Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: the case of Brexit

ABSTRACT

This study assesses the impact of the Brexit probability on both the UK and on international financial markets, for the first and the second statistical moments. As financial markets are by nature highly interlinked, one might expect that the uncertainty engendered by Brexit also has an impact on financial markets in several other countries. We first estimate the time-varying interactions between UK policy uncertainty, which to a large extent is attributed to uncertainty about Brexit and UK financial market volatilities. Second, we use two other measures of the perceived probability of Brexit before the referendum, namely daily data released by Betfair and results of polls published by Bloomberg. Based on these data sets, and using both panel and single-country SUR estimation methods, we analyse the Brexit effect on levels of stock returns, sovereign CDS, 10-year interest rates in 19 predominantly European countries, and those of the British pound and the euro. We show that Brexit-induced policy uncertainty will continue to cause instability in key financial markets and has the potential to damage the real economy in both the UK and other European countries. The main losers outside the UK are the ‘GIIPS’ economies: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain.     

Brexit and the Politics of UK Growth Models

Brexit has reopened and repoliticised the debate about future growth models for the UK economy. This contribution argues that this debate is built around historically specific path dependencies that reflect the particular character of public debate about British political economy, while also suggesting that the debate around Brexit takes place at a very distinctive moment in the history of democratic capitalism in Europe. This combination gives the renewed politicisation a specific and perhaps perverse character. The paper considers how we should approach debates about growth models, paying particular attention to the importance of the politics of support. It suggests that recent debate about growth models has been largely subsumed within the politics of Brexit, which has politicised that debate, albeit through the emergent political economy frames that Brexit has provoked. The paper explores the ways in which the demise of three key props of European democratic capitalism – a sustained period of economic growth, a governing philosophy that subordinated the market to wider social purposes and strong political parties – play out in the context of Brexit and the search for a new politics of support.     

Finance,power, and the British balance of payments

ABSTRACT

The Brexit referendum marks a critical juncture in Britain’s political economy. Benjamin Cohen argues that a nation’s monetary sovereignty lies in its balance of payments (BoP) flexibility (2008, 2015). I argue that a country’s position in the global financial régime must also be accounted for when explaining its BoP dynamics. This allows us to understand why, while sterling has long lost its ‘world currency’ status, Britain’s BoP exhibits some of the same features associated with American ‘exorbitant privilege’. To appreciate the UK’s own BoP flexibilities as well as to flesh out the Anglo-American axis in the international financial order, I compare the UK’s external balance sheets with those of the US. Given the complexities and uncertainties inherent in BoP analyses, I advise against micro-analyses of the BoP in favour of a broader approach that takes into account macro-dynamics as well as the International Political Economy (IPE) concerns outlined above. Elaborating such an analysis for the UK BoP, I explore the potential implications of Brexit for Britain’s external balance sheets and its political-economic future. While Britain’s financial power has helped insulate its balance sheets from external shocks, Britain’s impending departure from the European Union heralds a period of considerable uncertainty.     

关于经营城市、经营城市土地与营销城市的再认识

经营城市与营销城市是近年来我国推进城市化过程中出现的新理念,成为政府部门、学者专家们热切关注的重大课题。笔者对经营城市尤其是经营城市土地与营销城市进行了分析并提出了相应对策。     

A New Viewpoint of Improving the Competitive Power of the City-The Entrepreneurial City

In2003,Shanghai was chosen as the most potential en-trepreneurial city in the world by Forbes.Then the term of"the Entrepreneurial City"has drawn the attention of thegovernment and so many scholars.In resent years,"theEntrepreneurial City"is a new word in…     

提升城市竞争力的新视点--企业家城市

In resent years the entrepreneurial city is a new popular concept in the field of the economy and the development of the western cities. At present the scholars of our country just begin to research about it. This essay tries to analyze the connotation and the function of the entrepreneurial city, and also analyzes the function and the mechanism of the improvement of the Competitiveness of the city.     

The Political Economy of Brexit and the Future of British Capitalism First Symposium

The political economy of Brexit generates new challenges for the UK’s national business model and for European capitalism more broadly. Two symposia examine the implications of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU in key economic policy areas. These symposia contribute to two main bodies of academic literature: the political economy literature on varieties of capitalism, with a specific focus on the UK, and the political economy literature on key economic policy areas of the EU. This short introduction to the first symposium first outlines the key features of the British variety of capitalism and highlight the main questions raised by Brexit in that respect. It then summarises the main findings of the papers of the first symposium and tease out some common themes.     

金融生态环境嬗变与区域经济金融发展——基于四川省井研县的实证分析

本文以井研县近10年来的金融生态环境变化和经济金融发展情况为基础，探讨了金融生态环境变化对经济金融发展的影响，并总结了该县金融生态环境建设的初步效果和经验。     

基于区域物流金融的第三方物流服务创新浅析

进入新世纪以来,中国区域物流金融服务在国内发展迅速,成为物流企业和金融行业共同关注的焦点领域。从区域物流金融业务的发展以及现状进行分析,以＂物流、信息流、资金流相结合＂为导向提出创新建议,以供借鉴。     

浅谈金融创新与金融风险管理

中国金融业已全面对外开放,中资银行要与外资银行展开全面的合作与竞争,金融业必须加大金融创新的力度.当前金融创新呈现出新的趋势和特点:金融监管的自由化与国际化、金融业务多元化、金融交易电子化、金融产品复杂化、金融服务个性化及金融机构同质化.在金融创新同时,也产生了新的金融风险,要加强对金融风险的管理,保证金融稳定,促进金融创新,提高中国金融业的国际竞争力.     

