北京市二氧化碳排放的驱动因素及减排路径

实现低碳发展对北京市意义重大。北京市近二十年来人口城镇化水平迅速提高,二三产业结构发生巨变,能源效率持续提高,因此运用STIRPAT模型对北京市（1995—2012年）二氧化碳排放的驱动因素进行分析。结果表明：城镇化、人口、产业结构、能源强度、人均GDP依次对北京市二氧化碳排放产生正向驱动作用。北京市低碳发展任重道远,需要在控制人口、转变经济发展方式、深度优化产业结构和能源结构等方面采取强有力的措施。     

Quantitative evaluation of sustainable development based on ecological footprint method: a case study of Tianjin

Since the concept of sustainable development emerged in the late 1980s, more and more countries and regions have been utilizing sustainable development as their developing strategy. But decades have passed without any effective methods available to quantitatively assess sustainable development, Since the ecological footprint evaluation method initiated in 1992, it has become popular in quantitative assessment of sustainable development because of its convenience, easy-understanding, and reliability. As one of the biggest coastal cities in north China and the economic center of the Bohai Coastal Region, Tianjin's gross domestic product (GDP) was 369.762 billion yuan in 2005, accounting for 2.0% of the whole nation's GDP The paper analyzes Tianjin's development with the ecological footprint method, and the results show that Tianjin's ecological footprint and biocapacity in 2005 were 2. 507gha/cap and 0.276gha/cap respectively. The ecological deficit was 2.230gha/cap. And from 1980 to 2005, Tianjin's ecological deficit per 104 yuan GDP decreased; while per capita ecological deficit has been tending to increase rapidly in recent years. All these results demonstrate that Tianjin is in a state of unsustainable development.     

中国大城市低碳发展水平评估与实证分析

大城市既是碳排放的主要载体,也是实现国家和区域低碳发展的重要着力点。本文借鉴DPSIR模型构建了低碳城市综合评价指标体系,采用Spearman秩系数和主成分分析方法,对中国35个重点城市的低碳发展水平进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,我国城市低碳发展水平总体上呈现跃迁的良好势头,但具有明显的地域特征。城市的经济发展水平和资源禀赋及利用仍然是决定现阶段中国城市低碳发展能否顺利实施的重要物质基础和影响因素。     

Evaluation of harmonious development for economy-environment system in coastal cities： a case study of Tianjin Municipality

With the aim of the harmonious development of economy-environment system in coastal cities in China. an index ,system used to evaluate the economy-environment system is built up in this paper, which includes four aspects： economy, environment, resources, and ocean industry. Based on the analysis on present condition and future trends of economic development in Tianjin and the quantification of various evaluation indices, the aathor applies integrated index valuation model to valuate the harmonious development af economy-environment of Tianjin. The results show that the coordinated degree of economy-environment would drop down in the future, from 0.95（superior level of harmonious development） in 2000 to 0.59（inferior level of harmonious development） in 2015. under the circumstance of the current economic development mode. The level of comprehensive development of Tianjin also presents to descend. Based on the analyzing of status and future trends of environment-economy coordinated development, the paper puts forward the countermeasures such as industry, structure adjustment, increasing the level of environmental protection investment, strengthening the enforcement of en vironmental policies to improve the coordinated development of environment-economy in Tianjin municipality.     

Status of CO2 emissions, driving forces and mitigation countermeasures of Tianjin, China

ncing energy efficiency, exploiting and using clean and renewable energy, advancing energy structure adjustments, and actively developing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.     

基于生态足迹理论的天津市可持续发展动态研究

利用生态足迹分析方法对天津市1989—2008年的生态足迹进行了计算和分析。计算结果表明：天津市人均生态足迹由1989年的1.64 hm2上升到2008年的1.65 hm2;同期的人均生态承载力则由0.27 hm2逐年上升到0.32 hm2;人均生态赤字由1.36 hm2降到1.32 hm2。虽然天津市人口对自然资源的利用呈下降趋势、生态足迹与生态承载力之间的矛盾有所减缓,但生态足迹目前仍然超出了自然生态系统的生态承载力范围,现有的发展模式是不可持续的,生态环境处于较不安全的状态。     

Status of CO2 emissions; driving forces and mitigation countermeasles of Tianjin, China

