Image and Reality in Economic Development

Since the financial meltdown of 2007, unemployment has consistently been above 6.0 percent. On one level, long-term unemployment can be accounted for by structural changes. But, on another level, the problem of long-term unemployment is really no more complicated than the absence of effective demand. This study looks at the demographics of the long-term unemployed for the years 2007-2010, and compares them to the years 1991-1994 to see what changes have occurred specifically among the long-term unemployed. The data shows that, in terms of structural changes, the 1991-1994 and 2007-2010 periods were not much different. Rather, the nature of this recession resulted in an altered composition of the long-term unemployed. Because long-term unemployment in this recession is a function of a particularly deep recession, a new approach is needed. Based on the data, this study argues for a wage policy that would allow for people to increase their effective demand for goods and services.     

Unemployment and Migration: Does Moving Help?

The migration behaviour of the unemployed in Finland is analysed in terms of the causal effect of moving on individual employment status. In 1994, 17 percent of the labour force was unemployed and the unemployment rate exhibited a very slow decline in 1994–1996. Over half of those who were unemployed at the end of 1994 were still unemployed two years later. The propensity to find a job is somewhat greater among migrants. However, the positive effect of moving diminishes once other personal characteristics are accounted for. Moreover, when controlling for endogenous migrant selectivity, an insignificant or even negative effect on employment status emerges. This indicates that the relatively better "quality" of the migrants (e.g. age, education, human capital and unobserved ability), rather than the act of moving itself, causes an improvement in re–employability. Hence, migration alone may not be a very effective mechanism for alleviating individual unemployment.
JEL classification : J 61; J 64     

Is a Risk Index Approach to Unemployment Possible?

This paper examines the ways that productivity, personal characteristics such as birthplace and gender, structural factors and labour market history impact on the distribution of the burden of unemployment. It is shown that labour market history is a major explanator of unemployment outcomes in the Australian labour market. The results from the empirical analyses of unemployment outcomes are used to identify individuals at risk of being unemployed. When individuals classified as at risk of being unemployed are followed through time, it is found that they spend considerable time looking for work and have short working spells. This suggests a risk index approach may have considerable merit as a way of identifying the relative difficulty individuals experience in the labour market.     

生育指标和婚姻匹配*

本文通过研究中国计划生育政策改革来检验贝克尔（Becker）关于婚姻的经济学理论。中国从20世纪80年代起实行“一胎化”政策,但随后逐渐允许夫妻均为独生子女的家庭生育第二胎,即“双独二胎”政策。由于“双独二胎”实施前不同省份“一胎化”政策的执行力度不同,所以放开“双独二胎”在不同省份间的政策效果也不同。笔者利用政策实施时间前后和省份间政策力度的差异,采用二重差分的实证设计进行分析,发现“双独二胎”政策增加了独生子女之间的匹配,减少了独生子女和非独生子女的“混合匹配”。笔者建立搜寻—匹配模型对“双独二胎”政策如何影响婚姻市场均衡进行分析。二重差分的实证分析得到的证据与模型的推论相一致,实证结果在一系列检验中保持稳健。     

Wants and Working Wives: Household Demand and Saving in Australia*

Household survey data are used to compare the consumption and savings behaviour of families in which both husband and wife work with the behaviour when only the husband is employed. Other household characteristics allowed for are age, socio-economic class and family size. A linear systems model is used and attention is focused on alternative methods of estimating the parameters of the Klein-Rubin utility function. The preferred method involves the use of information from time-series studies in estimating the ‘subsistence’ parameters.     

THE VALUE OF HOUSEHOLD SERVICES: A SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES*

This paper surveys the various estimates that have been made of the value of household services, summarizing the methods used and comparing the statistical results. It concludes that there is wide variability in the results obtained, much of which can be attributed to the differing methods. The highest values are obtained with methods based upon the opportunity cost of women in paid employment, lower with methods based upon the cost of a single housekeeper, and lowest with methods based upon pricing individual services performed. On the basis of time use studies, three factors are found to affect very strongly the value of services performed: family size, wife's market-work status, and age of youngest child. The value of total household services should include not only the wife's contribution, but also that of the husband and children, which may amount to as much as a third of the total. The increasing burden of more children, however, appears to fall mainly on the wife, with some relief from older children; the amount of time spent by husbands appears relatively invariant to number of children or work status of the wife.     

Work incentive and other effects of social assistance and unemployment benefit policy in the Czech Republic

In this paper we provide an account of most of the passive labor market policies (unemployment compensation, social assistance, state social support and the pension system) in the Czech Republic during the 1990–1996 period. The eligibility requirements and benefit levels are described in great detail. Using Labor Force Survey data, we compare the characteristics of unemployed people receiving unemployment benefits with those receiving social assistance and those not receiving any benefits and we find significant differences in their characteristics. Finally, we provide an analysis of the work disincentive effects of the unemployment and social assistance benefits by comparing these benefits to market wages and by analyzing the effect of being in the system on the duration of unemployment of two cohorts of unemployed in 1994 and 1995. We find that social assistance benefits are fairly generous for low income families with more children, individuals with these characteristics have a higher probability of receiving social assistance and they tend to stay unemployed longer than those people with relatively fewer dependants. We conclude that the social assistance scheme seems to be having some disincentive effects for at least one group in the population.     

