Using survey data to resolve the exchange risk exposure puzzle: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms

This paper examines the effect of unexpected exchange rate movements on U.S. shareholder wealth. Empirical results based on a sample of 634 U.S. multinational firms (1) confirm previously reported evidence that the disaggregation of the worldwide trade-weighted U.S. dollar exchange rate index into seven region-specific trade-weighted indices increases the precision and significance of exposure estimates; (2) show that models assuming that changes in spot exchange rates are unanticipated are frequently misspecified and, thus, unable to correctly detect the impact of currency movements on firm value; (3) reveal that forward and survey expectations enable us to distinguish between the effect of ‘realized’ and ‘unexpected’ currency movements; and (4) reveal that investors making pricing and hedging decisions prefer to use the information contained in short-term forward and survey expectation rates to the information included in long-term forecasts.     

Multiproduct firms and price-setting: Theory and evidence from U.S. producer prices

Using micro-data on U.S. producer prices, we establish three new facts about price setting by multi-product firms. First, firms selling more goods adjust prices more frequently but on average by smaller amounts. Moreover, their fraction of positive price changes is lower and the dispersion of price changes is higher. Second, price changes within firms are substantially synchronized, which plays a dominant role in explaining pricing dynamics. Third, firms selling more goods have greater within-firm synchronization of price changes. A model with trend inflation and firm-specific menu costs where firms are subject to idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks matches the empirical findings.     

Exchange rate risk exposure and the value of European firms

This paper presents a new assessment of the exposure of European firms to exchange rate fluctuations which takes into account the potential common drivers of exchange rates and equity market conditions. Using monthly data for European firms from 1999 to 2011, we assess the impact of unexpected fluctuations in the USD, JPY, GBP and CHF against the Euro, and show that the proportion of firms subject to exchange rate risk is considerably larger when estimation accounts for potential common drivers and firm-specific factors than otherwise. Firm exposure to exchange rate risk is affected by the level of international involvement, industry, firm size and country of origin. European firms with largely domestic operations reveal the greatest vulnerability to unexpected exchange rate movements, suggesting an opportunity to improve risk management for these companies.     

The long-term role of non-traditional banking in profitability and risk profiles: Evidence from a panel of U.S. banking institutions

The goal of this empirical study is to identify empirically and on a panel basis how non-traditional bank activities affect directly the profitability and risk profiles of the financial institutions involved in such activities. Through a dataset that covers 1725 U.S. financial institutions involved in non-traditional bank activities spanning the period 2000–2013 and the methodology of panel cointegration, the empirical findings document that non-traditional bank activities exert a positive effect on both the profitability and the insolvency risk. The results could be important for regulators given they could serve as a pre-warning signal that sends a clear message to regulators about the potential systemic risk that exists within the financial markets.     

谁将挑战美元

1976年以来,美元作为国际货币的作用逐渐减弱,一些新兴市场经济体的货币开始登上历史舞台。而美元作为国际货币的地位并没有发生直线下降,尤其是2010年以来,美元在各国中央银行外汇储备中的占比止跌企稳,在外汇市场交易中的占比也开始回升。目前来看,欧元和人民币均难以替代美元。但未来美元仍存在被其他货币超越和取代的可能。     

Exchange-rate volatility and industry trade between the U.S. and Malaysia

Previous research that investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of Malaysia concentrated only on the aggregate exports of Malaysia to the rest of the world. In this paper we first concentrate on the trade flows between Malaysia and the U.S. After showing that exchange rate volatility has neither short-run nor long-run effect on the trade flows between the two countries, we disaggregate the trade data by industry and consider the experience of 101 U.S. exporting industries to Malaysia and 17 U.S. importing industries from Malaysia. While exchange rate volatility seems to have significant short-run effects on the trade flows of most industries, short-run effects translate into the long run only in a limited number of small industries.     

系统性风险与宏观审慎监管——基于美国银行业的实证研究

后危机时期,国际金融界开始反思金融监管体制的弊端,加强基于系统性风险的宏观审慎监管,维护金融稳定成为今后改革的方向。以2009年初美联储进行压力测试的美国18家大银行为研究对象,对其风险波动率和系统性风险予以度量。实证研究表明,2007年次贷危机爆发起,美国银行业的系统性风险从低谷走向高峰,至今虽有所缓释,但仍高于危机前的水平。因此,金融监管目标框架应该是:以控制系统性风险为中心,加强宏观审慎监管,保持微观审慎监管,确保金融体系的安全与健康。     

Foreign exchange exposure: Evidence from the U.S. insurance industry

We study the foreign exchange exposure of U.S. insurers. The evidence shows that no systematic difference exists in the currency risk profiles of life and non-life segments within the insurance industry. This suggests that life and non-life insurers have similar risk exposure management strategies arising from similar risk pooling and financial intermediary functions. The empirical results reveal that a sizable proportion of U.S. insurers are exposed to foreign exchange movements against the seven largest U.S. trade partners in insurance services (U.K., Japan, Switzerland, Netherlands, France, Germany and Canada). Significant operational and size effects are also documented and we find that the frequency of foreign exchange exposure increases with time horizon.     

