Life insurance in a contingent claim framework: Pricing and regulatory implications

In this paper we develop a contingent claim model to evaluate the equity and liabilities of a life insurance company. The limited liability of shareholders is explicitly modelled. We focus on a specific type of life insurance policy—namely, the profit-sharing policy. In this policy, the policyholder is entitled to a guaranteed interest rate and a percentage of the company's yearly financial revenues. The implicit equilibrium interest rate and profit-sharing ratio are derived and analyzed. We finally discuss regulatory measures frequently encountered in the life insurance business such as rate ceilings, capital ratios, and asset restrictions.     

Deposit rate ceilings and monetary transmission in the US

Establishing the existence and nature of changes in the conduct and transmission of monetary policy is key in understanding the remarkable macroeconomic performance of the US since the mid-1980s. This paper presents evidence on a phenomenon of disintermediation occurring during the major recessions in the 1960s and 1970s, but absent ever since, and shows that disintermediation is closely linked to the existence of deposit rate ceilings under regulation Q. In a monetary DSGE model that incorporates deposit rate ceilings as occasionally binding constraints, the regulation alters the behavior of money aggregates and exacerbates the drop in economic activity following a monetary tightening. The results of a threshold VAR lend support to the main theoretical predictions of the model.     

Taxation of Financial Assets in Developing Countries

In developing countries most of the financial assets are depositsat commercial banks. This article focuses on the implicit taxationof financial assets through seigniorage, reserve requirements,lending targets, and interest ceilings combined with inflation.The impact of taxation on financial deepening increases significantlywith the tax rate, as shown by cross-sectional and time seriesdata for selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and SoutheastAsia. The problem of measuring revenue is examined, and theefficiency cost of taxation is analyzed in a Harberger framework.Although taxes on financial assets have a low administrativecost, the excess burden caused by the misallocation of resourcesis probably a much higher fraction of revenues than that ofother taxes.     

Deposit interest rate ceilings as credit supply shifters: Bank level evidence on the effects of Regulation Q

How did deposit interest rate ceilings, an important feature of the U.S. regulatory regime until the mid-1980s, affect individual banks’ lending and the transmission of monetary policy to credit? I estimate the effect of deposit rate ceilings inscribed in Regulation Q on commercial banks’ credit growth using a historical bank level data set starting in 1959. Banks’ credit growth contracted sharply when legally fixed deposit rate ceilings were binding. Interaction terms with monetary policy suggest that the policy impact on bank level credit growth was non-linear and significantly larger when rate ceilings were in place. Bank size and capitalization mitigate these effects. At the bank level, short-term interest rates exceeding the legally fixed deposit rate ceilings identify policy induced credit supply shifts that disappeared with deposit rate deregulation and thus weakened the bank lending channel substantially since the early 1980s.     

An Analysis of the Impact of Deposit Rate Ceilings on the Market Values of Thrift Institutions

This paper examines the impact of changes in deposit interest rate regulations on the common stock values of savings and loan institutions. The analysis indicates that stockholder-owned savings and loans (S & L's) have experienced statistically significant declines in equity market values at the announcement of the removal of ceilings on certain consumer (small saver) certificate accounts and the introduction of short term variable rate money market certificates. We find the evidence to be consistent with the hypothesis that S & L's have earned economic rents from restrictions on interest rates paid to small saver accounts, and that relaxation of interest rate ceilings has reduced these rents.     

Ageing and the tax implied in public pension schemes: simulations for selected OECD countries

A key figure suited to measuring intergenerational imbalances in unfunded public pension schemes is given by the ‘implicit tax rate’ imposed on each generation's lifetime income. The implicit tax arises from the fact that, quite generally, pension benefits fall short of actuarial returns to contributions paid to these systems while actively working. Under current pension policies, implicit tax rates will increase sharply for younger generations in most industrialised countries. In this paper, this is illustrated for the cases of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, the UK and the USA. Nevertheless, there are remarkable differences across countries regarding both the level of implicit taxes and their development over successive age cohorts, which can be attributed to differences in ageing processes and in the institutional features of national pension systems. In addition, we can demonstrate how effective different approaches to pension reform are in smoothing the intergenerational profile of implicit tax rates.     

The effect of deposit-rate ceilings on bank risk: A comment

In a recent issue of this journal, Mingo (1978) analyzed the effect of deposit-rate ceilings on bank risk. The analysis showed that deposit-rate ceilings increase a bank's total risk. The purpose of this note is to examine a different but related question: Is systematic risk affected by Regulation Q ceilings ceteris paribus? The results of our empirical test indicate that systematic risk is not affected by deposit-rate ceilings. Taken together then, Mingo's and the present results show that removal of deposit-rate ceilings would not increase bank risk.     

