资本-劳动替代弹性与地区经济增长-德拉格兰德维尔假说的检验

德拉格兰德维尔假说认为,资本-劳动替代弹性的提高能够推动经济增长。本文从理论上阐述了替代弹性对经济增长的作用机制,并采用标准化供给面系统方法估算1978—2008年各省区的替代弹性和有偏技术进步。研究发现,除辽宁和河北外的东部省区及内蒙古的资本与劳动之间是替代关系,多数中西部省区的资本和劳动之间则存在互补关系。同时,多数省区的技术进步是资本偏向型。基于两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)和广义矩估计法(GMM)的回归结果显示,我国地区经济增长支持德拉格兰德维尔假说。     

资本-劳动替代弹性与地区经济增长-德拉格兰德维尔假说的检验

德拉格兰德维尔假说认为,资本一劳动替代弹性的提高能够推动经济增长。本文从理论上阐述了替代弹性对经济增长的作用机制,并采用标准化供给面系统方法估算1978—2008年各省区的替代弹性和有偏技术进步。研究发现,除辽宁和河北外的东部省区及内蒙古的资本与劳动之间是替代关系,多数中西部省区的资本和劳动之间则存在互补关系。同时,多数省区的技术进步是资本偏向型。基于两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)和广义矩估计法(GMM)的回归结果显示,我国地区经济增长支持德拉格兰德维尔假说。     

异质性劳动力流动、房价变动与要素价格扭曲

如何治理房价过度上涨,缓解要素价格扭曲和优化地区间要素配置已经成为了协调区域经济均衡发展所需解决的问题。文章构建了一般均衡模型,研究了异质性劳动力流动与房价变动、要素扭曲之间的内在机制。数值模拟发现技能型劳动力集聚带来的地区劳动力技能结构的提高以及其对资本的引致效应是造成房价上涨的关键因素。房价上涨抵消了异质性劳动之间的引致集聚规模效应,并诱发了要素间的替代,形成了技能集聚地区的房价上涨,劳动力技能结构提升和资本深化的内生反馈机制。实证检验发现技能型劳动力集聚会造成劳动价格的负向扭曲和资本价格的正向扭曲,最终使得要素的整体价格和要素的相对价格产生负向扭曲。而房价会造成劳动价格的正向扭曲和资本价格的负向扭曲,最终使得要素整体价格和要素相对价格产生正向扭曲。文章的研究为实现区域经济协调发展和政策实施提供了理论依据。     

农业机械对劳动的替代弹性及区域异质性分析——基于地形条件约束视角

非农部门的快速发展促进了农业生产中机械对劳动力的持续替代,然而这种机械化在中国区域的发展中并不平衡。本文使用修正的要素替代弹性公式,首先测度了中国粮食生产中机械—劳动替代弹性,然后实证分析了地形条件约束下的要素替代难度对粮食机械—劳动替代弹性的影响。结论表明,中国粮食生产中机械—劳动替代弹性呈现出较强的区域异质性,并表现出与耕地坡度紧密相关的关系。计量经济模型的估计结果显示,在控制了亩劳均机械水平存量之后,耕地中坡耕地比例对机械—劳动替代弹性产生显著负向影响。机械—劳动替代弹性受到地形地貌约束下的要素替代难度的限制,这成为中国机械化进程呈现地区异质性的重要原因。     

资本重置、地区利益再分配与产业转移

区域间的产业转移与承接是推动我国下一阶段经济增长的主要动力。资本要素在一国内部的空间流动与配置,是实现产业转移和区域经济均衡增长的重要途径。由市场主导的资本流动决定了资本自西向东的空间布局,而地方政府的竞争机制、资本市场一体化程度、区域市场自由度、资本利润率的区域差异等因素进一步巩固了资本流动的这一特征,导致资本流动与产业转移大背景下劳动力要素自东向西的相反回流趋向。资本流动和劳动要素流动在空间上的错置,严重削弱了产业转移的经济效应,而且,这种效应在中西部劳动力工资上行压力、资本投入缺乏效率、承接地政府之间的竞争等诸多因素的作用下进一步被强化。要想提高产业转移效率,实现区域均衡增长,必须改善资本要素的空间布局。     

数字经济的生产率增长效应：红利还是鸿沟

数字经济已成为驱动生产效率提升的关键力量,但数字经济的非均衡发展态势可能会加剧区域间的生产效率差距,数字时代下的区域协调发展和共同富裕实现面临新问题和新挑战。基于中国2011—2019年地级市面板数据对数字经济发展与全要素生产率的关系及区域异质性特征的实证研究表明,数字经济具有显著的生产率增长效应,这种增长效应主要体现在纯技术进步上,数字经济未能通过技术效率和规模效率的改进赋能全要素生产率增长。机制分析表明,数字经济主要通过创新驱动效应、创业激励效应以及产业升级效应等渠道促进全要素生产率增长,但影响效应仅在东部地区显著。区域异质性结果表明,生产效率和经济发展水平越高的城市,数字经济的生产率增长效应越明显,进而导致了区域间的生产率鸿沟。门槛效应检验结果表明,数字经济的边际效应递增特征和欠发达城市在人才集聚、金融发展以及固定资产投资等方面的相对不足强化了区域间的生产率鸿沟。     

