Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination

In this paper, we examine the forecast accuracy of linear autoregressive, smooth transition autoregressive (STAR), and neural network (NN) time series models for 47 monthly macroeconomic variables of the G7 economies. Unlike previous studies that typically consider multiple but fixed model specifications, we use a single but dynamic specification for each model class. The point forecast results indicate that the STAR model generally outperforms linear autoregressive models. It also improves upon several fixed STAR models, demonstrating that careful specification of nonlinear time series models is of crucial importance. The results for neural network models are mixed in the sense that at long forecast horizons, an NN model obtained using Bayesian regularization produces more accurate forecasts than a corresponding model specified using the specific-to-general approach. Reasons for this outcome are discussed.     

Holt’s exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series

Interval-valued time series are interval-valued data that are collected in a chronological sequence over time. This paper introduces three approaches to forecasting interval-valued time series. The first two approaches are based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks and Holt’s exponential smoothing methods, respectively. In Holt’s method for interval-valued time series, the smoothing parameters are estimated by using techniques for non-linear optimization problems with bound constraints. The third approach is based on a hybrid methodology that combines the MLP and Holt models. The practicality of the methods is demonstrated through simulation studies and applications using real interval-valued stock market time series.     

About “strategy” and “strategies” in supply management

This article addresses the context and content of a generic supply strategy and discusses its strategy-making process. Building mostly on fundamental strategic management theories, the authors explain the role of supply strategy in its managerial context. In so doing, some light is shed on the meaning and use of the terms “strategy” and “strategies”. Also, a practical conceptual framework for supply strategy formulation is provided. The generic checklist, built by segmenting supply management decisions, is intended to guide supply professionals in addressing strategic issues to create value to customers, avoiding confusion and optimising resource allocation.     

A hybrid method of exponential smoothing and recurrent neural networks for time series forecasting

This paper presents the winning submission of the M4 forecasting competition. The submission utilizes a dynamic computational graph neural network system that enables a standard exponential smoothing model to be mixed with advanced long short term memory networks into a common framework. The result is a hybrid and hierarchical forecasting method.     

Circular business models for sustainable development: A “waste is food” restorative ecosystem

Our aim is to provide a better understanding of a business model based on circular principles. In particular, we focus on two issues that support the development of a circular business model: (a) the focal actor as orchestrator of the circular network and (b) the circular ecosystem encompassing suppliers, customers, research centers, and public authorities, in which each actor/stakeholder plays a specific role, based on effective interorganizational relationships. The research method applied is an in‐depth nested single case study of a circular project. Our results highlight an exemplar case of an ecosystemic business model in agriculture, involving different types of innovation and strong collaboration among network members, orchestrated by a focal firm. The abductive approach used led to the formulation of some research propositions and to the identification of some adoption factors and barriers to growth in circular business models.     

Repugnance for “menial jobs”

A man's sense of well-being and meaningfulness in work is not so much a matter of external circumstances—the kind of job he has—as it is of his deepdown belief that he is a worthy human being. If he lacks that, any job can seem dissatisfying and “menial.” Executives may suffer from this (or related behaviors) as much as assembly-line workers.     

Reply to “Modeling Managerial Altruism,CSR, and Donations: A Comment”

We point out that the main concern of this comment is on the assumptions about “managerial compensation” and “who should make the donation decision for the firm”.     

“Want to” Versus “Have to”: Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivators as Predictors of Compliance Behavior Intention

“Worthless,” “money burning,” or “black holes” is how media and professionals describe compliance practices today. Practitioners are unenthusiastic about control systems, codes of conducts, and systems for compliance management that are increasing in volume but not in effectiveness. In order to help practitioners clarify what actually makes employees comply with their compliance program, this study examines intrinsic and extrinsic motivators of 119 employees from procurement and sales. We contribute to the existing motivation literature, testing the self‐determination theory in low and high hierarchical levels. Our findings show that intrinsic motivators are more strongly and positively related to compliance intention on higher hierarchical levels than the lower ones. However, employees from higher hierarchies show overall less compliance intention than employees from lower hierarchies. © 2015 The Authors. Human Resource Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

“A GEM” for increasing the effectiveness of diversity training

Questions about diversity training's utility and effectiveness remain despite its widespread use and the significant investments many firms make in such training. As a result, some HR practitioners have doubts about its relevance in the workplace. In this paper, we envision a future state of diversity training whereby diversity is embedded into work practices and programs through direct knowledge transfer, continuous skill development, and accountability for learning. We recommend four specific guidelines that HR leaders can follow to achieve this “future state” called A.G.E.M.—Approach, Goals, Executive Commitment, and Mandatory Attendance. We suggest that following the A.G.E.M. approach will lead to the kind of transformative behavioral changes required for effective diversity training programs.     

“Offshoring”: How big an issue?

Spurred by the political debate in the US and several high-profile corporate moves, "offshoring" has become a lively topic of discussion. This paper by Grant Colquhoun, Keith Edmonds and David Goodger tries to put recent developments in context and argues that "offshoring" should be seen as part of a long-standing and largely beneficial trend of international specialisation. In the short term at least, the transfer of service sector activities abroad is likely to involve relatively small numbers of jobs when compared to overall UK employment and labour market turnover. However, specific areas — such as call centres, back office functions and software programming — are expected to be increasingly affected, impacting upon regions of the UK with heavy exposure to those activities and giving rise to adjustment costs. In contrast, retailing, hotels and catering and personal services could well benefit from the move of low value-added jobs abroad. Overall, the impact of "offshoring" on the UK economy in terms of output and productivity should be positive.     

Management Changes,Reputation, and “Big Bath”—Earnings Management

We study the effects of managerial turnover on earnings management activities in a model in which managers care about their external reputation. We develop an overlapping generations model showing that both outgoing and incoming managers bias reported earnings such that typically very low returns are reported in the first period after a manager has been replaced. Outgoing managers shift earnings forward to their last period in office as they will not benefit from earnings realized after that. Incoming managers can have an incentive to shift earnings to the second period in office as reported earnings will, immediately after a management change, only be partly attributed to their own ability. Deferred compensation can reduce incentives for earnings management.