论我国房地产市场预警系统的建立

建立房地产市场预警系统有助我们在恰当的时候采用正确的房地产宏观调控措施促进房地产市场健康发展。本文将房价收入比、房价租金比、租金收入比、房地产价格增长率与GDP增长率之比、商品房空置率5个指标作为房地产市场预警统计指标,并对它们的预警区间做出界定,然后根据每个指标的统计数据,确定警兆的警级,结合警兆的重要性进行加权综合,综合成一个指数,这样就可以用一组类似于交通信号灯的标志把当前的房地产市场状态直观地表达出来,用以判断房地产市场过热或衰退的程度,来制定房地产宏观调控的方向。     

The Effects of Assumption Financing Across Housing Price Categories

This study employs a standard housing valuation model to analyze the capitalization of below-market financing across housing price categories. The study also investigates the effect of secondary financing on housing prices and the effect of the expected holding period on discount capitalization. Using a randomly selected sample of 1981–82 housing transactions the study finds: the discount associated with below-market financing is inversely related to the absolute level of housing prices; secondary financing bears no systematic relationship to housing values; and discount capitalization is inversely related to the expected holding period.     

Equilibrium of Housing and Real Estate Brokerage Markets Under Uncertainty

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model of the real estate brokerage and housing markets with imperfect information. The paper considers general equilibrium in these markets with and without a multiple listing service. Input prices are found to affect the equilibrium housing price, brokerage commission, and split factor. The introduction of a multiple listing service is found to have several important effects. The MLS causes housing value to increase, but its effect on the commission rate is indeterminate. Contrary to the results of another paper, MLS brokers, on average, will likely undertake more search for both buyers and listings than will a non-MLS broker. The primary reasons are related to the greater efficiency of search in the MLS context.     

The economic effects of real estate investors

We show five new results about small- and medium-sized real estate investors (SMREI) who participate through legal entities in US housing markets. First, SMREI have the largest growth across all cities post Great Recession, in contrast to Wall Street Landlords who concentrate in superstar cities. Second, SMREI increase house price growth and price-to-income ratio, especially in the bottom price tier. Third, this effect is reversed as investors trigger a medium-run supply response. Fourth, in areas with a high supply elasticity, SMREI affect rents more than prices. Finally, SMREI change the composition of the housing stock in favor of multifamily units.     

Inflation Protection from Homeownership: Long‐Run Evidence, 1814–2008

This article examines the inflation hedging capacity of the private home. We employ unique long‐term data for inflation, house price dynamics and rents for Amsterdam dating back to 1814, allowing us to study total housing returns in different inflation regimes and for varying investment horizons. Our Amsterdam data show that homeownership's protection against actual and expected inflation increases with the investment horizon. This increase is especially strong for horizons up to 10 years. Inflation protection from housing is stronger when inflation is persistent, and the hedging capacities of housing regarding unexpected inflation are weak.     

Another Look at Tenure Choice, Inflation, and Taxes

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of inflation on the demand for housing. The first part of the paper presents a theoretical model that identifies the effects of inflation on the after-tax cost of housing and the choice between rental and owner-occupied housing. The second part discusses the results of a simulation model that measures the effect of inflation on the aggregate demand for housing, the aggregate homeownership rate, and the price of housing. The paper concludes that while inflation can be expected to increase the aggregate demand for housing and the price of housing relative to the general price level, inflation should ultimately lead to lower rates of homeownership. A corollary that is probably more relevant today is that lower inflation rates should reduce the real value of the housing stock and increase the homeownership rate. The paper also contains forecasts of the impact of the Tax Reform Act (TRA) of 1986 upon housing demand and the probability of homeownership for a variety of households.     

The Impact of Competition on Investment: Evidence From California Hospitals*

I examine the relationship between bargaining leverage and capital investment using data on California’s hospital markets. I find evidence that investment increases with bargaining leverage; a hospital whose bargaining position improves by one standard deviation will increase its investment rate by 16 percentage points. A positive causal relationship between bargaining leverage and investment fits the institutional details of the health care sector, where many firms have non-profit tax status, making it difficult to return monopoly rents to shareholders. Consistent with this explanation, I find that non-profit hospitals with bargaining leverage invest more than for-profit ones, all else equal. I do not find strong evidence that financing constraints matter disproportionately for hospitals operating in more competitive markets, supporting the hypothesis that the incremental investment may not be socially efficient.     

