The impact of trade costs on exports: An empirical modeling

Studies, which have discussed some of the important issues concerning the measurement of trade costs, have conceded that the literature is still in the early stages of understanding and measuring what the real costs are. It is in this context, decomposing trade costs into ‘natural’ costs, ‘behind the border’ costs, ‘explicit beyond the border’ costs, and ‘implicit beyond the border’ costs, this paper suggests a method to measure the impacts of these components on changes in exports between countries in the absence of complete information on all the components of trade costs in home and partner countries. Empirical measurement has been demonstrated using 1999 and 2004 trade data from Pakistan. The results show that Pakistan's export growth between 1999 and 2004 came mainly from the reduction in both ‘explicit and implicit beyond the border’ trade costs in partner countries.     

From necessities to imaginary worlds: Structural change,product quality and economic development

In this paper we explore how innovation and structural change affected economic development in the long run, by which we mean a period such as the one between the industrial revolution and the present. We separate the period since the industrial revolution into two sub periods, which we call ‘necessities’ and ‘imaginary worlds’ and focus on three trajectories, increasing productive efficiency, increasing output variety, and increasing output quality and differentiation. In the paper we show how a combination of the three trajectories gave rise to the transition between ‘necessities’ and ‘imaginary worlds’ and propose a mechanism of economic development which could have given rise to the type of economic system which we can observe today. To create growing output quality and differentiation higher competencies were required. These higher competencies required higher levels of education and demanded higher wages, which contributed to raise consumers' purchasing power. These phenomena, combined with the income effect of the creation of new sectors, generated the disposable income with which consumers could purchase the new, higher quality, non necessities, goods and services generated by innovation. In the paper we study the impact of several model parameters on the stability of the virtuous circle previously described.     

Now, whose schools are really better (or weaker) than Germany's? A multiple testing approach

Using PIRLS (Progress in International Reading Literacy Study) data, we investigate which countries' schools can be classified as significantly better or weaker than Germany's as regards the reading literacy of primary school children. The ‘standard’ approach is to conduct separate tests for each country relative to the reference country (Germany) and to reject the null of equally good schools for all those countries whose p-value satisfies p_i ? 0.05. We demonstrate that this approach ignores the multiple testing nature of the problem and thus overstates differences between schooling systems by producing unwarranted rejections of the null. We employ various multiple testing techniques to remedy this problem. The results suggest that the ‘standard’ approach may overstate the number of significantly different countries by up to 30%.     

Endogenous lifetime and economic growth

Endogenous mortality is introduced in a two-period overlapping generations model: probability of surviving from the first period to the next depends upon health capital that is augmented through public investment. High mortality societies do not grow fast since shorter lifespans discourage savings; development traps are possible. Productivity differences across nations result in persistent differences in capital-output ratios and relatively larger gaps in income and mortality. High mortality also reduces returns on education, where risks are undiversifiable. When human capital drives economic growth, countries differing in health capital do not converge to similar living standards, ‘threshold effects’ may also result.     

A bibliometric account of the evolution of EE in the last two decades: Is ecological economics (becoming) a post-normal science?

In ecological economics the debate on formalism and formalization has been addressed in the context of a lively discussion on ecological economics as a ‘post-normal’ (versus ‘normal’) science. Using ecological economics (EE) as a ‘seed’ journal and applying bibliometric techniques to all (2533) the articles published in EE from January 1989 to December 2009, we analyze the evolution of the field of ecological economics aiming to shed light on this debate. We observe the predominance (and increased relevance) of certain research topics: ‘Methodological issues’, ‘Policies, governance and institutions’ and ‘Valuation’. Moreover, ‘Collective action’, ‘Technical change and the environment’ and ‘Values’ stand as emergent themes of research. Finally, we note that ecological economics experienced an ‘empirical turn’ reflected in a shift away from exclusively formalized papers towards exclusively empirical and, to a larger extent, ‘formal and empirical’ ones. The combination of the prominent and emergent topics and the ‘empirical turn’ mirrors the increasing awareness among researchers in the field of the need to address a key specificity of ecological economics — the interdependence of the economic, biophysical and social spheres. On this basis, we argue that at least through the lens of EE, ecological economics has evolved towards a post-normal science.     

Directly unproductive schooling: How country characteristics affect the impact of schooling on growth

The rapid rise in schooling in developing countries in recent decades has been dramatic. However, many cross-country regression analyses of the impact of schooling on economic growth find low and insignificant coefficients. This empirical ‘puzzle’ contrasts with theoretical arguments that schooling, through raising human capital, should raise income levels. This paper argues that poor results are to be expected when regression samples include countries that vary greatly in their ability to use schooling productively. Data on corruption, the black market premium on foreign exchange and the extent of the brain drain for developing countries are used as indicators of an economy's productive use of schooling. Regression analysis shows that the impact of schooling on economic growth is substantially higher in countries that are adjudged to use schooling productively.     

