interconnection between five implied volatility indices representative of different financial markets during the period 1 August 2008–29 December 2017. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach) using a framework recently proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz. Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate both the net directional connectedness for each market and all net pairwise directional connectedness. Our results suggest that a 38.99%, of the total variance of the forecast errors is explained by shocks across markets, indicating that the remainder 61.01% of the variation is due to idiosyncratic shocks. Furthermore, we find that volatility connectedness varies over time, with a surge during periods of increasing economic and financial instability. Finally, we also document frequently switch between a net volatility transmitter and a net volatility receiver role in the five markets under study.     

Dynamic frequency connectedness between oil and natural gas volatilities

The goal of this paper is twofold. First, we study dynamic volatility connectedness between oil and natural gas over the period 1994 to 2018. Second, we examine the frequency dynamics of the transmission mechanism arising from frequency-specific responses to volatility shocks. To do so, we adopt a newly introduced approach that decomposes connectedness measures based on variance decompositions into their components at different frequency ranges. Our results summarize as follows: (a) there is a substantial variation in volatility spillovers over time; (b) the natural gas market was a net transmitter during the central part of our sample period; (c) the magnitude of spillovers was smaller after the financial crisis, but volatilities are not decoupled. (d) The volatility propagation mechanism is frequency dependent. Connectedness is typically created at low-frequencies, with volatility shocks across markets having long-lasting effects. However, during some specific periods, such as after Katrina, volatility was transmitted much faster, with shocks dissipating in the short-run.     

Debt uncertainty and economic growth: evidence from five highly indebted Eurozone countries

The goal of this study is to examine the relationships between economic growth and debt uncertainty by applying the threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity modelling methodology in five Eurozone countries spanning the period 2001–2013. The results document that during the European fiscal crisis period, debt uncertainty exerts a significant negative effect on economic growth across all five Eurozone countries that experienced the deterioration of their fiscal positions.     

Forecasting European economic policy uncertainty

Forecasting the economic policy uncertainty in Europe is of paramount importance given the ongoing sovereign debt crisis. This paper evaluates monthly economic policy uncertainty index forecasts and examines whether ultra‐high frequency information from asset market volatilities and global economic uncertainty can improve the forecasts relatively to the no‐change forecast. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty provides the highest predictive gains, followed by the European and US stock market realized volatilities. In addition, the European stock market implied volatility index is shown to be an important predictor of the economic policy uncertainty.     

Economy through a lens: Distortions of policy coverage in UK national newspapers

This paper shows that communication of economic news varies across newspapers in the United Kingdom. We develop new time series of economic news tonality using a unique dataset of policy influenced articles published in major UK newspapers. We show that the volume and tonality of news respond to current economic conditions. For example, the nature of news changes around events of economic uncertainty such as the global financial crisis and the post-EU referendum periods. We also provide illustrative evidence that communication differs across newspaper formats. Tabloids, as opposed to quality newspapers, tend to express news more negatively, and mostly report policy-related news during periods of economic stress. The integral importance of these results is illustrated by news reaction curves showing a strong positive relationship mostly lasting three months between consumer sentiments and news.     

Stock prices,inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes

We test for the long-run relationship between stock prices, inflation and its uncertainty for different U.S. sector stock indexes, over the period 2002M7–2015M10. For this purpose we use a cointegration analysis with one structural break to capture the crisis effect, and we assess the inflation uncertainty based on a time-varying unobserved component model. In line with recent empirical studies we discover that in the long run, the inflation and its uncertainty negatively impact the stock prices, opposed to the well-known Fisher effect. In addition we show that for several sector stock indexes the negative effect of inflation and its uncertainty vanishes after the crisis outburst. However, in the short run the results provide evidence in favour of a negative impact of uncertainty, while the inflation has no significant influence on stock prices, except for the consumption indexes. The consideration of business cycle effects confirms our findings, which proves that the results are robust, both for long- and short-run relationships.     

Dynamics of monetary policy spillover: The role of exchange rate regimes

In a time-varying framework, our study investigates the role of exchange rate regimes in explaining monetary policy spillover across a set of AEs and EMEs. We also investigate the channels contributing to the dynamism in the degree of such spillover. We find that the flexible exchange rate regime in the AEs insulates them against the spillover to a relatively larger extent as compared to the managed float regime in the EMEs. We also find that the spillover is strongly time-varying, being influenced by macroeconomic conditions in the centre economy. Risk-taking, portfolio rebalancing, and signaling channels are found to be significant in explaining the rise in spillover in the EMEs, but not in the AEs. The rise in the connectedness of interest rates in the AEs occurred only during the global financial crisis (2008–12), owing to their higher policy coordination with the US. This should not be misconstrued as monetary policy spillover.     

