SOME LESSONS FROM THE EAST ASIAN MIRACLE

The rapid economic growth of eight East Asian economies, oftencalled the "East Asian miracle, " raises two questions: Whatpolicies and other factors contributed to that growth? And canother developing countries replicate those policies to stimulateequally rapid growth? This article, based on case studies, econometric data, and economictheory, offers a list of the ingredients that contributed tothat success. But it is the combination of these ingredients,many of which involve government interventions acting together,that accounts for East Asia's success.      

GLOBALIZATION OF CAPITAL MARKETS AND THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

This article has three basic aims: (1) to analyze the impact of the opening of their capital markets on the economies of host countries; (2) to investigate the causes of the Asian financial crisis; and (3) to evaluate the likely effects of the South Korean government's recent attempts to restructure its corporate sector. Although the recent Asian financial crisis has led some to question the merits of open capital markets and to call for regulatory restraints on capital flows across international borders, the scientific evidence suggests that the opening of stock markets to foreign investors has been largely beneficial for emerging economies. On average, stock market liberalization has been accompanied by increases in stock prices and reductions in stock return volatility, reductions in inflation, and reductions in the rate of currency depreciation. Much of the blame for the Asian currency crises is assigned to Asian policymakers' futile attempts to defy market forces by trying to maintain their currencies at artificially high levels. But a more fundamental cause of Asia's economic problems has been the widespread value destruction by Asian corporations, which has led to a lower value for the overall economy and weakened the banking sector. The government-directed banking systems and weak corporate governance structures (including managerial incentives to increase size and market share at the expense of shareholders) that characterize most Asian economies have resulted in systematic overinvestment, bloated payrolls, and sharp declines in corporate profitability. While applauding most of the Korean government's recent measures to reform the economy, the article expresses skepticism about the government-mandated restructuring of the chaebol known as the “big deal.” Rather than trying to direct the process of restructuring, Korean policymakers should limit their efforts to improving the market mechanism by increasing competition in the markets for capital, corporate control, and goods and services. The Korean market for corporate control transactions could be greatly improved by increasing the efficiency of bankruptcy proceedings and by allowing hostile takeovers by foreign as well as domestic investors. To increase the productivity of capital, Asian companies should seek to realign managerial with shareholder interests by tying compensation to measures of value creation like EVA.     

DIVERGENT EXPECTATIONS AND THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1997

An important question concerning integration of global financial markets is whether local investors in an equity market react differently from international investors, particularly during periods of financial crisis. Considering local investors are closer to information, they might turn pessimistic before foreign investors before a crisis. We examine whether local investors in each of the six Asian stock markets—Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand—reacted differently from international investors during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Our empirical results indicate that, in general, closed‐end country fund share prices (mainly driven by foreign investors) Granger‐cause the respective net asset values (NAVs, mainly driven by local investors). Moreover, this one‐way Granger‐causality effect from share prices to NAVs becomes much stronger during the crisis period after controlling for U.S. stock returns. Our results suggest international investors turned pessimistic before local investors. JEL classification: G15     

金融市场体系的关联性与社会资金配置格局

任何一种市场现象都是市场主体在特定的市场环境下一系列市场行为的反映,资金趋利避险的本能及其跨市场、跨品种、跨时段的套利行为,构成了金融市场运行的永恒的推动力.本文以诠释近期债券市场运行中的若干现象为出发点,循着社会资金流动的主线,透过经济主体的资金运作行为,时以信贷市场、债券市场和股票市场为支柱的金融市场体系间的资金互动关系进行了研究,从贴近现实经济生活的角度,分析了近年来较具代表性的金融市场行为的内在动机、市场背景和行为效果,对我国社会资金配置格局和金融市场运行效率作了初步的探讨,并提出相关政策建议.     

