利用网络提高政府财务透明度研究

建设透明政府要求提高政府财务透明度。电子政务为政府利用网络提高财务透明度奠定了应用基础。与传统纸质方式相比,利用网络提高政府财务透明度具有明显优势,是未来发展趋势。本文构建利用网络提高政府财务透明度模型,并应用该模型考察中国利用网络提高政府财务透明度应用现状,进而识别并创建利用网络提高政府财务透明度的基准流程与最优实践。     

Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

This article identifies six fundamental indicators that might predict a financial crisis similar to the one that affected the emerging markets of Southeast Asia. Our empirical analysis shows that the 1997 Asian crisis could have been predicted. Probit estimation reveals that a small number of common indicators can forecast a financial crisis well. The estimation gives estimates that are robust to either cross-section or panel data. We suggest an aggregate indicator that combines all the individual indicators and calculates the optimal thresholds for the indicators. This aggregate indicator has similar predictive properties and reduces the calculations to determine the probability of crisis.     

The Economic Impact of the Lack of Transparency in Financial Reporting

Off-balance-sheet amounts are in the trillions of dollars, not including all transactions with off-balance-sheet implications. Financial managers and consultants intentionally structure transactions that are abusive of off-balance sheet accounting rules, which leads to a lack of transparency in financial reporting. This paper explores several ways in which companies manipulate off-balance sheet transactions to satisfy personal and business objectives as well as the impact of such manipulations. It is time for regulatory bodies to close the loopholes, eliminate overly rules-based standards, clearly state the economic objective of each standard, and require firms to disclose the economic motivations for the accounting practices they adopt.      

境内外金融市场联动效应：理论基础与文献综述

狭义金融市场联动效应是指不同金融资产的价格及其收益率和波动率之间的协动关系。本文从理论角度分析了金融市场联动效应的作用机制,对境内外金融市场联动效应方面的研究文献进行了评述,特别是境外上市交易的本土概念外汇、利率、股票衍生品市场与境内对应金融市场之间的联动效应,并据此提出一些政策建议以及未来研究方向建议。     

上市公司财务舞弊及其市场效应

从GONE理论"暴露"因子的角度出发,以2002～2005年间被中国证监会处罚的51家财务舞弊上市公司为例,选取对照样本观察舞弊的短期和长期市场反应。与舞弊行为导致社会资源错配而造成的巨大损失相比,监管部门对舞弊行为、尤其是舞弊责任人的处罚力度不够。发展艰难,诉讼不断,以及股价的持续下跌都很大程度上增加了舞弊公司今后的再融资成本。     

Robustness of Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies with Data Revisions—A Note

Data revisions routinely introduced by the World Bank can lead to significant revisions in empirical results. We show this by re-estimating our aggregate indicator for predicting the 1997 Asian crisis utilizing the 1999 and 2004 updates of the 1996 World Bank data and comparing these results to those we obtained (this Journal, 2000) for predicting the same event using the original, unrevised, 1996 World Bank data. Since most data-gathering organizations routinely revise their data, this may represent a much greater problem for policy makers than might be recognized.     

The Global Financial Crisis Revisited: Competition and Regulation

Abstract

Using data of the systematic banking crises from 1981 to 2008, we examine how competition and regulation are related to the crises. We find that countries with higher concentration and/or higher market power of the banking industry are less prone to crises. Further, they are more likely to have weathered the 2008 global financial crisis. However, regulatory and institutional factors play little role and the estimation results are shown to be sensitive to measures of the degree of competition or severity of the crisis, as well as the coverage of the crises.     

Stock market liberalizations: Financial and macroeconomic implications

The paper presents new evidence on the effects of stock market liberalization on financial and macroeconomic development. Using a panel of 27 countries, liberalization is associated with a short-term increase in real private investment growth of about 14 percentage points cumulatively in the four years following liberalization and a cumulative 4 percentage point increase in real GDP per capita growth. The benefits of liberalization are higher in countries that have improved their institutional framework prior to liberalization. In contrast to other studies, we find some evidence for a permanent growth effect of about 0.4 percent a year in an extended sample of 72 countries. JEL no. F3, G1, O1     

产品市场竞争动态与公司财务保守行为:实证研究述评

得益于产业组织理论与资本结构理论的交叉渗透,企业融资管理更加强调财务灵活性,即须基于产品市场竞争动态、公司战略、公司治理结构以及资本市场环境等因素进行综合权衡,财务保守由此作为一种能够适应企业当前情况及未来投资机会的投融资战略选择行为,而在当代资本结构研究中颇受关注。文章基于资本市场时机、行业竞争、公司治理结构及债务契约分析等四个视角对产品市场竞争与公司财务保守行为关系的经验研究予以述评。     

Financial integration and innovation in Europe

The creation of an internal market for financial services by the European Union, along with technological changes in communications and data management, will have a strong impact on banking and financial markets in Europe. This paper presents a selective review of discussions concerning the resulting processes of adjustment and their outcomes. Topics covered include effects on cost efficiency, competition production and trade patterns, and the dynamics of financial regulation in the open, integrated economy.     

