Impact of electronic road pricing on real estate prices in Singapore

Since 1998, Singapore has had an Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) system set up with a network of toll gantries to tax vehicles entering designated areas in the city center during peak hours. Using the congestion rate hike with effect from November 1, 2010 as an exogenous shock, we test the effects of the ERP rate hike on retail, office and residential real estate prices. The results show that the November 2010 congestion toll rate increases cause a 19% drop in retail real estate prices within the cordon ERP areas relative to retail real estate prices outside the cordon ERP areas. The results are statistically and economically significant. However, the toll rate hike has no significant impact private office and residential real estate within cordoned ERP areas. The robustness and falsification tests could not reject the negative effects associated with the toll rate hike on retail real estate prices.     

中国房地产业的泡沫分析

从1991年开始我国经济进入了一个高速、平稳增长的周期,在1998年2002年,以住宅建设为主的房地产业,在抵消亚洲金融危机影响、推动国民经济增长方面起到了积极的作用.但同时房地产业的兴起也引起了房屋价格的持续上升,尽管国家出台了旨在抑制投资的宏观调控政策,且效果已经显现,但房产价格与土地价格仍然继续上涨,且各地差异较大,部分地区出现了经济泡沫现象.到底应该如何判断中国房地产市场中的泡沫现象,本文将从概念分析入手,结合反映中国房地产市场表现的一些指标进行对比,对目前的房地产市场进行一些判断和分析.     

Lending constraints,real estate prices and business cycles in emerging economies

We investigate a small open economy with constraints in both the domestic and the international credit market. The informational opaqueness of the domestic market hinders foreign lenders' activity, so that entrepreneurs face looser borrowing constraints vis-à-vis domestic financiers. However, limited capitalization constrains domestic lenders. Calibrating the model to data from Argentina, we find that the interaction between lending and borrowing constraints is a channel through which real interest rate shocks generate fluctuations in output, real estate prices and consumption. External financial liberalization increases volatility and affects welfare more than domestic liberalization but also mitigates the destabilizing impact of domestic deregulation.     

论我国房地产泡沫防范管理

房地产业是国民经济的支柱产业,又是经济泡沫的主要载体之一,房地产泡沫有严重危害,我国房地产存在泡沫,应加强房地产泡沫防范管理。     

上海住房价格指数完善研究

在中国房地产的快速发展过程中,房地产行业的风险问题日益突出。用科学的方法反映房地产价格的变化,从而提供给市场主体正确的引导信息已变得十分迫切。本文在分析了发达国家关于住房指数理论的研究成果,结合我国目前住房指数的现状及其特点的基础上,提出了一种改进的住房价格指数方案,作为对于现有上海住房指数系统的补充和完善。     

Contagion between real estate and financial markets: A Bayesian quantile-on-quantile approach

We study contagion between Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and the equity market in the U.S. over four sub-samples covering January, 2003 to December, 2017, by using Bayesian nonparametric quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regressions with heteroskedasticity. We find that the spillovers from the REITs on to the equity market has varied over time and quantiles defining the states of these two markets across the four sub-samples, thus providing evidence of shift-contagion. Further, contagion from REITs upon the stock market went up during the global financial crisis particularly, and also over the period corresponding to the European sovereign debt crisis, relative to the pre-crisis period. Our main findings are robust to alternative model specifications of the benchmark Bayesian QQ model, especially when we control for omitted variable bias using the heteroskedastic error structure. Our results have important implications for various agents in the economy namely, academics, investors and policymakers.     

试论我国房地产金融市场的发展

房地产业是一个资金密集型产业,与金融业存在着很大的关联度,因此必须促进房地产金融市场的发展。文章将分析我国房地产金融市场的发展现状及存在的主要问题,并提出发展与繁荣我国房地产金融市场的有关对策建议。     

Measuring destocking performance of the Chinese real estate industry: A DEA-Malmquist approach

This paper aims to measure the evolution of destocking performance of the Chinese Real Estate Industry based on a DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis)-Malmquist approach, which is seldom used in this industry in existing literature. In 2016, the Chinese government introduced a unified national destocking policy to reduce real estate inventory to save the downturn in the real estate market, but the effect was less than expected and led to soaring house prices in first-tier cities. By analysing the destocking performance over the period from 2005 to 2015, we find the following: (1) It is impossible to use a unified policy to effectively address the national destocking issue because of the difference of DMUs' destocking efficiency, input redundancy and total factor productivity score changes. (2) With the current destocking performance and investment status, the government is still ignoring the existing commercial real estate problems. (3) The redundancy of firm assets and staff indicates that zombie firms may exist and risk future unemployment in the real estate industry. (4) Despite the recently repeated government interventions in this industry, destocking performance remains falling since 2008, and problems in other regions is more severe than in central cities. (5) The financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis has had a great impact on China's real estate industry. The destocking performance dropped sharply in 2008, forcing the Chinese government to introduce policies to stimulate the real estate market. Policy recommendations are also put forward based on the findings.     

