Has NAFTA Increased Labor Market Integration between the United States and Mexico?

This article analyzes three criteria for labor market integrationbetween Mexico and the United States before and since the NorthAmerican Free Trade Agreement: the responsiveness of Mexicanwages to US wage shocks, the speed at which relative wages returnto a long-run differential, and changes in the rate of convergenceof absolute wages. Tests for increased integration using thesethree criteria generate mixed results, which are then exploredby directly incorporating trade, foreign direct investment (FDI),and migration. The results suggest that trade and FDI did infact positively contribute to integration but that the increasein border enforcement depressed Mexican wages, masking the positivebenefits.     

Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

We exploit differences across U.S. states' exposure to trade to study the effects of changes in the exchange rate on economic activity. Across states, trade-weighted exchange rate depreciations are associated with increased state exports, reduced state unemployment, and higher state hours worked. The effects are particularly strong during periods of economic slack. A multiregion model with interstate trade and labor flows, calibrated to match state-level trade data and migration flows, replicates the empirical relationship between exchange rates and unemployment. The high degree of interstate trade plays an important role in transmitting shocks across states in the first year, whereas interstate migration shapes cross-sectional patterns in later years. We use the model to study the regional effects of tariffs in the United States. The model suggests that a 25% Chinese import tariff on U.S. goods would be felt throughout the United States, even in states with small direct linkages to China, raising unemployment rates by 0.2 to 0.7 percentage points in the short run.     

Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico since the Approval of NAFTA

Cross-country panel data are used to assess the effect of free-tradeagreements on flows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Free-tradeagreements are found to have a significant positive effect onFDI flows, and free-trade agreements are found to matter morefor the smaller members of the agreement. For example, the NorthAmerican Free-Trade Agreement’s (NAFTA) effect on FDIflows into Mexico is much larger than its effect on flows intothe United States. These cross-country results are used to assessNAFTA’s effect on FDI flows into Mexico. After controllingfor a set of other factors—such as an increase in worldwideFDI flows—the trade agreement is found to generate FDIflows nearly 60 percent higher than they would have been withoutthe agreement.     

Tracking NAFTA's Shadow 10 Years on: Introduction to the Symposium

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is arguablythe first "case study" of what might be expected from the increasingnumber of preferential trade agreements involving both developedand developing economies. Ten years after the treaty’sinception, it is time to assess how its outcomes compare withinitial expectations. The articles in this symposium issue provideinsights into the effects of NAFTA on economic geography, trade,wages and migration, and foreign investment from Mexico’sperspective. The contributions paint a complex post-NAFTA realitycharacterized by persistent intrabloc trade barriers, interregionalinequality within Mexico, labor market outcomes that seem closelytied to migration patterns and international trade and investment,and foreign investment flows that appear weakly related to tradeagreements. NAFTA seems to be the first trade agreement in historyfor which the traditional static trade creation or diversioneffects are likely negligible—and hard to identify inany case.     

The Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in Insurance Services

In light of the growing significance of trade in financial services, and the emphasis placed on trade in financial services during the Uruguay round of trade negotiations, this article is the first study of the determinants of intra‐industry trade (IIT) in insurance services. The article analyzes and measures the magnitude of IIT in insurance services for the United States. The empirical results of the determinants of IIT indicate that foreign direct investment in insurance services (FDI) is a significant contributor to the volume of trade in insurance services. These empirical findings confirm the new theoretical trade models that, unlike the traditional trade theory that considered trade and foreign direct investment in insurance services as substitutes, trade and FDI complement each other and hence multinational insurance companies are contributing to an increase in the volume of trade in insurance services. Furthermore, this study shows that trade intensity between the United States and its trading partners leads to product differentiation in insurance services and hence an increase in consumer welfare.     

China as the Workshop of the World: Measuring the Role of Foreign Direct Investment Through Manufacturing Sectors and Products

In this paper, we focus on the role of China's manufacturing in the international division of labor from the perspective of foreign direct investment (FDI). We first discuss the contribution made by China's manufacturing sector to capital accumulation, manifested internally by domestic oversaving and externally by China's trade surplus. China's output under various conditions is then measured, and the role of FDI in different manufacturing industries, differentiated according to technological type, is examined. Deconstructing the trade balance and highlighting the role of processing, the analysis provides details on the role of FDI in China's merchandise trade. The analysis also shows that China's distorted research and development expenditure in various manufacturing industries is related to lack of innovation capacity in the high-technology industries dominated by FDI.     

