The quest for prosperity without inflation

In recent years, activist monetary policy rules responding to inflation and the level of economic activity have been advanced as a means of achieving effective output stabilization without inflation. Advocates of such policies suggest that their flexibility may yield substantial stabilization benefits while avoiding the excesses of overzealous discretionary fine-tuning such as is thought to characterize the experience of the 1960s and 1970s. In this study I present evidence suggesting that these conclusions are misguided. Using an estimated model, I show that when informational limitations are properly accounted for, activist policies would not have averted the Great Inflation but instead would have resulted in worse macroeconomic performance than the actual historical experience. The problem can be attributed, in large part, to the counterproductive reliance of these policies on the output gap. The analysis suggests that the dismal economic outcomes of the Great Inflation may have resulted from an unfortunate pursuit of activist policies in the face of bad measurement, specifically, overoptimistic assessments of the output gap associated with the productivity slowdown of the late 1960s and early 1970s.     

A partial adjustment theory of the balance of payments

This paper develops a partial adjustment theory of the balance of payments by incorporating the inter-temporal optimizing behavior of the two agents of the society: the public and the central bank. The central bank is viewed as the government's regulator of domestic credit and its objectives are taken as distinct from and possibly at odds with the public's objectives due to imperfect competition in the political marketplace. The final equation derived here implies that the balance of payments reflects both the active behavior of the central bank concerning foreign reserves and the contribution of the public's flow demand for money.     

Not all threats are taken equally: Evidence from proxy fights

Previous research shows that activist threats lead to corporate policy concessions. We find that the threat of proxy fights is responded to differently based on its credibility. Decomposing proxy fight threats, we find that only credible threats are associated with more leveraged, more innovative, and less acquisitive corporate policies. Management, however, does not respond to noncredible threats. Further, for materialized fights, the market reaction at announcement is also conditional on the credibility of the threats. Overall, not all activist threats are responded to equally by management or the market, and only credible threats achieve disciplinary effects and favorable valuation.     

A Monte Carlo investigation of the accuracy of multivariate CAPM tests

In a multivariate regression model relating individual returns to the market return, CAPM implies non-linear restrictions on the parameters. Several asymptotically valid tests of these restrictions have been suggested. The existing Monte Carlo evidence shows that some of these tests are unreliable for reasonable sample sizes, but does not indicate well which tests are reliable. This paper reports the results of an extensive Monte Carlo experiment. Shanken's CSR test and Jobson and Korkie's corrected likelihood ratio test are quite accurate in all cases we consider.     

Political images of the future: The Dutch case

The Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy is responsible for supplying, for use in deciding government policy, scientifically sound information on developments which may affect society in the long term. It also draws attention to anticipated anomalies and bottlenecks, defines major policy problems, and indicates alternatives. This article describes the Council's future survey and its use of various normative perceptions discernible in the political system. Six characteristic sociopolitical orientations are identified and the likely consequences of each are depicted, with the goal of stimulating future-oriented policies. Finally, the Dutch approach is compared with the approaches in other surveys of the future.     

Monetary instruments and policy rules in a rational expectations environment

This paper explores the implications of rational expectations and the aggregate supply theory advanced by Lucas (1973) and Barro (1976) for analysis of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty along the lines of Poole (1970), returning to a topic initially treated by Sargent and Wallace (1975). Not surprisingly, these two ‘classical’ concepts alter both the menu of feasible policy choice and the desirability of certain policy actions. In our setup, unlike that of Sargent and Wallace (1975), the systematic component of monetary policy is a relevant determinant of the magnitude of ‘business fluctuations’ that arise from shocks to the system. Central bank behavior — both the selection of monetary instruments and the framing of overall policy response to economic conditions — can work to diminish or increase the magnitude of business fluctuations. However, the ‘activist’ policies stressed by the present discussion bear little (if any) relationship to the policy options rationalized by the conventional analysis of monetary policy under uncertainty. In particular, in contrast to Poole's analysis, money supply responses to the nominal interest rate are not important determinants of real economic activity. Rather, the central bank should focus on policies that make movements in the general price level readily identifiable by economic agents.     

