中日资源与环境技术预见比较研究

近年来,技术预见研究成为国际热点。当前,在我国开展技术预见研究,不仅是参与国际竞争和建设创新型国家的需要,而且是国家制定科技发展战略和科技政策的重要基础。对中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目"中国未来20年技术预见研究"中资源与环境技术领域的德尔菲调查进行了概要介绍,并与日本第7次技术预见相关内容(包括子领域划分、课题数量分布、重要程度综合得分前10位课题分布、技术预见活动问卷发放和回函情况等)进行了比较研究,并得出了一些初步结论。     

技术预见活动所体现的科学发展观——以《中国未来20年技术预见研究》为例

简述了技术预见活动在全球的开展情况,以《中国未来20年技术预见研究》为例,介绍了技术预见活动的步骤和使用方法,分析了技术预见活动过程所体现的科学发展观。     

基于预见评估的下一代技术预见

随着技术预见影响力的扩大,预见评估的重要性日益显现。以预见评估为切入点,分析、展望了下一代技术预见的发展趋势及特点,以期为当代技术预见研究工作的开展提供借鉴。     

上海市生物技术领域技术预见的实证研究

为了把握上海未来科技发展形势,上海市科学技术委员会开展了技术预见,运用德尔菲法,针对信息技术、生物技术、新材料和先进制造技术领域的未来发展趋势设计了调查问卷,向相关专家发放。以生物技术领域的技术预见为例,采用相关分析法、聚类分析法对回收的两轮问卷信息进行了深入分析。通过对上海市技术预见整个过程的实证研究,拓展了技术预见中信息整理、信息挖掘的方法体系,为我国开展本土化的技术预见提供参考。     

TT领域知识产权纷争与我国技术预见的推行

通过中国加入WTO前后跨国公司对我国企业开展的知识产权纷争典型案例的分析，提出要加强应对知识产权纷争的必要性和紧迫性，然后从理论和实践上分析了以技术预见应对知识产权纷争的可行性，最后提出我国技术预见在推行和应对知识产权纷争过程中应注意的若干问题。     

强化知识产权保护与南北双赢

传统观点认为,强知识产权保护有利于北方国家而有损于南方国家。本文构建一个两期技术转移模型,说明在一定条件下,南方国家会自愿加强知识产权保护,并实现南北双赢。假设北方企业拥有两种技术,即传统技术和先进技术。若南方的知识产权保护太弱,北方企业可能会因为害怕被模仿而策略性延迟引入先进技术,导致南方国家受损。此时,南方政府将有积极性自愿加强知识产权保护以防止北方企业采用延迟策略,而模型分析表明,最优的知识产权保护力度是南方企业模仿能力的倒U型函数。进一步,如果是否拥有先进技术是北方企业的私人信息,南方政府将更不愿意采用严格的知识产权保护制度,因而消除信息不对称有利于南方国家自愿强化知识产权保护。     

IT领域知识产权纷争与我国技术预见的推行

通过中国加入WTO前后跨国公司对我国企业开展的知识产权纷争典型案例的分析,提出要加强应对知识产权纷争的必要性和紧迫性,然后从理论和实践上分析了以技术预见应对知识产权纷争的可行性,最后提出我国技术预见在推行和应对知识产权纷争过程中应注意的若干问题。     

行动者网络理论视角下的技术预见模型演进与展望

在行动者网络理论视角下,打破主客体二分法来分析技术预见模型的演进：第一代技术预见行动者主要是科技、政府和专家;第二代行动者新加入市场,使专家的外延扩大化;第三代行动者包含公众和社会。市场和政府、公众与专家、社会与科技作为行动者具有广义上的对称性和能动性,他们使用不同的技术预见方法和理论进行转译链接,共同构建发展的、不断演进的和稳健的行动者网络;第四代技术预见需要关注环境行动者的地位,在全球低碳科技的大背景下,应重点关注各国政府对环境代理者角色的争夺。     