Revisiting the infant industry argument

This paper identifies a flaw in the infant industry argument that previous literature has ignored. A simple model first replicates the infant industry logic but subsequently shows that, in the presence of a ‘traditional technology’ with poor growth potential, the infant-industry logic is likely to fail. Under protectionism domestic producers substitute advanced technologies with the low-growth alternative, thereby inhibiting learning and economic growth. Protectionism's adverse effect on development is magnified by complementarities among advanced input goods and, under adequate conditions, in a three-country setting.     

An efficiency and welfare classification of rationing by waiting in the presence of bribery

Governments often allocate commodities at low prices and on a first-come-first-served basis (rationing by waiting), while bureaucrats who distribute the commodities usually take bribes. A model is developed to classify the efficiency implications of bribery, and socially optimal pricing schemes in rationing by waiting. If the rationed good and individual income spent on other goods (‘other’ income) are ‘complements’, then bribery may enhance allocative efficiency, and a ‘dual pricing’ scheme can augment social welfare. However, if the rationed commodity and ‘other’ income are ‘substitutes’, then bribery may not improve allocative efficiency, and distributing the rationed commodity free is socially optimal.     

Social status and group norms: Indirect reciprocity in a repeated helping experiment

In the economic literature, reciprocity is typically studied in situations of repeated interaction between two individuals. It refers to one individual rewarding kind acts of the other or punishing hostile acts. In contrast, this paper studies indirect reciprocity, where a cooperative action is rewarded by a third actor, not involved in the original exchange. We provide experimental evidence on indirect reciprocity. The experiment is based on the ‘repeated helping game’ developed by Nowak and Sigmund (J. Theoret. Biol. 194 (1998) 561; Nature 393 (1998) 573), involving random pairing in large groups. Pairs consist of a donor and a recipient. Donors decide whether or not to provide costly ‘help’ to the recipients they are matched with, based on information about the recipient's behavior in encounters with third parties. We observe clear evidence of indirect reciprocity. Many decision-makers respond to the information about previous decisions (whether or not to help others) of the recipients. In our experiments, this indirect reciprocity is largely based on norms about how often the recipient should have helped others in the past. We show that these norms develop similarly within groups of interacting subjects, but distinctly across groups. This leads to the emergence of group norms.     

A ‘technically level playing-field’ profit efficiency analysis of enforced competition between publicly funded institutions

The study demonstrates how recent advances in the data envelopment analysis (DEA) of profit efficiency, and in combining DEA and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to measure producer performance, can be used to obtain a ‘technically level playing-field’ profit efficiency performance measure. A three-stage analysis is used to provide an empirical investigation of public-sector universities facing regulatory pressures to attain both profit efficiency and output quality. Stage one employs directional distance function analysis to decompose DEA profit efficiency measures into technical and allocative components. As these performance measures incorporate the impacts of managerial inefficiency, the operating environment and luck (statistical noise), stage two applies SFA to total (radial and non-radial) slacks to obtain a degree of disentanglement from the latter two impacts. The stage-two results are used to define a common environment and common luck scenario, thus permitting university producers’ inputs to be adjusted so as to reflect operation within this more level playing-field scenario. Stage three recomputes the first-stage DEA for this scenario, to yield an (input-focused) ‘technically level playing-field’ measure of profit efficiency that unifies the regulatory financial audit and output-quality indicators in a single, best-practice-benchmarked, performance measure.     

Product variety and technical change

Motivated by growth models based on the variety of capital goods, recent empirical studies have established links between productivity and several trade-based measures of product variety, carrying the implication that these measures may represent technology. We study this implication by explicitly proposing the variety of capital goods available for production as a direct measure of the state of technology. Within a simple growth and development framework, we derive a ‘conditional technological convergence’ hypothesis on how this variety should behave if it were indeed to represent the state of technology. The hypothesis is tested with highly disaggregated trade data, using tools from the income convergence literature. The results suggest that a trade-based count measure of the variety of available capital goods, allowing for product differentiation by country of origin, indeed behaves ‘as if’ it represented technology when change of technology is understood as a learning process, and that there is conditional technological convergence among our panel of mainly OECD and transition economies.     

Proposed changes to the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare: An application to Belgium

This paper presents the results of a Belgian case study on the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW). The index is first compiled using the standard methodology applied in other international studies. Owing to the short period in which Belgium's ‘traditional’ ISEW has recently declined, it is not possible to draw any solid conclusion regarding Max-Neef's ‘threshold hypothesis’. After a brief review of the criticism that the ISEW has attracted over the years, the paper then explains and discusses the rationale for omitting the ‘net capital growth’ and ‘change in net international investment position’ items. It is argued that these items do not comply with the theoretical foundation underpinning the ISEW. The paper also puts forward new valuation methods for several items within the index: the escalation factor in the valuation of natural capital depletion is dropped, long-term environmental damage is valued using a stock-based approach and considerably more government expenditures are considered to be non-defensive. The results of the ‘revised’ ISEW show significant improvements in sustainable economic welfare over the entire study period. These findings are not in line with the ‘threshold hypothesis’. Finally, the paper offers some guidelines for communicating about the ISEW — namely that (a) all methodological assumptions should be made explicit and (b) all raw (unadjusted) data used should be included in any final ISEW report so as to enable the reader to make his or her own assessment about the assumptions the researcher has employed.     

