Aggregate planning by means of input-output and material-balances systems

After the essential differences between input-output and material-balances systems are summarized, a basic disaggregated production model is aggregated successively according to input-output and material-balances principles. Different conditions for perfect aggregation apply in the two cases. When aggregation is imperfect, an upper limit on aggregation errors is computed and a simple numerical example is presented to illustrate the differences between the two approaches. The conclusion is that the case for input-output analysis is not as clear-cut as is frequently suggested in the planning literature.     

PRICE ANALYSIS AND A SYSTEM OF PRICE STATISTICS

For some considerable time the interest in price statistics has mainly been focused on their use as "intermediate goods". The requirements of a system of price index numbers which have to be established in this connection are largely in the field of statistical coordination (integration of statistics on quantities, values and prices).
Recently the inflation problem has given rise to an increased interest in price statistics as "final goods". A meaningful analysis of inflation will devote attention to the relation between input prices and output prices. In this article several versions of an analysis of prices of final demand categories based on an ordinary Leontief input-output scheme are presented and the needs for price statistics are discussed. In fact a self-contained system of price statistics emerges from the price analysis.
There is a difference in the nature of the price index numbers required in compiling input-output tables in constant prices (Paasche) and that in the case of price analysis (Laspeyres). However the need for price observation runs largely parallel because in both cases the same detailed information on price developments will probably be used.
Price analysis gives the possibility of a step-by-step approach in building up a system of price index numbers.     

Identification of industrial complexes from the input-output tables of Canada and the USA: Some empirical tests

In large disaggregated input-output tables the conventional practice of triangularizied hierarchy of industries may not always work. Very often there are sets of industries which are mutually related by backward and forward linkages such that they represent coherent groups that are unrelated to the remaining industries in terms of transactions taking place in the input-output tables. To identify such coherent sets or blocks of industries which we call industrial complexes in the input-output tables has been the major objective of this paper. An algorithm is designed to meet this objective that also avoids the irrelevance and complications of the multivariate analyses that are usually applied to such a search.Some empirical tests are then performed to discover the industrial complexes from the input-output tables of Canada, 1961 and 1966, and the US, 1963.     

A MICROCONSISTENT EQUILIBRIUM DATA SET FOR CANADA FOR USE IN TAX POLICY ANALYSIS

In this paper we describe a micro consistent data set for Canada for 1972, assembled with general equilibrium tax policy analysis in mind. We stress the methodology used and in a number of tables report its main features.
In the data set the separate detail contained in input-output transactions tables, national accounts, household income and expenditure data, taxation statistics, foreign trade statistics, flow of funds and other sources is adjusted for mutual consistency. The final result is a micro consistent data set in which demands equal supplies for all products, zero profit conditions hold for industries and all agents' demands satisfy their budget constraints.
The motivation for data assembly is the currently widely used practice of calibrating "empirical" general equilibrium models so as to exactly reproduce a base year data observation as an equilibrium model solution. This procedure enables empirically based models to evaluate counterfactual equilibria in a way which corresponds to comparative static analysis in theoretical literature.
More detail on the data set is available on request in appendices deleted from the published version of this paper due to space constraints.     

Global factor trade with differentiated factor prices and factor intensities

Abstract .  Relaxing the assumption of internationally identical factor intensity techniques in the HOV model creates two challenges. First, computing actual factor intensity techniques of different countries requires detailed input-output tables and factor usage data, which are not always available. Second, determinants of the factor intensity technique differences across countries need to be identified. This paper explores the role of relative factor price differences in the determination of factor intensity technique differences across countries and proposes an inferring method that infers factor intensity techniques of different countries based on relative factor price differences. The HOV model is then modified accordingly.     

Winners and losers: a micro-level analysis of international outsourcing and wages

Abstract.  Our paper investigates the link between international outsourcing and wages utilizing a large household panel and combining it with industry-level information on industries' outsourcing activities from input-output tables. This approach avoids problems such as aggregation bias, potential endogeneity bias, and poor skill definitions that commonly hamper industry-level studies. We find that outsourcing has had a marked impact on wages. Applying two alternative skill classifications, we find evidence that a 1 percentage point increase in outsourcing reduced the wage for workers in the lowest skill categories by up to 1.5%, while it increased wages for high-skilled workers by up to 2.6%. This result is robust to a number of different specifications.     

