THE EFFECT OF MINIMUM WAGES ON UK AGRICULTURE

Since the abolition of the Wages Councils in September 1993, agriculture is the only sector in the UK economy covered by any form of minimum wage legislation. However, the recent denunciation of an ILO convention covering minimum wages in agriculture has paved the way for the abolition of the Agricultural Wages Boards. This paper investigates the impact of the system of minimum wages on the level and structure of earnings and employment in agriculture. On wages, our main conclusion is that the minimum wages set by the Agricultural Wages Boards are important determinants of the average level and distribution of earnings in UK agriculture. On employment, our main conclusion is that there is no evidence that minimum wages have reduced the level of employment in agriculture. If anything, our estimates imply a weak positive, though statistically insignificant, impact of minimum wages on employment. This seems to be true when we disaggregate by sex and skill.     

Poverty decline, agricultural wages, and nonfarm employment in rural India: 1983–2004

We analyze five rounds of National Sample Survey data covering 1983, 1987/1988, 1993/1994, 1999/2000, and 2004/2005 to explore the relationship between rural diversification and poverty. Poverty in rural India has declined at a modest rate during this time period. We provide region-level estimates that illustrate considerable geographic heterogeneity in this progress. Poverty estimates correlate well with region-level NSS data on changes in agricultural wage rates. Agricultural labor remains the preserve of the uneducated and also to a large extent of the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. We show that while agricultural labor grew as a share of total economic activity over the first four rounds, it had fallen back to the levels observed at the beginning of our survey period by 2004. This all-India trajectory also masks widely varying trends across states. During this period, the rural nonfarm sector has grown modestly, mainly between the last two survey rounds. Regular nonfarm employment remains largely associated with education levels and social status that are rare among the poor. However, casual labor and self-employment in the nonfarm sector reveals greater involvement by disadvantaged groups in 2004 than in the preceding rounds. The implication of this for poverty is not immediately clear—the poor may be pushed into low-return casual nonfarm activities due to lack of opportunities in the agricultural sector rather than being pulled by high returns offered by the nonfarm sector. Econometric estimates reveal that expansion of the nonfarm sector is associated with falling poverty via two routes: a direct impact on poverty that is likely due to a pro-poor marginal incidence of nonfarm employment expansion; and an indirect impact attributable to the positive effect of nonfarm employment growth on agricultural wages. The analysis also confirms the important contribution to rural poverty reduction from agricultural productivity, availability of land, and consumption levels in proximate urban areas.     

Labour Market Effects of a Female Stipend Programme in Bangladesh

Bangladesh's female secondary education stipend programme was one of the first conditional cash transfer programmes in the world. While numerous studies have investigated the impacts of such programmes on school enrolment, attendance and learning, less attention has been paid to their long-term labour market effects. This article extends the literature by studying the effects of Bangladesh's programme on earnings and the sector of employment, as well as on labour force participation and education outcomes, using repeated cross-sectional data in a difference-in-difference framework. We find that exposure to 5 years of the programme is be associated with a 1-year increase in education level completed and an increase in female labour force participation by six percentage points. However, we find that wages decrease by about 17% because the women have difficulties in finding a good job and end up in low productivity self-employment work.     

Short-term employment transitions of the Canadian labour force: rural-urban differences in underemployment

Using data from the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for the period 1993–1996, we examine patterns and determinants of labour‐force transitions of adequately employed and underemployed workers in an attempt to explore whether employment dynamics significantly differ between rural and urban workers so as to disadvantage rural economic performance. The results indicate that rural adequately employed workers are significantly more likely to enter underemployment but once they are underemployed, they also have a higher probability of re‐entering adequate employment. Further, we also found weak evidence that the education level of workers has a lower impact on the probability of moving out of underemployment in rural than in urban areas. In addition, rural women are significantly less likely than their male counterparts and urban workers to enter adequate employment, although the presence of young children does not seem to especially constrain the employment of rural women. The results suggest that labour‐force transition in and out of adequate employment, and particularly underemployment, significantly differ between rural and urban workers and should be taken into account when evaluating employment hardship in rural Canada.     

