Election cycles in mining licensing: theory and evidence from Albania

Most of the literature on political business and budgetary cycles (PBBC) has focused on fiscal and monetary policy variables in advanced-country contexts. We extend this literature by investigating political cycle effects in a non-monetary, non-fiscal policy regime (the allocation of mining licences) in a transition country context. We propose a model of mining licensing that allows for corruption and for both supply and demand effects to determine the outcome. We then estimate this model using time-series data from post-communist Albania. Relying on a dynamic Poisson model, we find evidence of both opportunistic and partisan effects. Based on our theory, we suggest a corruption interpretation of political cycles in non-fiscal/non-monetary variables. This interpretation, we suggest, may be more applicable to the context of developing and transition countries. Our study raises important questions about the unintended (and often pernicious) effects of transition politics on economic regulation and economic performance in post-socialist economies.     

Licensing policies for a new product

This paper studies licensing policies for the owner of a new product and addresses their welfare impact in the assessment of market failures. We show that the best licensing policy for the patent holder is fixed fee licensing with an exclusive territory clause. Consumers are also better off with fixed fees but do not prefer the exclusive territory clause. Social welfare is higher under exclusive territories when fixed costs are not too large. As for efficiency, the number of licences in the private market equilibrium falls short of the socially optimal solution. Our analysis discloses that (i) any policy measures aimed at enhancing the diffusion of technology, in terms of the number of licences, would be welcomed and, (ii) the permissive treatment received by licensing agreements with exclusive territories is justified.     

Deregulation and firm investment: evidence from the dismantling of the license system in India

We analyse the impact of deregulatory reforms in India during the 1990s, which eliminated compulsory industrial licensing, on manufacturing firms’ investment decisions. We find an economically and statistically significant positive effect of delicensing on investment. We also show that firms in states with better credit conditions benefitted more from the removal of licences. Moreover, our analysis demonstrates that the increase in investment was predominantly driven by smaller firms.     

The Economic Sustainability of Post-conflict Kosovo

Kosovo is currently operating as an independent economic state, having severed the majority of economic links with the former Yugoslavia. This article explains why the Yugoslav dinar was replaced by the DM (in turn replaced by the Euro) as the new national currency of post-conflict Kosovo. Use of the DM, coupled with a relatively open trade policy, has resulted in a severe visible trade deficit. The stock of DM is continuously being replenished by the inflow of money both from the various international agencies operating in Kosovo and from remittances from Kosovars working abroad. The article argues that, even with the current low level of export earnings, the economy of Kosovo is economically sustainable, since the international presence in Kosovo is partly responsible for the high demand for imports. However, in the absence of a competitive export sector, the economy is still highly reliant upon the inflow of remittances, without which Kosovo would be unable to meet the costs of vital imports.     

Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict societies

Countries emerging from civil war attract both aid and policy advice. This paper provides the first systematic empirical analysis of aid and policy reform in the post-conflict growth process. It is based on a comprehensive data set of large civil wars, and covers 17 societies that were in their first decade of post-conflict economic recovery. We first investigate whether the absorptive capacity for aid is systematically different in post-conflict countries. We find that during the first 3 post-conflict years absorptive capacity is no greater than normal, but that in the rest of the first decade it is approximately double its normal level. Thus, ideally, aid should phase in during the decade. Historically, aid has not, on average, been higher in post-conflict societies, and indeed it has tended to taper out over the course of the decade. We then investigate whether the contribution of policy to growth is systematically different in post-conflict countries, and in particular, whether particular components of policy are differentially important. For this we use the World Bank policy rating database. We find that growth is more sensitive to policy in post-conflict societies. Comparing the efficacy of different policies, we find that social policies are differentially important relative to macroeconomic policies. However, historically, this does not appear to have been how policy reform has been prioritized in post-conflict societies.     

Re-Examining Sovereignty Claims in Changing Territorialities: Reflections from ‘Kosovo Syndrome’

Current legal and normative doctrine forbids de jure recognition to those territorial units whose political leadership has been resisted by metropolitan central authorities. Recognition on the basis of uti possidetis juris makes the self-determination of people a territorial issue. This paper presents a framework for conceptualising and analysing the impact of ‘indivisible sovereignty’ and territoriality dilemmas on self-determination claims, resonating most strongly in the recent Kosovo campaign for independence. It then re-examines seceding motivations and birth-giving processes in Northern Cyprus, Transnistria and Republika Srpska, all which could be defined as self-proclaimed post-conflict entities deemed to gain international recognition. Finally, the paper illustrates the impact of ‘Kosovo syndrome’ on the preservation of status quo while concluding that the immediate reactions to Kosovo independence diverged from case to case to the extent where Turkish Cypriots found new stimulus for reunification, Transnistrians advocated a new model of conflict resolution and Bosnian Serbs increased their bargaining power.     

