从FCF看中国外贸均衡发展

全球经济危机迫使中国经济降低了对国外市场的依赖程度。制造业也同样必须适应国际需求的变化。外国子公司的加工出口容易受到西方需求放缓的影响,而中国的出口企业却在转型进入活跃的新兴市场中处于有利地位。同时,中国的一般进口正日益增长。亚洲国家扩大了其国内市场的份额,欧洲国家也留有强势地位,而北美国家却失去了自己的市场。中国成为了区域经济增长的动力。在中国的进口及工业生产中,外资企业起到了越来越重要的作用。中国对外国直接投资的政策与确定外国伙伴进入其国内市场的汇率政策至少是同等重要的。     

To lead or to wait? An application to internationalization strategies under demand uncertainty

We examine the exports versus foreign direct investment (FDI) decision under demand uncertainty for an asymmetric cost duopoly. One of the firms can lead entry before demand realization or retain flexibility enjoying an informational advantage. When the time value of information is small and for sufficiently low investment costs, follow‐the‐leader behavior in FDI arises. Relatively high investment (fixed) costs result in follow‐the‐leader exporting behavior. When the time value of information becomes significant, the potential leader will opt for a wait‐and‐see strategy. For intermediate values of investment costs, the efficient firm invests, while the rival chooses to export.     

Firm Productivity and the Foreign‐Market Entry Decision

We use Japanese firm‐level data to examine how a firm’s productivity affects its foreign‐market entry strategy. The firm faces a choice between exporting and foreign direct investment (FDI). In the case of FDI, the firm has two options: greenfield investment or acquisition of an existing plant (M&A). If it selects greenfield investment, it has two ownership choices: whole ownership or a joint venture with a local company. Controlling for industry‐ and country‐specific characteristics, we find that the more productive a firm is, the more likely it is to choose FDI rather than exporting and greenfield investment rather than M&A.     

Political events and the foreign direct investment decision: An empirical examination

This study investigates the impact of political events on US manufacturing direct investment in Latin America. The relationship between foreign direct investment and political events (and economic factors) is examined through regression analysis of pooled time-series (21 years) and cross-sectional (8 countries) data. In contrast to previous studies using an econometric approach, this study finds that political events do affect direct investment decisions. Specifically, both intra-nation and inter-nation conflict and co-operation have an impact on US direct investment decisions concerning Latin American countries. In addition, the host country's market size and market growth affect these decisions by US multinational firms.     

Market servicing by multinational manufacturing firms: Exporting versus foreign production

The foreign market servicing behaviour of multinational manufacturing firms evolves over time as a result of the firms' reaction to internal and external pressures. The interplay of immobile ‘location factors’ with internal ‘ownership factors’ under the control of individual enterprises exercises a powerful influence on the choice between exporting and foreign investment. Plant economies of scale encourage exporting, whilst firm level economies of scale, such as the internalization of the fruits of research, may predispose the firm towards foreign investment. Socio-political and cultural elements arising particularly from the nationality of ownership of the firm also influence market servicing strategy.     

外商直接投资在中国的空间外溢效应研究

本文的研究结果发现,除了国外直接投资对大型企业不存在空间外溢比邻优势外,国外直接投资对中、小型企业以及港澳台地区直接投资对所有规模的企业均存在一定的空间外溢比邻优势;外商直接投资拉大了东西部企业生产率的差距,其中港澳台地区直接投资对东西部大型企业的生产率外溢差异远大于国外直接投资,港澳台地区直接投资分布相对集中于东部以及其对大型企业表现出的比邻优势使其外溢效应出现明显的区域差异,这是导致东西部生产率差异的主要因素;外商直接投资对不同规模的企业具有不同的外溢效应,加剧了我国大、小企业之间的竞争地位差异。     

MIND THE GAP: UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE NEW EU REGIONS

Abstract.  The paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on regional unemployment during transition in Central and Eastern Europe. The focus is on optimal speed of transition (OST) models and on comparison of them with the neo-classical tradition. In the typical neo-classical models, spatial differences essentially arise as a consequence of supply side constraints and institutional rigidities. Slow-growth, high-unemployment regions are those with backward economic structures and constraints on factors mobility contribute to making differences persistent. However, such explanations leave the question unanswered of how unemployment differences arise in the first place. Economic transition provides an excellent testing ground to answer this question. Pre-figuring an empirical law, the OST literature finds that the high degree of labour turnover of high unemployment regions is associated with a high rate of industrial restructuring and, consequently, that low unemployment may be achieved by implementing transition more gradually. Moreover, international trade, foreign direct investment and various agglomeration factors help explain the success of capital cities compared to peripheral towns and rural areas in achieving low unemployment. The evidence of the empirical literature on supply side factors suggests that wage flexibility in Central and Eastern Europe is not lower than in other EU countries, while labour mobility seems to reinforce rather than change the spatial pattern of unemployment.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND REGIONAL PRODUCTIVITY SPILLOVERS IN US MANUFACTURING

