东篱：真正意义上的景观才刚刚开始

徐玲认为,2010年,真正意义上的景观才刚刚开始,经过多年的积累、感悟、磨合、推敲,景观设计行业将更成熟、更理性、更生态。     

COUNTING THE COST OF HIGHER BASE RATES

It is a brave Chancellor of the Exchequer who raises interest rates when inflation is at record low levels and there are few signs of overheating. But Kenneth Clarke is clearly trying to give substance to his commitment - made in June's Mansion House Speech - to pursue stable monetary and fiscal policies. In that speech, the Chancellor told his City audience that the government had "not created the conditions for the strongest recovery in Europe in order to throw it away by creating yet another boom followed by bust".
There is widespread agreement with the Chancellor's objectives. But the difficult question for economic management is how high interest rates will need to go in order to contain inflation and keep the economy on course. In this Forecast Release, we examine this question as well as assessing the likely impact of the first rise in base rates for five years.     

TAXATION AND THE USER COST OF CAPITAL

This paper provides a review of the concept of user cost and its determinants. Particular attention is given to the influence of taxation. The concept of user cost relates to the rental, the rate of return to capital, that arises in a profit maximizing situation in which further investment in capital produces no additional profit. This paper sets out in some detail the range of assumptions involved in obtaining alternative expressions for the user cost. The user cost refers to a before-tax capital rental, the rate of return that ensures that the (after-tax) cost of capital is equal to the post-tax returns over its life. Hence, associated with the user cost measure is an effective marginal tax rate. This can differ substantially from the statutory marginal rate applicable to the investor. A related effective average tax rate is also defined.     

THE AID EFFECTIVENESS LITERATURE: THE SAD RESULTS OF 40 YEARS OF RESEARCH

Abstract.  The aid effectiveness literature (AEL) consists of empirical macroeconomic estimates of the effects of development aid. By the end of 2004, it comprised 97 econometric studies of three families of related effects. Each family has been analyzed in a separate meta-analysis. The AEL is an ideal subject for meta-analysis as it uses only a few formally similar models to estimate the same underlying effects. It is also an area with strong beliefs, often generated by altruism. When this whole literature is examined, a clear pattern emerges. After 40 years of development aid, the preponderance of the evidence indicates that aid has not been effective. We show that the distribution of results is significantly asymmetric reflecting the reluctance of the research community to publish negative results. The Dutch disease effect on exchange rates provides a plausible explanation for the observed aid ineffectiveness.     

从房地产博览会看09年下半年楼市

广州楼市经过07年暴涨、08年暴跌后，从09年春节开始出现了“小阳春”的现象。对于后市的走势．专家、投资者，消费者都众说纷纭。但随着股市进一步上扬．楼市成交活跃后．原来唱衰唱跌的专家都突然噤若寒蝉．有些反映快的立即转唱衰为唱好。购房者则更加迷茫，无论股票投资或购房投资都不清楚是否应该出手，出手早了担心被套牢，出手迟了则担心会踏空。     

THE DYNAMICS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATES: A RECONSIDERATION

In this paper we offer a bootstrap‐based version of the Cox specification test for non‐nested hypothesis to discriminate between ESTAR and MSAR models. Both models are commonly used for modeling real exchange rates dynamics. We show that the test has good size and power properties in finite samples. In an application, we analyze several major real exchange rates to shed light on the question of which model describes these processes best. This allows us to draw conclusions about the driving forces of real exchange rates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE REAL WAGE GAP

Over the past year a gap has opened up between the growth of manufacturing productivity and that of real wages. This gap cannot persist indefinitely, but it can be closed in many different ways. The best that can happen is that wage settlements fall while output and productivity accelerate. The worst outcome would be continued stagnation of real output and no deceleration of wages, in which case the required productivity improvement would have to come about through renewed labour shedding. There are worrying signs that this has started to happen. An intermediate solution might involve a fall in the exchange rate, with some improvement in competitiveness boosting real output (so that UK producers get a larger share of buoyant consumer spending) and some rise in prices holding back real wages.
We continue to believe that the most likely outcome is a rise in output and a fall in the rate of wage settlements. In our June forecast this occurs despite a fall in the real exchange rate. In these circumstances we expect the growth of unit labour costs to fall back from its current high level so that the current 3 per cent inflation rate becomes a true "core" rate. But a moderate fall in the real exchange rate may prove hard to achieve, especially if the oil price continues to weaken. We therefore explore what would happen if the required depreciation happens more rapidly, so that interest rates have to remain high to prevent it getting out of control. In this case we would expect lower growth and higher inflation than we forecast in June.     

新房验收：一个都不能少

《甲方乙方》中有一句经典台词：“没有爱情的婚姻是不幸福的，而没有房子的婚姻则更不幸福”，房子似乎是婚姻之外的第二件大事了，辛辛苦苦地排队等到了号，眼见他挖地基，眼见他砌主体，眼见他做装修，眼见他楼盖好了。 终于到了收房验房的日子了，早知道激动总是难免的，然而，“房”之一字，牵涉甚广，程序繁复，细节众多，难免让人无所适从。所以办理入住前，还有一项不容忽视的步骤，就是房屋的验收工作？[编者按]