出口国技术水平与进口国知识产权保护的互动效应对出口国出口贸易的影响——基于中国出口贸易的实证

利用2007—2014年中国对112个国家出口贸易的面板数据,实证研究了中国技术水平、进口国知识产权保护及两者的交互效应对中国出口贸易的影响。结果显示:中国技术水平与高收入进口国知识产权保护的交互效应对中国出口贸易的影响显著为负,而与低收入进口国知识产权保护的交互效应的影响并不显著。这说明,中国出口产品技术水平的提升,对高收入进口国企业的威胁加大,迫使其建立更严苛的贸易壁垒,抑制中国企业出口。     

ENDING RESTRICTIONS TO MIGRATION FROM THE NEW EU MEMBER COUNTRIES: SECTORAL TRADE AND REAL WAGE EFFECTS

Most EU-15 countries have kept restrictions to migration from the new member countries but committed to removing them within seven years from the 2004 enlargement. This article predicts the sectoral trade and real wage impact on high-income, mid-income, and low-income members of removing those restrictions, given two extreme scenarios: either all migrants are skilled or all are unskilled. The main effect of skilled migration is the relocation of high-scale economy, skill-intensive industries from mid-income into high-income countries. The main effect of unskilled migration is the relocation of low-scale economy, low skill-intensive industries from low-income into mid-income countries. Both high-income and low-income members would be better off with skilled migration, but those with mid-income would benefit from unskilled migration. ( JEL F1, F15, F22, J31, L6)     

Country terms of trade: trends,unit roots,over-differencing,endogeneity, time dummies,and heterogeneity

The debate about the Prebisch-Singer thesis has focused on primary commodities with some extensions to manufactures. We analyse trends in country terms-of-trade for goods and services rather than those for commodities according to the World Bank income classification. We find that the natural logarithm of the terms of trade for all groups except for the poorest has common unit roots, but none has individual unit roots. As low-income countries have no unit roots over-differencing is inefficient and biases significance levels in first differences against the fall in the terms of trade. For the low-income countries the terms of trade of goods and services are falling at a rate that is significantly negative without and with endogeneity treatment by system GMM. A comprehensive analysis of the effects of time dummies supports the result of falling terms of trade for low-income countries. When all coefficients are country-specific 50% of all low-income countries have falling terms of trade in a simultaneous equation estimation using the SUR method. Food and financial crisis have no effect on the number of countries with falling terms of trade, but (dis-)improve the terms of trade or the significance of the results for a very small number of countries.     

Does one size fit all? The impact of cognitive skills on economic growth

This paper tests for heterogeneous effects of cognitive skills on economic growth across countries. Using a new extended dataset on cognitive skills and controlling for potential endogeneity, we find that the magnitude of the effect is about 60% higher for low-income countries compared to high-income countries, and it more than doubles when low TFP countries are compared to high TFP countries. There are also marked differences across geographic regions. Using data on the share of the population with advanced and minimum skill levels, our results also indicate that high-income countries should focus on increasing the number of high skilled human capital, while countries from Sub-Saharan Africa would benefit more by investing in the development of basic skills.     

Tariff bindings and bilateral cooperation on export cartels

Despite the negative international externalities that they generate, export cartels are legal in many countries. We use a repeated game approach to analyze cooperation between a low-income country (LIC) and its high-income country (HIC) trade partner where the HIC agrees to prevent its industry from organizing as an export cartel in return for a combination of improved market access (i.e. a tariff reduction) and a transfer from the LIC. If the LIC is subject to a tariff binding (say because of an existing trade agreement), the transfer it pays to the HIC increases and the scope for bilateral cooperation declines.     

The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

Global temperatures have increased at a historically unprecedented pace. This paper finds that the negative effect of temperature on output in countries with hot climates runs through reduced investment, depressed labor productivity, poorer human health, and lower agricultural and industrial output. We find that hot low-income countries suffer the largest costs. In a median low-income country, aggregate output is about 2 percent lower and investment is about 10 percent lower seven years after a 1 degree increase in average annual temperature. We also find that economic development, in general, helps to shield countries from temperature shocks, with hot regions in high-income countries on average sustaining less economic damage from rising temperatures than hot regions in low-income countries.     

Capital account openness and early warning system for banking crises in G20 countries

This paper develops an early warning system for banking crises in the G20 countries, with the inclusion of capital account openness indicators. Results suggest that the capital account openness demonstrates a significant predictive power on systemic banking crises, and the impact is related with the level of the economic development. For low-income countries, increased capital account openness has a significantly negative impact on the banking crises likelihoods, while for high-income countries it imposes a positive impact. For middle-income countries, however, the occurrence of banking crises is more indifferent to capital account liberalization.     