房地产投资信托基金投资运作风险管理研究

文章首先通过对房地产投资信托基金(REITs)的基本介绍以及投资特性入手,然后分析其投资运作风险,通过比较借鉴对其投资运作风险控制给出具体解决措施,最后给我国REITs的风险管理提出建议。     

土地政策在房地产市场调控中的作用

通过与财政政策、货币政策的比较,分析了土地政策在房地产市场调控中的优势和劣势,并结合我国近几年的调控实践进行了实证分析。     

信托——房地产融资新宠

文章通过分析房地产投资信托的特点和发展房地产投资信托的必要性,指出信托必将成为房地产融资新宠,并就其推广提出政策性建议。     

论顾客满意理论在房地产营销中的应用

自20世纪80年代中期开始,我国的房地产市场需求急剧扩大,房地产业也随之得到飞速发展,文章通过分析顾客满意战略在房地产营销中的应用,希望能为房地产开发商带来些许启迪。     

旁地产企业目标成本管控问题与对策研究——以Y房地产开发公司为例

房地产企业目标成本控制模式是企业基于标杆管理方法及理论,在项目开发前期确定拟开发项目的成本目标,并在开发过程中进行动态监控以确保成本目标的实现。Y房地产开发公司在目标成本管控过程中成本超标现象比较普遍,其超标原因主要有目标成本执行过程中一成不变、限额设计落实不到位及成本控制执行力差等,通过采取目标成本定期评估、动态调整、进行限额设计的精细化管理及强化成本控制意识与责任、严格奖惩等措施可以有效解决成本超标问题。     

房地产泡沫的形成机理——基于行为经济学视角的分析

运用行为经济学相关理论,通过分析房地产市场微观主体从泡沫形成至泡沫破裂各阶段的心理和行为过程,探究了房地产泡沫形成的内在机理,并揭示了泡沫非理性的本质.最后针对房地产市场存在的非理性行为,提出应通过制度设计及借助税收杠杆等政策工具来规范房产交易、抑制过度投机,从而有效地防范和控制房价过度增长.     

保障房建设在房地产及经济发展中的作用

在我国房地产供应市场化的过程中,市场主体的不断增强导致了房地产资源的分配出现了严重不均的状态,于是,国家对房地产业进行了数次调控。当前的保障房建设规模的迅速扩大是国家对房地产业宏观调控取得的重要成果之一。在保障房建设过程中,一方面应实现保障房建设自身的有序发展,另一方面亦应关注商品房建设的健康发展,最终使房地产资源的配置得到优化和国家整体经济的健康平稳发展。     

论我国现行土地制度对物业税的影响

本文基于土地所有权与土地使用权可以相对分离,土地使用权具有物权特性,土地使用权人享有相应期限内的土地收益权,对土地使用权课征不动产税可以弥补土地出让制度的缺陷,可以规范中央与地方的财政分配关系等方面的分析认为,虽然中外土地制度存在差异,但是中国土地公有制并不能成为开征不动产税的障碍。     

The information content of funds from operations and net income in real estate investment trusts

This study compares the information content of funds from operations (FFO) and net income (NI) in the real estate investment trust (REIT) industry. We find that models using FFO explain more of the variance in cumulative abnormal returns around earnings announcement dates than models using NI do. We also find that the information content of FFO differs across REITs of different sizes. FFO does not provide useful information to investors in the case of large REITs. Finally, we show that the gain or loss from sales of property is relevant to valuing large REITs.     

房地产:解释目前经济现象的核心线索

1998年的住房分配货币化,极大地改变了中国宏观经济的景观,作者在进行了一系列分析后指出,目前这次房地产增和不是经济发展带动的,而是相反,近年来的经济增长是房地产带动的.中国经济处在一个下降的周期里,通过制度改革启动了房地产高潮和新一轮经济的增长.     

Policy spillover and regional linkage characteristics of the real estate market in China's urban agglomerations

The main purpose of this study is to determine the spillover effect of real estate regulatory policies released by core cities on the surrounding cities in major urban agglomerations based on regional linkage characteristics of China's real estate market. In this study, real estate transaction data of 157 cities were selected from 11 major urban agglomerations. Agglomeration's housing transaction volatility and spillover effect caused by the core city's regulatory policies were simulated by integrating spatial and temporal analysis model, event analysis, and symbolic time series analysis. The findings showed that (1) the regional linkage of the real estate market in the Harbin–Changchun and Middle–South Liaoning, Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and West Side of the Straits agglomerations were remarkably tight and the core cities' policy spillover effect was significant, of which the house purchase limitation and credit limitation policies had the widest influence; (2) the regional linkage of the real estate market in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei agglomeration, Shandong Peninsula, Guanzhong Plain, and Chengdu–Chongqing agglomerations was relatively weaker, but the core cities' policies of market regulation and taxation had certain spillover effect; (3) there were significant differences in the spillover effects of different types of policies in different urban agglomerations; (4) generally, the core cities' policy spillover often reduced the changing characteristics of the real estate market and made it more ordered with more certainty in the whole agglomeration, with the exception of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, West Side of the Straits, and Chengdu–Chongqing agglomerations.     

论我国房产税的计税依据

我国将稳步推进房产税的改革,而在改革的过程中需要准确界定房产税的计税依据。为此本文首先分析和比较了面积、市场价值和租金收入三种类型的房产税计税依据的优点和缺点,在此基础上结合公平性的要求、我国现行税收征管水平以及房地产市场现状等情况,提出我国应以市场价值为基准确定房地产税税基。对于房地产市场价值的评估办法,笔者认为居住用房地产价值的评估应该采用“城乡有别”的办法——城市和县城的居住用房地产采用市场比较法进行价值评估;农村地区的房地产采用重置成本法进行价值评估;对于营业用房地产,则采用收益法评估其市场价值。