A wicksellian indicator of monetary policy

This paper compares actual U.S. monetary policy with an ideal policy based upon Wicksell's theory of natural and market rates of interest. For the period 1952–1971, this comparison indicates that actual policies behaved in a distinctly pro-cyclical manner with the result that monetary policies amplified the magnitude of the business cycles. The explanation offered suggests that this stems from the central bank's attempt to stabilize the interest rate which is consistent with one of the paper's findings of a highly significant positive relationship between changes in the natural rate of interest and changes in the monetary base.     

A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory

Testing the two-parameter asset pricing theory is difficult (and currently infeasible). Due to a mathematical equivalence between the individual return/‘beta’ linearity relation and the market portfolio's mean-variance efficiency, any valid test presupposes complete knowledge of the true market portfolio's composition. This implies, inter alia, that every individual asset must be included in a correct test. Errors of inference inducible by incomplete tests are discussed and some ambiguities in published tests are explained.     

The Pigou effect: An elaboration

The ‘Pigou effect’ has drawn the attention of monetary theorists for three decades. We argue in this paper that the nature and significance of Pigou's (1943, 1947) comments on Keynes have been frequently misinterpreted. In particular, we suggest that Pigou's logic implies not only that monetary policy will be successful in escaping unemployment in the liquidity trap situation, but also that it is a Pareto optimal means of doing so.     

Financial leverage clienteles: Theory and evidence

This paper examines the hypothesis that investors will sort themselves out into tax-induced ‘financial leverage clienteless’ in which the common stocks of highly levered firms will be held by individuals with low personal tax rates, while the shares of firms with little or no leverage will be held by individuals with high personal tax rates. Although the idea of financial leverage clienteless has appeared in the literature before, the immediate motivation for this investigation is a recent paper by Merton Miller. In that paper he argues that under the current U.S. tax structure, personal taxes will offset corporate taxes such that in equilibrium the value of any individual firm will be independent of its use of debt financing. We extend his analysis to show specifically the way in which financial leverage clienteles would come about in his assumed tax environment. We then conduct some direct empirical tests of the leverage clientele hypothesis. These tests can also be viewed as indirect tests of Miller's new proposition on the irrelevance of capital structures. The results of the tests are mixed: The relationship between corporate leverage policies and investors' tax rates is statistically significant, but its magnitude is less than would be predicted by the theory.     

Conflict variables in world simulations

World modellers have neglected social and political variables in their model building, basically because of problems of quantification. Instead they have treated these factors as exogenous, which has permitted a less rigorous approach to the relationship between their inputs and the real world. Here the author introduces two sociopolitical variables—conflict and centralisation—into Forrester's World 2 model, and Boyd's modified World 2, and compares the results of a series of computer runs with the results obtained from the original models. While the propositions linking these two variables to others in the World 2 model are largely hypothetical, the stability of the modified model suggests that these linkages are authentic—and that the study's findings concerning the effect of conflict upon the world system are valid.     

The role of expectations in stabilization policy

This paper develops and tests a theory of the process by which private agents in an economy form expectations about government policy. Agents form and update their beliefs about the true state of government policy in a Bayesian fashion. The ‘credibility’ of a policy is defined to be the subjective probability that the government is pursuing a 'reform' policy rule. The ‘credibility’ of a reform of monetary or exchange rate policies is a function of the parameters of both monetary and fiscal policies. The theory is applied to the Chilean and Argentine exchange reforms of the late 1970's.     

Pointers to government policies for technical innovation

The main phases in postwar industrial development patterns are summarised to show where we are now, and to indicate possible future directions for government policies towards technological innovation. A number of tables compare policies in different OECD countries, and the text draws attention to such underlying principles as going for high-technology industries, ensuring consistency within a government's policies, or the wise use of government procurement activities.     

The demand for and supply of deposits by credit unions: The Caisses populaires' case

The aim of the study is to explain Quebec major credit union's deposit market by way of intergrating its public demand function with the institution's rate-setting operation. The demand for Caisses' deposits is specified as a dynamic stock adjustment model. On the other hand, the intermediary's rate-setting reduced form is derived from a risk-return portfolio balance model which the managers maximize the expected utility of reserves. The two models are integrated by means of a liability composite rate. Econometric estimates of the integrated model provide us with interesting policy insights. For instance, the Quebecois public views chartered banks' deposits as a weak substitute for Caisses' deposits; it is also more responsive to non-rate arguments, such as loan eligibility or the institution's ethnic appeal. On the supply side, competitive liability rates are more important than returns on assets when the Caisses set its deposit rate. Finally, the impact growth imbalance between loans and deposits is well captured by a flow variable, without infringing on the steady-state determination based on rates.     

