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1.
    
Seasonality has become a key problem facing the tourist sector, constituting a major threat to sustainable growth, destination image, and loyalty, especially in regard to large‐scale, well‐established destinations. A dynamic model, combining natural and non‐natural explanatory variables, is used for a provincial panel data set over the 2006–2015 period to identify determinants of seasonality for Spain's main markets of origin. We show that the inertia factor, economic variables, and climatic variables are significant. Some of the most interesting results are the identification of common patterns across the main markets of origin. Considering, for example, high temperatures in the low season, our results show that, if they occur in the destination market, they reduce seasonality; in contrast, if they occur in the markets of origin, they increase seasonality.  相似文献   

2.
    
Malaysia has experienced a significant increase in tourist arrivals over the past 10 years. The challenge is to sustain this growth and therefore it is important to understand the factors influencing inbound tourism to Malaysia. This paper investigates the economic and non-economic determinants of international tourist flows to Malaysia using the generalized method of moment. The annual panel data set includes the number of arrivals from 33 countries during the period 2000–2012, and the number of possible explanatory variables. It is found that habit persistence (word of mouth), income, hotel room and political stability have a positive impact on tourism demand for Malaysia. Also, results indicate that the estimated coefficients of substitute tourism price in the model are negative. This implies that the five alternative destinations are complementary destinations to Malaysia. In addition, the dummy variable for Visit Malaysia Year in 2007 and severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003 had positive and negative impacts on tourism demand for Malaysia, respectively.  相似文献   

3.
    
In this study, we propose a dynamic econometric model for tourism demand which takes into account the implications of the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) theory on tourism demand. Unlike other dynamic models, in our specification the effect of the lagged demand on the current tourism demand is not constant, but dependent on congestion. We estimate the model using disaggregated data from the most visited Spanish municipalities for the period 2006–2015. Two panel data estimations are carried out: one with the coastal tourist resorts and the other one with the inland municipalities. The results show that tourism congestion reduces the positive previous tourist effect on current arrivals, suggesting that increasing congestion could worsen the attraction of a tourist destination. Congestion is more negatively perceived in inland destinations than coastal ones. Finally, a strong persistence in tourism demand for coastal destinations is shown.  相似文献   

4.
    
The purpose of the study is to re‐examine the direction of the causal relationship between tourism growth and economic progress. Although a vast literature on the topic is available, the results are still mixed and sample dependent. The study re‐examined the causal relationship using as many as 158 countries and classified them into three groups on the basis of the international tourism receipt relative to the gross domestic product (GDP). On methodological front, the study adopted the new panel causality model of Dumitrescu and Hurlin. Before carrying out the causality test, cross‐sectional dependence and homogeneity tests are implemented because the Dumitrescu and Hurlin test can take both cross‐sectional dependence and heterogeneity into account. The interesting outcome of the study is that the bivariate causal relationship has remained consistent across three subsamples when tourism growth is measured in terms of international tourism receipt and related to the GDP.  相似文献   

5.
This paper uses relatively new heterogeneous panel autoregressive distributed lag cointegration methods to re-examine the long-run equilibrium and Granger causality relationship between tourism and economic growth for the small island developing states (SIDSs). In addition, the study incorporates energy consumption and foreign direct investment (FDI) as alternative growth determinants, during the period 1995–2014. After allowing for the heterogeneous country effect, a positive and statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism, energy consumption, FDI, and gross domestic product, with a moderate convergence rate towards the long-run path is confirmed. The panel Granger causality test as proposed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin [(2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450–1460.] shows bidirectional causality running from tourism to economic growth, from tourism to energy consumption and from energy consumption to economic growth, and unidirectional causality between FDI and tourism, between economic growth and FDI, and between FDI and energy consumption. Our empirical findings provide support for tourism-induced growth, tourism-induced energy consumption, tourism-induced investment, and the energy consumption-economic growth relationship in the case of SIDSs. Our empirical results resonate with the existing findings with major policy implications for the SIDSs.  相似文献   