Housing market volatility connectedness among G7 countries

This study investigates international linkages among housing markets in the G7 countries, using the connectedness methodology developed in Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2015). We find that volatility connectedness varies over the business cycle, with a surge during the global financial crisis. We also show that the United States and Italy were major net transmitters of housing market volatility shocks to other countries during the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, respectively.     

Economic policy uncertainty and economic activity in Turkey

We construct economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index for Turkey based on newspaper coverage frequency. The EPU index reflects the frequency counts of articles in major Turkish newspapers that contain specific terms related to economy, policy and uncertainty. The EPU index rises around national elections (2002, 2007 and 2015), domestic uncertainty periods (2008 and 2013), domestic and global financial crisis periods (2001 and 2009) and the Euro area debt crisis in 2011. The investigation of the impact of EPU on economic activity reveals that policy uncertainty has adverse impacts on economic growth, consumption and investment in Turkey. Remarkable is that high uncertainty leads to a greater investment decline than output and consumption.     

Volatility transmission between stock and foreign exchange markets: a connectedness analysis

ABSTRACT

This paper empirically investigates volatility transmission among stock and foreign exchange markets in seven major world economies during the period July 1988 to May 2018. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each market. To gain further insights, we examine the time-varying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness during the financial turmoil periods experienced in the sample period Our results suggest that slightly more than half of the total variance of the forecast errors is explained by shocks across markets rather than by idiosyncratic shocks. Furthermore, we find that volatility connectedness varies over time, with a surge during periods of increasing economic and financial instability.     

Firm value in commonly uncertain times: the divergent effects of corporate governance and CSR

Economic uncertainty disrupts firms’ ability to create value. Most related literature examines how various organizational characteristics affect value under extreme conditions – the global financial crisis. However, recent work in quantifying economic uncertainty now makes it possible to take a more nuanced approach in investigating the conditions under which this value reduction can be mitigated during more ‘commonly uncertain’ periods. In this paper we analyze the effects of corporate governance mechanisms and social responsibility investments on Tobin’s q across 13 years and 40 countries. Evidence suggests that shareholder-centric corporate governance policies restrict board and executive flexibility during uncertain times, and therefore stifle their ability to react effectively to adverse macroeconomic changes. We also find that CSR initiatives serve as insurance in that they preserve value under uncertainty by acting as a reservoir of social capital.     

The impact of financial crises and tolerance for uncertainty

Financial crises can have severe negative effects on investment. One reason for this is that financial crises increase uncertainty, increasing the real option value of delaying investment. In this paper, we show that the negative effect of crises on investment differs significantly across countries: in countries with low tolerance for uncertainty, the negative effect is strong. The negative effect is absent in countries that are more tolerant of uncertainty. These findings are similar across different types of financial crisis; they vary as predicted across type of investor, asset and industry; and they are not driven by uncertainty-averse countries adopting more rigid institutions.     

经济政策不确定性与企业多元化程度选择

多元化是现代企业发展战略中的一个重要问题。近年来多元化程度下降成为我国上市公司发展中一个主要特征。以2003-2017年沪深两市上市公司为研究对象,考察经济政策不确定性对上市公司多元化的影响。结果显示:经济政策不确定性与上市公司多元化程度显著负相关;对内生性问题进行处理后,这种负相关性在民营企业、高成长企业、非受保护行业的企业以及在金融危机爆发后更为明显。进一步研究还表明:上市公司经营实力、治理环境和股东监督力度的提高,会使经济政策不确定性对降低公司多元化程度的影响有所减弱。政府减少政策变动,保持政策的长期性和稳定性,并在制定经济政策时充分考虑企业的异质性特征,有利于企业多元化程度选择;另一方面,公司也需不断提高自身的学习能力,优化治理体系,增强抗风险能力。     

What is on the ECB’s mind? Monetary policy before and after the global financial crisis

This paper analyzes the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) both before and after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. In the literature, researchers typically select one Taylor rule-based model to analyze monetary policy of central banks and to derive determinants for the interest rate setting. However, uncertainty about the choice of this respective model is typically neglected. In contrast, we apply a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach to extend the Taylor rule to account for model uncertainty driven by heterogeneity in the ECB’s decision-making body, the Governing Council. Our results suggest the following: First, the ECB focuses on the inflation rate when setting interest rates. Second, economic activity indicators were in the focus of the ECB before the financial crisis. Third, over the last decade, the role of economic activity decreased, indicating that inflation is the main driver of monetary policy decisions in the post-crisis period. Fourth, when setting interest rates, central bankers appear to consider more than one model.     