金融约束政策对农村金融市场的影响及启示

文章在金融约束对我国适用性分析的基础上,论述了金融约束政策在过去一段时间内对农村金融市场配置效率和农村金融机构运行效率造成的负面影响,在借鉴国外经验的基础上,从发展适度竞争的农村金融市场、引导金融资源回流农村和促进农村金融机构内部管理体制改革三个方面提出政策建议。     

The Money Trail: Ranking Donor Transparency in Foreign Aid

Transparency of aid activity is being recognized to be one of the key areas whereby aid effectiveness can be improved. In this paper, we propose an index to measure and rank donors on the transparency of their aid activities. The Transparency Index rates 31 bilateral and multilateral donor agencies on six measures of transparency. We find that being a member of the IATI is a powerful signal of a donor being more transparent across most other dimensions as well. We find no relationship between transparency and donor aid volumes. Overall IDA and Australia are identified as the most transparent donors, while Korea and IDB Special Fund are the least transparent.     

我国多层次资本市场和金融资源配置效率分析

金融资源具有再配置其他资源的属性。资本市场作为金融市场的核心组成部分，具有金融资源的属性特点资本市场通过各种利益关系的再分配，决定了金融资源的配置。金融资源配置效率包括金融资金配置效率、金融机构配置效率和金融制度配置效率以及在三者基础上形成并反映三者效率的综合配置效率。     

我国金融机构碳金融业务创新研究

在过去的几年中,由于商业银行等金融机构的介入,金融产品及金融业务的创新已经成为了国际金融市场发展中的一个新亮点。发展中国碳金融体系,为金融业提供了巨大的发展空间。尽管国内与低碳经济相关的碳金融已经取得了相当的进展,但其发展仍处于相对初级的阶段。针对我国金融机构参与碳金融创新存在的几个问题,从构建碳信用交易平台,增强金融机构作为资金中介及交易中介的作用和努力推动碳金融产品创新的角度进行了阐释。     

论中国金融深化改革中的政府行为

近年来影子银行业务、互联网金融等金融创新的不断涌现,给我国金融业注入了活力。然而,现行的由政府主导的金融体制,虽然在由计划经济向市场经济转型的过程中,对我国金融业的建立、发展起到了极为重要的作用,但其过度的金融垄断,阻碍了金融创新的发展和金融业改革的深化。因此,如何做到政府干预的适度,是保障金融深化改革健康发展的重大课题。     

数字货币与传统金融市场的风险双向溢出效应研究

选取2013 年4 月30 日至2020 年7 月10 日比特币、黄金、原油、美元、欧元、日元和人民币的日交易数据,基于DY2012 的溢出指数构建法,着重从动态角度刻画风险溢出的演化趋势,并结合国际政治、经济、突发公共卫生事件,对数字货币市场与传统金融市场间的风险溢出路径及机制进行了剖析。结果表明,数字货币与传统金融市场间具有明显的双向风险溢出效应。在国际重大经济政治的影响下,数字货币对各传统金融市场的风险溢出在特定时期具有相似趋势,传统金融市场对数字货币市场的风险溢出并不规律。在新冠疫情的影响下,除人民币外的传统金融市场和数字货币市场的风险溢出指数均处于高位,且有可能持续下去。     

美国次级债风波与世界金融市场的机遇

2007年7月以来,美国的次级债风波愈演愈烈。这场风波首先发端于美国次级住房抵押贷款出现犬规模违约,进而引发以其为基础的证券化产品收益大幅下降,价格急剧下滑,投资者遭受了巨大损失。次级债风波的影响之大,持续时间之长超出了市场预期,恐慌的情绪逐渐在资本市场蔓延,投资者信心受到严重打击,投资意愿下降,市场抛压沉重,流动性迅速紧缩。整个资本市场呈现动荡不安的格局,美国经济衰退的风险增加。文章对这场风波产生的根源和传导机制进行了分析,阐述了流动性紧缩对金融市场的影响及国际金融界的应对措施,在此基础上探讨了国际金融市场出现的新机遇,提出我国金融机构应以开放的姿态积极把握市场机遇,提高自身的竞争力。     

A ‘First Go’ on Financial Accounts for Denmark, 1875–2005

Abstract

Financial accounts can be used in an attempt to paint a coherent picture of the development of the financial system and the financial structure. To date projects related to historical national accounts have – both in Denmark and internationally – only focused on the real side of the economy. The article presents a first attempt to construct a set of annual financial account stock data for Denmark for 1875–2005. Furthermore, the article addresses some of the more methodological and conceptual aspects of using financial accounts as a framework for the organisation of historical financial statistics.     

The Relationship Between Price Stability and Financial Stability: Evidence From Major Emerging Economies

We examine the relationship between price stability and financial stability for major emerging economies using a Markov regime-switching model. Empirical results suggest that monetary policy is consistent with the Taylor rule in all countries except for India and all countries followed both low and high inflation targeting monetary policy regimes. Low inflation targeting regime seems to be more persistent and has higher duration than high inflation targeting regimes except for Indonesia and South Africa. All countries seem to have had financial stability concerns when they formulated their monetary policy as the coefficient of the financial stress index is statistically significant at least in one regime. Overall the results suggest that Taylor rule-based monetary policies have been implemented to various degrees in major emerging economies to achieve economic stability, price stability, and financial stability.