Creative Financing and House Prices: A Theoretical Inquiry into the Capitalization Issue

Since buyers offer a premium for access to creative financing (CF), creatively-financed houses will sell for more than otherwise identical houses purchased with standard financing. A commonly suggested method for adjusting house values to eliminate the effects of CF is the "cash equivalence" method, where the CF premium is assumed to equal the present value of savings from CF. This paper shows that in a world with active housing speculators, the cash equivalence approach gives the right answer: In an "arbitrage" equilibrium, house values must differ by exactly the present value of CF savings. Further analysis shows that when capital markets are perfect, each consumer is indifferent between CF and standard financing when arbitrage equilibrium obtains. Without perfect capital markets, however, consumers will strictly prefer one financing mode or the other.     

组织间关系:价值界面与关系租金的获取

价值界面与关系租金概念的提出大大地拓展了获取企业内生性成长中各种资源的空间。本文通过价值界面、关系租金的模块化生产范式和关系型交易范式的分析,指出了价值界面与关系租金对于帕累托边界外推、埃奇沃思方盒改进的经济学意义,并进一步得出了价值界面构成与关系租金获取的四维模型,为网络创新提供了积极的研究视角。     

Housing Return and Construction Cycles

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of the residential housing market. Within the model housing returns, housing construction, mortgage loan terms, and household maintenance behavior are all endogenous. These interacting elements tie expected housing returns to expected changes in family wealth. As a result: (1) families are credit constrained; (2) mortgage loan-to-value ratios can be used to forecast future housing returns; (3) developers acquire land when expected housing returns lie above the rate of interest and then develop when housing returns lie below. Thus, their holdings and construction decisions also forecast housing returns.     

Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility

This paper derives a forward-looking rational expectations house price model and empirically tests its ability to explain short-run fluctuations in real house prices. A novel approach to proxying the imputed rents of owner-occupied housing, as a function of observable housing market fundamentals, is combined with a housing market arbitrage relation to derive a present value model for real house prices. Tests of the rational expectations, nonlinear cross-equation restrictions reject the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations and the asset-based housing price model for quarterly, single-detached house prices in the city of Vancouver, British Columbia from 1979–1991. The model fails to fully capture observed house price dynamics in two real estate booms but tracks real house prices well in less volatile times, suggesting that prices may temporarily deviate from fundamental values in real estate price cycles.     

Tax Limits and Housing Markets: Some Evidence at the State Level

Property tax limitations, as well as other tax and expenditure restrictions on state and local governments in the United States, date back to the late 19th century. A surge in property tax limitation legislation occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and its effects on government revenue, school financing and educational quality have been studied extensively. However, there is surprisingly little literature on how property tax limits affect housing markets. For the first time, we examine the impacts of property tax limitations on housing growth, in addition to their impacts on housing prices. Using state‐level data over 23 years, we find that property tax limits increase housing prices (indexes) by approximately 2%. Property tax limits appear to have little impact on the growth in the housing stock, but education spending limits reduce the number of building permits by over 6%. Our indirect evidence suggests that the number of housing units may grow when property tax limits are accompanied by increases in other own‐source revenues to state government.     

A Note on Inflation and Relative Tenure Prices

This article develops a simplified model of housing costs to analyze the effects of the expected rate of inflation on residential tenure choice. Inflation, working though the Federal Tax Code, affects a number of the components of housing costs in ways which vary between tenure modes. On net, the tax subsidy to owner-occupancy is more positively leveraged with respect to expected inflation than are tax preferences for rental residential real estate. In fact, it is likely that higher expectations of inflation will reduce the after-tax cost of owner-occupied housing.     