The effects of economic policy uncertainty on China’s economy: evidence from time-varying parameter FAVAR

ABSTRACT

This article explores the effects of China’s economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on its fiscal policy, monetary policy and a wide range of macro-economic variables using a time-varying parameter FAVAR model. Based on monthly data from 07/2003 to 08/2017, the time-varying structure of the model allows us to capture the time-varying characteristics of the macro-economic variables and which channel is relevant. Empirical results reveal that the reaction of monetary and fiscal policies to EPU is highly asymmetric across macro-economic circumstances. Loose monetary and fiscal policies are adopted in response to EPU shocks during the financial crisis, while policies are moderately tightened after the crisis. The China Interbank Offered Rate (Chibor) responds more sensitively and severely than M2 to EPU shocks. Additionally, EPU shocks have a significant and negative impact on economic growth, consumption, exchange rates, bonds and the stock market, but showing a positive impact on credit, real estate and fixed asset investment (which might be due to China’s special economic market environment and the high investment return). The results indicate that EPU shocks significantly affect macroeconomic fundamentals through precautionary savings and financial market channels but lose their effectiveness through a ‘real options’ effect.     

世界经济的不确定性及其对中国经济可持续发展的影响

本文认为这次危机是近30年来最严重的金融危机,并且金融危机的影响远未结束。世界经济的不确定性会导致中国贸易顺差减少、增加货币调控的难度、输入型通胀的重大压力和其他问题。本文认为中国应实施的对策是：强化信息披露与金融监管制度;实施扩大内需政策,改变经济增长方式;以经济手段和配套政策综合治理通货膨胀;加强和国际社会的协调、合作。     

The role of corporate governance strength in crisis and non-crisis times

This study evaluates corporate governance practices of listed firms in the United Arab Emirates and investigates whether corporate governance mitigates/exacerbates the impact of leverage and risk on firm performance during crisis and non-crisis times. The study constructs a corporate governance index not only to examine the dispute of the role of corporate governance during the crisis but also its influence on other factors that fuelled the crisis. A firm-level panel data is used that spans the period 2008–2012 of all listed firms on Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) and Dubai Financial Market (DFM). The study finds a positive influence of corporate governance strength on the accounting performance, but a negative influence on the firms’ economic performance. In normal times, corporate governance mitigates the negative influence of leverage and risk on the accounting and economic firm performance. However, this synergy effect varies across performance indicators during crisis.     

The static and dynamic connectedness of environmental,social, and governance investments: International evidence

We investigate the connectedness of the most significant global equity indices that comprise companies with the highest environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance. Motivated by the rapid growth of socially responsible investing during the last two decades, we examine whether these investments are prone to similar exogenous economic and financial shocks as their conventional counterparts. Employing a variety of influential macroeconomic and financial variables over the period 10/1/2007–4/15/2020, we document statistically significant and consistent transmissions between the employed equity indices throughout the sample period. In particular, the connectedness exhibits dynamic patterns during three periods: the European sovereign debt crisis, the systemic Greek problems, and the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. We also find that developed equity markets are the shock transmitters to Asian and other emerging markets. Our results highlight the risk of contagion and the diminishing portfolio diversification benefits of these equity indices during turbulent periods.     

Consumer confidence as a GDP determinant in New EU Member States: a view from a time-varying perspective

This paper offers a pioneer attempt to unveil the time-varying impact of consumer confidence on GDP growth. The empirical analysis is based on a state space model with time-varying coefficients, which is employed on a dataset from 11 New EU Member States. It is shown that the impact of consumer confidence (reflecting the overall uncertainty level in the country) skyrockets in the 2008 Great Recession, providing evidence that the recent crisis was to some extent psychologically governed. After that, the influence of consumer confidence on GDP mostly stabilizes at earlier levels. The EU accession seems not to play an important role in the observed relationship. The obtained conclusions are quite robust across countries and remain intact upon the inclusion of additional control variables in the model. A possible solution for keeping the psychological determinants of the crisis under control is a prompt, coherent, and clearly communicated crisis management policy, which might help preventing a momentous drop of consumer confidence and overall uncertainty.