Climate change is a long-term and important challenge facing the whole world. Mitigation of CO2 emissions is one of important measures responding to climate change. The task of responding to climate change facing each city is very urgent. The total amount of Tianjin City＆#39;s CO2 emissions from energy use and industrial processes is large and the amount of CO2 emissions per capita from fossil fuel combustion is quite high. Mitigation of CO2 emission in Tianjin City encounters many difficulties such as increasing population, rapidly growing economy, heavy industrial structure, backward tertiary industry, low level of energy efficiency and product technologies, and energy structure relying mainly on coal. This paper analyzes Tianjin City＆#39;s general situation of economic and social developments, estimates Tianjin City＆#39;s status of CO2 emissions using 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, analyzes Tianjin City＆#39;s driving forces of CO2 emissions by methodology to analyze the driving forces of energy-related CO2 emissions, and puts forward countermeasures mitigating CO2 emissions in Tianjin City, such as strictly controlling increasing population, expediting industrial structure adjustment, insisting on strategy of energy conserving, vigorously enhancing energy efficiency, exploiting and using clean and renewable energy, advancing energy structure adjustments, and actively developing carbon capture and storage （CCS） technologies.     

基于SPCA的我国地区发展评价和分析

唯GDP的考核方式造成了诸多问题。采用稀疏主成分分析构建了新的地区发展评价指数。研究表明,采用该方法是适合的,构造的指数不仅克服了大多数指数权重设置的主观性,能够有效分析地区综合发展水平,而且有利于透视地区发展各个方面存在的不平衡以及历史演进过程。     

天津滨海新区开发与河北经济发展战略的转型

天津滨海新区开发战略的实施丰富了河北两环开放带动战略的内容，并使之从以北京为中心向以天津为指向转变。在生产力的空间布局上，可更加充分地利用港口优势，带动经济重心从山前地带向沿海迁移。推进环渤海重化工业基地的建设；在产业结构上，将加快津冀区域经济一体化进程，力争在错位发展中实现河北产业结构的调整与升级。     

天津市华明镇土地开发整理模式研究

天津市华明镇通过＂宅基地换房＂土地开发整理新模式在为中心城市提供了大量城市建设用地的同时,又提供了促进农村城镇化的建设资金。利用案例分析方法,对华明镇宅基地换房背景分析,分析了华明镇模式在农用土地流转、征地补偿、土地集约利用、产业结构优化、城镇规划以及城乡一体化等方面的现实和理论意义,研究认为华明镇模式是目前解决大城市地区农村城市化面临的土地和资金问题可供选择的模式之一。     

Applying input-output analysis to scenario analysis of ecological footprints

Application of input-output analysis to ecological footprints (EFs) is shifting from an ex-post static calculation toward an ex-ante scenario analysis for enhancing the policy relevance of EF analysis. This change in application prompts two issues requiring careful examination: (1) what is measured by Leontief inverses or extended environmental Leontief inverses, and (2) whether a sector's land multiplier (or compositions of land multiplier) can appropriately reflect the effect of delivering one unit of the sector's output to final demand on the required area(s) of production lands used by the sector itself and by other producing sectors whose products are contributed directly and indirectly to its production. The underlying message of these two questions is whether the assumed linear marginal relationship between a sector's output and its intermediate inputs (input-output coefficients)—a critical assumption made by W. Leontief to transform a transactions table from an accounting framework into the input-output model—can be extended to assume that the marginal relationship between a sector's output and the area of production land it uses for generating output is fixed (land-output marginal coefficient equal to average coefficient). By reviewing the literature on input-output analysis and its application to environmental issues and by theoretically and empirically examining the relation between sector output and land appropriation, this study advises against the use of land multipliers or their compositions in the EF scenario analysis.To apply the input-output model to EF scenario analysis for enhancing policy relevance with due attention to the relationship between sector output and land appropriation, this study suggests a two-stage EF calculation procedure. In the first stage, the input-output application estimates only the required raw materials (or generated pollutants) for meeting a given consumption pattern, which is the objective of environmental input-output analysis; in the second stage, the estimated amount of raw materials or pollutants is converted into land/water area, and a choice of conversion methods is suggested according to the research questions and the availability of conversion methods and required data.     