武汉城市圈生产性服务业对制造业效率提升作用的实证

采用武汉城市圈9个城市2000--2009年的面板数据,并结合影响制造业效率的其他经济变量,运用计量模型检验了武汉城市圈生产性服务业对制造业效率的提升作用。结果表明：生产性服务业的发展对武汉城市圈制造业生产率具有明显的正向提升效应,资本有机构成提高对武汉城市圈制造业生产率也有明显的促进作用,但劳动者素质和技能水平及外商直接投资作用不明显。最后,提出了进一步增强生产性服务业对武汉城市圈制造业效率提升作用的政策建议。     

基于SWOT分析的金融强国战略研究

随着经济全球化、经济金融化、金融全球化和金融自由化的迅猛发展,金融问题已不仅是21世纪世界各国经济与社会发展稳定必须首先慎重处理的战略性问题,而且是大国在全球范围内彼此竞争、争夺和博弈的主战场。运用SWOT方法分析了中国相对于其他主要发达国家、发展中国家在金融业的优势与劣势以及面临的机遇与挑战,认为当务之急是应树立金融强国战略意识,然后有计划、分阶段地逐步实施,从而最终启动金融强国战略。     

增强中转地型批发市场辐射力研究

中转地批发商业一直在中国商品流通中起着举足轻重的作用。但是,随着经济体制的调整和政策环境的变化,原来作为流通体系和市场网络中心的中转地批发业态受到猛烈冲击。只有从经营方式、制度、管理及技术等方面进行全面的创新,增强中转批发市场的辐射力,才能使其更加蓬勃发展。     

知识城市视阈下的城市经济转型与变革研究

知识城市是当今世界有关城市发展的一种最新理念,其宗旨在于发挥利用现有城市的优势,以知识为发展基础,加速城市空间结构的转型及经济增长方式的转变,最终达到实现城市的科学及可持续发展,提升城市参与全球循环的核心竞争力的目标。本文在解析知识城市的内涵的基础上,对我国城市固有的经济、社会的发展状况进行深入挖掘和探讨,研究如何在全球知识城市背景下,通过促进经济增长方式的转变、社会空间网络的重组、产业结构的优化、社会结构的变革,实现城市发展与社会和谐的统一。     

产权制度与财权配置--兼议公司财务治理中的难点与热点问题

文章通过对企业产权的再认识,重新界定了企业财产权属于"他物权"中"用益物权"的一种,是明显与"自物权--所有权"相分离的,公司中的财权在两个层面(自物权和他物权)上均有分布或配置.文中进一步阐述了财权的静态配置与资本结构的动态调整.认为:"财务治理结构"是一种静态的理解,具体表现为财权配置结构和利益关系.它是由两类财务治理主体、多维度的财务治理客体及一系列财务治理中的经济利益关系构成;而"财务治理"则是从动态上看,一方面表现为财权配置中的动态制衡和激励约束机制的形成,另一方面表现为新的债权人和投资人的加入--融资结构的形成以及对现有资本结构的调整和改善.文章第三部分专题讨论了当前在公司财务治理中的热点和难点问题,阐述了笔者关于独立董事、国企财务治理及财务总监制度的若干观点.     

论旅游城市城区森林的经营——以桂林市为例

城区森林往往被称为城市的“绿肺”,对改善城市生态环境、缓解城市热岛效应具有重要的作用。不仅如此,对旅游城市而言,城区森林还是一种重要的旅游资源,对城市旅游发挥着重要的作用。本文界定了城区森林的含义,分析了城区森林在旅游城市中的功能与作用,并以世界旅游名城桂林市为例,探讨了城区森林的经营措施,包括：开展城区森林布局总体规划,实行城区森林分类经营;做好城区造林设计,使森林的防护功能与观赏游憩价值统一;采取各种措施增加城区森林覆盖,充分发挥森林的防护功能;采取近自然的森林配置模式,丰富城区森林的生物多样性;加强森林抚育管理,建设城区高效林业。     

中小企业上市公司财务评价及成长状况分析

本文以深交所中小企业板块27家上市公司为样本，从盈利与成长角度，全面地分析中小企业财务现状。采用横向对比的方法，概述中小企业板块上市公司的财务状况，采用纵向分析的方法，考量中小企业板上市公司成长状况，从财务角度为中小企业的成长研究以厦政府政策制定提供依据。     

金融机构发展物流金融的思路和对策

物流金融是基于物流增值链中的供应商、终端用户、金融机构和物流企业等各方的共同需要所产生和发展的。物流金融的产生和发展离不开金融机构,同时也给现代金融业带来了前所未有的机遇。目前,物流金融在国内处于萌芽时期,各方需要大力发展物流金融以实现多方的共赢。     

基于社会保护视角的农民工城市融入研究——以苏州市吴江区为例

农民工的城市融入是中国社会转型过程中出现的一个重大理论与现实问题。以苏州市吴江区为例,采用问卷调查方法,从就业保护、权益维护、社会保障、心理保护、政治参与五个方面对吴江区农民工城市融入过程中的社会保护状况进行了考察。吴江农民工社会保护做得相对较好的是就业保护、社会保障和农民工权益维护(除工资拖欠外)方面,而在心理保护和政治参与方面不理想。在继续巩固和完善农民工经济社会保护政策的同时,需要重点加强农民工的心理保护工作,提高农民工政治参与度,以促进农民工的城市融入。     

财务控制权配置:目标及实现机制

本文从经济学的角度分析后认为,企业财务控制权配置的目标是集体决策成本、知识成本与代理成本综合权衡的结果,然后以此为基础,对企业财务控制权配置的演变进行了探讨.本文最后还对现代公司财务控制权配置目标的实现途径进行了具体分析,认为财务控制权配置目标的实现不仅需要公司权力机关在形式与实质上的分权与制衡,还需要若干具体的措施与机制.