Can clients of economically dependent auditors benefit from voluntary audit firm rotation? An experiment with lenders

This study utilizes a nationwide random selection of 111 lenders in a 2?×?2 between-subjects experiment to determine whether the level of an auditor's economic dependence on a client and type of auditor rotation affect lenders’ independence and reliability perceptions and decisions to lend money to a potential borrower. Previous literature shows that financial statement users use client importance as a measure of audit quality when revenue streams are not equal across clients. This can negatively affect perceptions of independence and financial statement reliability. As United States regulators look for ways to improve audit quality under the current partner rotation mandate, this study explores whether an audited entity that voluntarily adopts a policy of firm rotation can mitigate the negative effects of the auditor's dependence on the client. Findings suggest that lenders view clients of economically dependent auditors (CEDA) as less independent from its auditor and perceive its financials as less reliable than clients without a dependent auditor (non-CEDA). Lenders are less likely to grant a loan to CEDA. However, under firm rotation, there is not only an increase in lenders’ perceptions of reliability of CEDA financials, but also no difference in perceptions of reliability of CEDA and non-CEDA financials.     

Bank acquisition of mortgage firms and stockholders' wealth: An empirical analysis

This paper examines the behavior of the returns on the securities of bank holding companies (BHCs) acquiring mortgage firms after the announcement of such an acquisition and the release of the Federal Reserve Board's decision. The stockholders of acquiring BHCs do not realize abnormal returns following the announcement of the acquisition of a mortgage firm. This reconfirms previous findings in unregulated industries and is consisten with the hypothesis that any economic rent which is generated by such an acquisition is captured by the acquired mortgage firm: This implies that there exist BHCs — other than the acquiring one — that could also affect a profitable merger with the mortgage firm. Another finding is that stockholders of BHCs that were 3enied permission to acquire mortgage firms sustained significant losses during the five weeks following the Board's decision.     

Measuring portfolio performance and the empirical content of asset pricing models

Recent work by Richard Roll has challenged the worth of portfolio performance measures based on the capital asset pricing model. This paper demonstrates that Roll's conclusions are due to his focusing on a ‘truly’ ex-ante efficient index. Using a choice and information theoretic framework, we show that an appropriate index is efficient relative to the probabilities assessed by the ‘market’. Residual analyses and portfolio performance tests, using such an index, yield meaningful results for a wide class of information structures. Roll's primary criticisms, however, relate to tests of the asset pricing model itself. We argue that these criticisms are vastly overstated.     

Optimum consumption and portfolio rules with money as an asset

This article generalizes Merton's optimum consumption and portfolio rules in continuous time by introducing money as a capital asset and allowing for uncertain inflation. Assuming that prices are log-normally distributed, a three-funds theorem is derived and the introduction of money is shown not to change the form of the standard inflation-adjusted CAPM but to change the market price of risk. The individual's consumption-portfolio problem is completely solved under uncertain inflation if his utility function is iso-elastic in its arguments. Comparative statics are used to assess the influence of changes in exogenous parameters on the individual's optimal rules.     

Top Management Team Characteristics and Accrual-Based Earnings Management

This study examines how top management team (TMT) knowledge and average tenure affect accrual-based earnings management by investigating 4791 Taiwanese listed companies from 2006 to 2010. TMT members with more knowledge (higher education level, more accounting expertise, and greater prior top management experience) and longer average tenure have better performances and higher reputations, and are more aware of the litigation costs of earnings manipulations; therefore, they reduce managers' incentives to manage earnings (incentive-reduction effect). On the other hand, these TMT members are also likely to become entrenched and engage in more earnings manipulations (entrenchment-enhancing effect). The empirical results show that firms' TMT knowledge and average tenure are negatively associated with discretionary accruals, suggesting that the incentive-reduction effect is stronger than the entrenchment-enhancing effect, which makes TMT members less likely to engage in earnings management. Moreover, the above results are robust when employing different earnings management measures and suspect firm analyses, as well as considering endogeneity issues. Finally, the study suggests that the presence of a founding family may reduce the influences of TMT knowledge and average tenure on earnings management.