要素替代弹性、技术进步偏向与我国工业行业经济增长

本文在CES生产函数下,从理论上讨论了要素替代弹性、技术进步偏向与经济增长之间的关系,采用Kmenta近似估计方法,估算1979-2011年中国工业各行业的替代弹性;并根据Acemoglu对技术进步偏向定义,测算1979-2011年各行业技术进步偏向情况。实证结果表明,大多数行业的要素替代弹性大于0小于1,且资本技术进步增长率小于劳动技术进步增长率;我国行业经济增长过程中的技术进步大致是资本偏向性的。同时,1987-2011年间要素替代弹性变大和技术进步偏向资本对行业经济增长具有明显的促进作用,但人均资本对行业经济增长具有抑制作用。     

技术进步实现机制和生产要素产出弹性理论假说——来自我国9个发达经济区的实证检验

按照管理、资本和劳动要素的产出弹性关系新的理论假说,利用我国9个发达地区2000-2006年的面板数据对要素产出弹性理论假说进行检验。其结果表明,由于我国在技术进步中一直主要依靠技术引进,缺乏自主创新,从而使技术进步表现为资本增加型,理论假说前提的偏离导致实证分析结果和理论分析结果不一致。这说明,在不同的工业化发展阶段,可以选择的技术进步方式不同,要素投入的组合方式也不同。当前我国应该改变资本投入过快增长的现状,强调管理要素和高素质劳动力投入,通过不断促进技术进步,提高要素的使用效率,实现经济平稳快速增长。     

要素转移、产业结构演进与海南生产率增长研究——1993年海南房地产泡沫前后期"结构红利假说"比较实证研究

本文以1993年房地产泡沫破灭为界将改革开放以来的海南经济分为前后两个阶段,分别估算三次产业增加值中的资本和劳动份额,比较分析两阶段生产要素转移与产业结构演进关系、三次产业生产率差异、产业结构生产率增长效应。主要结论如下:海南三次产业资本存量结构和就业结构的变化均具有单调性;要素生产率增长主要来源于内部增长效应;劳动要素转移"结构红利假说"一直成立,而资本要素转移"结构红利假说"只在前期成立,1993年房地产泡沫对海南经济增长产生了深远的负面影响。     

资本深化带来了劳动生产率下降吗

针对近年来我国经济转型升级中出现的新一轮资本深化所引发的担忧与质疑,利用2007-2011年370家民营上市公司的经营数据,在CES型生产函数的基础上,通过门槛面板模型实证检验资本深化、替代弹性与劳动生产率之间的非线性关系.结果表明,新一轮转型升级所推动的资本深化进程,并没有出现传统理论所预言的劳动生产率下降的现象.原因在于替代弹性大于1,资本深化通过“德拉-格兰德雏尔效应”和“卡尔多-凡顿效应”促进了劳动生产率的提高.只有当替代弹性小于1时,“金融深化效应”对劳动生产率的负面影响才逐渐显现.     

TELECOMMUNICATIONS, FACTOR SUBSTITUTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

De La Grandville (1989) suggests that large elasticities of substitution between factor inputs and a change in relative prices might (i) explain historical economic growth in developing countries and (ii) account for the varying growth among sectors within economies undergoing technological change. Yuhn (1991) supports de La Grandvilles first hypothesis in his finding that Korea's economic growth relative to the United States, over a given interval, could be explained by the higher elasticities of substitution between labor and capital in Korea relative to those of the United States. This paper explores de La Grandville's second hypothesis with respect to telecommunications.     

Elasticity of substitution and growth: normalized CES in the Diamond model

Summary. It is often asserted that the more substitutable capital and labor are in the aggregate production the more rapidly an economy grows. Recently this has been formally confirmed within the Solow model by Klump and de La Grandville (2000). This paper demonstrates that there exists no such monotonic relationship between factor substitutability and growth in the Diamond overlapping-generations model. In particular, we prove that, if capital and labor are relatively substitutable, a country with a greater elasticity of substitution exhibits lower per capita output growth in transit and in steady state. Received: October 27, 2001; revised version: February 25, 2002     

Micro-foundation for a constant elasticity of substitution production function through mechanization

We consider an increase in the range of capital use as a form of mechanization. A constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function is dynamically derived from Leontief production functions through the endogenous complementary relationship between capital accumulation and mechanization. This implies that a CES production function can be resolved into technological change that does not involve changes in total factor productivity. Furthermore, using the normalizing procedure of the CES production function developed by de La Grandville [de La Grandville, O., 1989. In quest of the Slutsky diamond. American Economic Review 79, 468–481], we investigate how mechanization is related to the elasticity of substitution in our endogenous growth model.     

