Insights from history: The next great empire

An analysis of the evolution of the phenomenon of Empire is presented, together with some general observations on the nature of empires. It is concluded that empires are becoming more frequent and larger in size. Extrapolation of the results leads to some intriguing speculations about the future.     

Japan as number one?: Social problems of the next decades

Japan's post-war economic success should be seen as situationally as well as culturally determined. As the conditions that prompted the ‘Japanese miracle’ change, a number of problems will emerge in Japanese society; the ageing of the population and the effects of modernization on the attitudes of workers towards their corporate employers will inhibit further economic growth. Western management, searching for the key to the miracle, should take note.     

The great war that never was — 1871–1914

I.F. Clarke concludes his two-part study of the forecasts of future warfare in the half-century before the outbreak of World War I. He argues that the experts failed to foresee trench warfare and the long stalemate on the Western Front, precisely because they were experts, and that the devastating effects of the new military technologies ended the old-style belief in the uninterrupted forward march of mankind.     

Tailored logistics: the next advantage

How many top executives have ever visited with managers who move materials from the factory to the store? How many still reduce the costs of logistics to the rent of warehouses and the fees charged by common carriers? To judge by hours of senior management attention, logistics problems do not rank high. But logistics have the potential to become the next governing element of strategy. Whether they know it or not, senior managers of every retail store and diversified manufacturing company compete in logistically distinct businesses. Customer needs vary, and companies can tailor their logistics systems to serve their customers better and more profitably. Companies do not create value for customers and sustainable advantage for themselves merely by offering varieties of goods. Rather, they offer goods in distinct ways. A particular can of Coca-Cola, for example, might be a can of Coca-Cola going to a vending machine, or a can of Coca-Cola that comes with billing services. There is a fortune buried in this distinction. The goal of logistics strategy is building distinct approaches to distinct groups of customers. The first step is organizing a cross-functional team to proceed through the following steps: segmenting customers according to purchase criteria, establishing different standards of service for different customer segments, tailoring logistics pipelines to support each segment, and creating economics of scale to determine which assets can be shared among various pipelines. The goal of establishing logistically distinct businesses is familiar: improved knowledge of customers and improved means of satisfying them.     

Globalization the next round: Sociological perspectives

The twenty-first century momentum of globalization is markedly different from the twentieth century globalization (a new geography of trade, weaker hegemony, and growing multipolarity) and presents major questions. Is the rise of East Asia, China and India just another episode in the rise and decline of nations, another reshuffling of capitalism, a relocation of accumulation centers without affecting the logics of accumulation? Does it advance, sustain or halt neoliberalism? The rise of Asia is codependent with neoliberal globalization and yet unfolds outside the neoliberal mold. What is the relationship between zones of accumulation and modes of regulation? What are the ramifications for the global inequality? What does sociology contribute to this question?     

Urbanization: the challenge for the next century

This article summarizes a new 1996-97 report from the World Resources Institute, the UN Environmental Program, the UN Development Program, and the World Bank, which describes a future with increased levels of urbanization that were reshaping the physical and social environment. Urbanization increased economic growth and environmental degradation. By the year 2000, 50% of the world population will live in urban areas. Cities are the center of economic activity. Consumption is the highest in cities. Cities produce the most pollution and waste. Three issues are particularly crucial to survival: the water supply, sanitation, and water resource management. Neglect of these and other environmental issues is likely to have important consequences in both developing and developed countries. The greatest growth in urban areas is occurring in developing countries. Cities in developing countries have huge populations living in poverty. The poor in either rural or urban areas are confronted with lack of access to clean water, to sanitation, and to housing. There is overcrowding and exposure to industrial wastes and air pollution. There is a need for policy reform, stronger institutions, and enlightened political leadership. Cities need to improve their environment and to strengthen local government and implement poverty reduction programs. Reform of urban policies must be accompanied by effective urban governance. Community-based approaches are essential. Broad-based support is needed for changes in strategies and practices and for attainment of a more sustainable environment.     

非洲:新一轮投资热点

走出去,已成为中国企业寻找机会、拓展市场的新选择.亚洲和欧美等地,现在基本上都能找到中国企业的印迹,而非洲也正在成为中国企业新的投资热点.据商务部统计,近年来中非贸易高速发展,中非贸易在过去5年增长了近3倍.2005年,中非贸易总额达到397亿美元,同比增长近37%,中国已成为非洲仅次于美国和法国的第三大贸易伙伴,目前在非洲设立的中资企业逾600家.在前不久举办的首届非洲投资论坛上,非洲研究专家和投资非洲的企业家们就中国企业在非洲投资现状、中国企业投资非洲的机遇、非洲招商引资举措及优惠条件以及中国企业在非洲投资的成功经验等做了具有说服力的介绍     

