The Impact of Multilateral Trade Liberalisation on Economic Development: Some Empirical Evidence

This article examines the impact of multilateral trade policy liberalisation on countries' levels of economic development, proxied by their real per capita income. The study is particularly relevant in the current context of growing rhetoric against international trade, which could fuel domestic protectionism and would likely undermine multilateral trade liberalisation. The analysis has been conducted on a panel data set of 155 countries, over non‐overlapping four‐yearly sub‐periods during 1995–2014. The empirical results suggest strong support for the view that multilateral trade liberalisation promotes economic development. Hence, the rise in unilateral protectionist trade measures around the world would likely endanger the prospects of further multilateral trade liberalisation and ultimately undermine countries' prospects of economic development.     

FROM THE CLASSICAL ECONOMISTS TO EMPIRICISTS: A REVIEW OF THE TERMS OF TRADE CONTROVERSY

Contrary to the classical position, the works of Prebisch and Singer in the middle of the last century launched the controversial hypothesis of a long-term decline in the terms of trade of primary products vis-á-vis manufactured goods and a corresponding decline in the terms of trade of developing countries vis-á-vis advanced ones. The present study traces the origin and evolution of the hypothesis and reviews the related statistical debate. It also reviews the theoretical support for the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. It is an exercise in the history of economic thought to trace how the controversies surrounding the terms of trade have evolved over time, specifically noting that, with the development of the field of econometrics, the central thesis of the argument got lost somewhere in the realm of hi-tech statistical debates.     

THE TRANSPORT SECTOR AND REGIONAL PRICE DIFFERENTIALS: A SPATIAL CGE MODEL FOR CHINESE PROVINCES

With regression formulas replaced by equilibrium conditions, a spatial CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model can substantially reduce data requirements. Detailed regional analyses are thus possible in countries where only limited regional statistics are available. Alhough regional price differentials play important roles in multiregional settings, transport does not receive much attention in existing models. This paper formulates a spatial CGE model that explicitly considers the transport sector and FOB/CIF prices. After describing the model, the performance of our model is evaluated by comparing the benchmark equilibrium for China with a survey-based interregional I-O table for 1987. The structure of Chinese economies is summarized using information obtained from the benchmark equilibrium computation. This includes regional and sectoral production distributions and price differentials. The equilibrium for 1997 facilitates discussion of changes in regional economic structures that China has experienced in the decade.     

EMBODIED CARBON IN TRADE: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This paper critically reviews the literature on embodied carbon in trade and evaluates our present empirical understanding of these flows. A careful comparison of quantitative results from this literature exposes significant inconsistencies. For instance, estimates for emission embodied in world trade in 2004 range between 4.4 Gt and 6.2 Gt CO2, the difference corresponding to around half of Europe's annual emissions. A few consistent themes do nevertheless emerge from the literature. Most importantly, emissions in trade constitute a large and growing share of global emissions. Uncertainty about country‐level embodied emissions remains large, however, which presents severe limitations for the practical application of embodied carbon principles in climate policy.     

WILLIAM HUSKISSON AND THE RHETORIC OF FREE TRADE

The British economy was wedded to protectionism at the turn of the nineteenth century, and the disruptive impact of the Napoleonic Wars served to bolster the case for duties on foreign imports. Notwithstanding this unpropitious climate, major strides were taken in the march towards freer trade in the 1820s. This article underlines William Huskisson's significance in this transition, ascribing particular importance to the manner in which he presented his economic reforms and, relatedly, his intellectual legacy in the decades after his death.     

BRIDGING TRADE THEORY AND LABOUR ECONOMETRICS: THE EFFECTS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION*

Abstract This paper surveys current theoretical and empirical research on international migration with a particular emphasis on the links between trade theory and labour empirics.     