技术预见与我国科技自主创新能力研究

21世纪,科学技术正步入一个前所未有的创新密集时代,自主创新能力成为国家竞争力的关键。在我国开展技术预见活动就是从未来10年～20年发展需要和具体国情出发,选择那些对经济发展、社会进步和国防安全具有关键作用的重大技术予以优先发展、推广和应用,使技术预见成为我国制定科技发展规划和科技战略的有效工具,从根本上提升我国的自主创新能力。     

河北省技术预见现状及对策研究

技术预见能够有效地预测未来技术发展趋势,提高科技创新能力,促进产业升级。国内外相继开展技术预见活动,而河北省的技术预见活动刚刚起步。针对于此,首先概述了技术预见活动的主要方法,其次分析了河北省开展技术预见活动的现实意义,接着探讨了河北省技术预见的现况和不足,最后提出河北省开展技术预见的对策建议。     

基于K-means与技术生命周期的技术预见方法研究——以水体净化技术为例

预见水体净化技术发展趋势有助于实现“美丽中国”建设目标。已有技术预见方法缺乏定量客观依据,相关评判指标也不够全面。从Innography数据库检索2008-2019年发布的3552个污水处理技术专利,运用多维标度分析和K均值聚类法,基于专利静态指标分析专利技术发展潜力,采用技术生命周期分析法从动态视角判断每类技术的发展前景。研究发现：①污水与污染物双重回收可持续性技术在多个静态评价指标方面均优于其它技术,且处于从引入期到发展期的过渡阶段,具有较大的发展空间;②以去除特定污染物为目标的功能单一技术已被淘汰,市场开始应用污水处理原理不同的多种技术联合处理方式。据此,提出企业应选择污染物回收率高、二次污染物排放少、整体“净效益”为正的污水处理技术,并采取新旧技术联合处理方式降低企业采用新技术的转换成本。     

Globalization,socio-institutional factors and North–South knowledge diffusion: Role of India and China as Southern growth progenitors

Nexus between income inequality and technology capture is explored in a global CGE model to explore the ricochet effect of technology transmission and its capture. In particular, the model shows that exogenous technology shock from developed North, vehicled via trade, transmits to developing Souths and induces productivity growth. This spillover capture, aided by human capital based adoptive capability, better governance and institution, causes increase in income and welfare and subsequently, leads to decline in income inequality. Dynamism of Southern Engines of Growth – India and China – caused them to emerge as ‘core’ South. Thus, triangular innovation diffusion between dynamic and peripheral South is also simulated to show how the backward or peripheral South could catch up via South–South Cooperation in a declining North–South trends in trade. This accrual of benefits could lead to sustained productivity growth and consequential relief of incidence of poverty in low-income countries.     

Growth in stages

Existing North–South growth models generally ignore the possibility that the South becomes an innovating high-wage country. The present paper presents an analytically tractable North–South growth model in which the North innovates all the time, while the South is at first engaged in imitation and potentially starts to innovate too, later on. Three interesting results emerge from the analysis. First, a perfect foresight growth equilibrium may fail to exist. Second, there may be global indeterminacy in that both convergence to the steady state of the regime with imitation in the South and switching to the regime with innovation in the South represent perfect foresight equilibria. Third, technology policies in the South may have hysteresis effects: a temporary policy may lead the South permanently from imitation-driven to innovation-driven growth.     

Endogenous Imitation and Technology Absorption in a Model of North–South Trade

Abstract

This paper considers the transfer of technology from the North to the South that occurs through trade in high-technology goods and explicitly models the ‘reverse-engineering’ process that allows the South to assimilate new technologies. A key finding of this study is that the South's rate of growth is dictated by the size of the country's human capital, which determines its absorptive capacity and its ability to assimilate knowledge from the North. We find that while a Southern country that is poor in human capital can only imitate, Southern countries that possess sufficiently large human capital endowments, beyond a certain threshold, signal the onset of innovation. We also find that the North enjoys a higher rate of innovation and growth with trade than without. North's gains are the highest when it trades with a human-capital ‘poor’ South, because imitation increases South's demand for Northern intermediates. But trade with the Southern countries that are human capital rich (and therefore involved in innovation), dampens their demand for Northern imports, adversely affecting North's growth. The model predicts growth convergence between the North and a South that is well passed the threshold for innovation.     