Managing authenticity: the paradox of great leadership

Leaders and followers both associate authenticity with sincerity, honesty, and integrity. It's the real thing--the attribute that uniquely defines great managers. But while the expression of a genuine self is necessary for great leadership, the concept of authenticity is often misunderstood, not least by leaders themselves. They often assume that authenticity is an innate quality--that a person is either genuine or not. In fact, the authors say, authenticity is largely defined by what other people see in you and, as such, can to a great extent be controlled by you. In this article, the authors explore the qualities of authentic leadership. To illustrate their points, they recount the experiences of some of the authentic leaders they have known and studied, including the BBC's Greg Dyke, Nestlé's Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, and Marks & Spencer's Jean Tomlin. Establishing your authenticity as a leader is a two-part challenge. You have to consistently match your words and deeds; otherwise, followers will never accept you as authentic. But it is not enough just to practice what you preach. To get people to follow you, you also have to get them to relate to you. This means presenting different faces to different audiences--a requirement that many people find hard to square with authenticity. But authenticity is not the product of manipulation. It accurately reflects aspects of the leader's inner self, so it can't be an act. Authentic leaders seem to know which personality traits they should reveal to whom, and when. Highly attuned to their environments, authentic leaders rely on an intuition born of formative, sometimes harsh experiences to understand the expectations and concerns of the people they seek to influence. They retain their distinctiveness as individuals, yet they know how to win acceptance in strong corporate and social cultures and how to use elements of those cultures as a basis for radical change.     

Transfer problem dynamics: Macroeconomics of the Franco-Prussian war indemnity

We study the classic transfer problem using the largest historical example, the Franco-Prussian War indemnity of 1871-1873 which saw France transfer to Germany 25% of a year's GDP. A dynamic, two-country model allows for debt finance, supply-side effects, and controls for wartime spending. The model can fit the historical paths of French net exports and the terms of trade. But explaining French output and consumption requires additional shocks. These results illustrate the usefulness of the DSGE approach to the transfer problem and provide striking evidence of the importance of international capital markets in the 19th century.     

After the Supreme Court decision: what's next for reform

A Republican sweep in the November elections could lead to repeal of most of the Affordable Care Act, to be replaced with legislation to achieve limited coverage expansion. A Romney victory and split Congress would likely result in Republicans using their administrative authority to modify or disrupt implementation of the act, with provisions altered or repealed where bipartisan agreement exists. An Obama victory and split Congress would likely result in continued implementation of the act but with a delay to some elements.     

Multinational corporate structures: The next stage

Present multinational structures will become obsolete as a result of political and economic changes including intensified competition. Whether through choice or as the result of external pressures, enterprises are likely to adapt to the changes by adopting, partially or completely, three emerging types of organisational structure-integrated, collaborative, or flexible. The process of adaptation will be determined by a range of influences, from the quickening pace of commercial and technological development to the tightening of business legislation.     

The next forty years : A reprise

The following paper is a republication of the introductory pages to Norman Macrae's book, The Next Forty Years, published by The Economist in 1972. Each year, Norman Macrae, deputy-editor of The Economist, researched and wrote a lengthy survey on a subject about which he claimed little, if any, expert knowledge. In 1971 Macrae tried to turn himself into a business futurologist. Based on interviews with industrialists and using relevant literature about multinational corporations and business, Macrae attempted to forecast the most logical course for international business trends and organization between 1972 and 2012, and especially 1972–1992. Some of his views were highly unconventional, and deliberately so. More than 20 years later, his views still often seem controversial, but are as relevant as ever.     

Alternative space futures: The next quarter-century

Space developments do not exist in a vacuum! The shape of future space activities will depend on a combination of social, economic and political forces, creating the determinants for different patterns of space utilization. Forecasts of alternative space futures can therefore be explored by integrating different scenarios of world development and space trends. Here, alternative world trends are related to the underlying dynamics of space development, in terms of the economic, military and scientific utilization of space. The importance of space as a political issue is thus emphasized, in that the outcomes of policy choices to be made both now and in the future will help shape the social and economic contexts in which space technology will be used in the decades ahead.     

货币战阴影笼罩全球

2010年的货币之争是一波接着一波,岁末因美国的量化宽松政策而引发的的货币战争只是一种延续,之前从第三季度开始,由于美元持续走低引起了各国货币对美元的大幅度升值,从而一场＂货币战争＂的争论沸沸扬扬     

Democracy and risk-based decision-making: the next step in public involvement

Risk assessment has struggled to reconcile public views and opinion with the results of science-based objective assessment. In this paper, we attempt to tease apart subjective and objective considerations that risk management decisions entail. Through the use of examples from the New Zealand Environmental Risk Management Authority, we argue that risk managers need to use quantitative tools in order to develop an objective understanding of the biophysical outcomes of an activity. Decision-making should then enter a phase where democratic methods are used to allow people to weigh these physical outcomes subjectively. We believe allowing subjective democratic decisions, based on objective reality, will help enable risk management to bridge gaps between practitioners and the public.     

Management in central government: The next steps

The Government's response to the latest report from the Efficiency Unit represents a compromise between those who believe that the Civil Service has gone far enough down the management road and the radicals who want even greater reform. Time will tell whether the new structures for providing public services will be better managed than the present centralised system. What is needed now is a new interpretation of the constitutional role of civil servants.