Positive mood and investment decisions: Evidence from comedy movie attendance in the U.S.

Positive mood has been repeatedly shown to affect decision-making under risk. In this study I exploit the time-series variation in the domestic theatrical release of comedy movies as a natural experiment for testing the impact that happy mood (proxied by weekend comedy movie attendance) has on the demand for risky assets (proxied by the performance of the U.S. stock market). Using a sample of data from 1994 to 2010, I estimate that an increase in comedy attendance on a given weekend is followed by a decrease in equity returns on the subsequent Monday, which is consistent with the mood-maintenance hypothesis.     

Individual investors’ attitudes towards listing requirements for foreign entities on U.S. stock exchanges and the promulgation of international accounting standards

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) currently requires foreign issuers of securities listed on U.S. securities exchanges to either employ U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (U.S. GAAP) or include a statement of reconciliation to U.S. GAAP if they use their home country's accounting standards. With some exceptions, they are also required to comply with the provisions of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOA). John Thain, CEO of the New York Stock Exchange, states that these requirements hamper U.S. investments, economic growth, and employment opportunities. The Chairman of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), Sir David Tweedie, echoed Thain's comments. An important stakeholder who is affected significantly by the U.S. listing requirements is the U.S. individual investor. Accordingly this study examines their attitudes involving the extant rules for foreign listings on U.S. exchanges and other aspects of the issue. The study also examines their perceptions regarding accounting standard promulgation authority and the use of a global set of accounting principles. The results indicate that although U.S. investors are very much in favor of the listing of foreign companies on U.S. exchanges, they also endorse the current rule requiring either employment of U.S. GAAP or reconciliation to it as well as mandatory adherence to the SOA. In the area of accounting standards, although a large majority believed that the U.S. should control the accounting standards for U.S. listings, a smaller majority also believed that there should be a universal set of accounting principles for all stock exchanges.     

U.S. presidential cycles and the foreign exchange market

We examine the association between the foreign exchange rate of the US dollar and US presidential cycles. Results show that Republican presidencies tend to start with a strong dollar, which then depreciates over the course of the presidency. In contrast, Democratic presidencies tend to begin with a weak dollar that then appreciates. These patterns result in an apparent presidential effect in US foreign exchange rates, the direction of which depends on whether exchange rates are measured by levels or by returns.     

Measuring the distribution of material well-being: U.S. trends

Economists with a few exceptions have automatically assumed that the important measure of well-being is income. In contrast, economic historians have broadened the measure of well-being with particular interest in mortality, morbidity, nutrition, education and leisure. When one takes this broader view of the standard of living, there appears to be a strong trend toward more equality in the distribution of well-being since the industrial revolution.Gini coefficients calculated for the distributions of lifespan and educational attainment have declined dramatically since the mid-nineteenth century for the United States. Mortality and educational differentials have also declined. Inequality of leisure time and consumption, though not as consistently measured, also show trends toward equality over the twentieth century.These trends toward equality in well-being as measured by indicators other than income and wealth seem to be generated by provision of public goods, natural boundaries to lifespan, educational attainment and leisure, and by the growth in mean per capita income. The divergent trends in the distributions of income and the other measures of well-being caution against reliance on the distribution of income to interpret trends in inequality.     

Foreign macroeconomic and industry-related information transfers around earnings announcements: Evidence from U.S.-listed non-U.S. firms

This study examines information transfer regarding how investors react to new foreign macroeconomic and industry-related information embedded in foreign firms' earnings releases. Using non-U.S. firms listed in the U.S. as our main setting, we find that U.S. investors react significantly to foreign macroeconomic information and to information generated by the interaction between macroeconomic and industry-related information. We also find that the benefits (costs) of processing earnings reports increase (decrease) both types of information transfers. In addition, we find macroeconomic information transfers in an international cross-listing setting and both types of information transfers in an international non-cross-listing setting.     