On the Causality between Trade Credits and Imports: Evidence and Possible Implication for Trade Penalties on Debt Defaults

Abstract

This study investigates the association between trade credits and imports of developing countries. Made available by its creditors, the main function of trade credits is to facilitate cross-border transactions of goods and services. This study finds that the reliance of imports on trade credits varies across regions and income: towards the end of the 1990s, the trade credits to imports ratio ranged from 0.20 for East Asia & the Pacific to 0.87 for Africa, and from 0.24 for high-income countries to 0.79 for low-income countries. Applying panel and cross-country estimation, we find that past trade credits help predict current imports, but past imports do not alter the future path of trade credits. Further, the positive association between trade credits and imports is larger for countries more dependent upon trade credits. The findings support the notion that countries make debt repayments to avoid any potential disruption on the line of trade credits. We also find that the trade credits penalty could materialize within less than two quarters.     

Immigration vs. poverty: Causal impact on demand for redistribution in a survey experiment

We investigate how demand for both the financing and the provision of redistributive policies is affected by information about immigration and poverty. Information about immigration has a positive impact on desired tax progressivity among low-income respondents and a negative one among higher income earners. Information about poverty has no impact. On the provision side, middle- and high-income respondents increase desired public education expenditure in response to poverty, while low-income respondents reduce desired education spending in response to immigration. These heterogeneities are consistent with protectionist reactions to immigration and poverty.     

2006年全球创业概述与理论分析

2006年全球创业概况是：中等收入发展中国家比高收入发达国家呈现出更为旺盛的创业精神,高收入发达国家在早期创业转化率方面以及在产业领域中创业的表现更为出色;男性比女性更富有创业的主动性;中国与印度的创业活动得到进一步发展,创业环境得到改善;高收入发达国家在创业者的教育程度方面仍然保持优势。因此,保持早期创业的发生率优势,鼓励妇女参与创业,提高创业者教育水平,改善创业环境,促进早期创业转化以及改善产业领域中创业的表现是中等收入发展中国家应该采用的措施。     

Moving to autarky,trade creation and home market effect: an exhaustive analysis of regional trade agreements in Africa

This article analyses the effects of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) on bilateral trade in Africa. A structural gravity equation is estimated over the period 1955–2014. The overall effect of RTAs on African trade is strong, but depending on the nature of the RTAs, there is a decreasing impact over time. While Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs) still favour trade in Africa, there was no trade creation coming from Free Trade Agreements between 1990 and 2014. However, the provisions of RTAs do not have a negative impact on trade: agreements that include behind-the-border policies do not significantly deter bilateral trade. To explain the declining impact of RTAs, we look at their redistributive impact between members states. There is no evidence that large countries disproportionally export diversified goods due to RTAs (no ‘home effect’). Countries with a good international network (‘hub effect’) benefited more than other countries of RTAs between 1955 and 1990 but this is however less true on the most recent period (1990–2014).     

Dynamics between energy,output, openness and financial development in sub-Saharan African countries

This study aims to establish the connection between energy use, economic output, financial development and trade, based on the panel data of 15 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during the period from 1983 to 2010. One full main panel and two subpanels were created by incorporating low-income and middle-income countries. The panel cointegration test results indicate a long-run relationship between the variables. The mean group (MG) estimators show that energy consumption, financial development, capital and international trade have significant impacts on economic output. In the case of middle-income countries, the Granger causality analysis reveals that rising economic output leads to higher energy consumption, but this is not true vice versa. This means that energy conservation measures are unlikely to have adverse impacts upon economic output. On the other hand, there is a complementary relationship between financial development and energy consumption. In this case, energy conservation measures should be critically analysed and implemented, so as not to have an unfavourable impact on financial development. In regard to low-income economies, there is no relationship between energy use and any of the other variables mentioned. Thus, a reduction in energy consumption has little or no significant impact on output, financial development, capital and trade.     

Trade-creation and trade-diversion effects of regional trade arrangements: low-income countries

Although the number of regional trade arrangements (RTAs) among the lowest-income developing countries is surging, the literature on their welfare effects is still scarce, and the few that exist fail to provide conclusive results. Furthermore, these RTAs are dominated by countries with a small share of total exports destined for intraregional trade flows. Our study focuses on the welfare effects of RTAs (pertaining to trade creation and trade diversion) among this group of countries. We use a theoretically justified gravity model to estimate welfare effects, focusing on trade creation and trade diversion and deviating from the norm in related studies, accounting for heterogeneity in third countries. Using ECOWAS as a sample, we estimate welfare effects on 1992–2012 annual bilateral imports for 14 countries from 169 countries. Contrary to conventional expectations in the literature, we find that economic integration among small and relatively low-income countries that have a small share of total trade with each other is welfare-improving for the members as a group, for the majority of the individual member countries, and for some third countries. Accounting for heterogeneity in third countries reveals that an RTA among low-income countries has a particularly robust trade-creation effect.     

