Risk-matching behavior in microcredit group formation: evidence from northern Ethiopia

Theoretical models on group lending assume the formation of groups of homogenous risk types. Recent theoretical and empirical findings challenge this view arguing that when markets for insurance are missing, risk homogeneity may not hold any more and risk heterogeneity can be the optimal outcome. Using data from an MFI in Tigray (Ethiopia), this article examines the homogeneity hypothesis and reflects on implications for repayment. No evidence is found that supports risk homogeneity, even accounting for matching frictions. However, we also do not find an explicit link between the presence of risk heterogeneity and side-payments due to missing insurance as suggested in the literature. Instead, other trust-based social networks seem to underlie heterogeneity. Such social networks are often synchronized with credit groups and influence the probability of repayment under heterogeneity. The implication is that successful repayment rates in group lending need not arise only under risk homogeneity but can also arise under risk heterogeneity. Heterogeneity may also serve to bridge missing insurance markets in poor rural environments. MFIs therefore need to consider such local conditions when designing their lending schemes.     

Poverty decline, agricultural wages, and nonfarm employment in rural India: 1983–2004

We analyze five rounds of National Sample Survey data covering 1983, 1987/1988, 1993/1994, 1999/2000, and 2004/2005 to explore the relationship between rural diversification and poverty. Poverty in rural India has declined at a modest rate during this time period. We provide region-level estimates that illustrate considerable geographic heterogeneity in this progress. Poverty estimates correlate well with region-level NSS data on changes in agricultural wage rates. Agricultural labor remains the preserve of the uneducated and also to a large extent of the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. We show that while agricultural labor grew as a share of total economic activity over the first four rounds, it had fallen back to the levels observed at the beginning of our survey period by 2004. This all-India trajectory also masks widely varying trends across states. During this period, the rural nonfarm sector has grown modestly, mainly between the last two survey rounds. Regular nonfarm employment remains largely associated with education levels and social status that are rare among the poor. However, casual labor and self-employment in the nonfarm sector reveals greater involvement by disadvantaged groups in 2004 than in the preceding rounds. The implication of this for poverty is not immediately clear—the poor may be pushed into low-return casual nonfarm activities due to lack of opportunities in the agricultural sector rather than being pulled by high returns offered by the nonfarm sector. Econometric estimates reveal that expansion of the nonfarm sector is associated with falling poverty via two routes: a direct impact on poverty that is likely due to a pro-poor marginal incidence of nonfarm employment expansion; and an indirect impact attributable to the positive effect of nonfarm employment growth on agricultural wages. The analysis also confirms the important contribution to rural poverty reduction from agricultural productivity, availability of land, and consumption levels in proximate urban areas.     

Trust,trustworthiness, and traditional Islamic education

This paper examines traditional Islamic school (i.e. madrasah) attendance as a determinant of social attitudes among secondary-schooled adolescents in rural Bangladesh. Although both recognized and traditional madrasah-enrolled adolescents show greater support for charity, we find no evidence that traditional madrasah attendance promotes “trust in others”. Attendance at recognized madrasahs, which use a state-approved curriculum, however, significantly increases social trust. The madrasah–trust connection is not explained by the role of teachers’ attitudes towards trust or professional background. Nor do we find evidence that the absence of an effect of traditional madrasah attendance on social trust is driven by their geographic locations. Given the differences between the two groups in terms of stated social preferences, our analysis warns against the practice of lumping state-recognized madrasahs and traditional madrasahs into one category.     

Did the Pathogen Reduction and Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points Regulation Cause Slaughter Plants to Exit?

Our multiperiod analysis tested whether the 1996 Pathogen Reduction and Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points food safety regulation affected the probability of slaughter plant exit. We estimated probit models using pooled plant-level datasets for the preimplementation, implementation, and postimplementation periods. Results suggest that very small and small meat slaughter plants were more likely to exit during implementation than during preimplementation but less likely after implementation. In contrast, the results suggest the regulation had little effect on the probability of very small and small poultry slaughter plant exit during implementation but may have affected the probability of exit postimplementation.     

Horizontal inequality and ethnic diversity in Brazil: patterns,trends, and their impacts on institutions

In this paper, we analyse the patterns and trends of horizontal inequality and ethnic diversity in Brazil in the past 30 years and their effect on the quality of the country’s institutions. Using data from the last four demographic censuses (1980, 1991, 2000, and 2010), we estimate numerous measures to analyse inequalities between different ‘ethnic’ groups. Our results show that, in Brazil between 1980 and 2010, the trend toward greater equality shown in other analyses of vertical inequality, is also found in terms of horizontal inequalities along racial, gender, and regional lines. Nevertheless, horizontal inequalities in terms of race and gender, in particular, remain pronounced. Ethnic diversity regarding race and religion has increased since 1980. Through our regression analysis, we note that both horizontal inequality and ethnic diversity negatively affect the institutional quality of Brazilian municipalities.     