Removed preferences

In formalizing a ‘veil of ignorance’ type procedure, this paper considers how an agent?s preferences over a set of alternatives change as he is placed at an increasing ‘distance’ from the consequences of his choices. A definition for such ‘removed preferences’ is presented and its properties studied. As an application, it is demonstrated that present biased agents are ‘essentially’ exponential when distanced from the present, and that rank-dependent expected utility agents are ‘essentially’ expected utility when distanced from risk.     

Worker remittances,migration, accumulation and growth in poor developing countries: Survey and analysis of direct and indirect effects

A broad but brief survey of the literature on remittances and growth shows that indirect effects are only included via interaction terms. Then, we regress data for migration, worker remittances, savings, investment, tax revenues, public expenditure on education, interest rates, literacy, labor force growth, development aid and GDP per capita growth on migration, remittances and other variables for a panel of countries with income below $1200. The estimated dynamic equations are integrated to a system used for baseline simulations. Comparison with the counterfactual policy simulations ‘only 50% remittances’ or ‘no net migration anymore’ shows that the total effect of remittances on levels and growth rates of GDP per capita, investment and literacy are positive, and that of net migration is negative for literacy and investment but positive for growth.     

On the role of intentionality in evolutionary economic change

One important challenge to evolutionary economics consists of tackling the paradoxical relationship between purposeful human action and the ‘blindness’ of evolutionary processes. We argue that the theoretical treatment of intended action is a prerequisite for venturing beyond the phenomenological explanation of evolutionary processes. If so, evolutionary processes are not (at least completely) ‘blind’. Of course, not every change in a society is a consequence of purposeful action. However, even if not every action were intended and not every novelty were the consequence of pursuing particular goals, the evolution of individual intentions and pursued goals (micro-level) is a key process in explaining economic change. In this context, an evolutionary efficiency criterion is proposed.     

Promise and shortcomings of a green turn in recent policy responses to the “double crisis”

The paper analyses six international-scale responses to the financial and climate change ‘double crisis’ in order to: review how they define problems and solutions, analyse what underpins the policy choices revealed in these responses (the ‘green turn’), reflect on the implications of the proposed solutions in terms of sustainability and global environmental justice, and to suggest three elements for a paradigm shift towards an ‘alternative’ turn embedded in ecological economics theory. The analysis reveals that responses by leading international organisations continue to appeal to the precepts of neoclassical economy. We argue that from an ecological economics perspective, policy responses under the various labels of green economy, green growth, sustainable growth, green new deal, fall well short of what is needed to fight the environmental crisis and rising inequality across and within countries. The idea of justice and equity that underpins the mainstream approach seems inadequate in terms of sustaining our environmental base and global environmental justice. Based on this critical review, we propose an ‘alternative turn’, centred on three elements of a paradigm shift leading to a new economy where the environmental base and global environmental justice are at the centre of the discourse.     

Agglomeration, integration and tax harmonisation

Consideration of agglomeration reverses standard theoretical propositions in international tax competition. We show greater economic integration may lead to a ‘race to the top’ rather than a race to the bottom. Also, ‘split the difference’ tax harmonisation may harm both nations, a result that may explain why real-world tax harmonisation is rare. The key is that industrial concentration creates ‘agglomeration rent.’ The ‘core’ region can thus charge a higher tax rate without losing capital. The size of such rent is a bell-shaped function of the level of integration, so the tax gap first widens before narrowing as integration increases.     

Voracity, growth, and welfare

This paper explores some implications of the comparison between feedback Nash and Stackelberg equilibria for growth and welfare in a ‘voracity’ model. We show that, as compared to the Nash equilibrium, the Stackelberg equilibrium involves a lower growth rate, while it leaves both the leaders and the followers better off, i.e., the Stackelberg equilibrium is Pareto superior to the Nash equilibrium.     

Agglomeration and tax competition

Tax competition may be different in ‘new economic geography settings’ compared to standard tax competition models. If the mobile factor is completely agglomerated in one region, it earns an agglomeration rent which can be taxed. Closer integration first results in a ‘race to the top’ in taxes before leading to a ‘race to the bottom’. We reexamine these issues in a model that produces stable equilibria with partial agglomeration in addition to the core-periphery equilibria. A bell-shaped tax differential also arises in our model. Therefore, the ‘race to the top’ result generalises to a framework with partial agglomeration.     

Solidarity among the poor

We conduct a field experiment with low-income subjects in Dallas, Texas. We examine voluntary, informal risk sharing using a visual representation of the solidarity game developed for low-literacy populations. We find substantially more ‘fixed gift to loser’ behavior and less ‘egotistical’ behavior than in previous studies. Individuals who display ‘egotistical’ behavior are more risk tolerant. The amount of the conditional gifts is positively related to age, income, and connection to the community. However, trust and empathy, which are commonly discussed as drivers for solidarity, are not significantly related to the amount given.