An Analysis of the Impact of Interest Rate Ceilings

The first aim of this study is to estimate the interest rates paid for motor vehicle loans. The second aim is to identify those potential borrowers most likely to be rationed out of the market by the imposition of rate ceilings. Rate ceilings constrain the rates paid by successful loan applicants to be no greater than the applicable ceiling level. These constraints are dealt with by treating the interest rate paid as a variable truncated at the ceiling level. Assuming the dependent variable is truncated normal, consistent estimates are obtained by employing the maximum likelihood method of Hausman and Wise.     

Do mortgage rates vary based on household default characteristics? Evidence on rate sorting and credit rationing

Credit screening models suggest that lenders vary loan rates and debt ceilings across applicants on the basis of credit risk. We argue that regulatory constraints such as Fair Lending Laws may preclude rate sorting while increasing lender use of debt ceilings to adjust for applicant credit risk. Using household data from the 1983 SCF, we find that mortgage rates do not vary with applicant credit risk whereas related studies find that debt ceilings vary with borrower risk attributes. Together, these findings support arguments that regulatory constraints reduce rate sorting while increasing the use of non-price terms in the mortgage contract.     

Analysts’ pre-tax income forecasts and the tax expense anomaly

This paper examines whether analysts’ pre-tax income forecasts mitigate the tax expense anomaly documented by Thomas and Zhang (J Account Res 49:791–821, 2011). They find that seasonal changes in quarterly income tax expense are positively related to future returns after controlling for the earnings surprise and conclude that investors underreact to value-relevant information in tax expense. When analysts issue both earnings and pre-tax income forecasts, they implicitly provide a forecast of income tax expense. We posit that this implicit forecast helps investors recognize the persistence of current tax expense surprise for future earnings. Accordingly, we expect that mispricing of tax expense will be less severe for firms with earnings and pre-tax income forecasts. As expected, we find that the presence of pre-tax income forecasts significantly weakens the positive relation between tax expense surprise and future returns, consistent with analysts’ implicit forecasts of tax expense mitigating the tax expense anomaly.     

An analysis of intra-industry differences in the effect of regulation: The case of deposit rate ceilings

This study examines the impact of deposit rate ceiling changes on the market value of commercial banks and stock savings and loan associations. Statistically significant increases in market value are found on announcement of the removal of ceilings on large denomination certificates of deposit. In contrast, retail commercial banks and savings and loans experienced declines in value on announcement of the elimination or relaxation of deposit rate ceilings on small denomination consumer accounts. In addition, for all events analyzed, significant differences were found in the effect of ceiling changes on the market value of wholesale and retail commercial banks.     

Price Regulation in Property-Liability Insurance: A Contingent-Claims Approach

A discrete-time option-pricing model is used to derive the “fair” rate of return for the property-liability insurance firm. The rationale for the use of this model is that the financial claims of shareholders, policyholders, and tax authorities can be modeled as European options written on the income generated by the insurer's asset portfolio. This portfolio consists mostly of traded financial assets and is therefore relatively easy to value. By setting the value of the shareholders' option equal to the initial surplus, an implicit solution for the fair insurance price may be derived. Unlike previous insurance regulatory models, this approach addresses the ruin probability of the insurer, as well as nonlinear tax effects.     

FOREIGN-CURRENCY OPTIONS, EX ANTE EXCHANGE-RATE VOLATILITY, AND MARKET EFFICIENCY: AN EMPIRICAL TEST

“The currency option's attraction results from the volatility of foreign-exchange markets, where rates can move as much as 3 percent in a day” (M. Sesit, Wall Street Journal, April 20, 1984, p. 25). This study compares the foreign-exchange rate implicit volatility of call options and put options that are written on a foreign currency. These implicit volatilities should be equal, and equal to the volatility of the proportional change in the exchange rate, given that option prices are efficient and that the foreign-currency option pricing model described by Biger and Hull holds. The foreign-currency options that are examined in this study are the British pound, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and West German mark. The results of this study support the notions of market efficiency and put-call parity.     

收入不平等、政府支出与实际汇率——基于跨国面板数据的研究

已有较多研究讨论了实际汇率的决定因素,而从收入不平等角度出发的研究并不多。本文搜集和整理了172个国家和地区1970年到2016年的跨国面板数据,分析了收入不平等对一国实际汇率的影响,并引入政府支出探究了收入分配对非贸易品部门和实际汇率的影响机制。实证检验结果表明,对于非OECD国家,收入不平等和实际汇率显著负相关,即收入越不平等,实际汇率高估越严重,而在OECD国家中这一现象并不存在。进一步的影响机制分析发现,对于非OECD国家,一国收入不平等加剧会导致该国政府支出增多,从而扩大了非贸易品部门规模,导致非贸易品的相对价格上升,使得实际汇率高估。     

The microeconomics of deposit rate ceilings : Inferences for NOW accounts and interest on checking accounts

This paper examines the specific set of market and product conditions which could support the theoretical argument, widely held among commercial bankers, that deposit rate ceilings, especially the prohibition of interest on checking accounts, are beneficial to bank earnings. The analysis points to the conclusion that ceilings are beneficial to bankers only if (a) bank deposits are homogeneous goods, (b) deposit markets are non-collusive oligopsonies, and (c) the regulated ceiling rate is not set too far below the ceiling that would exist in an unregulated monopsony. Empirical studies done elsewhere seem to indicate that none of these three necessary conditions are normally met in the marketplace. The NOW account, which is really an interest-bearing checking account, also extends demand deposit powers to non-bank thrift institutions. Under our analysis, the NOW account adds to the number of competitors offering checking-type deposits, driving up the cost of funds, other things equal, to the oligopsonist banker — perhaps by enough to offset the cost-reducing effect of repeal of the interest prohibition.     