基于可持续发展理念的区域产业安全评估——以天津滨海新区为例

在总结国内产业安全研究的经验和不足的基础上,从可持续发展角度,采用层次分析法,从产业结构、产业活力和产业依存度3个方面以及12个二级指标构建了区域产业安全评价指标体系,并以天津滨海新区为例进行了区域产业安全度测算。结果表明:2001—2010年滨海新区的产业安全度较低,基本处于不安全状态。造成滨海新区安全度较低的原因包括:三次产业中工业比重过高,服务业比重远低于同类区域,工业内部结构中,高耗能、高污染行业比重较大,区域整体的技术创新能力不足。同时,滨海新区对资源和能源的依赖度较高也是造成安全低的原因。最后,针对滨海新区实际,从可持续发展角度,提出了提高产业安全度的对策建议。     

Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China

This paper investigates the existence and direction of Granger causality between economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in China, applying a multivariate model of economic growth, energy use, carbon emissions, capital and urban population. Empirical results for China over the period 1960-2007 suggest a unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to carbon emissions in the long run. Evidence shows that neither carbon emissions nor energy consumption leads economic growth. Therefore, the government of China can purse conservative energy policy and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth.     

Markups,productivity and external market development of the service SMEs

During the last decade, economists and policy makers have extensively discussed what types of firms can exploit external markets by exporting and what happens to domestic firms if external competitors penetrate into the home market. Although both theoretical and empirical studies have been dedicated to these issues, few have been carried out for the service sector. Since the service sector accounts for the lion’s share of GDP, the lack of those studies indicates that a large part of the actual economy still remains veiled. Our study fills this gap. We examine whether or not the Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) model remains satisfied in the service sector, using data from Japanese SMEs. From our analysis, we confirm that larger market sizes are associated with higher productivity levels. On the other hand, firms with higher markups tend to develop their business in smaller markets, conditional of the simultaneity between production and consumption. These results reveal that further productivity growth in the service sector also requires markets to be larger and more integrated. In addition, the markup levels become lower in those markets.     

中国金融发展与全要素生产率关系研究

运用柯布一道格拉斯生产函数和增长核算法计算出1978—2006年全国的TFP,并选取FIR作为金融发展指标,对二者进行单位根检验、协整检验,继而运用误差修正模型得出FIR与TFP的回归方程。实证结果显示,长期全要素生产率存在一定的自回归调整,金融发展的短期波动也起到了显著的调整作用。     

Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market

The technological substitution model, proposed in 1971, was designed to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technologies replacing old ones. It was expanded in 1979 to consider more than two generations and the substitution process among various entities in the market. However, this expanded model is often limited by a relative lack of data on the latest-generation technology.On the other hand, scenario analysis, as another breed to forecasting tool, provides rich and complex portraits of possible future development of technologies. However, it fails to provide quantifiable forecasts. Therefore, previous researchers combined these two methods to analyze the development of new technologies.Nevertheless, to make forecasting more holistic, the current opinions of seasoned experts should also be taken into account. However, because of the often-diverged expert opinions, a method for consensus building, such as the Delphi method, is also necessary. Therefore, we combined the scenario analysis with the Delphi method and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of a new technology, namely, the latest-generation television (TV), or the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV. We elaborate three possible scenarios, and forecast the market share of OLED TV and four other TV technologies in the global market over the next 10 years: cathode ray tube, rear projection, plasma display panel, and liquid crystal display.     

Construction of legal system of carbon emissions trading in China

Countries in the world have taken a variety of means to control carbon emissions based on the serious situation of global warming,the concept of low-carbon economy and the provisions about emissions in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change（UNFCCC） and the Kyoto Protocol.With the measures of emissions reductions,the system of carbon emissions trading is taking shape.It is necessary for China as the big natural resources consumption country to establish its own carbon emissions trading system.By introducing the carbon emissions trading system of the European Union,America and Japan,and analyzing the market and policies been formed,the carbon emissions trading system in China can be established from the initial configuration of the emissions rights,the subject and object of carbon emissions trading,establishing the carbon emissions trading exchange and supervising and regulating the carbon emissions trading.     

津与京沪穗城镇居民收入差距及其成因分析

从津与京沪穗三市居民收入存在较大差距且逐步扩大的事实出发,从各分项收入的角度分析得出全民集体经济、其他所有制得到的收入和转移收入是津与京沪穗居民收入差距的主要原因;这三种收入之所以对实际收入差距的贡献较大,既有其收入比重差距的原因,又有其内部差距较大的原因;探讨了收入差距之外的因素:所有制、经营机制和产业发展。     

中国可再生能源产业化发展的成长过程分析

本文在明确可再生能源和可再生能源产业化概念的基础上，分析了可再生能源产业化发展的成长过程，并对中国可再生能源政策的发展阶段、农村能源产业的成长过程、可再生能源技术商业化的发展阶段进行了分析。