PRICE EFFECTS OF SHOPPING HOURS REGULATION: EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY

This article investigates the price effects of shopping hours legislation in order to evaluate empirically the theoretical argument that such regulations protect consumers from price increases. The paper first provides a review of the literature; it then analyses the data prior to and following the liberalisation of German shopping hours regulations in 2006 and 2007 in order to estimate the effects of these changes. The article finds that liberalisation resulted in a fall in prices. This conclusion adds to a growing body of literature suggesting that shopping hours regulations entail significant economic costs.     

Spatial variations in the hidden enterprise culture: Some lessons from England

Despite the growing recognition that many businesses start by trading on a partially or wholly off-the-books basis, there has been little investigation of whether the prevalence and character of this hidden enterprise culture varies spatially. The aim of this paper is to start to fill that gap. Reporting the results of face-to-face interviews conducted in affluent and deprived urban and rural English localities with 91 early-stage entrepreneurs and 81 established self-employed, it is shown that in all localities wholly legitimate businesses are just the tip of the iceberg and that beneath the surface is a large hidden enterprise culture. However, the preponderance of early-stage entrepreneurs and the established self-employed to trade off-the-books is greater in some locality-types than others. Not only do early-stage entrepreneurs and the established self-employed more commonly trade off-the-books in deprived and rural localities, but they are also more likely to trade wholly off-the-books and therefore not be even recognized as existing by official data sources. The implication is that deprived and rural communities are more enterprising and entrepreneurial than is currently recognized and, consequently, that legitimizing this hidden enterprise culture could be an important means of promoting enterprise and economic development in such communities. The paper concludes by briefly reviewing how this might be achieved.     

ENGAGING THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO IMPROVE HEALTH IN AFRICA

In much of sub‐Saharan Africa, governments have demonstrably failed to deliver health services to the poor. In some places, governments and donor agencies have contracted with private companies and non‐profits to deliver health services, with considerable success. Ideologically driven Western NGOs oppose further moves towards private provision – seemingly preferring the poor to suffer substandard and erratic government provision than to obtain their healthcare through non‐state means.     

THE RISE AND DECLINE OF ECONOMIC POLICY AS AN AUTONOMOUS DISCIPLINE: A CRITICAL SURVEY

After Adam Smith's statement of market virtues, the process of gestation of economic policy as a rational set of rules for public agenda has been rather slow. Until not so long ago, economic policy as a discipline was often confined to prescribing practical rules intended to explain technical procedures of government intervention. Economic policy– as a coherent and to some extent autonomous discipline–only emerged in the late 1950s in Scandinavia, the Netherlands and Italy, when solid foundations indicating not only microeconomic but also macroeconomic market failures and a theory about the conditions for policy effectiveness and design were consistently developed. This paper intends to explain the reasons for the emergence of the discipline, the circumstances that favoured its diffusion, the reasons for its apparent setback and some factors that could facilitate its diffusion in the next years     

EVALUATING THE CRITICISMS OF FAIR TRADE1

This article critically examines some of the most common arguments used to support the view that Fair Trade should be rejected by consumers and businesses seeking to socialise their economic decisions. Overall the paper finds that the majority of such criticisms lack evidential rigour and sophisticated theory but instead rely on a high degree of rhetorical aptitude. While this does not naturally lead to the position that Fair Trade is necessarily beneficial, the conclusion reflects on a substantial amount of positive evidence to suggest that Fair Trade should not be abandoned by consumers or businesses.     

THE EURO'S TRADE EFFECT: A META‐ANALYSIS

Many studies have estimated the trade effect of the euro, but their results vary greatly. This meta‐analysis collects 3323 estimates of the euro effect along with 28 characteristics of estimation design from almost 60 studies and quantitatively examines the literature. The results show evidence of publication bias, but they also suggest that the bias decreases over time. After correcting for the bias, the meta‐analysis shows that the literature is consistent with an effect ranging between 2% and 6%. The results from Bayesian model averaging, which takes into account model uncertainty, show that the differences among estimates are systematically driven by data sources, data structure, control variables, and estimation techniques. The mean reported estimate of the euro's trade effect conditional on best‐practice approach is 3%, but is not statistically different from zero.     