The future of the future: Strategic foresight in Latin America

With few differences in timing, future studies in Latin America were initiated with a linear conception of reality. Orchestrated with techniques such as the Delphi, future studies were supported by mathematical principles of probability. Several countries have surpassed this stage while moving into strategic foresight. Strategic foresight analyzes the future as a multiple reality. In other words, it means thinking differently and not reading reality in a linear manner. It means accepting that there is not one future but several futures and that one question could have more than one answer.This change has demanded a shift in mentality. The presence of the disciplines in universities is of vital importance. For example, the Technological Institute of Monterrey (Mexico) and the Universidad Externado de Colombia (Bogota) offer foresight and strategy programs at the graduate level.This article describes how different individuals, groups, agencies and institutions in Latin America have emerged thanks to the support provided by the science and technology governmental agencies of each country. The author provides examples from different countries including Colombia, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Currently, strategic foresight is slowly gaining recognition and acceptance as a compass for productive sectors and as a generator of competitiveness.However, despite the contributions of strategic foresight, Latin American countries, with the exception of some of the above-mentioned countries, have struggled to take off into the future. The role of strategic foresight can become the driving force behind this awakening, if the challenge of linking global trends with local contextualization through scenarios is accepted.     

Technological generalizations and leitbilder—the anticipation of technological opportunities

Recent national technology foresight studies as well as the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University are very much based on “nodes of discussion.” These short statements are called, e.g., topics, issues, or developments. This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development. Key concepts of the article are “technological generalization” and “leitbild.” The topics in the technology foresight Delphi studies can be seen as different kinds of generalizations from already realized technological developments. Leitbild is a German word. Its most general meaning is a guiding image. Like a common vision, a leitbild creates a shared overall goal, offers orientation toward one long-term overall goal, and provides a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. The analysis of leitbilder and emerging technological paradigms might contribute to the construction of topics and issues and to the argumentation processes related to them.     

Booming or emerging? China's technological capability and international collaboration in patent activities

China's economy and technology have experienced astounding growth in the last two decades. The OECD 2005 reports show that China has overtaken the USA to become the world's largest exporter of information and communications technology goods. In order to assess the progress China has made in technology development, this study examines the inventive activities in China and the pattern of international collaborations between China and other major industrialized countries or regions. This study analyzes the patent data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) focusing on joint patent application between China and the eight most inventive OECD countries and two Asian economic entities (South Korea and Taiwan). The results reveal increasing collaborations in inventive activities between China and other major inventive countries over the past decade, and suggest that China's technology capability may have begun to boom along with its fast economic growth.     

区域技术预见的结果评价及其启示

区域技术预见在我国不能得到广泛推广应用的一个重要原因,是实践者没有明确预见活动能为区域发展带来什么样的结果。因此,从分析区域预见活动的投入入手,探讨了区域技术预见可能为区域带来的结果以及对结果的评价,并进一步提出了有效实施区域技术预见的策略,从而为区域实施预见活动提供有益的指导。     

中国嵌入全球价值链对绿色技术创新的影响

在对全球价值链嵌入影响绿色技术创新特质、机理、异质性、滞后性与动态效应进行理论分析的基础上，运用2008-2018年中国内地25个省份面板数据，测度中国各省份全球价值链嵌入对绿色技术创新的影响。结果发现：(1)从全国层面看，绿色技术创新是一个动态演化、循序渐进的过程，嵌入全球价值链对绿色技术创新具有显著促进作用，但这种影响存在逐渐减弱的滞后性；(2)从时间层面看，嵌入全球价值链对绿色技术创新的影响具有显著时间差异性，伴随着中国自主创新水平提升和环境规制力度加大，以及发达国家逆全球化趋势盛行，近年来嵌入全球价值链对绿色技术创新的影响日渐减弱；(3)从地区层面看，嵌入全球价值链对绿色技术创新的影响具有显著地区差异性，中西部地区嵌入全球价值链对绿色技术创新的影响比东部地区更明显。据此，提出进一步优化全球价值链嵌入度、扩大全球价值链溢出效应、缩小不同地区间技术差距等政策建议。