Context matters: Oil palm production and women's dietary diversity in the tropical forest of Cameroon

Oil palm is one of the most rapidly expanding food and cash crops in many tropical regions with significant environmental implications, but also economic gains. Previous analyses have established that this expansion is associated with changing gender roles and time allocation for women. Time allocation is an important determinant of maternal and child nutrition as well as well-being. We use a rich farm household survey from a native oil palm production hotspot, Cameroon, to examine the associations between oil palm production and women's dietary diversity. Using different estimation and identification strategies with some sensitivity checks, we show that oil palm is associated with lower dietary diversity for women, measured as the minimum dietary diversity for women and the minimum adequacy diversity diet. We explore heterogeneity in the various food groups consumed by women and show that oil palm production is associated with lower consumption of mainly pulses, fruits and vegetables. These findings contrast with the literature that has established some positive dietary diversity implications of oil palm expansion in Southeast Asia. We carefully discuss these findings and argue that context matters and may explain these differences. Particularly, we show that oil palm production is negatively associated with farm production diversity in Cameroon. Notwithstanding, we also confirm previous findings that highlight that oil palm production is associated with higher income. These insights add to the debate on the implications of oil palm expansion in tropical environments. Moreover, they can guide policy in designing more tailored interventions that address nutrition issues and improve rural development.     

乡村社会资本与农户宅基地退出——基于江西省余江区522户农户样本

研究目的:基于江西省余江区522份农户调研数据,揭示社会资本因素在农户退出宅基地决策中的影响机理,以期为同类型地区提供合理化的政策建议。研究方法:描述性统计分析法和Ivprobit模型。研究结果:乡村社会资本所包含的社会信任、社会网络、社会规范3个维度在农户宅基地退出过程中发挥着重要作用,平均边际效应分别为0.022、0.043和0.053;社会网络在社会规范对农户宅基地退出的影响中发挥了增强性调节作用。研究结论:引导农户自愿有序退出宅基地应找到符合农村社会现实的着力点,提升农户社会信任水平,扩大农户社会网络,发挥社会规范的驱动作用。     

Migrant Organization and Hometown Impacts in Rural Mexico

The interaction between migration, development and rural democratization is not well understood. Exit is usually understood as an alternative to voice, but the Mexican experience with cross-border social and civic action led by hometown associations suggests that exit can also be followed by voice. This article explores migrant impacts on hometown civic life, focusing on voice and bargaining over community development investments of collective remittances that are matched by government social funds. The most significant democratizing impacts include expatriate pressures on local governments for accountability and greater voice for outlying villages in municipal decision-making.     

The Dynamics of Farm Incomes: Panel data analysis using the Farm Accounts Survey

This paper uses longitudinal information from the Scottish Farm Accounts Survey to explore the dynamics of Scottish farm incomes between 1988/89 and 1999/2000. Both the Net Farm Income and Cash Income of farms are considered. The results show high levels of income variability and income mobility within Scottish agriculture. Although exit rates from the lowest income groups remain relatively high even when spells of low income have lasted a number of years, there is evidence of farms with persistent low farm income and farms experiencing repeated spells of low‐income. Smaller farm size and having a farmer aged over 65 increase both the probability that a farm will fall into the lowest income group and the length of time spent in that income group. Further the results suggest that the impact of the post‐1997 agricultural recession on income mobility depended on the income status of the farm when the recession began.     

信息干预可以减少消费者转基因食品客观认知扭曲吗——基于行为实验的证据

社会群体在信息传递中发挥着重要作用,伴随新兴网络群体的发展,政府风险交流的对象不仅仅在于个体,而可能是一个群体.针对中国的现实信息情境,本文基于社会影响理论视角,通过设定现场行为实验情景,探讨了社会影响对消费者转基因食品客观认知水平的作用机制和影响显著性.研究表明,科学知识普及比同伴群体更有利于改善消费者转基因食品客观...     

The adoption of intensive monocrop horticulture in southern Cameroon

Results from a 1997 survey of 208 households in the humid forest zone of southern Cameroon indicate that African policy makers seeking to intensify agricultural production should focus attention on the horticultural sub‐sector. The survey, which gathered information on horticultural production practices, found that the average expenditure on agro‐chemical inputs by horticultural producers using monocrop production systems was 190US$/ha, which greatly exceeds the FAO reported national average expenditure of 6.50 US$/ha. A logit model of monocrop adoption indicated that the size of land holding per household had a negative effect on adoption, congruent with population‐driven technical change and that increases in unit transportation costs significantly decreased the probability of adoption. These findings suggest that policy makers should target horticultural intensification in areas of higher population density and promote investment in rural roads. The age of the household head had a significant negative and elastic effect on adoption, which in combination with an increase in the cohort of younger farmers in the rural population induced by macro‐economic events contributed to the spread of intensified horticulture. In the study area, roughly two‐thirds of rural households also produce cocoa and the quantity of cocoa produced was positively associated with adoption of intensive horticultural systems suggesting that export crop promotion indirectly facilitated diversification of agriculture. Women's participation in intensive monocrop production was limited and efforts to promote their greater involvement are recommended.     

