Japan as number one?: Social problems of the next decades

Japan's post-war economic success should be seen as situationally as well as culturally determined. As the conditions that prompted the ‘Japanese miracle’ change, a number of problems will emerge in Japanese society; the ageing of the population and the effects of modernization on the attitudes of workers towards their corporate employers will inhibit further economic growth. Western management, searching for the key to the miracle, should take note.     

Globalization the next round: Sociological perspectives

The twenty-first century momentum of globalization is markedly different from the twentieth century globalization (a new geography of trade, weaker hegemony, and growing multipolarity) and presents major questions. Is the rise of East Asia, China and India just another episode in the rise and decline of nations, another reshuffling of capitalism, a relocation of accumulation centers without affecting the logics of accumulation? Does it advance, sustain or halt neoliberalism? The rise of Asia is codependent with neoliberal globalization and yet unfolds outside the neoliberal mold. What is the relationship between zones of accumulation and modes of regulation? What are the ramifications for the global inequality? What does sociology contribute to this question?     

Managing authenticity: the paradox of great leadership

Leaders and followers both associate authenticity with sincerity, honesty, and integrity. It's the real thing--the attribute that uniquely defines great managers. But while the expression of a genuine self is necessary for great leadership, the concept of authenticity is often misunderstood, not least by leaders themselves. They often assume that authenticity is an innate quality--that a person is either genuine or not. In fact, the authors say, authenticity is largely defined by what other people see in you and, as such, can to a great extent be controlled by you. In this article, the authors explore the qualities of authentic leadership. To illustrate their points, they recount the experiences of some of the authentic leaders they have known and studied, including the BBC's Greg Dyke, Nestlé's Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, and Marks & Spencer's Jean Tomlin. Establishing your authenticity as a leader is a two-part challenge. You have to consistently match your words and deeds; otherwise, followers will never accept you as authentic. But it is not enough just to practice what you preach. To get people to follow you, you also have to get them to relate to you. This means presenting different faces to different audiences--a requirement that many people find hard to square with authenticity. But authenticity is not the product of manipulation. It accurately reflects aspects of the leader's inner self, so it can't be an act. Authentic leaders seem to know which personality traits they should reveal to whom, and when. Highly attuned to their environments, authentic leaders rely on an intuition born of formative, sometimes harsh experiences to understand the expectations and concerns of the people they seek to influence. They retain their distinctiveness as individuals, yet they know how to win acceptance in strong corporate and social cultures and how to use elements of those cultures as a basis for radical change.     

Alternative space futures: The next quarter-century

Space developments do not exist in a vacuum! The shape of future space activities will depend on a combination of social, economic and political forces, creating the determinants for different patterns of space utilization. Forecasts of alternative space futures can therefore be explored by integrating different scenarios of world development and space trends. Here, alternative world trends are related to the underlying dynamics of space development, in terms of the economic, military and scientific utilization of space. The importance of space as a political issue is thus emphasized, in that the outcomes of policy choices to be made both now and in the future will help shape the social and economic contexts in which space technology will be used in the decades ahead.     

Multinational corporate structures: The next stage

Present multinational structures will become obsolete as a result of political and economic changes including intensified competition. Whether through choice or as the result of external pressures, enterprises are likely to adapt to the changes by adopting, partially or completely, three emerging types of organisational structure-integrated, collaborative, or flexible. The process of adaptation will be determined by a range of influences, from the quickening pace of commercial and technological development to the tightening of business legislation.     

The next forty years : A reprise

The following paper is a republication of the introductory pages to Norman Macrae's book, The Next Forty Years, published by The Economist in 1972. Each year, Norman Macrae, deputy-editor of The Economist, researched and wrote a lengthy survey on a subject about which he claimed little, if any, expert knowledge. In 1971 Macrae tried to turn himself into a business futurologist. Based on interviews with industrialists and using relevant literature about multinational corporations and business, Macrae attempted to forecast the most logical course for international business trends and organization between 1972 and 2012, and especially 1972–1992. Some of his views were highly unconventional, and deliberately so. More than 20 years later, his views still often seem controversial, but are as relevant as ever.     

Transfer problem dynamics: Macroeconomics of the Franco-Prussian war indemnity

We study the classic transfer problem using the largest historical example, the Franco-Prussian War indemnity of 1871-1873 which saw France transfer to Germany 25% of a year's GDP. A dynamic, two-country model allows for debt finance, supply-side effects, and controls for wartime spending. The model can fit the historical paths of French net exports and the terms of trade. But explaining French output and consumption requires additional shocks. These results illustrate the usefulness of the DSGE approach to the transfer problem and provide striking evidence of the importance of international capital markets in the 19th century.     