Human capital,labour market outcomes,and horizontal inequality in Guatemala

With the second largest indigenous population by percentage in Latin America, Guatemala is an important case for understanding horizontal inequality and indigenous politics. This paper presents new analysis of survey data, allowing for consideration both of indigenous and ladino populations, as well as of ethno-linguistic diversity within the indigenous population. Our analysis illustrates both the depth and persistence of horizontal inequalities in educational and labour market outcomes, and a broad trend towards greater equality. Earnings gaps have been reduced by, among other factors, improved educational outcomes. Ethnic groups also show distinct patterns of wages and wage gaps, and there is evidence of ‘sticky floors’ affecting some groups more than others. Our findings suggest that the focus on the indigenous/non-indigenous divide found in much of the economic literature on Latin America obscures meaningful diversity within the indigenous population. We posit that further consideration of such within-group diversity has implications for broader theories of ethnic politics, and in particular for understanding the comparative weakness of indigenous political mobilisation in Guatemala.     

Labour Demand in the Post‐apartheid South African Wine Industry

In 2013 the minimum agricultural wage in South Africa was increased by an unprecedented 51%. We use data on 77 Western Cape Province wine grape farms from 2005–2015 to estimate the impacts on employment. Previous post‐apartheid labour market reforms increased minimum wages substantially, but re‐entry to global markets after sanctions were lifted increased demand and this preserved jobs in the wine sector. However, by 2005 this demand growth had largely ceased. The long‐run wage elasticity for permanent employees was found to be ?0.4, but for casual workers the figure was ?4.7, so the 51% wage increase is likely to decimate casual employment in the future. Thus, the poorest and most vulnerable casual workers lose most in terms of jobs, incomes and secure livelihoods, whereas 80% of full‐time staff benefit from the higher minimum wages. Thus, the minimum wage change is likely to increase the gap between privileged permanent staff and casual workers. This result is not surprising in view of the long‐standing interdependence between farmers and their permanent workers in wine grape production.     

Intertemporal analysis of employment decisions on agricultural holdings in Slovenia

The article attempts to quantify determinants influencing the dynamics of employment decisions on agricultural holdings in Slovenia and to test specific aspects of labor reallocation during the transition period by the application of an agricultural household model. Through the use of a 1991–2000 longitudinal data set for 22,055 farm households, quantitative analysis of intertemporal employment decisions by farm holders is carried out using probit techniques. The determinants tested relate to the personal characteristics of farm holders (gender, age, education level, and potential off‐farm income), household characteristics (size, structure), characteristics of the agricultural holding (economic size, labor intensity), and local labor market conditions. The model results generally confirm existing empirical evidence on asymmetrical and irreversible participation of holders on the labor market. Despite intensive restructuring of agriculture and profound changes in the nonfarm labor market in the analyzed period, labor supply of farm holders remains rigid. The mobility of labor supply is lower than expected, which can be attributed to the importance of structural problems constraining intersectoral mobility. Low labor mobility reduces the efficiency of labor allocation on agricultural holdings in Slovenia. Elements of this problem emerge on both supply (e.g., low level of educational and professional attainment of reference persons) and demand sides of the labor market (e.g., unfavorable local labor market conditions). A marked tendency toward maintaining the same employment status is more distinct in the case of holders employed on‐farm only.     

全面“停伐”后国有林区居民主观福祉影响因素分析

基于2017年国家林业局和东北林业大学联合开展的"重点国有林区改革监测"项目的数据,建立结构方程模型对国有林区居民主观福祉的影响因素及其关系进行实证分析。结果表明:因子分析验证了国有林区居民主观福祉模型的合理性;全面停伐政策满意度是影响国有林区居民主观福祉的重要因素;个体状况、社会状况、家庭关系满意度、邻里关系满意度、个体满意度、社会保障变化和生活水平变化都对国有林区居民的主观福祉具有显著的正向影响;收入和就业仍然是影响国有林区居民主观福祉的关键因素。全面"停伐"政策对国有林区居民的影响主要不是现实的,而是心理上潜在的。因此,建议重点关注转岗分流职工,消除其对就业、保险的担忧;特别要关注在册不在岗职工的就业问题,有针对性地采取相关措施保障其就业;通过社区平台加强国有林区管理部门与国有林区居民的沟通,以便增强国有林区居民未来生活信心。     

Shadow wages, allocative inefficiency, and labor supply in smallholder agriculture

This article introduces a method for estimating structural labor supply models in the presence of unobservable wages and deviations of households' marginal revenue product of self‐employed labor from their shadow wage. This method is therefore robust to a wide range of assumptions about labor allocation decisions in the presence of uncertainty, market frictions, locational preferences, etc. We illustrate the method using data from rice producers in Côte d'Ivoire. These data, like previous studies, reveal significant systematic differences between shadow wages and the marginal revenue product of family farm labor. We demonstrate how one can exploit systematic deviations, in the present case related to household characteristics such as the land/labor endowment ratio, to control for both unobservable wages and prospective allocative inefficiency in labor allocation in structural household labor supply estimation.     