Farm households and nonfarm activities in Ethiopia: does clustering influence entry and exit?

This article examines how clustering affects the entry and exit decisions of farm households into and from nonfarm enterprises in rural Ethiopia. We find that the existence of clusters of microenterprises in the same district increases the likelihood of a rural household to start a nonfarm enterprise. Similarly, clustering of big manufacturing firms in the same zone is found to increase the likelihood of farm households to start a nonfarm enterprise. Nonfarm enterprises operating in clusters are also found to have a lower probability of exit than those operating outside of clusters. The study further investigates the impact of entry and exit into and from nonfarm enterprises on farm household's well‐being using as indicators total household income, the food security status of a household, and the household's ability to raise enough money in case of emergency. Using propensity score matching to account for selection bias, we find that entry into nonfarm enterprises significantly increases household's income and food security status. Exit from nonfarm enterprises, on the other hand, is found to significantly reduce household's income.     

The nexus between gender,collective action for public goods and agriculture: evidence from Malawi

Across the developing world, public goods exert significant impacts on the local rural economy in general and agricultural productivity and welfare outcomes in particular. Economic and social‐cultural heterogeneity have, however, long been documented as detrimental to collective capacity to provide public goods. In particular, women are often underrepresented in local leadership and decision‐making processes, as are young adults and minority ethnic groups. While democratic principles dictate that broad civic engagement by women and other groups could improve the efficiency and effectiveness of local governance and increase public goods provision, the empirical evidence on these hypotheses is scant. This article develops a theoretical model highlighting the complexity of constructing a “fair” schedule of individual contributions, given heterogeneity in costs and benefits that accrue to people depending, for instance, on their gender, age, ethnicity, and education. The model demonstrates that representative leadership and broad participation in community organizations can mitigate the negative impacts of heterogeneity on collective capacity to provide public goods. Nationally representative household survey data from Malawi, combined with geospatial and administrative information, are used to test this hypothesis and to estimate the relationship between collective capacity for public good provision and community median estimates of maize yields and household consumption expenditures per capita. The analysis shows that similarities between the leadership and the general population in terms of gender and age, and active participation by women and young adult in community groups, alleviate the negative effects of heterogeneity and increase collective capacity, which in turn improves agriculture productivity and welfare.     

风险认知、社会信任与农户宅基地退出意愿基于江苏省扬州市418户农户调查的数据

目的 研究风险认知对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响,以及社会信任在两者中的调节作用,探究风险认知对农户宅基地退出意愿的作用机制,引导农户自愿有偿退出宅基地,提高农村土地资源利用效率,促进城乡融合发展具有重要现实意义。方法 文章基于江苏省扬州市418户农户调查数据,采用主成分分析测度风险认知和社会信任等变量,并运用Logit模型对提出的理论假说进行实证检验。结果 （1）实证结果表明,风险认知对农户宅基地退出意愿有负向影响,而社会信任则有正向影响。（2）具体来看,风险认知对高社会信任农户和低社会信任农户宅基地退出的意愿均有负向影响,社会信任能缓解风险认知对宅基地退出意愿的不利影响,人际信任和制度信任都有助于农户宅基地退出意愿的提升;区分在城镇有无住房农户进行异质性分析,也验证了上述研究结论。（3）控制变量中,户主年龄和房屋居住年限对农户宅基地退出意愿具有显著的正向影响,而家庭承包地面积和距离县城距离对农户宅基地退出意愿有显著的负向影响。结论 为进一步推动农户宅基地有序退出,应该完善农户宅基地退出后各项保障政策,改善和提升农户社会信任水平以及构建差别化宅基地退出机制和政策。     

Shadow pricing diversity in U. S. national forests

Tobit estimation of the market value of timber sales in national forests of North Carolina demonstrates the important effect of stand diversity on the formulation of bid prices for mixed-species timber tracts. The hedonic model generates a shadow price for diversity according to changes in bid prices, an effective shift in the demand curve for auctioned tracts due to stand diversity attributes. This approach contrasts with traditional shadow price analyses that focus on the supply effects of environmental constraints. Results are corrected for the effects of bidder participation, market conditions, production costs, and other stand attributes. Econometric results demonstrate that stand heterogeneity is a highly significant factor influencing the market value of timber sales from national forests of the Appalachian region. Greater heterogeneity results in lower bid prices for timber sales, indicating a positive shadow price for maintenance of stand diversity.     

