我国政府投资与经济增长、居民收入和就业的关系

我国政府投资对经济增长、居民收入、就业等具有重要的作用。本文运用计量经济学的先进方法，选取我国政府投资的有关数据，通过测算得出：我国的经济增长是投资推动型的；政府投资对城镇居民收入增长的作用效果远远大于对农民收入的影响；政府投资每提高一个百分点，就业增长0.14个百分点。     

激活河北民间投资的政策、措施研究

经济回暖以来,河北政府投资在刺激经济增长中作用比较明显,但民间资本"惜投"现象仍然严重.经济增长主要靠政府投资和政策推动,而民间投资和市场机制明显不足,经济回稳的基础仍不牢固.在保增长、保就业、保民生的过程中,政府投资和民间投资二者不可偏废.政府投资及其他经济刺激政策可以帮助有效抗击衰退,并在短期内激活经济,但在回暖之...     

当前形势下民间投资"跟进"及金融支持问题研究

2008年下半年以来,面对严重的全球经济金融危机,我国政府为了促稳定,保增长,和世界各国一道,实行了积极的财政政策和宽松的货币政策,确保了国民经济的企稳回升.但是,如果说在经济低迷时,短期内可以通过增加政府投资来代替民间投资的不足,达到刺激社会总需求和保持经济增长的目的,但从中长期看,政府投资对经济增长的拉动作用还是小于民间投资的.随着经济的复苏,"挤出效应"将会越来越明显,从而在更大程度上削弱经济效率.如果没有足够多的民间投资,就难以完成投资总量,难以完成扩内需保增长、调结构促转型、增就业惠民生的任务.因此,要解决投资需求问题,启动民间投资就显得十分迫切和必要.     

地方政府投资行为与区域经济增长关系的实证研究

自1994年的财政分权体制改革以来,我国地方政府投资支出占地方GDP的比重越来越高.本文通过选取我国31个省市1994年-2010年的数据,运用面板数据模型分析地方政府投资行为与东中西部地区经济增长的关系.研究结果表明,东部地区地方政府投资效率最高;西部地区投资效率最低;中部地区经济增长对政府投资增加的拉动作用最强,西部次之,这说明我国中西部仍是政府主导型的经济发展模式.     

珠海市十三五固定资产投资分析

投资是拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,在国民经济发展和促进就业中发挥重要作用.论文对珠海市十二五期间的固定投资投资进行了分析,并对十三五固定资产投资提出了相关建议,在优化投资结构、提高固定资产投资效率等方面为政府决策提供参考.     

2011年国内经济形势预测及对银行业的影响

2010年经济金融形势回顾2010年中国经济实现10.3%的快速增长主要归功于投资、净出口及消费的快速增长。在三大经济增长引擎中,投资对GDP增长的贡献率为54.8%,推动GDP增长5.6个百分点;消费对GDP增长的贡献率为37.3%,拉动GDP增长3.9个百分点;净出口对GDP增长的贡献率是7.9%,拉动GDP增长0.8个百分点。可见,中国经济增长仍然依赖投资拉动。     

商品住宅投资并非投资增长源头

目前,我国投资对经济增长的贡献远大于消费,经济增长仍是投资主导型的。2007年上半年,我国商品住宅投资同比增长30.8%,高于同期房地产开发投资增幅2.3个百分点,高于同期城镇固定资产投资4.1个百分点。商品住宅开发投资的快速增长是否成为中国固定资产投资增长的"热源",是判断我国商品住宅开发投资增长合理性的重要证据。     

我国政府支出对经济增长拉动作用研究

运用协整理论等现代计量分析方法,对我国改革开放以来政府支出与经济增长间的关系进行实证研究.结果表明,我国的政府消费支出、投资支出、国债融资与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系;政府消费支出具有很强的生产性,与投资支出相比更能促进经济增长的实证性结论.     

政府债务与经济增长影响效应研究文献述评

本文通过对相关文献的系统性梳理分析,总结政府债务对经济增长的影响效应和作用机制:低水平政府债务促进经济增长,高水平债务抑制经济增长,政府债务规模与经济增长整体呈现倒U型关系;政府债务会通过社会投资、资本配置效率、金融风险、利率税收扭曲、财政政策能力和全要素生产率影响国民经济增长.根据我国政府债务的现状和发展趋势,本文提出政策建议:第一,完善各级政府债务发行审查制度;第二,合理规划政府债务资金用途;第三,优化政府性债券发行定价和评级体系,推动债券市场化改革.     