Where Does Education Pay Off in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from Two Cities of the Republic of Congo

Using first-hand data from the 2009 Employment and Informal Sector Survey (EESIC) in the two largest cities of the Republic of Congo, Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire, we analyze the impact of education on labour market outcomes, and identify the segments where education pays off the most. Multivariate analyses of the risk of unemployment and sectoral choice indicate that young people face serious difficulties in the labour market: for most of them, their only choice is to remain unemployed or to join the informal sector. To measure the specific impact of schooling on earnings, we address issues related to sample selection and endogeneity of education in the earnings function. The results shed light on heterogeneity in the returns to schooling across the two main cities and institutional sectors. An important finding is that the informal sector does not systematically lag behind the formal sectors in terms of returns to education. We emphasize convex returns to education, meaning that the last years in secondary and tertiary schooling yield the highest returns, while those of primary education are generally lower. This convexity is also apparent in the informal sector, where education (albeit on another scale) again appears as an important determinant of earnings.     

Moving off the farm and intensifying agricultural production in Shandong: a case study of rural labor market linkages in China

This study examines linkages between off-farm labor markets and the labor allocated by farmers to on-farm production of fruit crops. Using a stratified random sample of rural households in Shandong Province, we find that young and educated members of the labor force tend to work more frequently in the off-farm labor market, and that off-farm employment reduces the likelihood and intensity of fruit production. Fruit production is associated with lower levels of off-farm employment. Households and individuals who are less likely (or able) to find off-farm employment can benefit from shifting into fruit production. Although off-farm employment is an important avenue out of poverty, fruit production provides ways for the less educated and older households to raise their income.     

Decent rural employment and farm production efficiency: empirical evidence from Tanzania and Ethiopia

Promoting decent rural employment, by creating new jobs in rural areas and upgrading the existing ones, could be one of the most efficient pathways to reduce rural poverty. This article systematically investigates the impact of decent rural employment on agricultural production efficiency in Ethiopia and Tanzania. The analysis applies an output‐oriented distance function approach with an estimation procedure that accounts for different technological, demographic, socioeconomic, institutional, and decent rural employment indicators. Data of the 2011 round of Living Standards Measurement Study‐Integrated Surveys on Agriculture for the two countries are used, and a set of indicators is derived to proxy core dimensions of decent rural employment. The findings of our analysis show that decent rural employment contributes to agricultural production efficiency.     

The social cost of labor in rural development: job creation benefits re-examined

Job creation effects are examined as they would apply to social analysis of rural development programming by public or private sector agencies. A synthesis and critique are provided of approaches to valuing the social opportunity cost of labor. These approaches vary according to whether or not unemployment is present in the pre‐project state and according to whether or not there is interregional migration in response to project hiring. Graphical, partial equilibrium analysis illustrates why, in general, job creation and project employment give rise to social costs, not benefits. The magnitude of these social costs is shown to depend upon the presence of payroll taxes, wage subsidies and unemployment, in addition to the market's supply and demand elasticities. These social costs may be reduced or offset in specific instances where projects increase the value of labor's productivity or reduce its costs, such as with job training, worker mobility and skill development projects. Careful attention to these approaches can help society choose correctly among alternative development proposals and among alternative (labor‐intensive versus capital‐intensive) technologies.     

An economic interpretation of structural changes in the bovine population of India

Abstract

A computable general equilibrium model based on a social accounting matrix for Kenya is used to simulate the effects of 10% devaluation, 10% increased investment and 10% agricultural productivity improvement on the macro‐economy and on the real incomes of the poor. For each policy simulation two specifications for the labour markets are adopted, the first assuming unlimited supplies of labour at given nominal wages and the second fixed supplies so that wages are determined endogenously. These affect the results crucially. Under the first assumption, devaluation provides a 10% boost to real gross domestic product (GDP) and has highly favourable effects on agricultural production, exports, the current account deficit, employment and poverty. Under the second assumption, it has a largely inflationary impact, with attenuated effects on real GDP and no effect on the current account deficit. Agricultural productivity improvement is less affected by the different specifications and compares favourably with devaluation except for its smaller impact on GDP. The increased investment policy is found to be inferior on most counts. All three policies decrease poverty, though income distribution remains stable.     