Management in central government: The next steps

The Government's response to the latest report from the Efficiency Unit represents a compromise between those who believe that the Civil Service has gone far enough down the management road and the radicals who want even greater reform. Time will tell whether the new structures for providing public services will be better managed than the present centralised system. What is needed now is a new interpretation of the constitutional role of civil servants.     

货币战阴影笼罩全球

2010年的货币之争是一波接着一波,岁末因美国的量化宽松政策而引发的的货币战争只是一种延续,之前从第三季度开始,由于美元持续走低引起了各国货币对美元的大幅度升值,从而一场＂货币战争＂的争论沸沸扬扬     

Diversity and social progress in the next millennium: an evolutionary perspective

An evolutionary framework for speculating about some of the socio-cultural and genetic diversity issues of the next millennium is developed. Human populations (societies) are basic biological and socio-cultural units. The nature of human societies is shaped by two kinds of linked evolutionary process: biological and socio-cultural. These evolutionary processes, in turn, are driven by human interactions with the physical environment, microorganisms, other species, other human populations, and by technological innovations. Preservation of genetic and socio-cultural diversity is identified as a crucial aspect of social progress over the next millennium. The impact of these ecological and technological ‘drivers of change’ on future evolutionary processes is discussed. While the world's affluent societies will be increasingly liberated from nature's constraints and enriched by technological innovations, it is questionable, given historical experience, whether poorer ones will share in the prosperity. Significant innovations in socio-cultural evolution, including new forms of governance, will be required to harness the accelerating forces of change and to ensure future social progress for all peoples.     

传媒产业,下一轮投资机会:

中国人民大学舆论研究所所长喻国明教授日前认为,未来两三年,中国传媒业的变化、洗牌的程度可能会比过去十年还大.     

Battles in the costing war: UK debates, 1950-75

In the UK, 1950-75 was a lively period in the long-running debates between proponents of absorption and marginal costing. In the nexus of competing interests, management accountants advocated and defended rival costing systems with much vigour and passion. Expressed in the language of the times, these debates were 'battles' in the costing 'war'. We focus on these battles, analysing the various forces that operated upon the combatants, and locate them in the wider costing war. We conclude that no final resolution of the conflict was achieved in the twentieth century, nor is one likely in the foreseeable future.     

VPN:下一代金融业务网的灵魂

金融行业近几年的发展变化有目共睹，客户最直接的感受是可以通过金融机构提供的多种服务方式、手段和渠道，更方便、快捷地享受日益丰富的金融产品和服务。客户感受的背后，是金融信息化的迅猛发展和变革。自1999年开始的银行核心业务“数据大集中”工程，为这种变革奠定了坚实的基础，金融行业这种内涵收敛和外沿扩张的趋势将进一步加速并延续下去，大量的创新业务和应用将全面推广和部署。     

Ending the war between Sales & Marketing

Sales departments tend to believe that marketers are out of touch with what's really going on in the marketplace. Marketing people, in turn, believe the sales force is myopic--too focused on individual customer experiences, insufficiently aware of the larger market, and blind to the future. In short, each group undervalues the other's contributions. Both stumble (and organizational performance suffers) when they are out of sync. Yet few firms seem to make serious overtures toward analyzing and enhancing the relationship between these two critical functions. Curious about the misalignment between Sales and Marketing, the authors interviewed pairs of chief marketing officers and sales vice presidents to capture their perspectives. They looked in depth at the relationship between Sales and Marketing in a variety of companies in different industries. Their goal was to identify best practices that could enhance the joint performance and increase the contributions of these two functions. Among their findings: The marketing function takes different forms in different companies at different product life cycle stages. Marketing's increasing influence in each phase of an organization's growth profoundly affects its relationship with Sales. The strains between Sales and Marketing fall into two main categories: economic (a single budget is typically divided, between Sales and Marketing, and not always evenly) and cultural (the two functions attract very different types of people who achieve success by spending their time in very different ways). In this article, the authors describe the four types of relationships Sales and Marketing typically exhibit. They provide a diagnostic to help readers assess their companies' level of integration, and they offer recommendations for more closely aligning the two functions.     

ERI：信用风险研究的重大突破

2012年2月28日,中国出口信用保险公司（简称＂中国信保＂）正式推出中国短期出口贸易信用风险指数（ERI）,为出口企业、金融机构等判断对外贸易信用风险及其走势提供指南。ERI指数是采用指数评分的方式来反映中国短期出口贸易的主要贸易国（地区）、重点出口行业的信用风险变化趋势,是中国国内首次对主要贸易国、重点出口行业以指数化形式进行信用风险研究的崭新尝试和重大突破,也是国际出口信用机构（ECA）首次对国与国之间短期出口贸易的信用风险进行量化研究的具体实践