This research examines how inward foreign direct investment (FDI) impacts manufacturing productivity in select industries across US regions. Although some evidence has documented the phenomenon of knowledge spillovers to national economies, little is known about how the regional penetration of foreign investment affects the productivity performance of local firms. The analysis proceeds in a novel fashion by adjusting aggregate data on industry operating statistics to "net out" the contaminating influence of foreign firms producing in each of the host regional economies. A cross section of state-by-industry observations is used to estimate labor productivity, controlling for FDI penetration both by region and by industry. In general, the results demonstrate that domestic firms do not reap productivity gains as a result of a larger presence of foreign affiliates. Related research efforts, although not specifically concerned with the regional transmission of FDI spillovers, offer corroborative support for these findings.     

Do Firms Increase Productivity in Order to Become Exporters?*

Recent studies find that exporters are more productive than non‐exporters and that entry into exporting does not increase firms’ productivity. Thus, firms self‐select into foreign markets. This paper examines productivity before entry into exporting. Using Chilean plant‐level data, we find that productivity and investment increase before plants begin to export. Moreover, productivity of entrants to exporting, but not that of non‐exporters and exporters, increases in response to increases in foreign income, before entry but not after that. The results suggest that the productivity advantage of future exporters may be the result of firms increasing their productivity in order to export.     

Global Engagement and Returns Volatility

This paper finds that a greater reliance on foreign market sales increases the volatility of firms’ stock returns, using high‐frequency data for publicly listed Japanese manufacturing firms over the period 2000–10. The two margins of global engagement we consider, namely, exports and sales via foreign affiliates (horizontal foreign direct investment), have both a positive and economically significant effect on firm‐level volatility. We find, however, that increasing the intensity of sales through foreign affiliates has a stronger effect on volatility than a similar change in export intensity. We also uncover evidence consistent with the notion that firms’ need to use external finance to cover the substantial costs involved in reaching foreign consumers can be an important channel through which firms’ participation in international markets increases their exposure to economic uncertainty.     

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions with heterogeneous firms: Technology vs. market motives

The most common form of foreign direct investment (FDI) is cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A). A common explanation for M&A activity identified in the industrial organization literature is that firms seek technological expertise. However, this has not been examined in the FDI literature. In this paper, I develop and estimate a model of cross-border M&A and focus on the technology seeking explanation. In particular, I develop a general equilibrium model of exporting, greenfield FDI, technology-seeking cross-border M&A, and market-seeking cross-border M&A with heterogeneous firms. The model predicts that firms from a larger country are more likely to acquire in a smaller country when M&A activity is driven by a technology-seeking motive, but the opposite is true when it is driven by a market-seeking motive. Using detailed data on worldwide M&A activity from 1985 to 2007, I find empirical evidence that cross-border M&A activity exhibits behavior consistent with this prediction.     

Outward FDI from Central and Eastern European Countries

In Central and Eastern Europe, outward foreign direct investment (FDI) has not yet become as a prominent factor in the regions reintegration into the world economy as trade liberalisation used to be in the early 1990s or inward foreign direct investment is currently. In the terminology of the investment–development path, with the notable exception of the Russian Federation, the region is in stage 2, whereby inward flows are still growing faster than outward flows. This article argues that a combination of the latecomer status of the regions transnational corporations and the transition shock can explain most of that laggard situation. It hypothesises that the enlargement of the European Union (EU) would give a major push to the outward foreign direct investment flows of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), on condition that adequate government policies to promote those investments are put in place. The impact on the investment–development path, however, is uncertain, because accession to the EU is often accompanied by a surge in foreign direct investment inflows, too. Finally, the article also looks at the options available to deal with the specific problems of the Russian Federation in relation to capital flight, including ways of regularisation and potential return to the home economy.     

The currency denomination of external European Union imports after European Union expansion

Using a multiple market model I examine the impact of euro expansion on the optimal currency denomination of external EU imports. Results suggest euro invoicing will increase more in the EU-expansion country than in the original EU. Exporting firms from dollar bloc countries (the U.S. or countries with fixed exchange rates with the dollar) are more likely to invoice in the euro if price discrimination is already optimal. Firms from outside the dollar bloc are more likely to use the euro when the original EU market is relatively large or transaction costs of exchanging the euro are relatively small.     

Do MNCs spur financial markets in corrupt host countries?

This study investigates how MNCs can sway the growth of financial markets in the developing countries with prevalent political corruption. Using annual data of panel of 22 developing countries and applying dynamic generalized method of moment (GMM) technique, we find foreign firms can spur financial markets in the developing countries through direct investment. Furthermore, our results indicate the stimulus effect of foreign investment on financial development is stronger in the more corrupt countries.     