我国国债规模的现状及风险控制

一 　　1998年以来,我国实施了以扩大国债投资为重点的积极的财政政策,这是社会主义市场经济条件下政府反周期政策调节的一次成功尝试.1998年-2000年国家财政累计发行长期建设国债3600亿元,共安排国债项目6620个,到2000年底累计完成投资1.5万多亿元.各年度国债投资对经济增长的贡献率分别达到1.5、2和1.7个百分点,对实现预定的经济增长目标起到了关键性作用.2001年,继续发行1000亿元基础设施建设国债和500亿元西部开发特种国债;2002年国债发行量为5936亿元;2003年国债发行总量达到6355亿元,创下国债发行总量的新高.……     

Degrowth,the past,the future,and the human nature

In the last years, different sources point to a same message: industrial civilization has entered an overshoot mode, the natural limits to growth have been already surpassed. This frontier does not wait for us in the future; it already belongs to our past. If population and the economy are truly beyond the limits, then current visions and theories of social change would be deeply perturbed. If the development era is approaching its end, then many sociological theories on current societies will share the same destiny, sustainable development doctrines between them. It is worth to examine theories that explicitly look at the social world this way or that – at least – are not incompatible with it. Differences between these theories depend on sociological, psychological and anthropological questions; or, in other words, they depend on the human nature. Exploring the relationship between degrowth and the human nature gives rise to debates about selective pressures under conditions of scarcity (human evolution), historical and anthropological evidence, philosophy, and sociology (institutional resilience, utopies as whole society experiments…). As its conclusion, the argument accepts that an evolutionary perspective supports that there are some potentials for conscious social change even in a way-down era, but it does not justify the belief in a particular only line of history. This conclusion does not satisfy the desire of knowing the future; nevertheless it may be the only one possible. The future is not written. Neither in history nor in evolution; not even in the mixture of history and evolution that conforms us as inhabitants of the Earth.     

Banks,the IMF,and the Asian crisis

This paper examines the impact of the Asian crisis on bank stocks. In the second half of 1997, Western banks outperformed their stock markets. In contrast, East Asian bank indices incurred losses in excess of 60% in each of the crisis countries. Most of these poor performances are explained by stock market movements in the crisis countries. After taking into account these movements, currency exposures affected banks adversely only in Indonesia and the Philippines. Except for the Korean program, which affected positively bank stocks in all countries in our sample but one, IMF programs had little effect on bank values.     

Middlemen: the good,the bad,and the ugly

We examine the role of a middleman as an expert in markets. A seller's effort determines the quality of the good. Buyers observe neither the seller's effort nor the good's quality. A middleman, after observing a signal about the good's quality, decides whether to purchase it and then to sell it. We show that the presence of a middleman may either reduce or exacerbate the seller's moral hazard problem. We also consider a model with multiple middlemen. We find that the seller's effort is minimized if either the middleman's signal is perfect or the number of middlemen is large.     

Predicting anomaly performance with politics,the weather,global warming,sunspots, and the stars

Predictive regressions find that the party of the US president, the weather in Manhattan, global warming, the El Niño phenomenon, sunspots, and the conjunctions of the planets all have significant power predicting the performance of popular anomalies. The interpretation of these results has important implications for the asset pricing literature.     

Investor wealth,the IMF,and the Asian crisis

This study further investigates the impact of IMF actions on stock markets during the Asian crisis. Extending two earlier studies by Kho and Stulz (2000) and Evrensel and Kutan (2007), we investigate the long-term shareholder wealth impact of IMF actions and programs on both financial and real sector returns in the stock markets of Thailand, Indonesia, and Korea. We perform a series of tests employed in Cornett and Tehranian (1989, 1990) that incorporate heteroscedasticity across sectors and contemporaneous dependence of the disturbances. The findings indicate that IMF actions regarding liquidity disbursement or liquidity concerns in markets are the most important events affecting abnormal returns and hence investor wealth in both real and financial sectors. However, the response of the financial sector to IMF actions is much stronger than that of the real sector. In addition, the results suggest moral hazard effects during the Asian crisis in all the three countries.     

Expectations,the exchange rate,and the current account

A critical examination is undertaken of the relationship between the exchange rate and the current account in a small open economy. Theoretically, the correlation between the exchange rate and the current account seems to be ambiguous. In particular, the association between movements in the exchange rate and the current account is likely to depend in an essential manner on the nature of exogenous disturbances affecting the two variables simultaneously. Lastly, the question of the role of an optimal monetary policy and the choice of an exchange rate regime in an uncertain environment is raised.     

Time-to-build, time-to-plan, habit-persistence, and the liquidity effect

The inability of sticky-price monetary business cycle models to generate liquidity effects has been extensively documented by a number of authors. This paper develops a sticky-price monetary business cycle model with investment gestation lags and habit-persistence in consumption that is capable of generating an empirically plausible liquidity effect.     

Monetary shocks, the exchange rate, and the trade balance

This paper investigates the response of the exchange rate and the trade balance to monetary policy innovations for the US economy during the period 1973:01–1993:12. The empirical findings indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to transitory appreciations of the real and the nominal exchange rate. Exchange rate appreciations that are caused by a temporary contractionary shock to monetary policy are correlated with a short-lived improvement in the trade balance which is then followed by a deterioration, giving support to the J-curve hypothesis.