The city summit: The lessons of Istanbul

Global summits have been frequent over the past four years — on environment and development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992; on population and development in Cairo in 1994; on social development in Copenhagen in 1995; and on women in Beijing in 1995. The last of this series was the United Nations Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat II) which took place in Istanbul in June 1996. After reminding us of the speed of urbanization and the enormous stakes involved in the development of megalopolises, the author gives his account of this ‘summit on cities’ and seven lessons he learned from it.     

Intangibles: The soft side of innovation

The ‘soft side’ of the innovation process is easily ignored. Nonetheless it is crucial in understanding the complexity of innovation processes and competitiveness in a knowledge-based, de-materialized economy. This article focuses on intangible investments as a component of this soft side of innovation practice. First, we will introduce and discuss the concept and meaning of intangible investments. Next, we will illustrate the growing significance of intangibles by considering examples from five industries (producing clothes and fashion, flowers, beer, publishing and financial services). Synthesizing the results from these five cases, we will link the role of intangible investments with service functions in innovation practice. Finally, we will discuss some emerging implications for both future business strategy and policy-making.     

The futures of democracy in Pakistan: A liberal perspective

Due to the domination of state institutions over political institutions, Pakistan has not experienced a steady consolidation of democracy over its fifty year history. This is manifest in the lack of roots of constitutionalism, the absence of fully autonomous judiciary, a well developed party system and regularly held fair elections. Recent political developments such as the gradual withdrawal of state institutions particularly the military from the political arena, greater assertiveness of the judiciary, parliaments' curtailment of president powers and rising political consciousness among the people have brightened the chances of survival of democracy in the country. Its further consolidation will depend on the capacity of elected leaders to address the serious problems of ethnic and religious dissensions, financial vulnerability, heavy indebtedness, skyrocketing inflation and serious economic disparities.     

The zeno event: Science and the acceleration of history

It is commonly accepted that the scientific and technological revolution constantly increases its speed. There are a variety of indicators of this process, and an interesting, perhaps important, question is whether they tend to a common conclusion about the future of our society. In this study, we examine several such indicators, relating to both short- and long-term processes. We find that they all agree, predicting a sort of ‘Zeno event’ around the middle of the next century. This current investigation serves as a signal to those who wish to study the possibility of such a limit-event; its time-series can be tested again in the near future. If they are corroborated, this approach can serve as a well-validated warning, so that we may not merely study the world of the future but also transform it.     

The multi-national corporations: Considerations for a scenario

Although multi-national corporations have been one of the main customers for future-oriented activities such as technological forecasting, precious little attention has been paid to their development either in the work of the so-called establishment futurists or in the work of their more ‘radical’ colleagues. It is argued that these companies will be increasingly free of control at the international level though under greater scrutiny at the national level. It is likely that they will become increasingly intertwined with both national and international governing bodies, and be seen as arms of these governing bodies rather than as the traditional profit-maximising organisations.     

The tyranny of light: The temptations and the paradoxes of the information society

A distinguishing feature of late modern societies is the significant extent to which they are dependent on knowledge for their functioning. Contrary to how knowledge was viewed in pre-modern societies, knowledge now tends to be understood as information, that is as consisting of objectified, commodified, abstract, decontextualized representations. The overabundance of information in late modernity makes the information society full of temptations. It tempts us into thinking that knowledge-as-information is objective and exists independently of human beings; that everything can be reduced into information; and that generating ever more amounts of information will increase the transparency of society and, thus, lead to the rational management of social problems. However, as argued in this paper, the information society is riddled with paradoxes that prevent it from satisfying the temptations it creates. More information may lead to less understanding; more information may undermine trust; and more information may make society less rationally governable. These claims are illustrated with examples from the UK and the USA.     

Sri Lanka: Futures beyond conflict

Not so long ago, Sri Lanka was stereotypically portrayed as a stable, model democracy inhabited by friendly and fun-loving natives; a place in the sun reserved for enjoyment; an oasis in the so called (poverty and disease ridden) ‘Third World’; a virtual paradise for tourists and natives alike. In reality, Sri Lanka has seen the burgeoning of revolutionary struggles and nationalist fervour, from putschist attempts to capture state power to liberation and self-determination. The author argues that it is the model of parliamentary democracy that is largely responsible for the ethnic violence and bloodshed on this island. It ensured the rise of the post-colonial political élite who then ensured that all the hegemonic tendencies of colonialism were preserved and entrenched. It is imperative for shaping viable futures for Sri Lanka that a new ethics and moral code of good governance—which includes transparency in government and politics—is initiated.     

Evolutionary analogies and sustainability: Putting a human face on survival

In recent years, analogies taken from the natural world, and from evolutionary theory in particular, have been increasingly applied to problems outside the field of biology. The growing interest in issues of sustainability has not escaped this trend and the application of evolutionary analogies to issues of sustainability is discussed and its benefits outlined. Furthermore, a conceptual tool for addressing issues of sustainability within an evolutionary framework is presented and its main features investigated. There are, however, a number of reasons for caution when adopting any analogy for the purposes of theory development. These points of circumspection are investigated and a number of suggestions are made for enriching the framework to facilitate the application of evolutionary analogies to human-centred and other non-biological systems. This is achieved by recognizing the unique characteristics of human beings and interpreting the component factors of evolutionary theory so as to account for the fundamental differences between humans and other species.     