Factor substitution and labor market friction in the United States: 1948–2010

We re-estimate the capital-labor elasticity of substitution and the biased factor-augmenting technological progress using a system approach for the aggregate U.S. economy from 1948 to 2010. Due to (i) the significant impacts of labor market dynamics on economic growth and (ii) the fundamental tension between the short-run data that are available and the long-run parameter that is required in the estimation process, we incorporate labor market friction into a supply-side system to re-estimate these important growth parameters and to explore their sensitivity to the incorporation of labor market friction. Our estimation obtains a significantly smaller-than-unity elasticity of substitution. This result is consistent with labor input measured along the extensive and intensive margin, and in both competitive and imperfect labor markets. Technological progress tends to be purely labor-augmenting, with the average growth rate around 2% per year. These findings are robust to alternatively constructed data sets and different estimation strategies.     

Capital-labor substitution in a developing country: The case of Greece

The present paper reports an attempt to estimate the elasticity of capital-labor substitution, and the rate of technical change in the manufacturing sector of the Greek economy. It is found that the elasticity of substitution exceeds unity, and the annual rate of neutral technical change is e^0.05 = 1.05. It is concluded that because of the case of capital-labor substitution the existing labor shortages should not impair the further development of the economy.     

Endogenous fertility and growth in a model with old age support

Summary. This paper examines the interrelationship between capital accumulation, fertility, and growth by introducing an endogenous fertility decision into Diamond's (1965) neoclassical growth model. Under the assumptions that children provide old age support and that individuals incur a variable time cost of raising children, it investigates the potential for cyclical fluctuations in the capital-labor ratio and fertility, as well as for development trap phenomena to be observed. It is shown that when capital and labor are highly substitutable in production, there is a unique steady state equilibrium, and either damped or undamped oscillations in fertility and the capital-labor ratio may occur. However, when the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is less than one, two steady state equilibria may exist; one with a high capital-labor ratio and a high rate of population growth, and the other with a lower capital-labor ratio as well as a lower population growth rate. The former is a saddle, while the latter may be either a source or a sink. In the latter case development traps are possible. Received: June 16, 1997; revised version: December 18, 1997     

Factor Substitution, Income Distribution and Growth in a Generalized Neoclassical Model

Abstract. We analyze a generalized neoclassical growth model that combines a normalized CES production function and possible asymmetries of savings out of factor incomes. This generalized model helps to shed new light on a recent debate concerning the impact of factor substitution and income distribution on economic growth. We show that this impact relies on both an efficiency and a distribution effect, where the latter is caused by the distributional consequences of an increase in the elasticity of substitution. While the efficiency effect is always positive, the sign of the distribution effect depends on the particular savings hypothesis. If the savings rate out of capital income is substantial so that a certain threshold value is surpassed, the efficiency effect dominates and higher factor substitution accelerates the accumulation of capital and works as a major engine of growth.     

地方经济增长目标与要素市场扭曲*

本文采用中国2005—2017年省级政府工作报告中的经济增长目标数据，实证检验了地方经济增长目标对要素市场扭曲的影响。研究发现：（1）地方经济增长目标对要素市场具有显著的扭曲效应。通过干预信贷资源配置、扩大土地出让和压低劳动力工资等方式扭曲要素市场是地方政府实现经济增长目标的主要方式。（2）地方经济增长目标对要素市场扭曲的影响存在区域异质性。经济增长目标对要素市场的扭曲效应在中西部地区和保增长压力较大地区更为明显。（3）地方经济增长目标对要素市场扭曲的影响存在基于制度环境的门槛效应。随着金融制度、法律制度和产权制度的改善，经济增长目标对要素市场的扭曲效应将会减弱。本文为政府目标管理和要素市场扭曲等领域的研究提供了新视角，为相关政策的制定提供了重要的现实依据。     

地方经济增长目标与要素市场扭曲*

本文采用中国2005—2017年省级政府工作报告中的经济增长目标数据，实证检验了地方经济增长目标对要素市场扭曲的影响。研究发现：（1）地方经济增长目标对要素市场具有显著的扭曲效应。通过干预信贷资源配置、扩大土地出让和压低劳动力工资等方式扭曲要素市场是地方政府实现经济增长目标的主要方式。（2）地方经济增长目标对要素市场扭曲的影响存在区域异质性。经济增长目标对要素市场的扭曲效应在中西部地区和保增长压力较大地区更为明显。（3）地方经济增长目标对要素市场扭曲的影响存在基于制度环境的门槛效应。随着金融制度、法律制度和产权制度的改善，经济增长目标对要素市场的扭曲效应将会减弱。本文为政府目标管理和要素市场扭曲等领域的研究提供了新视角，为相关政策的制定提供了重要的现实依据。