Can women's self‐help groups improve access to information,decision‐making,and agricultural practices? The Indian case

Effective agricultural extension is key to improving productivity, increasing farmers’ access to information, and promoting more diverse sets of crops and improved methods of cultivation. In India, however, the coverage of agricultural extension workers and the relevance of extension advice is poor. We investigate whether a women's self‐help group (SHG) platform could be an effective way of improving access to information, women's empowerment in agriculture, agricultural practices, and production diversity. We use cross‐sectional data on close to 1,000 women from five states in India and employ nearest‐neighbor matching models to match SHG and non‐SHG women along a range of observed characteristics. We find that participation in an SHG increases women's access to information and their participation in some agricultural decisions, but has limited impact on agricultural practices or outcomes, possibly due to financial constraints, social norms, and women's domestic responsibilities. SHGs need to go beyond provision of information to changing the dynamics around women's participation in agriculture to effectively translate knowledge into practice.     

Factors determining intercropping by rubber smallholders in Sri Lanka: a logit analysis

Variables related to farmers' awareness and attitudes towards intercropping of immature rubber (Hevea brusiliensis) stands, extension contacts, education level, and experience with farming other crops are positively associated with the probability of adoption. Higher levels of off‐farm income are associated with reduced intercropping in immature rubber stands. Farmers who are sole owners of the land and engaged in full or part‐time rubber farming show lower adoption rates than other land ownership groups. Social participation, family size, experience with farming rubber, immature and mature rubber stands size, and the nature of the land (flat/sloped) do not significantly influence adoption. These conclusions were obtained from a logit model estimated by employing the results of a survey of 588 smallholder rubber farmers from five major rubber‐growing regions in Sri Lanka.     

Does human capital raise farm or nonfarm earning more? New insight from a rural Pakistan household panel

This study explores how human capital affects farm household earnings using two tools to refine measurement of human capital effects. First, it employs a two‐sector model to allow the allocation of family labor between farm and nonfarm activities. Second, it accounts for village fixed effects to evaluate whether results from panel data differ meaningfully from a cross‐sectional data analysis with local binary variables. The results show that education has a negligible effect on farm earnings; instead, experience appears to be the principal channel by which human capital affects agricultural performance in a traditional rural setting. Our results also suggest that prior models that fail to separate nonfarm activities spuriously exaggerated the effect of education to the farm sector. In addition, typical cross‐sectional analyses that ignore fixed effects may cause the effects of education on rural household earnings to be significantly overstated. The fact that panel data regressions accounting for village‐level fixed effects found only one instance of education raising earnings—the effect of literacy on nonfarm income—suggests that considerable heterogeneity may have been ignored in cross‐sectional data analyses, especially ones that omitted village‐level effects.     

From Farm to Kitchen: How Gender Affects Production Diversity and the Dietary Intake of Farm Households in Ethiopia

Malnutrition in farm households remains a significant problem in many developing countries and is linked to a lack of diversity in diets. We explore how gender differences might affect household dietary diversity using the LSMS‐ISA Ethiopia panel dataset. Drawing on a farm household framework, nonlinear panel models are estimated allowing for unobserved heterogeneity and production endogeneity using a control function. We use decomposition techniques to identify the impact of different potential sources of gender difference in dietary diversity. Our results provide evidence of significant gender effects in production diversity and in dietary diversity using the food variety score (FVS). For other indicators of dietary diversity, the evidence of gender effects is weaker. The decomposition results suggest that, after controlling for differences in characteristics, female‐headed households are at a dietary diversity disadvantage. Gender differences in the relationship between production diversity, price and income and dietary diversity and the production diversity decisions appear to be the main drivers. The results also suggest that female preferences are more orientated towards ensuring greater dietary diversity in the household. Our evidence also suggests that a key driver of gender disadvantage in dietary diversity is related to whether food is sourced from the household’s own production or the market. This implies that part of the observed negative gender impact on dietary diversity may stem from differences in marketing and storage of own production through the year.     

农户农地流转行为存在社会互动效应吗？

研究目的:分析农户农地转出行为的社会互动效应,以期更好地解读农户的行为决策,为农地流转政策的完善提供参考。研究方法:离散选择互动模型,Logit模型。研究结果:(1)农地转出行为存在显著的内生互动效应,同村庄其他农户的转出行为正向影响个体农户的农地转出概率。(2)内生互动效应存在区域差异,西部地区的农户对他人转出行为更敏感,流转决策的依赖性更强。(3)非农经营具有正向溢出效应,经营非农产业不仅影响自身的农地流转决策,还会提高其他农户的农地转出概率。研究结论:农户农地流转行为并非独立,而是相互影响的,相关政策可以通过优先干预部分农户、鼓励非农创业的方式促进农地使用权有序流转。