6.
This paper investigates the impact of migration on Italian inbound tourism flows in a dynamic panel data framework. Arrivals, expenditure and nights from 65 countries are analysed for the period 2005–2011. The migration variable is defined at both origin and destination in order to assess the pushing and pulling forces. Estimates were performed using both aggregated flows and flows disaggregated to separate the visiting friends and relatives (VFRs) from two non-VFR categories, namely holiday and business. The results suggest the presence of a strong migration-tourism nexus, which clearly goes beyond VFRs. Moreover, the effects of the different determinants vary according to the way in which the tourism market is segmented and, within each segment, to the way in which tourism demand is measured.  相似文献   

7.
    
This paper investigates the impact of the depreciation of the euro against the Swiss franc on tourism demand. The data consist of Swiss overnight stays in West Austrian ski resorts during the winter season. Using a panel error correction model, we found that the elasticity of tourism demand with respect to exchange rates is significantly larger than unity in absolute terms. In particular, the real exchange rate elasticity ranges between ?1.5 using the dynamic panel data model and ?2.2 for the long difference regression model. This indicates that Swiss winter tourists are highly sensitive to changes in exchange rates and relative prices. High elevation ski resorts benefit most from the depreciation of the euro against the Swiss franc. For Austrian ski resorts, tentative estimates suggest that the depreciation of the euro against the Swiss franc has led to an additional 173,000 overnight stays over the last four winter seasons.  相似文献   

8.
    
What happens in forecasting problems when high frequency and high spatial detail data encounter significant publication delays? In this paper, we consider a monthly dynamic panel data model, augmented by Google Trends search query volume data, for tourism demand forecasting at high spatial detail, in which one of the main aspects is represented by a publication delay ranging from 8 to 15 months. Some findings in the tourism literature already specify forecasting/nowcasting applications considering a realistic time delay but not for more than 3 months.  相似文献   

9.
    
This study estimates the determinants of domestic and foreign tourism demand using data on 28 Austrian ski resorts for the winter seasons 1986–1987 to 2007–1908. Using the dynamic panel data analysis, we find that the effect of the weather variables (e.g. snow depth, cloudiness or sunshine) is quite small, with a change in one standard deviation of the variation over time in each weather variable, leading to a 2–3 % change in overnight stays. Furthermore, domestic tourists are more sensitive to changes in weather conditions than foreign tourists. By contrast, overnight stays of foreign visitors are much more responsive to changes in income than it is the case for domestic overnight stays. The occurrence of extreme snow‐deficient winters, such as the winter of 2006–2007, in the future period will reduce overnight stays of foreign and domestic visitors by 2 and 5 %, respectively. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
ABSTRACT

This paper examines the effects of the freedom of the press on inbound tourism in 160 countries for the period from 1995 to 2016. By using the fixed-effects, the Hausman–Taylor, and the dynamic panel data estimation techniques, we show that a higher level of the freedom of the press promotes inbound tourism. The main findings are robust to consider the countries at the different income level, the inclusion of the various control variables, using the different measures of the freedom of the press, excluding the outliers, and excluding the observations in the different regions.  相似文献   

11.
Governments provide various forms of financial support for sustaining unprofitable regional airways, especially when such airways are essential to local livelihoods and economies. However, inefficient provision of subsidies has been subject to worldwide criticism. Therefore, this study examines the load factor guarantee, a dynamically interdependent business model for airline-airport coexistence where an airline and an airport agree on the load factor of a flight, after which either party compensates for any discrepancies between the actual and agreed-upon load factor. The model is calibrated by using 2003–2014 data regarding Noto Airport and All Nippon Airways, and system dynamics are employed to model the dynamic interactions between the two parties. The findings show that successful coexistence between an airline and an airport hinges on the integral management of annual negotiations regarding the target load factor and the monthly demand adjustment of subsidies. In addition, although a subsidy represents a temporary financial loss for an airport, it is an effective way of maintaining long-term, airline–airport coexistence. This model is applicable to unprofitable airways worldwide, and it contributes to their sustainable management.  相似文献   

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