BUREAUCRACY AND TIME CONSISTENCY*

We construct a model that takes seriously the role of bureaucracy in the characterization of time-consistent policies. We argue that if the possibilities for governments to reduce the size of bureaucracy are limited, bureaucracy can be used as a means for influencing future governments. We show that the political process has implications for the size and growth of bureaucracy. Parties in power may hire bureaucrats of the opposite political color. This is a part of the time-consistent policy. Our model also gives an explanation for the growth of bureaucracy. This is a consequence of the time-consistent policies, i.e. policies that partially tie the hands of future governments. We also show that if public sector production is inefficient, the public sector will be too large in the long run. In the short run it may be too small.     

PROBLEMS OF IDENTIFYING AND MEASURING INTERMEDIATE (PRODUCER) SERVICES IN THE COMPILATION AND USE OF INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES*

The paper is mainly concerned with statistical problems relating to intermediate services that arise in the construction of national input-output (I–O) tables. Though these problems are sometimes discussed in the literature, their precise nature is usually not spelled out in any detail and this is done in the paper. The problems are closely related to the company-establishment statistical dichotomy permeating the ultimate sources and allocation of intermediate services. Important examples can be found regarding the statistical treatment of head offices, research and development expenditures, and international trade of intermediate services. Presently used procedures for Canadian and U.S. I–O compilation show evidence of statistical inconsistencies and lack an appropriate framework to utilize full information. The paper suggests a possible approach for reconciling company and establishment data based on industrial organization linkage studies at the microlevel. Considerable empirical support is offered, using various official Canadian statistical publications, to show that the suggested approach is both feasible and has desirable properties. The paper goes on to argue that the contemporary information technology revolution has profound implications for I–O compilation and use with special reference to intermediate services. Four major implications are explained in the context of the growing microelectronics technological change and related literature. Some basic suggestions are put forward with regard to joint-cost allocation and inter temporal comparisons problems with respect to I–O compilation. It also appears that some fundamental rethinking of commonly accepted standard industrial classification conventions may be called for in the near future if I–O tables are to remain relevant and viable. The paper thus features a somewhat broader view of I–O statistical problems than usual and attempts to show that this view is potentially appropriate to questions of economic policy formulation.     

EXTERNAL BALANCE SHEETS: CONCEPTS AND EMPIRICAL APPROXIMATION*

International financial relationships should be interpreted in the context of a comprehensive conceptual framework; this paper advocates the use of concepts developed to measure and analyze balance of payments flows. Broad-based, empirical estimates of the international wealth of most countries of the western world are presented on the basis of cumulating balance of payments flows over a lengthy period. Among the more interesting aspects of the results are: the importance of intra-industrial country capital flows in a global context; the propensity of debtors to regard a larger share of their aggregate external debt as long term than do their creditors; the overwhelming importance of banks located in the industrial countries in global external asset and liability positions, and the preponderance of short-term positions taken by those banks; and the tendency for balance of payments records to report more direct investment assets than liabilities. The paper also contains some observations, based on the cumulations of balance of payments capital flows, concerning the nature and size of certain deficiencies in alternative sources–particularly the World Bank's Debtor Reporting System, and the Bank for International Settlements' banking data–of information on outstanding external debt positions.     

EXCHANGE RATE PROBLEMS IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTING OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES*

Developing countries which typically have import surpluses and inflationary pressures because of insufficient savings are prone to use indirect taxes on imports (Tm) and subsidization of exports (Sx) in order to prevent deterioration of the balance of trade. If these substitutes for devaluation are included in the net indirect tax component of product at current market prices (Ym) the import surplus is likely to be understated, and Ym upward biased. This distortion will be avoided if imports and exports are measured at effective exchange rates (ER), that is, at official rates (OR) plus Tm and Sx respectively, and if (Tm - Sx) is deducted from the net indirect tax component of Ym. Only in this manner become imports and exports consistent with the other uses and resources at market prices and can be articulated with them. At base-year prices the volume index of product at OR diverges from that of ER to the degree that the composition of imports and exports in regard to tax and subsidy rates computed ad valorem significantly changes. Such a case is similar to that of the price indexes of imports and exports moving in diverging proportions: the trade balance at base-year prices will differ from that at current prices. The resulting discrepancies in national accounts have led to proposals of deflating, for example, exports by the price index of imports. Suchlike approaches are incompatible with the principle of national accounting that prices are supposed already to measure substitution values. Deflating exports by import prices means reintroducing substitution values, as does, for example, deflation of incomes by a consumer price index. Correspondingly, since the trade balance at ER conceptually expresses the value of imports at domestic market prices as compared to the corresponding domestic market value of exports, and if at ER the trade balance diverges from that at OR, the former balance has an important meaning (as has the trade balance at base-year prices as compared to that at current prices) and the resulting discrepancy between the two measures should not be removed merely for the sake of accounting smoothness. In contrast to the market price approach, the measurement of product at base-year factor cost is indifferent to the measurement of the trade balance at ER and at OR. It is, therefore, proposed in countries in which part of import taxation and export subsidization substitutes for devaluation, to record imports and exports in the national accounts at effective exchange rates, and to correct the net indirect tax component of product correspondingly. Imports and exports at official exchange rates should be shown within the balance of payments, and the latter separately as a memorandum item.     