Does licensing promote innovation?

ABSTRACT

We analyse the impact of licensing on the equilibrium amount of cost-reducing innovation under several licensing mechanisms in the case of a duopoly model with heterogeneous firms. Under a wide class of licensing mechanisms, we find that as product substitutability increases, the possibility of higher innovation under licensing compared to no licensing decreases. Therefore, firms’ heterogeneity is crucial to assess whether licensing incentivizes or not R&D cost-reducing investments.     

Kosovo – EU trade relations: a dynamic panel poisson approach

To inform policymaking following trade liberalization between Kosovo and the EU within the framework of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA), we specify a gravity model to investigate Kosovo’s trade in goods with 28 EU countries over the period 2005–2013. We reconcile competing methodological requirements by using a dynamic Poisson approach to estimation. Together, persistent trade patterns and an unfavourable combination of demand and supply elasticities suggest that trade liberalization in isolation is not sufficient to promote exports but may need to be incorporated within a wider policy and institutional framework. In addition, our findings suggest that trade costs should be a particular focus for policy: distance has a big negative influence on Kosovo’s exports to EU countries; while diaspora communities promote Kosovo’s exports to EU markets, most likely because they offset trade costs.     

Ethnic conflict and economic disparity: Serbians and Albanians in Kosovo

Using the Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) household survey from post-conflict Kosovo, we investigate the comparative economic well-being of Serbs and Albanians. An Oaxaca decomposition shows Serb households are both better endowed with income generating characteristics, such as education, and receive higher returns to these characteristics than Albanian households. Despite these advantages, Serb households have lower living standards, on average, than Albanian households. Most of the difference in living standards between Serb and Albanian households is due to unobserved non-economic factors. This result has serious implications for the political economy of policymaking in post-conflict Kosovo. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 754–773.     

Does technology licensing matter for privatization?

In mixed oligopolies, technology licensing from a cost‐efficient firm to a cost‐inefficient firm has been widely observed. This paper examines the relationship between privatization and licensing (by public or private firms) with the consideration of either a domestic or a foreign private firm. We find that (a) in the case of a domestic private firm, public licensing facilitates privatization, but private licensing hinders privatization; (b) in the case of a foreign private firm, both public and private licensing facilitate privatization. Our results yield important policy implications on privatization.     

Trade Policy in the Presence of Technology Licensing*

We consider strategic trade policy when a high‐cost and a low‐cost firm belonging to two different countries compete in quantities in a third country, and technology is transferable via licensing. We characterize the effects of subsidies on (i) licensing payments—a new source of rents, (ii) the decision to license, and (iii) the subsidy bill difference (compared to when licensing is infeasible). We find that, in the presence of licensing, optimal strategic trade policy has several interesting features. For example, even under Cournot competition, optimal policy can be an export tax instead of an export subsidy. Also, unlike results in strategic trade policy with asymmetric costs, we find that optimal export subsidies are not necessarily positively related to the cost‐competitiveness of firms. In other words, governments need not necessarily favor “winners” when licensing is possible. Furthermore, there exist parameterizations such that a government, if it can, might ban licensing.     

Migration and intention to return: entrepreneurial intentions of the diaspora in post-conflict economies

This article examines the intentions of the diaspora to return to their homeland and engage in entrepreneurial activity. We focus on post-conflict economies where the development potential of return migration is significant. Our article demonstrates that the entrepreneurial intentions of returning diaspora are affected by their level of trust and perceptions of risk in institutions at home. Through a survey of diaspora returning to Kosovo, the paper finds that business experience has a negative relationship on probability to return, but it has a positive relationship on entrepreneurial intentions. However, those with professional and qualified jobs are more likely to have intentions to return, but less likely to have entrepreneurial intentions. The paper contributes to academic research on the central importance of institutions to post-conflict development, demonstrating that by enhancing the institutional environment investment can be attracted home.     