Role of digital finance,investment, and trade in technological progress

The primary purpose of this study is to evaluate the impacts of digital finance, trade, and investment on technological progress in 30 developing Asian economies by employing the FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS) technique and annual data from 2000 to 2020. The findings concluded that digital finance has a positive impact on technology progress. Moreover, trade liberalization may accelerate technological progress. Foreign direct investment has no significant coefficient, interpreting that inward FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) to the examined developing Asian economies is unrelated to technological progress. The causality test confirmed a neutrality hypothesis for the causal relationship between FDI and technological progress. Furthermore, the bi-directional linkage between trade openness and technological progress is confirmed. The paper recommends that developing economies increase the share of investment in technological progress, prioritization of regionalism and trade multilateralism for technology transfer, and establishment of a “digital financial inclusion” framework.     

Capital Account Openness,International Trade,and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation

New empirical estimates of the effects of capital restrictions on growth support capital account liberalization, especially for developed countries. Capital restrictions reduce the benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth in developing countries. Estimation results for long-term capital flows demonstrate that countries with higher flows grow faster, challenging the belief that countries must attain a threshold level of development or human capital to benefit from capital inflows. Moreover, findings show that trade with developed countries and FDI inflows are substitutes in developing countries. Overall, the results support capital account liberalization in developed and developing countries.     

Sectoral analysis of foreign direct investment and growth in the developed countries

Empirical studies on foreign direct investment (FDI) and growth in developed countries have yielded conflicting results using cross-country regressions. We use sectoral data for a group of six country members of the OECD. Our paper is the first to identify the sector-specific impact of FDI on growth in the developed countries. Our results show that FDI has positive, or no statistically discernible, effect on economic growth directly and through its interaction with labor. Moreover, we find the effects seem to be very different across countries and economic sectors.     

经济全球化、劳动力转移与我国沿海-内陆地区工资差距的实证分析

采用Theil指数量化了我国地区工资差距,并将其分解为沿海和内陆地区内和地区间的工资差距;分析FDI、出口溢出、劳动力转移等影响沿海一内陆工资差距的机制,建立实证模型,采用我国省际面板数据进行了实证研究.结论表明,FDI的地区分布差距对于工资差距的影响表现为倒U型机制,地区间的出口溢出和跨地区的劳动力转移扩大了沿海一内陆工资差距,教育投入、技术进步等也是影响地区工资差距的重要因素.     

Bilateral Export Trade,Outward and Inward FDI: A Dynamic Gravity Model Approach Using Sectoral Data from Malaysia

In light of a change in the foreign direct investment (FDI) landscape such as the rapid growth of outward FDI from Malaysia since 2007, this article ascertains the possible impact of inward and outward FDI on Malaysia’s bilateral export trade at the sectoral level, using a dynamic gravity approach. The findings reveal that both inward and outward FDI are complementary to bilateral export trade in the services, mining, and manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, the distance elasticity and the real effective exchange rate have a different negative impact on different sectors. Overall, the sectoral bilateral exports could not insulate against external events.     

Sources of growth in international insurance services

The purpose of this paper is to analyse international insurance services. It defines international insurance services in the context of the new definition of trade in financial services. Cross-border trade and foreign direct investment in insurance services are categorised into four distinct groups, based on the movement of providers and receivers of insurance services. The empirical results of a model of the movement of providers in insurance services indicate that insurance premiums and the national income of the host countries contribute to the expansion of multinational insurance companies. Furthermore, bilateral trade, labor costs, economic growth and the cost of capital are also contributing to the expansion of international insurance services. In addition, the empirical results indicate that FDI in banking is a complement to the expansion of international insurance services.     

商业信用合同的履行概率,其外部性及现金需求——中国案例

本文测算了商业信用合同违约风险对商业贸易和现金需求的影响。结果显示,外国直接投资企业为其贸易伙伴提供了大量商业信用,而中国的企业,无论是私营,还是国有企业,他们交易实行货到即时付款的比例很高。外国直接投资企业之所以是经济交易中信贷的提供者,是因为他们具有较高的商业信用合同执行技术(contract enforcement technology)。我们还发现商业信用合同的执行技术主要包括贸易物品的竞争力、竞争幅度、与地方政府的关系以及公司治理的性质。一个企业具有较高的合同执行概率,就可能提供大量的商业信用,并获得更大的交易量。合同执行技术对贸易交易量的弹性估计约为2.2。模拟显示如果合同执行概率提高,分布在75%,贸易交易量可增加24%,商业信用规模可增加30%。由于商业信用合约的不完备而导致的经济损失则是巨大的。此外,我们证实,高的商业信用合同执行技术通过商业信用量和交易量的增加而在经济中产生正外部效应。     

Social Trust,Rule of Law,and Economic Exchange: Evidence from China and Its Major Trading Partners

ABSTRACT

Using cross-country panel data and employing the instrumental variable generalized method of moments (GMM) method, this article examines the effect of social trust on economic exchange between China and its major trading partners over the period 2005–2013. Social trust significantly increases bilateral trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) between China and its partners, and this effect is much stronger in nonmember countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) than OECD member countries. Further exploration suggests that the heterogeneity could be explained by the substitution relationship between social trust and the rule of law: social trust matters more in countries where the rule of law is weaker. We also .find that the impact of trust on trade and FDI is weaker in countries that have greater language similarity to China, are adjacent to China, or are common-law-origin countries. Based on these results, in implementing the Belt and Road Initiative, the Chinese government and companies should not only focus on each country’s legal norms but also attach importance to the role of social capital in international economic exchange.     