An empirical characterization of the effects of public debt on economic growth

Based on a data set of 115 economies, this article empirically investigates the relation between public debt and economic growth. Using the World Bank’s classification for income groups, we initially find that those countries that present the lowest public debt are characterized by the highest economic growth, while the smallest growth rates are associated with the highest public debt. Nevertheless, this conclusion is tempered when we analyse the countries by income level: low-income countries have a different behaviour with respect to lower-middle, upper-middle and high-income countries. When using the IMF’s country classification, the results do not suggest a clear pattern in the public debt–economic growth nexus across different countries, but indicate a heterogeneous relationship between such key macroeconomic variables.     

A flying goose chase: China’s overseas direct investment in manufacturing (2011–2013)

This paper examines whether rising wages have driven Chinese manufacturers to make foreign direct investment abroad to reduce the costs of production. We match the Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s register of Overseas Direct Investments with China’s Industrial Enterprise Survey data from 2011 to 2013 and annual average wage data for prefecture-level cities. Although high-income developed economies are the preferred destinations for Chinese manufacturing investment abroad, labor-intensive light manufacturing sectors related to the textiles, clothing and leather industries are focused on the low-income countries – consistent with a ‘flying goose’ effect. But, these are only a small part of the Chinese investment – account for 6% of the number of matched official ODI registrations. Yet, it might be still too early to observe that rising factor prices are systematically driving investments offshore.     

Regional income convergence in Indochina 1970–2015?

Real incomes have been increasing relatively fast in the Indochina region but there are still large differences in income levels between the six member countries. Based on the various sources of national accounts data, it seems that the low-income countries have experienced the highest growth rates. Time series tests of convergence, in this case catching-up to the relatively high-income level in Malaysia, confirm that Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam have narrowed the income gap during the last two decades.     

Spillovers to low-income countries: importance of systemic emerging markets

This article documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of ‘Emerging Market (EM) leaders’ that have become major players in international trade and financial flows. VAR models show that these linkages have increased the share of growth volatility that can be attributed to foreign shocks in LICs. Dynamic panel models further analyse the impact of LIC trade orientation and production structure on the sensitivity to foreign shocks. The empirical results demonstrate that the elasticity of growth to trading partners’ growth is high for LICs in three out of the five regions: Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Central Asia. However, for commodity-exporting LICs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, terms of trade shocks and demand from the EM leaders are the main channels of transmission of foreign shocks     

Low-wage import competition and populist backlash: The case of Italy

This paper studies empirically the role of trade globalization in shifting the electoral base towards populism. We proxy the trade shock with swiftly rising import competition from China and compare voting patterns at the national parliamentary elections from 1992 to 2013 in about 8000 Italian municipalities differently exposed to the trade shock. We instrument import competition from China with Chinese export flows to other high-income countries and estimate the model in first differences. Our results indicate that trade globalization increases support for populist parties, as well as invalid votes and abstentionism. To rationalize these findings, we offer evidence that import competition worsens local labor market conditions – higher unemployment, lower income and durable consumption – and increases inequality. Finally, we point out that local public expenditure may play a role in mitigating the political consequences of the trade shock, arguably because it alleviates economic distress.     

Exploring GDP growth volatility spillovers across countries

This study takes a portfolio approach to investigate GDP growth volatility spillovers among 120 countries of the world during the 1960–2017 period. Based on the ratios of growth rate to standard deviation, we rank these countries in pools of high-, midsize-, and low-income growth. Using a spillover index that is based on variance decompositions under a vector autoregressive framework, we analyze the sources of growth volatility dynamics in the world in terms of volatility proportions from and to others. We find that high-income growth countries are net transmitters, while low-income growth countries are net recipients of growth volatility. We also find that it takes several years for low-income growth countries to absorb growth shocks of global nature. Overall, our analyses illustrate the importance of partnership in risk sharing as it is related to portfolio strategies and risk management.     

Has the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle waned? Evidence from time series and dynamic panel data analysis

This objective of this paper is to examine the Feldstein-Harioka puzzle by using both time series analysis that accommodates structural breaks, and dynamic panel error-correction method. Our sample consists of 118 countries over the period 1981–2013. Results from ARDL model suggest that long-run capital is highly mobile in high-income countries (HIC), moderately mobile for both middle- and low-income countries. Our finding of the low long-run saving coefficient for HICs shows that failure to account for a structural break may overstate the long-run saving coefficient. Findings from the pooled mean group estimators suggest that capital is moderately mobile in the middle-income countries, and highly immobile in the high- and low-income countries in the long run. Our findings highlight that ignoring structural break, the type of data (time series/panel), and econometric method used can affect the conclusion about capital mobility. The adjustment coefficient in the time series analysis is comparatively higher than the panel data analysis. We also test whether country size and openness affect the saving–investment correlation. While the effect of country size on the saving coefficient is mixed, the saving estimate is found to be a function of the degree of openness. We also discuss policy implications of our findings on the current account sustainability.