Housing capital-gains taxation and homeowner mobility: Evidence from the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997

We provide new evidence on the impact of housing capital-gains taxation on homeowner behavior by examining residential mobility before and after the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 (TRA97), which generated the most sweeping reform of capital-gains taxation in the last two decades. In addition to lowering marginal tax rates on long-term capital gains for all assets, TRA97 also eliminated any differential treatment of housing gains above and below age 55, allowing all homeowners to qualify for capital-gains exclusions. Utilizing data drawn from the Current Population Survey (CPS) on either side of the law change (1996 and 1998) on homeowners just above (56–58 year olds) and below (52–54 year olds) the age-55 threshold and a reduced-form, difference-in-difference empirical approach, our estimates suggest that the repeal of the differential capital-gains tax treatment by age embodied in TRA97 had an economically important and statistically significant impact on the residential mobility of under-55 homeowners. Across a variety of specifications, the repeal raised the mobility rate by around 1–1.4 percentage points, which, for a mean mobility rate of 4 percentage points, represented an increase in the mobility rate of homeowners in their early 50s by 22–31%. Furthermore, the bulk of this effect was concentrated among highly mobile homeowners who a priori were more likely to have wanted to trade down (e.g., divorced, empty nesters), those facing higher capital gains tax rates, and those living in states that had experienced higher rates of nominal appreciation.     

主房反向抵押贷款支持老年人收入拓展

在当前全球人口老龄化趋势下,如何解决由此产生的老龄人口退休收入短缺及财政困境成为各国学者及政策制定者关注的热点。住房反向抵押贷款作为拓展老年人退休收入的一种金融创新手段,在欧美市场已经发展成为一种成熟的金融工具。随着9月国务院提出“开展老年人住房反向抵押养老保险试点”,“反向抵押贷款”模式的“以房养老”再次进入公众视野,成为当前公共政策研究热点,并引发了民众关于“政府在养老体系中责任”的大辩论。本文以此为契机,通过已有的文献构建反向抵押贷款理论框架,讨论反向抵押贷款的优缺点、风险及影响反向抵押贷款市场的相关变量,系统还原这一金融工具的运行机制,消除公众对其的误解并结合这·理论框架探讨‘‘反向抵押贷款’雀本土化过程中存在的困境。本文认为,在中国,遗产赠予动机是老年住房自有者在当前住房市场下为实现整个家庭代际福利最大化做出的“理性选择”;‘饭．向抵押贷款”中贷款金融机构面临的风险高于借款人,老年人实现住房资产的流动性是以牺牲贷款金融机构现金流动性为代价的。因此,未来需要探讨的是,政府在推进的过程中如何降低各方风险,减少未知不确定J}生风险的问题。     

Federalism,taxation, and economic growth

We present a model of endogenous growth where government provides a productive public good financed by income and capital taxes. In equilibrium, a decentralized government chooses tax policy to maximize economic growth, while a centralized government does not do so. Furthermore, these conclusions hold regardless of whether governments are beholden to a median voter or are rent-maximizing Leviathans. However, a decentralized government will under-provide public goods which benefit citizens directly, while a central government beholden to the median voter will optimally invest in such public goods.     

多套住房、可支付性和政策

随着经济全球化,现代交通、通讯方式导致的人口流动性增强,富裕群体热衷于购买休闲度假和投资用途的第二住宅,多套住宅规模呈扩大趋势。多套住房可以分为转卖和暂时空置、购买后出租、自住用途第二住宅。从短期来看,在一个供求均衡的市场,第三类第二住宅的冲击会导致中低收入阶层的住房可支付能力下降,前两者不影响。供不应求市场和供求均衡市场结果一样,但影响更大。供过于求市场则没有影响。从长期来看,结论依然和短期一样。可行的政策有加强商品房和保障性住房的供应,征收物业税减少住房的空置和闲置等,并提出了改进中国多套住房政策的建议。     

中国住房反向抵押贷款养老模式的路径选择

人口老龄化是不可忽视的社会问题,寻求积极的养老模式是迫在眉睫的任务。住房反向抵押贷款作为新的养老模式,受到政治、经济、文化等多方面因素影响。本研究旨在从需求角度分析对住房反向抵押贷款最具影响力的因素,设计出中国推行住房反向抵押贷款养老模式的地区发展路径。研究结果有助于制定适合中国国情的住房反向抵押贷款养老模式,从而实现社会资源优化配置。     