Sectoral and poverty impacts of agricultural policy adjustments in Colombia

We aim to assess the sectoral and poverty impacts of changes in agricultural policy in Colombia. For this, we use an agriculture specialized static computable general equilibrium model, together with a microsimulation model that allows employment to shift between sectors. Results indicate that the sectoral impact from policy changes tends to be small and that it considerably varies across crops. The macro model yields some gains in wages and capital rents, a relatively larger increase in land rents, and limited labor reallocation, together leading to small poverty impacts as calculated through the microsimulation model. The incidence of rural poverty decreases by less than 1% and the same happens to the poverty gap. In addition, poverty reductions are concentrated among households near the middle of the income distribution.     

Agro-Manufactured Export Prices, Wages and Unemployment

This article estimates the impacts of world agricultural trade liberalization on wages and unemployment in Argentina in the presence of individual labor supply responses and adjustment costs in labor demand. After a 10% increase in agro-manufactured export prices, I find that: ( a ) the employment probability would increase by 1.36 percentage points, matched by a decline in the unemployment probability of 0.75 percentage points and an increase in labor market participation of 0.61 percentage points; ( b ) the unemployment rate would decline by 1.23 percentage points; ( c ) expected wages would increase by 10.3%, mostly due to higher employment probabilities.     

Who has two jobs and why? Evidence from rural coastal communities in west Scotland

This article examines the incidence of and reasons for multiple‐job holding in the context of rural communities where multiple‐job holding is viewed as an important means of promoting community sustainability. Drawing upon a unique data set of a relatively homogeneous population living in an isolated area on the west coast of Scotland, where employment opportunities are limited, dual‐job holding is investigated within the fisheries and aquaculture occupations. Evidence is found that the hours constraints motive for multiple‐job holding better explains multiple‐job‐holding behavior among employed rural workers in aquaculture than among self‐employed fishermen, and that educational attainment has a positive impact on the incidence of multiple‐job holding.     

Dynamics of rice prices and agricultural wages in the Philippines

Rice trade liberalization in the Philippines should decrease domestic rice prices impacting both agricultural wages and the welfare of agricultural wage earners. This study examines the short-run and long-run relationship between rice prices and agricultural wages in the Philippines using a neoclassical wage determination model. Three empirical frameworks are used—a cointegration/error correction framework, which assumes nonstationary variables in long-run equilibrium, a first difference model that assumes nonstationary variables but no long-run equilibrium, and an OLS framework that assumes the model variables are stationary. Conclusions are reasonably robust across the three empirical frameworks with wages adjusting positively to rice price changes with a short-run elasticity of 0.29 to 0.57, and a long-run elasticity of 0.70 to 1.0 in preferred models. An analysis of welfare implications suggests that although households that are heavily reliant on agricultural wages for income will be adversely affected by rice price decreases, other households will benefit.     

Structural Variations of Agriculture in the Pacific

Agricultural shares of output and employment in thirteen Pacific basin countries are analyzed with reference to a global baseline for 1980. Per-capita output parity ratios are lower in the ASEAN, ANICs, and Japan as compared to their trading partners in North America and Oceania. Wide differences in land-labor ratios influence the directions of technological change, economies of scale, and dynamic comparative advantage. Differential changes in the partial productivities of land and labor between the high and middle income economies suggest that there has been a narrowing of the gap in land productivities and a widening of the gap in labor productivities across the Pacific. The implication is that there has been a regressive international impact on wages for farm labor. Further, since agriculture's share of land resources does not tend to fall as fast as its share of output and labor, increasing structural imbalance in terms of differential land rents to agriculture vis-à-vis non-agriculture results in greater adjustment pressures on the property and derived institutional systems that control natural resource allocation decisions. The results are consistent with the heavy adjustment burdens that agriculture and developing economies have been bearing as a result of expanding trade and capital flows, and the need to focus more attention on the structure, functioning, and performance of the different institutional systems that control resource allocation decisions in these countries.     

Agricultural technology and child labor: evidence from India

Child labor continues to be a major problem in developing countries, particularly in agricultural countries. The latest ILO global report points out that nine out of every ten child laborers is involved in the agricultural sector. The focus of this article is on the rural sector in India, a country where child labor continues to be prevalent. A number of factors have been found to significantly influence the extent of child labor. This article will focus on the type of technology utilized in the agricultural sector. Technology is divided into two types: biochemical and mechanical. The empirical results indicate that biochemical technology has both positive and negative effects on child labor. However, mechanical technology is found to have a statistically significant and negative impact on child labor.