Capability and opportunism: Evidence from city officials in China

Opportunism is prevalent in political competition and public policy making. This paper investigates how opportunism is mitigated by capabilities among city leaders in China. Taking advantage of China’s institutional setup with ample bureaucratic transfers, the paper estimates leaders’ capabilities as their personal contributions to local economic growth. The paper finds strong evidence of political business cycles – a typical form of political opportunism – as manifested by a significant boost in the growth rate preceding the Communist Party’s national congress. However, more capable leaders are found to generate more modest political business cycles than less capable ones do. The findings suggest that, to the extent that political selections are associated with the long term reputation of officials, career-concerned opportunism is at least partially moderated by the selection of capable officials in China. The paper provides supportive evidence for the reputation model of political business cycles as well as enriches the study of government officials in weak institutional environments.     

‘More is different’, exaptation and uncertainty: three foundational concepts for a complexity theory of innovation

Universities are engaging in more licensing and patenting activities than ever before, and the amount of research funded by industry is increasing. Academics’ commercialization activities may inhibit traditional academic scholarship. If the output of such scholarship is an important input into technological innovation and economic growth, then such an inhibition would be cause for concern. We introduce new instruments and techniques and demonstrate them using a novel panel dataset of academic electrical engineers from Stanford University. We find no evidence that engaging in inventive activity reduces the quantity of scientific output and some evidence that it increases its quality.     

Ex post adaptations and hybrid contracts in software development services

We follow the recent literature on ex post adaptations in procurement and argue that highly volatile specifications result in multiple variations of fixed price (FP) and time and materials (T&M) contracts. Specifically, placing a cap on specification change in FP contracts prevents specification volatility, similar to the way that placing a cap on the price in T&M contracts prevents price escalation. We argue that these hybrid mechanisms are particularly important in software development contracting, a new critical business capability involving frequent and costly ex post adaptations to specification change. The level of completeness in these contractual archetypes is hypothesized to be determined by contracting costs and benefits, where costs are related to project uncertainty and benefits are related to the likelihood of vendor opportunism. We test this hypothesis with a unique data set of 270 software development contracts entered into by a leading international bank. The analysis confirms the existence of multiple hybrid contracts that mitigate both price escalation and specification volatility. It also shows that contracting costs and benefits explain more variance in contract choice when these hybrids are included, uncovering the detailed mechanisms used to curb opportunism when the vendor is less familiar to the client.     

中国上市公司会计政策选择研究

中国上市公司会计政策选择存在很多问题,主要有：选择权的失衡及存在机会主义倾向选择的随意性大且形式单一,未实现整体利益的最大化。由于诸多因素的存在,会计政策的选择行为是必然存在的,如果不采取措施加以防范,上市公司利用会计政策进行盈余管理在所难免。对于会计政策,关键是防止过度滥用,尽量减少诱发滥用的动机,规范其选择行为。     

Socially excessive dissemination of patent licences

Abstract .  Compared with the social optimum, a monopolist usually sells too little. This result seemingly includes the case of a lab that licences its patented cost innovation: Katz and Shapiro (1986) find 'conditions under which [the lab] will issue fewer than the socially optimal number of licences.' However, I find instead that its incentives can be socially too high; the monopoly seller may sell too much. For example, it can be profit maximizing to sell several licences, while it is socially optimal that none is sold.     

Second-best theory and the use of multiple policy instruments

In many cases policy makers employ multiple instruments to address a single environmental problem, but much of the economics literature on instrument choice focuses on comparing properties of single policy instruments. We argue that under a fairly broad set of circumstances the use of multiple policy instruments can be justified as optimal in a second-best world. We examine two broad categories of second-best policy making: cases with multiple market failures only some of which can be corrected at any one time; and cases with exogenous (often political) constraints that cannot be removed. The fact that the use of multiple policy instruments can be justified economically in these two cases does not imply, however, that all multiple instruments employed in actual practice are economically justified.     

Licensing to a durable-good duopoly in patent litigation

Incorporating patent litigation into a durable-good duopoly model, we revisit the optimal licensing contract on a cost-reducing innovation. We find that both the optimal licensing contract and the innovator's licensing revenue are closely related to the patent's strength, i.e., the probability it would be found valid if tested in court. It is shown that, for a relatively weak patent (patent's strength is low), it's optimal for the innovator to charge the royalty rate as high as possible coupled with a negative fixed fee. But for a relatively strong patent (patent's strength is high), contract involving the combination of a medium level royalty rate and a positive fixed fee is optimal. We also discuss how the patent's strength affects the social welfare of a patent. Finally we present two policy suggestions that may alleviate the social welfare loss raised by the licensing of weak patents.