PROCESSING TRADE BIASES THE MEASUREMENT OF VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION IN CHINA

Vertical specialization (VS) is often measured by the import contents of the exports, using an input–output (I–O) framework. Half of China's exports are processing exports, which largely depend on imported intermediate inputs and tie up upstream as well as downstream trade partners. Thus, one would expect to find strong VS for China. Using the ‘ordinary’ I–O tables, however, this is not the case. Because the production of processing exports is only a small part of total production, the average input structure in the I–O table hides the typical features of processing exports. Using adapted, tripartite I–O tables (for 2002 and 2007) in which the processing exports have been singled out, indeed reveals the expected strong VS in China.     

NEOCLASSICAL POLITICAL ECONOMY: AN APPLICATION TO TRADE POLICIES

Abstract. This paper starts with a review of the literature on 'neoclassical'political economy and then goes on to apply this perspective to the issue of trade liberalization. In this connection, the paper critically discusses various political economy models which have been advanced to explain patterns of trade policies in both developed and developing countries and assesses them in light of recent empirical evidence. The paper also makes a brief review of the empirical planning studies which estimate the gains from trade liberalization.     

TRADE PROTECTIONISM IN AUSTRALIA: ITS GROWTH AND DISMANTLING

Protection from import competition was a defining feature of the birth of the Australian federation in 1901. For the next 70 years, the extent of protection grew, and broadened from mainly tariffs to also involving import licencing after World War II. There was a one-off 25% across-the-board cut in tariffs in 1973 and some dismantling of agricultural subsidies, but that was followed by the re-imposition of import quotas for the most-protected manufactured goods. Then in the mid-1980s, a new reformist government began a long process of dismantling all protection as part of an overall economic reform program that also involved de-regulation, privatization and moving to a flexible exchange rate. The rewards included three decades of faster economic growth and an unprecedented rise in Australians’ living standards. This paper provides a history of economic thought on the pros and cons of protectionism for the small, distant, natural resource-rich Australian economy and a survey of the literature on the extent, effects and political economy reasons behind the growth of Australian protection and its eventual dismantling.     

A SURVEY OF THE ECONOMICS OF FAIR TRADE

Fair Trade has spread in developing countries as an initiative aimed at lifting poor smallholder farmers out of poverty by providing them with premium prices, availability of credit, and improved community development and social goods. Fair Trade is also viewed as a niche market for high value products in a context of globalization and trade liberalization policies that affect smallholder farmers in developing countries. This paper provides an overview of the potential effects of Fair Trade, both theoretical and empirical, on small‐scale producers in developing countries. Our review discusses the empirical evidence on prices and income, as well as the importance of limited market access and productivity. We discuss evidence on labor markets and human capital investments as well.     

THE REGIONAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This survey provides an updated review of the empirical literature on the regional effects of monetary policy in economic activity by means of undertaking a threefold perspective. First, the main methodological dimensions of this literature are examined while pinpointing those modelling or methodological traits that constitute a source of diverging estimates and thereby produce inconclusive evidence. Secondly, the estimates yielded by the literature are summarized by carrying out a cross‐study analysis of the results for each monetary union. By drawing on empirical regularities that are robust across studies, the conclusiveness of the results is assessed, while those monetary unions for which conclusive evidence is still lacking are also identified. Lastly, the sources of regional heterogeneity identified by these studies are reviewed in order to shed some light on the linkage between monetary policy and territorial heterogeneity. As a result of this threefold perspective, this survey delivers overall structured conclusions and updated policy‐relevant lessons. Moreover, various research gaps and emerging topics in the literature are also identified.     

THE DECISIONS OF THE SHADOW MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE AND MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE SINCE 2002: A REJOINDER

Koo, Paya and Peel make some very worthwhile points regarding the operation of the SMPC. Their analysis is interesting and helpful. However, the particular structure of the SMPC and the way it operates is, to some extent, determined by practicalities but also, more importantly, by the fact that it tries to operate as a discussion forum bringing together academics, bankers and financial experts rather than simply providing opinions on what the MPC should do.