住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高,这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出,以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态,本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术,分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响,并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现,住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响,且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断,能够较好地反映市场转折点。     

创新住房保障模式 解决“夹心层”住房问题

为解决现有住房保障模式下存在的夹心层住房问题,本文从住房保障对象识别、保障方式选择、住房补贴标准确定、补贴金额计算等方面构建了一种新型的住房保障模式,该模式以货币补贴替代目前的实物补贴,实现了收入越高补贴越少的反向递减补贴效果,实现了住房保障的垂直公平,解决了现有模式下的夹心层问题,并进行了实证分析。     

Social security and retirement across the OECD

Employment to population ratios differ markedly across Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, especially for people aged over 55 years. In addition, social security features differ markedly across the OECD, particularly with respect to features such as generosity, entitlement ages, and implicit taxes on social security benefits. This study postulates that differences in social security features explain many differences in employment to population ratios at older ages. This conjecture is assessed quantitatively with a life cycle general equilibrium model of retirement. At ages 60–64 years, the correlation between the simulations of this study׳s model and observed data is 0.67. Generosity and implicit taxes are key features to explain the cross-country variation, whereas entitlement age is not.     

囤房现象形成的原因、影响与治理策略

研究目的:解释我国城市居民热衷囤房的原因,分析这一行为对宏观经济与居民家庭生活的影响,提出治理这一行为的策略。研究方法:基于住房特殊属性的归纳法和比较分析法。研究结果:在制度诱因和心理作用驱使下,居民将高储蓄率偏好转化为了囤房动机,使住房由一般消费品转为实物储蓄。由于住房的若干基本属性和衍生效应,长期大规模地囤房将造成资源浪费,阻碍了住房公平,削弱了青年家庭的购买能力。研究结论:迫切需要采取政策干预引导住房不再成为"房币"。     

基于住房支付能力的住房保障对象的界定

我国住房保障对象经历了从中低收入家庭向低收入家庭的演变.但对低收入家庭的不同理解导致政策实施中住房保障面期望值和实际值的巨大反差,如何界定住房保障对象成为一个难题.作为住房保障对象的低收入家庭,其界定依据是住房支付能力,而测度住房支付能力的关键是家庭月住房消费收入与目标住房所需月还款额.由此,构建基于收入增长的住房支付能力模型,并借助统计数据进行分析,测度我国不同收入阶层的住房支付能力,从而从消费者需求角度界定了我国住房保障对象.     

Long-run growth and welfare effects of public policies with distortionary taxation

In a one-sector growth model with infrastructure investment, we study the impact of fiscal policies on growth. The government collects taxes on labor income and profits. The government uses these revenues to purchase infrastructure investment, provide utility enhancing government services, and to provide transfer payments to the households. We show that the balanced growth rate is an increasing function of the percent of government revenues that goes to infrastructure. We find that the growth maximizing mix of taxes depends on the elasticity of substitution between inputs. In particular, with distortionary taxes, the growth maximizing tax rate on capital is higher the lower the elasticity of substitution between private physical capital and public capital. In addition, the growth maximizing size of the government is higher when the elasticity of substitution between public and private inputs is low. We also investigate welfare effects of other public expenditures as well. Depending on the elasticity of substitution in production, the welfare implications of different public policies can be substantial.     

住房调控政策问题：质疑、解读与建议

在“住房是商品”的片面认识导引下，“一次房改”后住房体制陷入“商保失调”的另一个极端状态，导致房困问题难以破解并影响宏观经济可持续发展。针对于此，“国字号”住房调控政策密集出台，但由于未从“住房两板块”结构出发分类加以调控，某些层面的调控效果不尽人意，也由此受到质疑。本文对此进行解读并给出有关政策建议。     

住房调控政策问题:质疑、解读与建议

在住房是商品的片面认识导引下,一次房改后住房体制陷入商保失调的另一个极端状态,导致房困问题难以破解并影响宏观经济可持续发展。针对于此,国字号住房调控政策密集出台,但由于未从住房两板块结构出发分类加以调控,某些层面的调控效果不尽人意,也由此受到质疑。本文对此进行解读并给出有关政策建议。     