美国乔治敦大学访问观察与启示(一)——师资管理

本文介绍了美国乔治顿大学师资管理制度,并总结出其三大特点,借以提出我们在学习和借鉴国外先进经验的同时,应从我国高校师资队伍建设的实际情况出发,不断改进和完善现行的政策措施,为建设高素质的教师队伍而做出努力。     

Bilateral investment treaties and foreign direct investment: Evidence from emerging market firms

Bilateral investment treaties (BITs) help developing countries attract foreign direct investment (FDI) from developed countries. However, whether BITs matter for emerging market firms’ (EMFs) FDI is unclear. This paper investigates how BITs affect EMFs’ FDI locations using conditional logit models with firm-level panel data from 2003 to 2015. The results show that BITs can help host countries attract FDI from emerging market countries. BITs work alongside good institutions to increase the attractiveness of FDI, irrespective of a host country being developed or not.     

战后美国经济周期再考察

二战后美国经济周期波动发生显著变化。相比二战之前,美国经济周期扩张期拉长,衰退期缩短,二者之间形成剪刀差。经济周期长度、扩张期跨度和紧缩期跨度的离散度远远大于战前。二战后至今,美国经济中周期出现(朱格拉周期)呈拉长的趋势,扩张期远远长于衰退期,中周期(朱格拉周期)和短周期(基钦周期)的波幅经历了从小到大的阶段性变化。     

Exchange rate exposure and foreign exchange derivatives: do ineffective hedgers modify future derivatives use?

Recent studies examining the relationship between stock returns and exchange rate changes have provided evidence that the exchange rate exposure of non-financial companies is reduced by the use of foreign exchange derivatives. Building on such research, this study investigates whether past ineffective derivative hedging contributes to explaining future derivatives use. To the extent that companies monitor the effectiveness of their currency risk management practices, past ineffective hedgers can be expected to modify their future use of foreign exchange derivatives accordingly. In our study of 94 non-financial US multinationals, we provide evidence that the change in derivatives use from 1996–1998 to 1998–2000 can be explained in part by the ineffective hedging of currency risk in 1996–1998, controlling for variables associated with theories of optimal hedging. Additional analyses confirm that such primary results are robust to firm size, the level of foreign operations, and the use of derivatives to partially hedge currency risk. Our results imply that as exchange markets and risk management practices change, the use of derivatives to manage exchange rate risk also changes. Our contribution to this field of study is that we find evidence that past ineffective hedgers tend to increase their future use of FXDs.     

Corporate tax payments under formulary apportionment: Evidence from the financial reports of 50 major U.S. multinational firms

Under a formulary apportionment system of taxing multinational corporate income, U.S. tax liabilities would be based on the product of a multinational firm's worldwide income and the fraction of their real activities that occur in the United States – typically, an average of asset, payroll, and sales shares. This analysis utilizes financial reporting data for 50 large U.S. multinational firms to analyze how tax payments would change under a possible formulary system, updating Shackelford and Slemrod (1998). Our time period is 2005–2007 instead of 1989–1993. We find that tax payments under formulary apportionment would increase modestly overall but by a lower magnitude than found by Shackelford and Slemrod. Given the changes in the international tax environment since the earlier time period, this is a puzzling finding; we speculate regarding possible explanations.     

Foreign exchange rate exposure: Evidence from Canada

Using weekly data from 2003 to 2011, this paper examines the presence of exchange rate exposure in thirteen Canadian industry sectors. This study contributes to the literature in a number of ways: (i) it considers the presence of exposure not only in the full sample but also in the pre and post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) periods, (ii) it considers both linear and nonlinear exposure and (iii) it makes use of the sign and size bias tests to investigate the presence of asymmetric exposure. In general, we find some evidence of linear and nonlinear exposure in the full sample as well as in the pre and post-GFC sub-samples. We also find weak evidence of an asymmetric exposure sign effect on stock returns in the full and pre-GFC sample periods. Stock returns are found to respond asymmetrically to the positive magnitude of exposure in both the-pre and post-GFC sample periods. In overall terms, the GFC appears to have weakly contributed to the overall strength of the exposure.     

The Asian exposure of U.S. firms: Operational and risk management strategies

This paper examines the Asian currency exposure of U.S. firms with regard to their international operational and risk management strategies. We find that contemporaneous and lagged changes in real exchange rates have significant impacts on firm value for about 30% of the U.S. firms with Asian operations. The effects of a strong dollar are heterogeneous, with both significantly positive and significantly negative coefficients. The exchange exposure coefficients are then estimated as a function of international operational and risk management variables. A strong dollar has an adverse effect on firm value when the firm has a negative initial exposure position, and is related to exports and local sales activities of the firms. However, asset deployment in Asia raises the exposure in absolute terms regardless of initial exposure condition. Variables for hedging incentives explain exposure in both positive and negative exposure cases. Finally, a disaggregate study by country shows significant intra-regional differences, indicating the different ways in which the U.S. firms used their Asian subsidiaries operationally.