The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis

Academics, politicians, the public in general and researchers have great interest in the non-observed economy. However, there is divergence in its definition, accounting methodology and economic effects. In this paper we conduct a meta-analysis on the empirical literature that estimates the impact of the parallel economy on economic growth. We conclude that there is no publication bias and that the average effect of the parallel economy on economic growth is insignificant. However, the reported effects differ considerably with the type and number of countries included in the sample of primary studies, the structure of the data, the methodology used to measure the parallel economy, the number of citations of primary studies, and the year they were published.     

Interactions between financial constraints and economic growth

The financial economy and the real economy are interconnected through various, complex, and evolving transmission mechanisms, whose literary coverage is far from comprehensive. In this context, we wish to contribute to the literature on the interactions between financial constraints and economic growth. We introduce financial dynamics in the R&D-based growth literature, by bringing Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist’s (1999) informational asymmetries into Romer’s (1990) growth model. With the developed framework, our main goal is to examine if and how such asymmetries impact economic growth. We find that the overall impact of this form of financial constraints on long-term growth is negative.     

Complementarity,fiscal decentralization and economic growth

Theories of the voluntary provision of public goods and development economics have clarified that complementarity in the production process is a crucial ingredient to understanding how alternative economic environments affect economic performance. This paper examines how the structures of intra- and inter-regional complementarity affect the relationship between economic growth and fiscal decentralization. We provide a theory that describes how fiscal decentralization affects economic growth under various structures of regional complementarity. Our empirical analysis, based on a panel data set of the fifty states of the United States over the period of 1992–1997, supports our theoretical specification of the production function. Also, we observe a hump-shaped relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth that is consistent with our theoretical result. Our analysis also shows that the optimal degree of fiscal decentralization conducive to economic growth is higher than the average of the data in some cases, and hence further decentralization is recommended for economic growth. The previous version of the paper was presented at the 59th Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (University of Economics in Prague, Prague), the 2003 Fall Meeting of the Japanese Economic Association (Meiji University, Tokyo), the 60th Annual Meeting of the Japanese Institute of Public Finance (Kansai University, Osaka), and in seminars at Yokohama National University and the University of California, Irvine. The authors acknowledge the comments and discussions by people including Timothy Goodspeed, Kiyoshi Mitsui, Motohiro Sato, Etsuro Shioji, Tsunao Okumura, and Craig Parsons. We are also grateful for the comments by the Editor (Amihai Glazer) and two anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer applies. Nishimura acknowledges the financial support from JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science) Postdoctoral Fellowships for Research Abroad.     

Natural disasters,growth and institutions: A tale of two earthquakes

We examine the impact of natural disasters on GDP per capita by applying the synthetic control approach and using a within-country perspective. Our analysis encompasses two large-scale earthquakes that occurred in two different Italian regions in 1976 and 1980. We show that the short-term effects are negligible in both regions, though they become negative if we simulate the GDP that would have been observed in absence of financial aid. In the long-term, our findings indicate a positive effect in one case and a negative effect in the other, largely reflecting divergent patterns of the TFP. Consistent with these findings, we offer further evidence suggesting that a quake and related financial aid might either increase technical efficiency via a disruptive creation mechanism or reduce it by stimulating corruption, distorting the markets and deteriorating social capital. Finally, we show that the bad outcome is more likely to occur in regions with lower pre-quake institutional quality. As a result, our evidence suggests that unanticipated local shocks are likely to change long run growth rates, exacerbating territorial disparities.     

Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A nonlinear analysis

Using the threshold regression model, we examine the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and the mediating role of FDI absorptive capacity, on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. We find that the threshold level of FDI inflows per person is approximately US$ 44.67 per annum. For FDI to have an appreciable impact on economic growth, countries must have minimum capacity to absorb the growth-enhancing benefits of FDI. For instance, the technology gap between the hosted foreign enterprises and domestic enterprises should be no less than 0.6904. Thus, achieving the FDI threshold level is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for economic growth. Some countries use tax incentives to improve FDI inflows. We argue that such incentives may be counterproductive at low levels of FDI inflows: FDI coefficient estimates below the lowest threshold level are negative, implying that the higher costs of such incentives exceed the potential benefits availed by FDI’s direct contribution to economic output and spillovers.     

Entrepreneurship and economic growth: Evidence from emerging and developed countries

This paper presents an extension to the economic growth model developed by Wong, Ho, and Autio (2005 Autio, E. 2005. 2005 report on high-expectation entrepreneurship, Toronto: GEM Consortium.  [Google Scholar]), to reflect differences in the economic effects of opportunity and necessity-based entrepreneurship in both emerging and developed countries. Data from 44 countries for the years 2004 and 2005, as collected by Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) research and Global Competitiveness Report (GCR) research, are used to identify predictors of GDP growth for emerging and developed nations. The GEM data are used to determine the effect of different types of entrepreneurship on GDP growth. The GCR data operationalize additional control variables suggested by three economic growth theories: new economic geography, endogenous growth theory and national systems of innovation. This contribution to the literature suggests that, in developed countries, a significant portion of economic growth rates can be attributed to high-expectation entrepreneurs exploiting national investments in knowledge creation and regulatory freedom. However, in emerging countries this effect is absent. It is hypothesized that a threshold exists for entrepreneurs to gain access to the formal economy, below which entrepreneurial contributions act through informal mechanisms.     