基于投入产出方法分析大型工程项目对社会总产出的影响

大型工程项目对社会经济有重要影响,但影响程度往往难以量化。根据大型工程项目所处行业的特点,从投入产出理论出发,对现行的投入产出表进行了相应的调整,并在此基础上构建四阶的投入产出模型,定量研究大型工程项目给社会总产出带来的影响,最后还结合长江干堤工程项目给湖北省社会总产出带来的影响进行投入产出实证分析。     

The network structure of the United States input-output table

Economists triangulate input-output tables in order to find a predominant direction in the interindustrial movement of goods and services. Typically, industries, such as Mining, which are far removed from Final Demand, are situated at one end of the input-output table after rearrangement. At the other end are industries that produce for Final Demand, such as Food and Automobiles. Triangulation yields a linear ordering of industries. Much greater detail than this on the complex directionalities of interindustrial flows is presented here. The maximum flow minimum cut algorithm of network flow theory is employed to identify production and consumption complexes. These are relatively self-contained blocks of industries. In each block, there is one industry — the node of the complex — whose total production (consumption) is greater than the amount produced (consumed) by all members of the collection for (from) non-members. Many production complexes have as their nodes primary industries — ones that would be situated near one end of the table after triangulation — and as their other members Final Demand-oriented industries — ones that would be located near the other end. If there arem industries in an input-output table, ann-member production complex is composed of one nodal industry with total output,P, and (n?1) other industries, which together as then-member complex sell less thanP to the (m?n) other industries. 200 production and 42 consumption complexes of the most highly detailed version of the 1967 U.S. input-output table available are presented.     

中国制造业国际外包与能源利用效率研究

文章使用1992年至2002年的投入产出表数据计算出中国14个制造业行业的国际服务和实物外包水平,通过面板数据方法检验了国际外包对制造业能源利用效率的影响。实证结果发现国际服务和实物外包与能源利用效率呈U型关系,国际外包达到一定水平后将会对能源利用效率产生正面的作用,并且对不同行业能源利用效率的影响存在差异。从长期看,国际外包对提高制造业行业的能源利用效率具有正向作用,这意味着我国需要进一步推进国际外包活动。     

A MICROCONSISTENT DATA SET FOR CANADA FOR USE IN REGIONAL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM POLICY ANALYSIS1

This paper describes the sources and methods used in assembling a microconsistent regional data set for Canada for 1981 for use in counterfactual general equilibrium policy analyses focussing on regional impacts of government policies. A microconsistent data set at the regional level requires assembling detailed consistent accounts of production and demand by region, of interregional and international trade flows, and of transactions involving multiple levels of government. For many or most countries, the data requirements associated with regional general equilibrium analysis preclude this form of work. But because of the substantial progress made in recent years in developing provincial data sources in Canada, such as the provincial input-output tables and the provincial economic accounts, the situation in Canada is different. Using these data, it is possible to construct an interregional microconsistent benchmark data set at a suitable level of commodity detail for subsequent model use. This data set has already been used in an initial evaluation of a number of Canadian regional issues (see Trela and Whalley (1985)). The methodology used follows that presented in an earlier paper of ours (St-Hilaire and Whalley (1983)) which described the construction of a 1972 national data set for Canada developed for tax policy analysis.     

NATIONAL WEALTH ESTIMATION IN SOCIALIST COUNTRIES

The CMEA standard of statistical information provides a system of national wealth indicators. The paper deals with certain time series published in these countries and in the CMEA Statistical Yearbook as the components of that system. Special attention is paid to the USSR interbranch balance of 30 types of fixed assets cross-classified by 105 branches of economy. This balance is analogous to the input-output table technique in the western literature. On the basis of this balance the Soviet statisticians furnish coefficients of direct and total requirements in fixed assets for each branch. Such coefficients are usually called capital ratios or capital coefficients. In the USSR they are calculated together with the coefficients of direct and total requirements of labour for the same industries, and they supplement input-output tables. The scheme of the fixed assets balance and the matrix for the calculation of these coefficients are described in the paper together with some numerical illustrations of actual coefficients reached in the calculations.     

PROBLEMS IN THE COMPILATION OF INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES IN THE NETHERLANDS

This article deals with some aspects of the compilation of input-output tables (I.O. tables). A global view is given of the way in which I.O. tables are compiled in The Netherlands. It is indicated that in The Netherlands a number of developments are in progress that have led to an extension of the uses that are made of I.O. tables. The changing demands on I.O. tables that result from these developments can be met in future to an important degree. This has been made possible by extending and improving basic statistics and by increasing the uses made of automation facilities. Some problems remain, however, and one of these problems takes a central place in this article. This is the problem of accuracy and continuity: how can yearly I.O. tables be compiled that combine accuracy with consistency over time. Accuracy means here that the tables should be as complete as possible and in optimal accordance with all available information. Consistency over time means that estimates of details of I.O. tables compared with the same estimates for previous years reflect real economic developments. It is obvious that those two demands may conflict, particularly for years in which new information becomes available. It then must be decided whether accuracy or consistency in time deserves priority. What problems result from this decision and what are the consequences for the yearly I.O. tables? The problems arising from the conflicting demands of accuracy and continuity apply to the Netherlands in the last few years. This led to a revision of I.O. tables and national accounts for 1977. This revision resulted in an increase of estimated national income of more than 6 percent. For some components the adjustments have been much larger; this is particularly true for the services sector. More information on the 1977 revision is given in an annex.     

Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the U.S. Economy: A Structural Decomposition Analysis

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of various influences on carbon dioxide emissions. It incorporates methodological refinements of input-output structural decomposition analysis, which is the examination of economic change by means of a set of comparative static variations in key parameters of I-O tables. The analysis is performed using a two-tiered KLEM model, which allows for estimation of substitution and technological change effects within and between input aggregates. The model is used to decompose the sources of change in CO₂ emissions in the U.S. over the 1972–82 timeframe using hybrid energy/value tables for the initial and terminal years. Results show the significant effect of substitution within the energy sector and between energy and other inputs as the leading causes of the decline in carbon dioxide emissions.     

Applying input-output analysis to scenario analysis of ecological footprints

Application of input-output analysis to ecological footprints (EFs) is shifting from an ex-post static calculation toward an ex-ante scenario analysis for enhancing the policy relevance of EF analysis. This change in application prompts two issues requiring careful examination: (1) what is measured by Leontief inverses or extended environmental Leontief inverses, and (2) whether a sector's land multiplier (or compositions of land multiplier) can appropriately reflect the effect of delivering one unit of the sector's output to final demand on the required area(s) of production lands used by the sector itself and by other producing sectors whose products are contributed directly and indirectly to its production. The underlying message of these two questions is whether the assumed linear marginal relationship between a sector's output and its intermediate inputs (input-output coefficients)—a critical assumption made by W. Leontief to transform a transactions table from an accounting framework into the input-output model—can be extended to assume that the marginal relationship between a sector's output and the area of production land it uses for generating output is fixed (land-output marginal coefficient equal to average coefficient). By reviewing the literature on input-output analysis and its application to environmental issues and by theoretically and empirically examining the relation between sector output and land appropriation, this study advises against the use of land multipliers or their compositions in the EF scenario analysis.To apply the input-output model to EF scenario analysis for enhancing policy relevance with due attention to the relationship between sector output and land appropriation, this study suggests a two-stage EF calculation procedure. In the first stage, the input-output application estimates only the required raw materials (or generated pollutants) for meeting a given consumption pattern, which is the objective of environmental input-output analysis; in the second stage, the estimated amount of raw materials or pollutants is converted into land/water area, and a choice of conversion methods is suggested according to the research questions and the availability of conversion methods and required data.     

Stepwise aggregation for material balances

This paper develops further the Montias-Levine model for the material-balances process, and presents a stepwise aggregation process with full-cost price formation. It shows that stepwise aggregation speeds up the iterative process, and shows further that the Manove-Weitzman process is an important, but very special, version of the model presented here. Numerical experiments, using the Soviet 15- and 76-sector I-O tables, offer comparative degrees of convergence speed for various processes and verify that any process using stepwise aggregation is more efficient.     

BVAR models with economic priors: An application to the propagation of U.S. regional cycles to Canada

To overcome the over-parameterization problems typically associated with the estimation of large VAR systems, Litterman (1979, 1986) and Doan, Litterman, and Sims (1984) have proposed the inclusion ofstatistical a priori information. In this paper, we investigate how economica priori information based on regional input-output tables and trade flows statistics could help estimate a large U.S.-Canadian regional model. Instead of relying on the usual Choleski factorization, we present the variance decomposition based on a national-regional unobservable variables model. Using monthly series (total employment, 1966:1-1986:12) on five Canadian regions and four U.S. ones, we are able to characterize the north-south propagation mechanism.     

ESTIMATION ERROR IN SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS IN THE ABSENCE OF A DOMESTIC COEFFICIENTS MATRIX IN THE INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS

The objective of the paper is to develop various estimation methods for allocating imports according to their end-use and to make use of the derived domestic transactions for the estimation of gross domestic output and employment by sectors. The standard design in the construction of input-output tables is to provide imports of a sector in the form of a column. These imports are not allocated according to their final use and therefore, total intermediate inputs consist of both domestic and imported inputs. The input-output tables for 12 European countries distinguish three types of transactions: (a) domestically produced inputs; (b) imported inputs; and (c) total inputs. We have made use of these tables assuming that the information on import allocation by end-use and domestically produced and imported inputs separately are not available. The allocations of imports are made under various assumptions and a comparison is made of employment based on artificially generated domestic coefficients with employment based on actual coefficients. The sectors are ranked on the basis of both sets of results. In addition, the ratio of indirect to direct employment for the estimators and actual is derived. The sectors are ranked and the rank correlations between alternative estimators and actual are calculated. Although the ratios differ markedly from method to method, the ranks do not alter.     

Information And Communication Technology And The Measurement Of Volume Output And Final Demand - A Five-Country Study

Information and communication technology (ICT) products have undergone rapid technical change. Where quality improvements occur, they should be reflected in official price and quantity indices, otherwise there is a tendency to over-estimate price movements and under-estimate volume changes of ICT products. Statistical offices deal with this issue but the degree and nature of quality-adjustment of price indices of ICT products varies considerably between OECD countries. The present study simulates measurement effects on key economic variables (real output, private final consumption, government expenditure, investment, exports and imports) and productivity, under the assumption that the price indices of ICT products are fully quality-adjusted. The paper draws on a large selection of empirical studies to identify differences between quality-adjusted and unadjusted price changes and uses detailed information from input-output tables to assess their weights in final demand. Effects on GDP and its components are quantified for five selected OECD countries.