Income and bargaining effects on education and health in Brazil

This study examines the impacts of the 1991 reform of Brazil's rural pension system on schooling and health indicators. We conclude that the reform had significant positive effects on schooling, especially on literacy for girls co-residing with a male pensioner. We were unable to find similar results for children living with a female pensioner. We further investigated whether these results were driven by bargaining power differences within households; our findings suggest that this explanation is plausible.     

Does increased access increase equality? Gender and child health investments in India

Increases in access to social services are often thought to decrease inequality in the level of these services between advantaged and disadvantaged groups. This is an issue in the developing world, where policy-makers often argue that increasing the level of health care, for example, will decrease gender inequality. However, increases in access to services often have empirically ambiguous effects on inequality, increasing it in some cases and decreasing it in others. This paper argues that this is not surprising, and simple economic theory suggests that we should expect a non-monotonic relationship between access and inequality. At low levels of access to investments, there is no investment for either the advantaged or disadvantaged group, producing equality. Increases in access increase investment for the advantaged group first, generating inequality. Further increases in access increase investment in the disadvantaged group, decreasing inequality. I test the predictions of this theory using data on the availability of health camps (or distance to health centers) and gender differences in vaccinations in India. I find strong support for a non-monotonic relationship between access and gender equality.     

Measuring the incentives to learn in Colombia using new quantile regression approaches

This paper employs newly developed quantile regression techniques to investigate a policy that could differentially affect students' performance. The Colombian vouchers were assigned using lotteries, and were renewable as long as the students maintained satisfactory academic progress. This second aspect of the program may provide incentives for low attainment students to work harder. The evidence supports the hypothesis that incentives could account for the impact of the vouchers, including lower repetition rate. The effect of the vouchers is largest in the lower tail of the educational attainment distribution, a possibility that was conjectured by others, but has not yet been confirmed empirically. The evidence suggests that the incentive effect of the program increases weak students' test scores by at least 0.1 standard deviations, roughly the score gain associated to a half year of school learning.     

Tax/subsidy policies toward vector-borne infectious diseases

Vector-borne diseases especially rife in poor countries pose sectoral tax/subsidy issues. Preventions and therapies mitigate these diseases in a numerical optimization model combining dynamic epidemiology and economics. The medical distinction between prevention and therapy does not distinguish economic properties of preventions and therapies. Some interventions increase and others decrease moving to the steady state, depending: on the utility function, the targeting of interventions and the disease process. Interventions display negative own-price but indeterminate cross-price effects. Juxtaposing the social planner's with decentralized choices quantifies externalities and shows how subsidies implement the first-best. One prevention and the therapy are equally subsidized.     

Supply and quality choices in private child care markets: Evidence from São Paulo

Many developing countries have adopted the market approach for expanding the supply of child care, but little is known about the economic behavior of independent providers. Drawing on uniquely rich census data on child care providers from São Paulo, we document three main facts: (1) the stock of private suppliers is considerably larger in high-income city districts; (2) the quality of private provision – as measured by teachers' schooling, group size and equipment – is highly heterogeneous across space and increases systematically with local household income; and (3) a considerable share of centers operates below recommended (but not regulated) quality standards, especially in low-income districts. These findings are consistent with a model of endogenous entry and quality choices by heterogeneous providers. Market-driven heterogeneity in the quality of provision across space is an important consideration for the design of regulations in child care markets.     

AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach

Using a model that combines growth and health capital equations this study analyses the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth. The econometric results indicate that the epidemic's effects have been substantial; in Africa the marginal impact on income per capita of a 1% increase in HIV prevalence rate is minus 0.59%. Even in countries with lower HIV prevalence rates the marginal impacts are non-trivial. Hence while the human and social costs of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are major causes for concern, these results indicate that the macroeconomic affects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are important.     

Who benefits more from higher household consumption? The intra-household allocation of nutrients in China

Previous studies find that human capital investments in boys are less income elastic than investments in girls, attributing this result to favoritism toward boys. I show theoretically that it is plausible for more productive or favored household members to have higher income elasticities. I then investigate this question empirically, utilizing panel data on individual nutrient intake from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) to analyze how changes in household per-capita nutrient intake affect the intra-household allocation of nutrients. To deal with potential biases due to omitted variables and simultaneity, I use measures of rainfall variation as instruments. I find that nutritional intakes are more elastic for males (especially prime-age men) than for females, and significantly less elastic for the elderly.     

Stunting and selection effects of famine: A case study of the Great Chinese Famine

Many developing countries experience famine. If survival is related to height, the increasingly common practice of using height as a measure of well-being may be misleading. We devise a novel method for disentangling the stunting from the selection effects of famine. Using data from the 1959-1961 Great Chinese Famine, we find that taller children were more likely to survive the famine. Controlling for selection, we estimate that children under the age of five who survived the famine grew up to be 1 to 2 cm shorter. Our results suggest that if a country experiences a shock such as famine, average height is potentially a biased measure of economic conditions during childhood.     