基于“城房指数”的中国城市新建商品住房市场有效性研究

本文采用2006年1月至2009年8月我国10个大中城市“城房指数”数据,检验了新建商品住宅市场的有效性,结果显示市场无效是较为普遍的现象。进一步的研究说明,特定的市场参与者可以在无效市场中通过积极预测价格而获得更好的回报。但对一般投资者而言,由于目前调整持有房地产资产比例的投资行为将产生极高的交易费用,获得这一套利机会并不现实。如果未来我国资本市场上出现房地产衍生证券,该问题有可能得到解决,市场有效性也会得到提高。     

低收入群体的住房保障与信贷支持——基于住房过滤理论的分析

近年来,我国城市住房价格持续上升.保障低收入群体的基本居住权已成为城市建设和房地产业发展所面临的重大问题.目前,各部门和各地区针对住房保障问题,从供给和需求两方面制定了诸多的保障政策.但对于市场化条件下住房保障体系的内在运行机理研究则较为滞后.而国外的相关研究表明,住房过滤模型理论可以从微观角度时住房市场的结构性问题进行定量分析,并对住房价格进行生命周期全过程分析,较真实地反映住房市场特别是住房保障体系的运行机理.因此本文尝试从住房过滤模型的角度分析国内住房保障政策与住房信贷政策的实施效果,并结合该模型的适用条件与面临的现实障碍,探索住房保障措施及住房信贷制度的优化途径.     

中国城市经济适用房保障模式研究

针对我国经济适用房保障方式纷繁复杂的问题,本文提出了基于调控机制的经济适用房保障模式分类,及各类模式的适用性评价指标体系,并定量分析了全国35个重点城市的建议性保障模式。最后,将建议性模式与现行模式进行对比,提出了政策建议。     

Factor taxation and labor supply in a dynamic one-sector growth model

This paper studies a class of AK-type growth models with factor income taxes, public capital stock and labor–leisure trade offs. While a higher capital tax rate reduces economic growth in the short run, the long-term growth effect is ambiguous and remains ambiguous even if the level of tax rate is larger than the degree of government externality. A higher labor income tax rate has ambiguous growth effects both in the short and long runs. However, if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution for labor supply is sufficiently small, a higher labor tax rate always lowers economic growth in the long run, despite the existence of productive government taxation.     

限价商品住房政策基础理论研究

在分析限价商品住房这一新的住房供给类型提出背景的基础上,深入分析和界定其概念内涵,提出限价商品住房具有商品性、政策性、福利与社会保障性、阶段性和区域差异性特征,进而总结其实施中需要重点解决的定价方式、定价时点和价格水平测算模型及预防投机等问题,最后总结了其功能定位、实施考核标准和历史局限性.     

Housing, home production, and the equity- and value-premium puzzles

We ask if a standard representative agent model with a home-production sector can resolve the equity-premium or value-premium puzzles. In the model, agents value market (numeraire) consumption and a home consumption good that is produced from the stock of housing, home labor, and a labor-augmenting technology shock. We construct the unobserved quantity of the home consumption good by combining observed data on numeraire consumption, hours worked in the marketplace, and rents paid on housing with restrictions of the model. We test the first-order conditions of the model using GMM. The model is rejected by the data; it cannot explain either the historical equity-premium or the value-premium.     

公务员住房与城市公共住房政策的协调研究

在城市公共住房政策的大背景下研究和设计公务员住房政策对于后者发展的合理性和稳定性具有重要的意义。本文以公务员住房政策与城市公共住房政策的协调为研究对象,主要结论如下:城市公共住房政策面临的是租不起房和买不起房两种巨大的供需缺口并存,而公务员住房问题主要表现为购房的供需缺口。公务员住房政策应以实现内部的公平和全社会的公平为方向,改变完全按职级轮候职工住宅和发放住房补贴的做法,由直接提供转向按困难程度和职级结合的货币化补贴为主,对补贴后依然存在购房困难的公务员,才提供职工住宅和周转房。