住房保障配套制度改革初探

住房保障配套制度是解决城市低收入阶层住房问题和保持社会稳定的重要措施。章重点阐述了住房社会保障体系中保障对象的核定、住房供应系统以及住房社会保障的信贷和利率体系的相互关系。住房保障配套制度的建立必将成为住房制度改革的基础。     

Housing Policy in a Nongrowth Era: Problems of the Northeast United States

The ambivalent results of the federal government's large-scale subsidization of low- and moderate-rent housing production in the early 1970s have produced new preoccupations about the directions federal housing programs should take in the light of sharply divergent growth trends among Regions that have become apparent in 1977. As economic and demographic growth in the South and West Regions poses classic problems of adaption to growth, the Northeast and North Central Regions are faced with either nongrowth or decreases in population and employment. This paper discusses adaptions designed to conserve and improve existing housing resources in areas that require only minimal new residential construction. These adaptions include new levels of state-federal housing coordination to make more intense use of private financing in conjunction with the federal Section 8, Coinsurance, and Section 233(f) programs.     

Who benefits the most? Risk pooling in mortgage loan insurance: Evidence from the Canadian mortgage market

This article evaluates the effect of mortgage loan insurance (MLI), an essential macroprudential tool available to policy makers, on housing affordability, household leverage, and the overall welfare of the economy. A dynamic model of the housing market with heterogeneous households and competitive housing and mortgage markets is constructed and is calibrated to Canadian data. We find that relaxing the mandatory nature of MLI required for mortgages with a loan-to-value ratio of 80% or more, in favor of a counterfactual system where MLI reflects credit risks, dampens demand for housing to purchase and puts downward pressure on house prices. Some of the households with low income and low asset holdings can no longer afford a house; therefore, the aggregate homeownership rate drops. In contrast, demand for rental units increases and rents go up.     

The Impact of Growth Control Regulations on Housing Prices in California*

This paper examines the impact of growth controls on the price of new single-family homes. Four types of growth controls are discussed and each is found to have a significantly different impact on housing prices. Regulations that are imposed by one locality only are first compared to those that are imposed by a locality whose neighbors also control growth. In California, increases in house prices in communities with only local growth controls cannot be distinguished from communities that do not control growth. However, the 1969 to 1976 housing price increase in growth control jurisdictions located in extensively regulated housing markets is significantly higher than in local-only or no-control jurisdictions. In addition, controls that restrict the rate of development are compared to those that specify the quality of development. In the extensively regulated San Francisco Bay area, the 1969 to 1976 housing price increase was 35% higher in rate-controlled communities and 20% higher in quality-controlled communities than in no-control communities.     

当前形势下房地产企业融资方式浅析

近年来我国经济保持高速增长,国内通货膨胀压力持续增大,流动性过剩问题愈加突出,城市房屋销售价格出现了较大幅度增长。当前形势下国家出台了紧缩银根等一系列有关房地产企业的政策,房地产企业遇到了巨大的资金压力,在这种情况下房地产企业应当转变传统融资思维,努力扩大融资途径,积极探索运用多种融资方式,实现企业的可持续发展。分析了当前形势下房地产企业可行的主要融资方式,以及对策和建议。     

Office Rent Determinants in the Chicago Area

This paper analyzes 1990 office asking rents in the Chicago metropolitan area. It carefully specifies a measure of the present value of a lease, taking account of important properties of rent offers. This present value is the dependent variable in the statistical analysis. The sample data analyzed pertain to 543 offices that contain about 80% of the office space in the metropolitan area. The present value of asking rents is related to many building characteristics and to each building's location. The analysis demonstrates that asking rents depend on about fifteen characteristics of the building and on a careful specification of its location.     

Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates

We consider the term structure of lease rates in a general setting where both rents and interest rates are stochastic. The framework is applicable to any leasing market, but we focus on real estate. We find that the ``expectations hypothesis", that is, forward rates are unbiased estimators of future rents, requires similar assumptions as in interest rate theory to hold. To study bias magnitude, simulations are performed using a parameterization of the general framework. Different realistic values for risk aversion and interest rate stochastics can generate widely different shapes of the term structure, holding objective expectations constant. Thus an expected increase in rent is consistent with a downward-sloping term structure and vice versa.