中美贸易对美国就业影响的重新评价 ——基于全球价值链视角

基于全球价值链视角,利用出口增加值分解,运用WIOD数据库2000-2014年间投入产出数据和SEA就业数据,重新度量中美贸易对美国就业的带动和挤出效应。结果表明：美国直接出口中国所带动的本土制造业就业人数要高于服务业人数;就业挤出中,中国出口美国主要挤出的是美国知识密集型制造业,其他类型的行业就业挤出相对较少;中美贸易对美国就业的整体效应为正值,中美贸易对美国制造业和总就业具有一定的促进作用。     

International investment in financial services

This paper analyzes and models the significant components of international trade in financial services, namely, foreign direct investment in banking for the US, the UK and Germany. It distinguishes between banks' activities abroad and FDI in banking by banks and non-banks. A model for FDI in banking is proposed which contains certain explanatory variables peculiar to FDI in banking as compared to FDI in manufacturing. The components of the model of FDI in banking is different from those models designed to explain banks activities abroad. The empirical results of this study of FDI in banking indicate that bilateral trade, banks' foreign assets, the cost of capital, relative economic growth, exchange rates and FDI in non-finance industries are the major determinants of foreign investment in banking.     

Trade, Production, and Protection Database, 1976-2004

The database described in this article provides researcherswith a broad set of data on trade, production, and protectionfor 28 manufacturing sectors at the three-digit level of theInternational Standard Industrial Classification, Revision 2.The database covers up to 100 developing and developed countriesover the period 1976–2004, but data availability variesby country and year. The trade, production, and protection databaseis available online and can be freely accessed through the WorldBank trade website.     

Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect Against "Sudden Stops"?

There is a debate on whether some forms of financial flows offerbetter protection against crises than others. Using a largepanel data set that includes advanced, emerging, and developingeconomies during 1970–2003, this article analyzes thebehavior of several types of flows: foreign direct investment(FDI), portfolio equity investment, portfolio debt investment,other flows to the official sector, other flows to banks, andother flows to the nonbank private sector. Differences acrosstypes of flows are limited with respect to volatility, persistence,cross-country comovement, and correlation with growth at homeor in the world economy. However, consistent with conventionalwisdom, FDI is the least volatile form of financial flow, whenthe average size of net or gross flows is taken into account.The differences are striking during "sudden stops" in financialflows (defined as drops in total net financial inflows of morethan percentage points of GDP compared with the previous year).In such episodes, FDI is remarkably stable, and portfolio equityseems to play a limited role. Portfolio debt experiences a reversal,though it recovers relatively quickly, and other flows (includingbank loans and trade credit) experience severe drops and oftenremain depressed for a few years.     

Infrastructure, Geographical Disadvantage, Transport Costs, and Trade

The authors use different data sets to investigate the dependenceof transport costs on geography and infrastructure. Infrastructureis an important determinant of transport costs, especially forlandlocked countries. Analysis of bilateral trade data confirmsthe importance of infrastructure and gives an estimate of theelasticity of trade flows with respect to the trade cost factorof around –3. A deterioration of infrastructure from themedian to the 75th percentile raises transport costs by 12 percentagepoints and reduces trade volumes by 28 percent. Analysis ofAfrican trade flows indicates that their relatively low levelis largely due to poor infrastructure.     

Do Taxes Matter for Foreign Direct Investment?

The tax sensitivity of foreign direct investment (FDI) has importantpolicy implications. If FDI is not responsive to taxation, thenit may be an appropriate target for taxation by the host country.This question is examined for Mexico by estimating the responseof FDI from retained earnings and transfers from abroad to thetax regimes in Mexico and the home country, the credit statusof multinationals, country risk factors, and regulatory andtrade regimes in Mexico. FDI in Mexico is found to be sensitiveto the tax regimes in Mexico and the United States, the creditstatus of multinationals, country credit ratings, and the regulatoryenvironment. Thus Mexico's current policies to dismantle regulationsand employ a tax system competitive with the United States areexpected to have salutory effects on FDI in Mexico.