What is unemployment in Europe? Concepts and measurement in the European community household panel

The purpose in this article is to evaluate the consistency between two measures of unemployment in a cross-country context. We use the European Community Household Panel to identify unemployment at an individual level based as well on the ILO criteria for being classified as unemployed as on the individual respondent reporting to be unemployed. This opens a unique opportunity to compare unemployment measured in two different ways based on a cross European Union panel study covering the years 1994 to 2001. The two main questions addressed in this article are to which extent the two unemployment measures differ and whether transition rates out of unemployment depend on which concept we use. Both questions are answered in the affirmative. The overall conclusion is that it is important, especially in some of the EU countries, to include both measures of unemployment as guidelines and indicators for policy.     

Unemployment duration and workers' wage aspirations in Spain

This paper examines unemployed workers' declared willingness to work for wages lower than the one adequate for their qualification. We analyze which personal and economic characteristics determine this willingness and how it changes along the individuals' unemployment spells. The main results are: (i) Young workers, less educated and those living in regions or times of high unemployment are more willing to accept reduced wages while married women with a working husband are much less willing to do so; (ii) Once the individual fixed effect is controlled for, the willingness to work for reduced wages increases with the duration of unemployment; (iii) Not having access to unemployment benefits increases the probability that initially unwilling workers become willing to accept reduced wages.     

Differential response by husbands and wives regarding contraceptive practice

It has been generally accepted that information on contraceptive usage obtained from the female partner of a couple is the same as would be obtained from the male partner. It has therefore not been customary to interview both husband and wife regarding contraceptive usage. However, an examination of surveys conducted in India, in which both partners of the couple were respondents, indicates a differential pattern of response with women typically underreporting usage as compared to men. The discrepancy between men and women in reporting birth control usage can be partly attributed to a culturally dictated reticence on the part of women in discussing sexual function. Data from Africa show the situation to be reversed, with greater underreporting being typical of the male partner. Overall, men were found to underreport the incidence of female methods of contraception, while women underreported male contraceptive methods. Based on the evidence examined, it is concluded that underreporting of contraceptive usage may be a significant problem, having implications for the choice of methodology and the assumptions on which family planning programs are based.     

A SPECIFICATION SEPARATING FAMILY SIZE AND INDIVIDUAL AGE EFFECTS ON SUBJECTIVE EQUIVALENCE SCALES: A NOTE

This paper analyses the Kapteyn and Van Praag method of estimating equivalence scales with respect to the way family size and age composition are incorporated into the scales according to rank and age of each family member. It becomes evident that the Kapteyn/Van Praag procedure fails to distinguish between household size and individual age effects with the result that personal weights can not be used for recomposition of household types other than wife and husband families, nor can they be interpreted as showing real age dependence of personal income equivalence. For these reasons another specification of the general approach, separating both effects, is outlined. This specification distinguishes between several consumption classes within each household. Within each class, economies of scale are attached to similar individuals while differences in individual need are obtained by comparing individuals with the same rank in the different classes.     

贵州农村不同类型家庭外出务工对家庭收入和生活的影响

分析贵州不同类型家庭外出务工对家庭的影响,发现夫妻共同外出务工家庭多以进工厂的方式外出打工,他们收入要高于户主单独外出务工家庭收入,而夫妻共同外出打工对留守老人与儿童的负面影响要大于户主单独外出务工的家庭。     

The Nature of Unemployment among Young Men in Urban Ethiopia

This paper investigates the nature of unemployment among young men in urban Ethiopia and finds that it is concentrated among relatively well‐educated first‐time job seekers who aspire to a public sector job and spend on average close to four years in unemployment. This is consistent with a segmented labor market model where youngsters queue in unemployment for a good job, as confirmed by an empirical test of the theoretical prediction. We observe a negative (causal) relationship between household welfare and both the incidence and duration of unemployment, indicating that unemployment is concentrated among the relatively worse off urban households, which from a national perspective represent the middle classes, and find suggestive evidence that part of this effect is due to malnutrition during childhood. Job search through social networks is only effective after one has become unemployed, suggesting that networks provide insurance only after exposure to the risk.     