Industry and Regional Patterns in Sequential Foreign Market Entry

This study empirically investigates industry and region of origin patterns of sequential foreign market entry by multinational corporations (MNCs) at the line of business level. We use event history analysis to study sequential foreign direct investment in the United States by European and Japanese firms in the chemical and electronics industries from 1975 to 1992. Results show that European firms as well as Japanese firms first enter in their largest and strongest lines of business, and over time extend their positions by entering in lines of business that are smaller and less strong. As for industry effects, sequential entry is observed more strongly among electronics firms than among chemical firms, reflecting differences in the speed and extent of globalization of these two industries. Our findings confirm that foreign market entry is a sequential process, and show that industry effects are more important than region of origin effects.     

Foreign Direct Investment Strategies and Firms' Capabilities

This paper presents a simple model to analyze the effect of geographically localized spillovers on the internationalization decision of firms. It is shown that, once spatially bounded externalities are taken into account, the standard predictions on the nature and direction of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows may be reversed. We highlight three effects. First, an FDI-en-hancing effect: the presence of spillovers increases the profitability of the FDI strategy when the competitive gap between firms is narrow. Second, a dissipation effect: firms may refrain from investing abroad for fear of diffusion of their firm-specific assets. Third, a sourcing effect: the presence of spillovers may induce a firm to invest abroad, even in the absence of exporting costs.     

Should we worry about the decline of the public corporation? A brief survey of the economics and external effects of the stock market

In recent years, the number of listed companies has been declining in many countries across the world. This paper provides a selective survey of the literature on the real economic effects of the stock market to assess the potential effects of this decline and determine whether it is likely to continue. The leading economic role of the stock market’s primary market, in which firms raise capital by issuing new shares, is to help growing firms secure financing. We discuss providing and certifying information, coordinating investors, and easing the redeployment of capital as the means through which capital allocation can be efficiently achieved. The main economic roles of the stock market’s secondary market, the trade in existing shares, is to provide liquidity to shareholders, to aid in price discovery and to provide diversification opportunities. Positive external effects from an active stock market may arise for consumers, labor and private firms due to increased corporate investment, more socially responsible business strategies and a more positive business climate. Negative external effects on capital allocation and productivity can arise from short-termism, market mispricing, and increased cross-ownership. Local stock markets can spur innovation and foreign direct investment (FDI) and reduce the risk of early cross-border acquisitions. Given the myriad of useful economic functions the stock market performs, a future entirely absent of public companies is difficult to imagine and the decline is therefore likely at some point to come to an end. Whether we need to worry about the decline depends on the relative importance of the positive and negative external effects, a topic we feel warrants more research.     

Comparative study of FDI in Central and Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean

The European Union (EU) is currently being exposed to strong integration dynamics. However, the full implications of such dynamics for the location of foreign direct investment (FDI) for both the European Union and the bordering countries are not understood. We construct a panel of more than 3500 European multinationals that have invested in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Mediterranean (MED) over the 1990–1997 period in 48 NACE 3 industries. After controlling for industry and time-specific effects, it is found that Central and Eastern Europe displays a greater potential in the attraction of FDI flows when compared to the Mediterranean region.     

New competition and technical change in the computer industry

This paper briefly describes and analyses the competitive strength of the Japanese electronics industry, based on the author's studies of the leading firms in the television and semiconductor industries world wide [1] and notes some of the implications for the computer industry.There are some important similarities among these industries: in particular the crucial role which technology and innovation have played through their implications both for international competitiveness and for the users and consumers of the products of these industries.Although it is not suggested that the computer industry will evolve along exactly the same lines as these other two electronics industries, there are some very useful lessons that may be drawn for the computer industry from the experience of competition in these other sectors.The paper begins by giving some indicators or “measures” of the competitive performance and strength of the Japanese firms. It also explains some of the reasons why they have achieved this performance. Finally, it describes and analyses the pattern of expansion of these industries from domestic market to exports and finally to direct investment in the U.S. and Western Europe, to indicate likely patterns for competition in the computer industry.     

Nature and determinants of productivity growth of foreign subsidiaries in Central and East European countries

The paper examines the determinants of productivity growth in foreign manufacturing subsidiaries in five Central and East European (CEE) countries by analysing patterns of control, nature of firms’ capabilities and firms’ market orientations. Building on the so-called ‘subsidiary development’ perspective, we show that productivity growth is determined jointly by corporate governance, production capability and market orientation variables. Within a dominantly production-oriented mandate, CEE subsidiaries have a relatively high level of autonomy in the control of their business functions. Majority foreign equity shareholding has a significant and positive impact on subsidiaries’ productivity growth. Our results show strong regional characteristics.