A Statistical Model to Investigate the Reproducibility Rate Based on Replication Experiments

The reproducibility crisis, that is, the fact that many scientific results are difficult to replicate, pointing to their unreliability or falsehood, is a hot topic in the recent scientific literature, and statistical methodologies, testing procedures and p‐values, in particular, are at the centre of the debate. Assessment of the extent of the problem–the reproducibility rate or the false discovery rate–and the role of contributing factors are still an open problem. Replication experiments, that is, systematic replications of existing results, may offer relevant information on these issues. We propose a statistical model to deal with such information, in particular to estimate the reproducibility rate and the effect of some study characteristics on its reliability. We analyse data from a recent replication experiment in psychology finding a reproducibility rate broadly coherent with other assessments from the same experiment. Our results also confirm the expected role of some contributing factor (unexpectedness of the result and room for bias) while they suggest that the similarity between original study and the replica is not so relevant, thus mitigating some criticism directed to replication experiments.     

On a Problem of Robbins

An early example of a compound decision problem of Robbins (1951) is employed to illustrate some features of the development of empirical Bayes methods. Our primary objective is to draw attention to the constructive role that the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator for mixture models introduced by Kiefer & Wolfowitz (1956) can play in these developments.     

Exploring necessary conditions in HRM research: Fundamental issues and methodological implications

Although the notion that HRM activities are necessary conditions for achieving certain outcomes is widespread in HRM research, most empirical studies follow an additive sufficiency logic. That is, they analyse whether HRM activities increase an outcome, assuming that they can compensate for one another. However, this does not correspond to the idea of necessity where single HRM activities are required for an outcome to occur and cannot be compensated when absent. We discuss the differences between sufficiency and necessity logics in terms of theory, methodology, and practical relevance. Also, we suggest using a new approach and analysis technique in HRM research: necessary condition analysis. We illustrate the application of the method by analysing data on the relationship between ability‐, motivation‐, and opportunity‐enhancing HRM practices (i.e., high‐performance work practices) and employee performance. This illustrative example highlights that necessary conditions require particular theoretical attention and suitable empirical methods. The paper concludes by showing the value of studying necessary conditions, because such analyses allow straightforward recommendations to be given of high relevance for HRM practice, which differ from and add to recommendations based on additive sufficiency logic and analyses.     

浅析软件测试中容易遗漏的缺陷

软件开发的各个周期都存在引入软件缺陷的可能,而软件测试不可能发现所有的缺陷。文章根据笔者的从业经验,总结了在软件测试过程中容易被忽视的几个方面,通过对这些方面的重视,可以提高软件测试的有效性。     

Determination of a hospital management policy using conjoint analysis in the analytic network process

When making management performance decisions, administrators frequently utilize balanced scorecard (BSC) to measure performance because the BSC does not excessively focus on financial measures and seeks a balance among customer perspectives, learning and growth, internal business processes and financial measures. A growing number of studies have applied the analytic hierarchical process (AHP) method to choose BSC metrics for management performance. These AHP methods assume that criteria are independent. Saaty (Decision making with dependence and feedback: the analytic network process. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, 1996) presented the analytic network process (ANP) method to solve the limitations that criteria are independent. Conventional ANP methods involve complex calculations when the number of criteria increases. Hence, this study attempts to integrate conjoint analysis (CA) and the ANP method to simplify the ANP calculation procedure. Additionally, the decision of management policy is utilized with BSC to determine whether the situation at a hospital demonstrates the feasibility of integrating CA with ANP. Study results reveal that the proposed methodology increases the efficiency of decision making among policymakers and reduces associated risks     

Small‐scale Inference: Empirical Bayes and Confidence Methods for as Few as a Single Comparison

Empirical Bayes methods of estimating the local false discovery rate (LFDR) by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), originally developed for large numbers of comparisons, are applied to a single comparison. Specifically, when assuming a lower bound on the mixing proportion of true null hypotheses, the LFDR MLE can yield reliable hypothesis tests and confidence intervals given as few as one comparison. Simulations indicate that constrained LFDR MLEs perform markedly better than conventional methods, both in testing and in confidence intervals, for high values of the mixing proportion, but not for low values. (A decision‐theoretic interpretation of the confidence distribution made those comparisons possible.) In conclusion, the constrained LFDR estimators and the resulting effect‐size interval estimates are not only effective multiple comparison procedures but also they might replace p‐values and confidence intervals more generally. The new methodology is illustrated with the analysis of proteomics data.     

建筑结构中有限元分析技术的教学应用研究

采用有限元分析技术模拟分析钢筋混凝土简支梁的受力特性,可以使学生更清楚地理解梁的破坏过程,既丰富了教学手段,又激发了学生学习的兴趣。     

中国房价与地价的关系——基于相关分析和因果分析的实证研究

近年,中国房价持续迅猛上涨引发了不少讨论和争议,其中房价和地价的关系也是热点之一。本文以中国房地产为研究对象,借助SPSS16．0和Eview5．0,采用实证研究方法,对中国自1999年第一季度到2009年第四季度的房价和地价数据进行相关分析和格兰杰因果分析,揭示房价与地价的相关性和两者之间的协整关系,以及中国房价和地价在短期乃至长期相互影响的状况,为房价调控策略选择提供科学依据。     

Literary analysis as a metaphor in processual research: A story of technological change

This paper suggests that elements of literary analysis such as a plot, characterization, theme and style can be used metaphorically to guide data analysis and write-up in processual research that entails telling a story of a particular sequence of events or actions. How literary analysis as a metaphor can be used not only to guide research but assess the completeness of a research report, is illustrated with a field study of technology adoption in a Finnish pre-press firm.     