TIME CONSISTENCY IN ALTERNATING‐MOVE POLICY GAMES*

We examine alternating‐move policy games where the government and the private sector alternate their moves. In contrast with the standard policy game, the set of equilibrium payoffs of the present model is bounded away from the payoff under the one‐shot Nash equilibrium, called the Kydland–Prescott outcome, and the upper bound is close to the payoff under the optimal policy (called the Ramsey policy) if the government is sufficiently patient. In other words, the Kydland–Prescott outcome is not time consistent, while the Ramsey outcome could be approximated by a time‐consistent policy of the same game.     

时间地理学的基本概念与表示方法

时间地理学是研究各种制约条件下人的行为时空间特征地理学。本文在介绍时间地理学基本问题提出背景基础上．说明时间地理学的基本概念和表示方法、图解了时间地理学核心概念中的三大制约。     

CORRUPTION AND THE ANTI-CORRUPTION MOVEMENT: THE MODELLING AND ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION IN CHINA*

In this paper the author offers an explanation for the increasing extent of China's corruption problem during the past several years. A mathematical model is constructed, in which the conflicts among three groups of the Chinese population in the anti-corruption movement are modelled as a two person game. The existence of Nash equilibrium is discussed. It is pointed out that the corruption level may increase as the GNP grows, as long as the majority of the people continue to be strategically passive. While the focus of this paper is on China's present situation, the author believes that this method of modelling and of analysis is also applicable to some other autocratic countries in the world.     

MICROBUSINESS ACCOUNTING AND MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTING: THE LIMITS TO CONSISTENCY*

The paper is concerned with analyzing the consistency problem that arises when the macroenterprise sector of a nation's accounting system is put on a microdata foundation. This foundation is composed of sets of microbusiness accounts, after some appropriate rearrangements and reclassifications. We pose the question: can the macroenterprise sector accounts be regarded as a consolidation of (observed) microbusiness accounts? The answer is positive from a purely conceptual viewpoint, but negative from a statistical viewpoint which preserves the decision-making records of microbusiness units. The latter phenomenon is referred to as the limits to (statistical) consistency while attempting to maintain the viability of a national accounting system. The analysis proceeds by exploiting the structural properties of market transactions matrices for a nation's economy. The results are sufficiently general to encompass the case where the transaction matrices are initially characterized by both sectoral discrepancies and transaction flow category discrepancies. In this general context it is shown that the statistical inconsistency potentially resulting from the replacement of the macroenterprise sector by an aggregation of microbusiness units has certain properties with economic meaning. This leads to a discussion that explains the ultimate rationale of statistical inconsistency: the fact that different microeconomic decision units may have different views and knowledge of common market transactions. The paper concludes with some implications for future research that appear to follow from the historical development of the subject matter.     

NEEDS FOR CONSISTENCY AND FLEXIBILITY IN MEASURES OF REAL PRODUCT BY INDUSTRY1

Study of relationships between outputs, inputs, prices, and final demands in the United States can be strengthened by: (1) eliminating disparities in official measures of output (mainly the Index of Industrial Production and Real Gross National Product), and (2) obtaining agreement on the conceptual framework for studying these relationships. Real Gross Product has provided a consistent framework for study of productivity and prices for the total economy and for broad industry groups, but has not easily permitted the analysis of commodity detail particularly for intermediate commodities. Industrial Production, on the other hand, has considerably extended the detailed analysis of commodity output but has not provided a basis for systematic analysis of productivity and prices within a consistent framework for the total economy. This paper illustrates the effect of some of the disparities between Industrial Production and Gross Product in manufacturing on the analysis of relations between prices and output and prices and productivity. This is done for the 1954–1958 period when benchmark data are available for both measures. Inconsistencies for a number of industries cause difficulties in analyzing the interplay of demand and cost influences on price changes; for example, industries which rise above average in output and below in price in one measure are not the same as those in similar price-quantity relationships in the other measure. The paper concludes by recommending improvements in data and concept in order to eliminate some of the disparities and to enable analysts to reap the benefits of both types of measures of real output.     

我国发展知识经济存在的问题及应采取的对策

本文从知识经济的主要特征出发,分析了中国发展知识经济所面临的问题和具有的有利条件,针对中国国情提出了中国发展知识经济应采取的对策和方案。面临的问题主要有:科技体系结构存在缺陷,工业化尚未完成,经济结构低级化,人力资源数量有余而质量欠佳以及社会经济宏观调控能力差等。中国发展知识经济应采取以下的方案和对策:实施科教兴国战略,增强国家的宏观调控能力,加强政府部门的科学决策能力,搞好知识经济人才的选拔,办好高新技术产业开发区,用高新技术改造传统产业以及发展知识含量高的服务业和信息业等。