STRENGTHENING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM: ASSESSING THE CRISIS AND THE POLICY RESPONSE

The financial crisis that began with Thailand's devaluation in the summer of 1997 exposed significant weaknesses both in the structure of markets in emerging countries and in the crisis-prevention and crisis-management mechanisms built into the international financial system. Since then numerous efforts have been made to assess the causes of the crisis, and official institutions such as the Group of 7, the IMF, and the World Bank have laid out an agenda for reform.
This article discusses the four cornerstones of the reform program:

• 1

   Encouraging the development of sound, well-structured banking sectors subject to well-designed systems of bank regulation and supervision.
• 2

   Ensuring that private institutions have the incentives, governance structures, and internal controls in place to avoid inappropriate risks.
• 3

   Strengthening disclosure requirements to ensure that global lenders and investors have the quantity and quality of information they need to make informed judgments about risks and returns.
• 4

   Ensuring that monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policies are appropriate and resilient enough to permit emerging market governments to withstand a crisis.

As recommended in the article on Indonesia, the author encourages the private sector to make greater use of innovative financing arrangements to manage their risk exposures—for example, through standby lines of credit or pre-negotiated options that would allow a debtor to automatically restructure its obligations under certain conditions.     

金融企业上市的必然性、风险性及信息披露制度

自管理层明确表示支持金融企业上市以来,国内不少金融机构纷纷加快上市步伐,争取早日进入证券市场.上市是我国金融企业自身发展的需要,也是国际竞争环境变化的需要,对我国证券市场的发育成熟有着极大的促进作用.但同时我们也不应忽视,金融企业上市意味着风险的增加,而风险又主要来自于我国目前证券市场的缺陷、上市金融企业的经营压力、股价波动风险以及全球金融自由化背景下的被并购风险等.鉴于我国目前证券市场现状及金融企业的特殊性,信息披露制度的严格制定及实施显得尤为关键,近期出台的<公开发行证券公司信息披露编报规则>对上市金融企业的信息披露提出了特殊的要求.     

EMERGING EQUITY MARKETS: GROWTH, BENEFITS, AND POLICY CONCERNS

Since the mid-1980s, stock market activity has increased substantiallyin many developing countries. This article first examines themain characteristics of emerging stock markets and illustratesthe evolution of equity prices in these markets during the lastdecade. It then discusses the reasons for the markets' growthand assesses the extent to which they have been affected bydomestic policies and external factors. The authors discussthe likely benefits of these markets, the effects any abruptcorrection in stock prices could have for the economy, and theways in which these markets can be made more efficient.      

TRADING TIME EFFECTS IN FINANCIAL AND COMMODITY FUTURES MARKETS

Through the examination of one commodity contract, soybeans, and one financial contract, U.S. Treasury bonds, the authors test to determine (1) whether mean rates of return during trading times differ from mean rates of return during nontrading times; (2) whether mean returns during trading times and nontrading times differ by day of the week; (3) whether trading time returns differ significantly from previous nontrading time returns; and (4) the extent to which trading and previous nontrading returns are correlated. In addition, the authors empirically examine a possible explanation for the results obtained.     

加快政策性银行改革 完善政策性金融体系

随着中国改革开放事业的不断推进,金融体制和金融服务的改革和发展越来越成为社会各界广泛关注的重点。建立和完善具有中国特色的政策性金融体系,是深化金融改革一个重要环节。尽管从世界各国的发展来看,政策性金融活动在各国金融体系中的相对比重处于下降的趋势,但是,就其内在职能来看,     

DIFFERENTIATING FINANCIAL ACCOUNTABILITY AND MANAGEMENT IN GOVERNMENTS, PUBLIC SERVICES AND CHARITIES

This paper illustrates many types of not-for-profit organisations (NFPOs) whose characteristics of financial accountability and management differentiate them as suitable for study in this journal. It also more briefly introduces some of the distinctive characteristics of the environment of financial accountability and management in NFPOs. Its purpose is to give readers the flavour of the intended future coverage of FAM , which should include a wider range of disciplinary insights than appear in this first paper. The editor hopes that academics, practitioners and others will be stimulated to submit authoritative papers relating to any of the relevant organisations, characteristics or problems.