The human capital consequences of civil war: Evidence from Guatemala

We combine data from the 2002 National Population Census and the distribution of the number of human rights violations and victims across 22 departments to examine how Guatemala's 36-year-long civil war affected human capital accumulation. The year of birth and the department of birth jointly determine an individual's exposure during school age to three different periods of the civil war, namely the initial period (1960-1978), the worst period (1979-1984), and the final period (1985-1996). We find a strong negative impact of the civil war on the education of the two most disadvantaged groups, namely rural Mayan males and females. Among rural Mayan males, those who were school age during the three periods of the civil war in departments where more human rights violations were committed completed 0.27, 0.71, and 1.09 years less of schooling respectively whereas rural Mayan females exposed to the three periods of the war completed 0.12, 0.47, and 1.17 years less of schooling respectively. Given an average of 4.66 and 3.83 years of schooling for males and females, these represent declines of 6, 15, and 23% for males and 3, 12, and 30% for females. Our results are robust to the inclusion of indicators for department of residence, year of birth, and controls for different trends in education and human development in war-affected and peaceful departments of Guatemala and suggest that the country's civil war may have deepened gender, regional, sectoral, and ethnic disparities in schooling.     

Almost random: Evaluating a large-scale randomized nutrition program in the presence of crossover

Large-scale randomized interventions have the potential to uncover the causal effect of programs applying to a large population, thereby improving on the insights gained from currently dominant smaller randomized studies. However, the external validity gained through larger interventions typically risks deviation from the randomization protocol. This paper investigates the impact of the Nutrition Enhancement Program, which aims to improve child nutrition in Senegal. The analysis deals with deviation from the planned treatment and suggests approaches for combining ex-post adjustments such as propensity score matching with the randomized treatment plan. The authors do not detect a strong overall program impact on the outcome measure of weight-for-age based on planned treatment status, but do find an impact on the youngest children. Moreover, the project impact is clearer when the analysis considers treatment crossover using alternative estimators of two-stage least-squares and propensity score matching. The findings underscore the importance of addressing the shortcomings of large-scale randomization interventions in a systematic manner to guide further implementation of such projects, as well as to expose the true causal effect of such programs.     

How does the impact of an HIV/AIDS information campaign vary with educational attainment? Evidence from rural Uganda

The responsiveness to information is thought to be one channel through which education affects health outcomes. This paper tests this hypothesis by examining the effectiveness of an information campaign that aims at preventing the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Uganda. It uses individual level data from a cohort study following and testing the general population of a cluster of villages in rural Uganda over 12 years and shows that, after more than a decade of prevention campaigns about the dangers of the epidemic, there has been a substantial evolution in the HIV/education gradient. Early in the epidemic, in 1990, there was no robust relation between HIV/AIDS and education. In 2000, among young females, education is associated with a lower risk of being HIV positive. Results on HIV incidence in a duration framework confirm that finding by establishing that, for young women, education reduces the probability of seroconversion. These findings reveal that educated women have been more responsive to the HIV/AIDS information campaigns. The analysis of sexual behavior reinforces that conclusion: condom use is associated positively with schooling levels.     

Civil wars beyond their borders: The human capital and health consequences of hosting refugees

In early 1994, Kagera - a region in northwestern Tanzania - was flooded by more than 500,000 refugees fleeing from the genocides of Burundi and Rwanda. I use this population shock and a series of topographic barriers that resulted in variation in refugee intensity to investigate the short- and long-run causal effects of hosting refugees on outcomes of local children. This strategy provides evidence of adverse impacts over one year after the shock: a worsening of children's anthropometrics (0.3 standard deviations), an increase in the incidence of infectious diseases (15-20 percentage points) and an increase in mortality for children under five (7 percentage points). I also find that intra- and inter-cohort variation in childhood exposure to the refugee crisis reduced height in early adulthood by 1.8 cm (1.2%), schooling by 0.2 years (7.1%) and literacy by 7 percentage points (8.6%). Designs using the distance to the border with Rwanda as an alternative identification strategy for refugee intensity support the findings. The estimates are robust across different samples, specifications and estimation methods and provide evidence of a previously undocumented indirect effect of civil wars on the well-being of children and subsequent economic growth in refugee-hosting communities.     

Accounting for the effect of health on cross-state income inequality in India

We perform development accounting in accordance with [Weil, 2005] and [Weil, 2007] in a cross-state analysis of India. Results of similar magnitude are found, demonstrating that health can account for 1% to 18% of income differences depending on the health measure.     

Troubling tradeoffs in the Human Development Index

The 20th Human Development Report introduced a new version of its famous Human Development Index (HDI), which aggregates country-level attainments in life expectancy, schooling and income. The main change was to relax the past assumption of perfect substitutability between its components. Most users will not, however, realize that the new HDI has also greatly reduced its implicit weight on longevity in poor countries, relative to rich ones. By contrast, the new HDI's valuations of extra schooling are now very high—many times the economic returns. An alternative index is proposed that embodies less troubling tradeoffs while still allowing imperfect substitution.