Foreign Money Shocks and the Welfare Performance of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes*

The welfare properties of monetary policy regimes for a country subject to foreign money shocks are examined in a two‐country sticky‐price model. Money targeting is found to be welfare superior to a fixed exchange rate when the expenditure switching effect of exchange rate changes is relatively weak, but a fixed rate is superior when the expenditure switching effect is strong. However, price targeting is superior to both these regimes for all values of the expenditure switching effect. A welfare‐maximising monetary rule yields lower output and exchange rate volatility than price targeting for a wide range of parameter values.     

Reassessing the Social Foundations of Welfare (State) Regimes

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) was formed in 1964 to ‘create a forum in which the more prosperous member countries [of the United Nations] would come under pressure to agree to measures benefiting the less-developed countries’. More specifically, its formation was ‘a deliberate effort to use international bureaucracy and conference diplomacy to alter current norms affecting trade and development’. UNCTAD's founding reflected the growth in membership of the United Nations of newly independent states. A large number of the e´lites of these new entities keenly felt the iniquity of the world order which had ushered in their formal statehood. UNCTAD and the later call for a ‘New International Economic Order’ (NIEO) therefore were rejoinders to problems encountered by developing countries as a result of the creation and operation of the Bretton Woods system.     

Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises: an Evaluation using Extreme Value Theory*

We test whether the exchange regime in place has an impact on the vulnerability of countries to currency crises. Our paper is distinguishable from others (i) in its use of extreme value theory to identify currency crisis periods and (ii) in using two separate designations for the exchange regime in place. The first is the self‐reported or announced exchange rate system. The second classification scheme, by Levy‐Yeyati and Sturzenegger, is based on the relative movements of international reserves and exchange rates. The Levy‐Yeyati and Sturzenegger procedure is intended to reveal the actual as distinct from the “legal” exchange arrangement. We find, interestingly, that the announced exchange regime has an impact on the likelihood of currency crises, while the “true” or observed regime does not. Announced pegged exchange regimes increase the risk of currency crisis even if, in reality, the exchange rate system in place is not pegged.     

Explaining the Transition between Exchange Rate Regimes*

This paper studies the transition between exchange rate regimes using a Markov chain model with time‐varying transition probabilities. The probabilities are parameterized as nonlinear functions of variables suggested by the currency crisis and optimal currency area literature. Results using annual data indicate that inflation and, to a lesser extent, output growth and trade openness help explain the exchange rate regime transition dynamics.     

Reconsidering the Marginal Welfare Cost of Taxation*

A model with sticky wage rates and involuntary unemployment is used to compute the marginal cost of taxation, and these estimates are compared with those obtained from the conventional price-clearing equilibrium model. Important determinants of the marginal cost estimates are the response of sticky wages to a tax increase, the elasticity of demand for labour, and the unemployment gap. By contrast, the conventional model focuses on the elasticity of labour supply. The different models have different implications for efficient tax design. However, the new model generally agrees with the conventional model regarding significant efficiency costs of higher taxation.     

A Welfare Analysis of Capital Account Liberalization*

We develop a model of a small open economy with credit market frictions to analyze the consequences of capital account liberalization. We show that financial opening facilitates the inflows of cheap foreign funds and improves production efficiency. However, capital account liberalization has important distributional consequences. Specifically, it may be impossible to use public transfers to fully compensate the loss of those who are negatively affected by capital account liberalization. This explains why financial opening often meets fierce opposition even though it leads to efficiency gains for the economy as a whole. From a practical perspective, capital controls should be lifted gradually for a smooth transition.     

Oligopsony Distortions and Welfare Implications of Trade*

While imperfect competition in the output market has garnered extensive focus in the new trade theory literature, input market imperfection has received considerably less attention. Since market power in input purchase has been growing in recent years, it is worth examining the welfare implications of trade arising from oligopsony power. We develop a model consisting of two final goods, one intermediate good, and two primary factors (capital and labor). One final good and the intermediate good employ primary factors, whereas the other final good uses labor and the intermediate input. All markets operate under perfect competition except for the intermediate input, which is oligopsonistic. Using this model, we show that oligopsony can lead to some anomalies such as an increase in the oligopsony output, reward to the intensive‐factor in the oligopsony sector, national welfare, and deterioration of terms of trade, but it always decreases the reward to the intermediate input.     