Can Africa's Saving Collapse Be Reversed?

Private saving in Sub-Saharan Africa declined from more than11 percent of disposable income in the 1970s to less than 8percent in the 1980s and only partially recovered (to less than9 percent) in the 1990s. This article analyzes the determinantsof private saving in Sub-Saharan Africa, seeking to explainthe region's dismal performance and identify policies that couldhelp to reverse the region's decline in saving. The analysisshows that in Sub-Saharan Africa causality runs from growthto investment (and perhaps to private saving), whereas a risein the saving rate Granger-causes an increase in investment.Foreign aid Granger-causes a reduction in both saving and investment,and investment also Granger-causes an increase in foreign aid.The empirical analysis of private saving in Sub-Saharan Africaand other regions over 1970–95 suggests that private savingin Africa can be explained by standard behavioral models. Accordingto these models private saving in Africa lags behind that inother regions (most notably, the high performing Asian economies)because of the region's lower per capita income, high young-agedependency ratio, and high dependence on aid. The combined effectsof these factors substantially outweigh Africa's advantage fromits lower public saving and higher government consumption. Finally,analysis of the experiences of Kenya, Zimbabwe, and Botswanaprovides further insight into the saving process in Sub-SaharanAfrica.     

Reducing Child Malnutrition: How Far Does Income Growth Take Us?

How rapidly will child malnutrition respond to income growth?This article explores that question using household survey datafrom 12 countries as well as data on malnutrition rates in across-section of countries since the 1970s. Both forms of analysisyield similar results. Increases in income at the householdand national levels imply similar rates of reduction in malnutrition.Using these estimates and better than historical income growthrates, the article finds that the Millennium Development Goalof halving the prevalence of underweight children by 2015 isunlikely to be met through income growth alone. What is neededto accelerate reductions in malnutrition is a balanced strategyof income growth and investment in more direct interventions.     

The Slow Adjustment of Aggregate Consumption to Permanent Income

This paper investigates the relationship between aggregate consumption and permanent income using a new approach to the estimation of cointegrated systems that builds on Stock and Watson's common stochastic trends representation. The permanent and transitory movements in aggregate income and consumption are estimated directly using the Kalman filter and are allowed to be correlated. This approach avoids any implicit restriction that permanent income be as smooth as consumption. Instead, permanent income appears to be relatively volatile, with consumption adjusting toward it only slowly over time. These results provide a clear rejection of the standard version of the permanent income hypothesis and are suggestive of alternative theories of consumption behavior such as habit formation or precautionary savings.     

Discussion of “Using earnings forecasts to simultaneously estimate firm-specific cost of equity and long-term growth”

Accounting-based valuation models allow us to develop rigorous estimates of either value or the expected rate of return on equity capital (i.e., ERR) without making steady-state forecasts that rely on ad hoc assumptions about dividend policy. Hence, these models have great potential. Their ultimate usefulness, however, depends on the extent to which users of them make assumptions about future residual income that are consistent with the underlying accounting. Nekrasov and Ogneva contribute by developing a methodology that allows us to integrate information about accounting attributes such as conservatism into our estimates of the growth rate in residual income. Hence, their methodology can be used to improve our understanding of the role that conservatism plays in determining growth. This, in turn, improves our ability to estimate key parameters such as value and the expected rate of return on equity capital.     

Empirical Evidence on the Implicit Determinants of Compensation in Big 4 Audit Partnerships

This study investigates the implicit financial incentives of individual Big 4 audit partners by examining the association between a partner's compensation and characteristics of the audit firm, audit partner, and individual partner clientele for Big 4 firms in Sweden. Using tax and financial data for individual audit partners and clients, our empirical findings indicate that there is significant variation in the implicit determinants that are associated with compensation across the Big 4. We find that audit partners’ compensation is positively associated with the size of their clientele or the number of publicly traded clients, both of which represent revenue‐generating opportunities. Similarly, compensation and developing an industry specialization are positively related. In three firms, gaining clients is clearly related to an increase in compensation, while losing a client is associated with a reduction in partner income in only one firm. We find that audit partner income is more sensitive to performance‐related incentives, such as attracting new clients, as partners progress in their career. Finally, we find evidence that audit failures, proxied by reporting errors related to issuing a going concern opinion, are associated with lower compensation. These results should be of interest to the auditing profession, audit firms, and regulators when they consider the effects of implicit incentives of partner compensation on audit quality.