Diffusion with distinction: The diffusion of household durables in the UK

Futures researchers have long been interested in studies that investigate the diffusion of innovations among consumers. Often this is simply as a basis for extrapolating future trends in access to technologies. But also this literature has been particularly useful in providing frameworks for understanding the processes by which new commodities come into circulation and spread across populations of adopters. In this paper we seek to deepen the analysis. We argue that many studies have oversimplified the issues by treating populations of potential adopters as being homogeneous. This, we believe, is inadequate for understanding the diffusion of products in consumer markets. Drawing on debates from cultural studies and the sociology of consumption, as well as emerging theories from evolutionary economics, and analysing household survey data, we show that there are discernible social groups that adopt products at different rates. These differential rates of adoption are attributable to the existence of groups with different tastes, and not simply a question of different income groups.     

Prospects for external sources of vehicle propulsion: Results of a Delphi study

This article presents the outcome of a Delphi study carried out between October 1995 and February 1996. The subject of the study is external sources of vehicle propulsion, and its possible role in achieving more sustainable modes of transportation. The Delphi study concludes that external propulsion technologies are unlikely to be the substitute for internal combustion engines. External sources of power or energy are potentially a means of saving energy, because the weight of vehicles can be reduced and energy can be produced on a large scale thus boosting efficiency. However, there is no practical system by which these advantages can be realized without putting an unacceptable strain on the quality of the transport system. The costs would be huge; there would be considerable energy losses; safety problems could arise; and the flexibility of the users is limited. Electric vehicles could, however, become important. Pantographs and quick charging techniques could become important technologies if battery technology will not improve considerably.     

The fragmented futures of human rights and democracy: A review of recent literature

A wide spectrum of recent futures-oriented, English-language literature on human rights and democracy is surveyed. Human rights and democracy are seldom mentioned together, and the literature on each of these two important concerns is profoundly fragmented. An appreciative framework for integrative thinking is created here. The future of both human rights and democracy is found to be profoundly ambiguous, with many threats and opportunitities. Looking at all of them through a broad overview could hasten the progress of democracy and human rights, or retard decay.     

Issues and challenges in the evolution of multimedia: The case of the newspaper

This article examines the key issues facing the emergence of multimedia in the newspaper industry. It looks at the underpinning forces coming from both the newspaper industry and the relentless advance in information and communication technologies. The fast growth in the number of newspapers in the Internet is then examined and the major business issues and dilemmas are discussed in detail. The rise of a variety of alliances bears witness to the need to collaborate to reduce the uncertainty of the multimedia newspaper (ad-)ventures.     

The future begins today: Nature as teacher in environmental adult popular education

The future begins today is a review of the importance and role of learning, specifically environmental adult and popular education, in working with communities and community-based organizations on planning, organizing and revisioning life from an ecological perspective. The authors report on their work based at the Transformative Learning Centre in Toronto, Canada which explores the role of nature as both teacher and site of learning. Theoretical and practical illustrations are included.All education, up to our present moment, has never countenanced the possibility of planetary destruction from the destruction of the life-support system. This viability of planetary existence was never an issue for educators because it was not, until now, part of our cultural understanding. (Hall and O'Sullivan, Transformative Learning: Contexts and Practices, 1994)The human enterprise cannot be separated from the natural world even in our minds because no such separation exists in nature.(Wackernagel and Rees, Our Ecological Footprint, 1995).     

Measurement of formal harmonization progress:: The IASC experience

As a result of globalization, the accounting profession has become increasingly aware of the need to establish a single set of accounting standards that would be valid in the international arena. Recent events highlight the timeliness of this study, which provides an empirical measurement of International Accounting Standards Committee (IASC) progress throughout its harmonization history. The purpose of this article is twofold: first, a new measure of the advances achieved through formal harmonization and second, to use this methodology to evaluate the IASC achievements all through its standard-setting activity. Our results prove that the IASC has made great progress in regard to the level of harmony achieved through the accounting standards it has issued or revised. Nevertheless, we conclude that the IASC needs to continue working towards greater formal harmonization. Our study also indicates research directions that could advance the study of formal harmonization. This specific area of research has generally been disregarded in the existing literature, a trend we would like to see reversed, considering that its application can provide valuable insight for standard-setting processes, especially now that the accounting community is so conscious of the need to advance the harmonization process.     

The four and five year old's understanding of the future: A preliminary study

A significant imbalance exists in the lack of research on young children's understandings of the future. Recent studies highlight the difficulties experienced by young people in coming to terms with the future, which is generally viewed with trepidation and ambivalence by children as young as ten years of age. While there is a growing body of research in this area, there has been very little undertaken on how younger children think about these issues. To focus our attention on younger children's understandings and attitudes in this area would improve our understanding on the development of young children's thinking on time and the future and assist us to implement strategies to counteract the negativity and pessimism experienced at later years.     

Futures studies: From individual to social capacity

Futures study is not yet well established at the social level. Given the unstable conditions of the late 20th century, and the challenging outlook of the early 21st, this is a serious oversight. The article considers how futures studies can be progressively developed through five distinct layers, or levels. First is the natural capacity of the human brain/mind system to envisage a range of futures. Second, is the clarifying, enlivening and motivating role of futures concepts and ideas. Third are analytic gains provided by futures tools and methods. Fourth are a range of practical and intellectual applications, or contexts. When each of these levels functions in a coordinated way, grounds for the emergence of futures studies at the social level can clearly be seen. The article concludes with a brief summary of a preferred future which would arguably be within reach if futures studies were to progress along such a path from individual to social capacity.     

Learning about the future: From the learner's perspective

The path for a hopeful future depends on learning, a process that is a complex symphony of human experience. It is a process that demands deep questioning and critique of our world-views. It is a process that requires that we open ourselves to and effectively cope with a myriad of emotions. It is a process that compels us to engage in soul-searching as we explore our human responsibilities and commitments, connect with the meaning and purpose of our very existence and choose paths of action based on those reflections. Learning to care for future generations and the world they will inherit is a unique and holistic process. Our ability to support this form of learning begins with an understanding of the human experience of learning, from the perspective of learners.