What does it mean to be a ‘self-initiated’ expatriate in different contexts? A conceptual analysis and suggestions for future research

Abstract

Personal initiative is an important behavior relevant to future workplaces that will require significant self-reliance. In research on self-initiated expatriates (SIE), it is assumed that those who move to another country and a new job show ‘initiative’ and yet it has received insufficient attention in empirical publications. We highlight the degree to which personal initiative shown by SIEs is context-dependent and conclude that it is untenable to attribute to all SIEs a homogeneous work behavior in terms of personal initiative. To improve the fast-growing SIE research, we incorporate a theory of personal initiative and advocate for, and give suggestions on how to measure initiative. We also, offer an initial model of how personal initiative will improve SIE outcomes. By offering specific guidance for future research, we seek to enhance the meaningfulness of future studies and thus increase their utility for organizations and policymakers alike. We conclude by expressing the importance of this conceptualization in practice.     

对我国商品房整体空置率的分析与判断

在商品房空置率的计算方法上,国内与国外相比存在着较大的差异,我国的商品房空置率的数据与国外的经验数据不具有可比性.我国商品房空置率计算方法存在着许多缺陷,应借鉴国外商品房空置率计算方法,对我国房地产业的发展现状与商品房整体空置率问题进行正确的判断.     

高校物流管理专业课程设置与学生就业率关系的评估分析

主要对高校物流管理专业课程设置与学生就业率的关系,运用层次分析的理论和方法进行评估与分析。把高校物流管理专业的课程分为三组A,B,C,通过调查和专家隔离打分的方法赋予权重,建立影响学生就业率的综合评价模型。通过yaahp层次分析法软件计算得到了课程设置对大学生三类百分比就业率的权重,得出判断矩阵一致性比例。认为层次总排序结果具有较满意的一致性并接受分析结果。     

运用统计分析法,降低设备故障率

设备故障率的高低,对生产设备稳定运行有着重要的影响。该文通过统计分析的方法,找到影响设备运行的不利因素和设备事故发生的规律及趋势,并加以控制,提高设备作业率。     

Comparisons of linear regression and survival analysis using single and mixture distributions approaches in modelling LGD

Estimating the recovery rate and recovery amount has become important in consumer credit due to the new Basel Accord regulation and the increase in the number of defaulters as a result of the recession. We compare linear regression and survival analysis models for modelling recovery rates and recovery amounts, in order to predict the loss given default (LGD) for unsecured consumer loans or credit cards. We also look at the advantages and disadvantages of using single and mixture distribution models for estimating these quantities.     

交通机动化爆炸性增长的模型分析

近年来我国城市交通出现较为严重的拥挤,其中一个重要的背景原因就是机动化进程不但呈现加速趋势,而且其增长具有爆炸性,而以往对机动化水平的预测明显偏低。基于交通规划预测中常用的逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)模型分析了爆炸性机动化的形成机制,并在建立收入增长的动态模型的基础上进行了数值模拟,进而提出了相关的政策建议。     

Multi-level analysis in information systems research: the case of enterprise resource planning system usage in China

Information technology (IT) usage within organisations is a multi-level phenomenon that is influenced by individual-level and organisational-level variables. Yet, current theories, such as the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology, describe IT usage as solely an individual-level phenomenon. This article postulates a model of organisational IT usage that integrates salient organisational-level variables such as user training, top management support and technical support within an individual-level model to postulate a multi-level model of IT usage. The multi-level model was then empirically validated using multi-level data collected from 128 end users and 26 managers in 26 firms in China regarding their use of enterprise resource planning systems and analysed using the multi-level structural equation modelling (MSEM) technique. We demonstrate the utility of MSEM analysis of multi-level data relative to the more common structural equation modelling analysis of single-level data and show how single-level data can be aggregated to approximate multi-level analysis when multi-level data collection is not possible. We hope that this article will motivate future scholars to employ multi-level data and multi-level analysis for understanding organisational phenomena that are truly multi-level in nature.     

我国房地产上市公司竞争力综合分析——基于主成分分析的实证研究

本文选取较为全面的竞争力指标对我国62家房地产上市公司的竞争力进行定量评价并得出相关结论,揭示当前及未来我国房地产企业竞争的格局,在此基础上提出建议,为相关企业提供有益的借鉴。     

The transition from school to work in 1979–1987 in the Netherlands*

We analyze the early labour market experiences of the cohort born in the Netherlands around 1965. Some of them, who left school early, entered the labour market just before the economic crisis of the eighties; the others entered the labour market during the period of high unemployment. We concentrate on the time-period between school-leaving and entering the first job. The individual differences in these initial durations of non-employment are analyzed by estimating hazard functions.     

A bootstrap analysis to investigate the economic efficiency of the logistics industry in Italy*

As argued by literature and consultancy reports, logistics enhances both productivity and competitiveness of several manufacturing supply chains. The analysis of the efficiency trends of logistics providers may shed light on some relevant aspects that can impact on the competitiveness of national industrial systems. Thus, the paper focuses on the Italian logistics supply, shedding lights on the distribution of the efficiency level within the logistics sector and its causes. The analysis is based on a two-stage methodology aimed at estimating the Italian logistics firms’ efficiency and defining some characteristics impacting the efficiency level. At first, we implement a Data Envelopment Analysis model based on balance sheet data, for the period 2006–2012, then an econometric regression is performed in order to identify the effects of main companies’ characteristics on firms’ efficiency. According to our results, size and geographical location are two of the most impacting variables explaining the efficiency score of the Italian logistics providers.