Federalism,taxation, and economic growth

We present a model of endogenous growth where government provides a productive public good financed by income and capital taxes. In equilibrium, a decentralized government chooses tax policy to maximize economic growth, while a centralized government does not do so. Furthermore, these conclusions hold regardless of whether governments are beholden to a median voter or are rent-maximizing Leviathans. However, a decentralized government will under-provide public goods which benefit citizens directly, while a central government beholden to the median voter will optimally invest in such public goods.     

Technology-based design and sustainable economic growth

This paper seeks to analyze how design creates economic value. The literature on knowledge-based economic development has primarily focused on innovation as the analytical lens, whereas design is the original action that leads to innovation. Despite the fundamental importance of design, existing design research has offered few insights and little guidance for national strategies due to the lack of focus on and analysis of design in an economic context. This paper addresses such gaps by linking design research and economic development theory. We first elaborate on the relationship among design, invention and innovation, describing the necessity of design activity for invention and innovation. Our analysis of the fundamental characteristics of design across contexts sheds light on the strategic importance of the accumulative nature of technology-based design for sustaining economic growth. Through the lens of technology-based design, we further quantitatively compare Singapore and three similarly-sized countries (South Korea, Finland and Taiwan). Based upon interview data, we also qualitatively examine Singapore's national strategy focusing on design. The quantitative and qualitative results align well with the Singaporean government's use of design as a strategic lever to pursue innovation-driven economic growth, and also reveal its achievements and shortfalls which indicate possible directions for strategic adjustment.     

Foreign capital inflows and economic growth of Pakistan

This study investigates the relationship of foreign capital inflows, namely foreign direct investment, workers’ remittances, and external debt with economic growth of Pakistan by employing time series data from 1976 to 2015. Cointegration results indicate that foreign capital inflows and economic growth have a significant relationship with economic growth in the long run. Ordinary least square results indicate foreign direct investment has a significant and negative effect on economic growth, whereas a significant positive effect of remittances and external debts on economic growth is found. Rolling windows analysis highlights the yearly effect of three different models. Two different sensitivity analyses confirmed that initial results are robust. The final section concludes the study and provides some policy implications.     

The role of insurance growth in economic growth: Fresh evidence from a panel of OECD countries

Insurance is one of the key activities in a globalised financial and economic environment. Through its benefits, it offers income, life and property protection to the insured and their keens, as well as income accumulation that can be used at retirement to help preserve the desired lifestyle or living standards. Motivated by this end of insurance, the goal of this paper is to study the contribution of insurance growth to economic growth, by employing the benefit side of the insurance activity, next to the acquisition side that has already been considered. More precisely, the findings provide evidence that gross claims payments and gross operating expenses are significantly and positively related to economic growth. At the same time, the results confirm the findings of the existing literature that gross premia and insurance penetration are also significantly and positively related to economic growth. The outcomes hold true for total, life and non-life insurance, both during the pre- and post- 2008-crisis periods, even though less strong after the crisis. Furthermore, the positive and statistically significant impact of gross capital formation, government expenditure, secondary schooling, FDI inflows, trade openness and financial development is validated, in line with certain theoretical expectations.     

Public spending,public governance and economic growth at the Vietnamese provincial level: A disaggregate analysis

This study examines the role of economic governance in the relationship between public spending, private investment, and economic growth in Vietnam at the provincial level. The study data consist of sixty-two Vietnamese provinces for the period 2006–2015. Some notable results are attained by applying a sequential (two-stage) estimation. First, the marginal benefits to economic growth of increased Vietnamese provincial government expenditures may be constrained because of the inefficiency of expenditures on education, business services, and public administration. Second, public spending and private investment are found to be substitutes at the provincial level. Third, based on the Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) ranking, used as a proxy for provincial public governance in Vietnam, the significance of public governance can be observed. The study concludes that good governance, characterized by different attributes, such as lower informal charges, greater transparency, and unbiased policy, plays a critical role in improving the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Vietnamese provinces, particularly through its interactions with private sector investment.     

Does age structure forecast economic growth?

Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a “demographic dividend” that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model using a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980, and investigate whether the inclusion of age structure improves the model's forecasts for the period 1980 to 2000. We find that including the age structure improves the forecast, although there is evidence of parameter instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown in the second period. We use the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000 to 2020.     

Capital utilization, economic growth and convergence

Optimal decisions by economic agents regarding the utilization of capital lead to empirically plausible speeds of convergence in one-sector models of economic growth. The relationship between depreciation and capital utilization plays a crucial role in slowing down convergence to the steady state. Cross-country differences in the extent to which the capital utilization decision is internalized along the transition path may lead to differences in convergence rates, even for countries with similar initial and terminal conditions. Finally, by assuming a constant depreciation rate and full capital utilization, standard growth models may be overstating the magnitude of the steady-state equilibrium.     