Optimal Workfare with Voluntary and Involuntary Unemployment*

This paper addresses the welfare implications of introducing workfare into unemployment benefit policy. We consider a population composed of employed and unemployed workers and of individuals who do not seek employment. Job search behavior is unobservable, which means that voluntarily unemployed individuals can claim unemployment insurance (UI) benefits intended for unemployed workers. As a consequence, pecuniary benefit schemes underinsure workers against unemployment. We show that requiring unproductive activities (workfare) in exchange for UI benefits may generate a Pareto improvement by facilitating better unemployment insurance for workers, and we characterize the situations where this is the case.     

Effects of growing wage disparities and changing family composition on the U.S. income distribution

U.S. income inequality soared after 1979. The present paper estimates the contribution of increased earnings inequality to the surge in overall income inequality between 1979 and 1996. The direct contribution of increased earnings inequality is surprisingly modest. Even if male and female earnings inequality had remained unchanged at their 1979 levels, about two thirds of the observed increase in overall U.S. inequality would have occurred. Other factors contributing to higher overall inequality include the growing correlation of husband and wife earned incomes and the increasing percentage of Americans who live in single-adult families, families that typically have much more unequal incomes than husband–wife families.     

Couple's literacy level and acceptance of family planning methods: Lorenz curve analysis

The authors study the acceptance of family planning methods according to the level of couple's literacy in 14 states in India during 1986-87, using the Lorenz curve. The Gini Concentration Ratio and Index of Dissimilarity were calculated by level of couple's literacy for vasectomy, tubectomy, IUD, and all method combined. Firstly, analysis found literates to have accepted vasectomy and IUD more than tubectomy. Secondly, among the 3 methods, a high Gini Concentration Ratio was found for vasectomy when the wife was literate. Moreover, when the wife was literate, the Gini Concentration Ratio of IUD acceptance was higher than the acceptance of IUD by the wife whose husband was literate. Thirdly, the same trend was observed when the husband was illiterate. It is therefore clear that the level of a woman's literacy is a key factor in securing the acceptance of male or female methods of family planning. Planners should therefore concentrate on literacy programs for females independently of their age. Increasing the level of female literacy may ultimately help improve the understanding of family planning methods, while these women may also motivate their husbands to undergo vasectomy which will ultimately foster the success of the family planning program.     

Unemployment burden and its distribution: Theory and evidence from India

We develop a measure of unemployment that takes into account both the duration and intensity of unemployment. This measure satisfies several desirable properties, including distribution sensitivity, which deals with differences among the unemployed. It is particularly suited to developing countries because individuals in these countries display considerable variation in labor force participation, unemployment duration, and unemployment intensity. It can also be decomposed into mean and variance components and contributions to unemployment by various subgroups of the population. We use this measure and data from National Sample Surveys on employment and unemployment to understand unemployment in India during the period 1993 to 2012. We show that unemployment has generally fallen, although the distribution of unemployment has worsened. Moreover, unemployment is driven to a greater extent by higher educated groups; the unemployment among these groups is also fairly substantial. We explain these findings and suggest some policies.     

Love,money, and parental goods: Does parental matchmaking matter?

While parental matchmaking has been widespread throughout history and across countries, we know little about the relationship between parental matchmaking and marriage outcomes. Does parental involvement in matchmaking help ensure their needs are better taken care of by married children? This paper finds supportive evidence using a survey of Chinese couples. In particular, parental involvement in matchmaking is associated with having a more submissive wife, a greater number of children, a higher likelihood of having any male children, and a stronger belief of the husband in providing old age support to his parents. These benefits, however, are achieved at the cost of less marital harmony within the couple and lower market income of the wife. The results render support to and extend the findings of (Becker et al., 2015) where parents meddle with children’s preferences to ensure their commitment to providing parental goods such as old age support.     

Family Income and Wealth,Youth Unemployment and Active Labour Market Policies

This paper studies some features of unemployment in Italy using cross section individual micro data. Since unemployment is particularly harsh with respect to youths, interest is focused on 15-29-year-old youngsters. The analysis is carried out using standard logit models and the results show that personal and family characteristics play an essential role in shaping youth activity and unemployment rates of short and long duration, together with product market conditions and labour market features. In particular, the income effect seems relevant for participation decisions, while the family wealth helps in reducing youth unemployment. Various policy instruments might be able to reduce youth unemployment, especially if these instruments are targeted through means-testing on family income and wealth and through a proper distinction between the first job seekers and the strictly unemployed.     

A new look at the UI effect on transitions from unemployment into wage employment in Spain: the limited duration of the UI benefits entitlement

This article is a new look at the study of the unemployment insurance effect on the transition probability from unemployment into wage employment in Spain. It is found that individuals increase their search effort and reduce their reservation wage as the unemployment insurance benefit entitlement exhaustion approaches, and their exit rate equals that of the unemployed who never got benefits from the exhaustion moment. Financial constraints are not important in Spain. Business cycle affects more to long-term unemployed. And, finally, it is found that the probability of being offered a vacancy decreases with time spent in unemployment, having allowed for unobservable heterogeneity.