Affordability and Some Welfare Aspects of Indexation*

A general equilibrium model with production and trade is used to analyze whether indexation schemes are affordable.     

从福利主义到非福利主义的转折——阿罗不可能性定理带来的困惑与拓展

文章研究了阿罗不可能性定理给福利经济学造成的冲击,以及围绕不可能性的解决福利经济学所经历的最新发展以及所取得的成就。并阐明了阿罗不可能性定理对福利经济学的发展所具有的特殊意义。     

Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries*

Pegged exchange rates are often pointed out as more prone to risk of overvaluation, because their real exchange rates have a tendency to appreciate. We check this assumption empirically over a large sample of emerging and developing countries, by using two databases for de facto classifications by Levy‐Yeyati and Sturzenegger (2003 ) and by Reinhart and Rogoff (2004 ). We assess currency misalignments by estimating real equilibrium exchange rates taking into account a Balassa effect and the impact of net foreign assets. Pegged currencies are shown to be more overvalued than floating ones.     

On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries*

Macroeconomic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the United States. Yet, while a large literature debates the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in the United States, it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries. Using several models, we provide such a measure. We find that the welfare cost of consumption volatility per se is far from trivial and averages a substantial multiple of the corresponding U.S. estimate. Moreover, in many poor countries, the welfare gain from eliminating volatility may in fact exceed the welfare gain from an additional percentage point of growth forever.     

Tariffs and Welfare In A Dynamic Differentiated Oligopoly*

Using a dynamic general-equilibrium environment with strategically interacting oligopolists, this paper demonstrates that dynamic elements will significantly alter the equilibrium effects of tariff policy. In particular, the tariff rate which maximizes aggregate steady state welfare is decreasing in the level of adjustment costs. Furthermore, when tariff rates change, there are short-run welfare losses along the dynamic transition path to the new steady state. Gradual implementation of policy can avoid these losses. This provides a justification for the gradual implementation of tariff reductions in the GATT rounds or in the Free Trade Agreement between Canada and the United States.     

Measuring Welfare Changes and the Excess Burden of Taxation*

This paper examines methods used to evaluate the welfare effects of tax changes, with emphasis on the measurement problems involved. Welfare changes and excess burdens are defined, along with approximations. Aggregate measures, using a social welfare function, are examined. The special case of income taxation is then examined, leading to discussion of the marginal welfare cost of taxation and the marginal cost of funds. The measurement methods examined include the use and estimation of direct and indirect utility functions, along with the algebraic and numerical integration from estimated Marshallian demand functions to the compensated demands. The use of equivalent incomes to examine tax changes, using unit record data from household budget surveys, is then discussed.     

The Welfare Costs of the Australian Telecommunications Pricing Structure*

Australian telecommunications pricing has developed in an environment which is uncompetitive, subject to pressures to cross-subsidize and insufficiently cognizant of relevant costs and demands. STD and local call charges are too high and access charges too low. Compared with a structure which charged marginal usage costs and retrieved costs of subscribers' loops and overheads through access charges, the pricing structure has an estimated efficiency cost of about $240 m in 1985–86.     

Terms of Trade and Welfare: A General Analysis*

We develop a necessary and a sufficient condition for an improvement in terms of trade to reduce welfare under a general setting, which can accommodate various types of market stucture and trade distortions. We also apply the conditions to two specific cases, viz export subsidies and the existence of monopoly in a non-tradeable sector. It is found that a rise in price for an exportable commodity which is subsidized may well reduce welfare. Also, improvements in terms of trade may well harm the economy if there is a non-tradeable monopoly sector.     

Immigration and Economic Welfare: Resource and Environmental Aspects*

The relation between immigration and the economic welfare of residents b analyzed for resource-rich economies (such as Australia) both under competitive conditions and when various distortions are present Immigration provides efficiency gains for residents under distortion–free competition for standard ‘gains from trade’ reasons. Such reasons, however, tend to be ignored by immigration and ‘optimal population’ theorists who raise the issue of restricting immigration without explicitly referring to the distortions. In situations where distortions and externalities are present, we argue that it is generally preferable to devise policies which specifically target the distortions than to restrict immigration.     

Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change on Developing Countries

The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.