Exploring the linkage between human capital and economic growth: A look at 141 developing and developed countries

As a factor of production, human capital is defined both in its health and educational dimensions, incorporating qualitative and quantitative aspects. Using a panel of 141 countries (93 developing and 48 developed), we attempt to explore and compare the impact of human capital on economic growth at different development stages. For our estimation, we employ the System Generalized Methods of Moments (SGMM) for the period 1980–2008. Our findings reveal that all aspects of human capital positively influence growth in developing countries, especially life expectancy gain, which may be explained by the demographic transition these countries are going through. However, the scenario is different for developed countries, where increased life expectancy posits a drag on economic growth, probably because of the increasingly aging population and dependency ratio. Only when life expectancy is omitted does health expenditure, along with other educational measures of human capital, help sustain growth in developed countries.     

Entrepreneurship and economic freedom: cross-country evidence from formal and informal sectors

Abstract

The paper empirically examines the effect of economic freedom on the average prevalence of formal and informal entrepreneurship. Whereas the formal entrepreneurship and economic freedom nexus has been studied, the influence of economic freedom on informal entrepreneurship is less forthcoming. The results, based on cross-country data and after accounting for possible reverse causality, show that economic freedom promotes formal entrepreneurship and inhibits informal entrepreneurship. Furthermore, the return from economic freedom is greatest in countries with a relatively higher prevalence of formal and informal entrepreneurship.     

Money and economic development: A long-run perspective

This article explores the association between money and long-run economic growth in a panel of 27 countries over 200 years. It presents evidence of a complementarity between freedom and decentralisation of the monetary system in terms of their contribution to growth in GDP per capita. The significant and positive association between freedom and economic growth is found to be significantly stronger in a decentralised (market-based) than in a centralised (government-controlled) monetary system. For the average level of freedom across the 27 countries today, shifting from a centralised to a decentralised monetary system is predicted to almost double growth rates.     

Infectious diseases and economic growth

This paper develops a framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a neo-classical growth model. There is a two way interaction between the economy and the disease: the incidence of the disease affects labor supply, and investment in health capital can affect the incidence and recuperation from the disease. Thus, both the disease incidence and the income levels are endogenous. The disease dynamics make the control problem non-convex thus usual optimal control results do not apply. We establish existence of an optimal solution, continuity of state variables, show directly that the Hamiltonian inequality holds thus establishing optimality of interior paths that satisfy necessary conditions, and of the steady states. There are multiple steady states and the local dynamics of the model are fully characterized. A disease-free steady state always exists, but it could be unstable. A disease-endemic steady state may exist, in which the optimal health expenditure can be positive or zero depending on the parameters of the model. The interaction of the disease and economic variables is non-linear and can be non-monotonic.     

A Meta‐Analysis of β‐Convergence: the Legendary 2%

Abstract.  The topic of convergence is at the heart of a wide‐ranging debate in the growth literature, and empirical studies of convergence differ widely in their theoretical backgrounds, empirical specifications, and in their treatment of cross‐sectional heterogeneity. Despite these differences, a rate of convergence of about 2% has been found under a variety of different conditions, resulting in the widespread belief that the rate of convergence is a natural constant. We use meta‐analysis to investigate whether there is substance to the 'myth' of the 2% convergence rate and to assess several unresolved issues of interpretation and estimation. Our data set contains approximately 600 estimates taken from a random sample of empirical growth studies published in peer‐reviewed journals. The results indicate that it is misleading to speak of a natural convergence rate since estimates of different growth regressions come from different populations, and we find that correcting for the bias resulting from unobserved heterogeneity in technology levels leads to higher estimates of the rate of convergence. We also find that correcting for endogeneity of the explanatory variables has a substantial effect on the estimates and that measures of financial and fiscal development are important determinants of long‐run differences in per capita income levels. We show that although the odds of a study being published is not uniform for studies with different p ‐values, publication bias has no significant effect on the conclusions of the analysis.     

Individual new energy consumption and economic growth in China

We document the one-way relationship between individual new energy consumption and economic growth in China through the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model from 2004 to 2017. Our results show that individual new energy consumption has a positive effect on economic growth. Moreover, the urbanization rate, import and export trade volume and foreign direct investment all affect the individual new energy consumption in the short run. The outcome of the causality test reveals a one-way Granger causal relationship from individual new energy consumption to economic growth, from the urbanization rate, and from the import and export trade volume to new energy consumption.     

Institutions,social capability,and economic growth

I discuss correlations between the historical growth of social capabilities and patterns of economic growth across world regions since the industrial revolution and especially in recent decades. Based on this analysis, I argue that the apparent relationship between institutions and economic growth results in part because better institutional performance goes hand in hand with more advanced social capabilities.