The relationship between the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition and other permanent–transitory decompositions that are popular in economics

The Beveridge–Nelson (BN) decomposition is a model-based method for decomposing time series into permanent and transitory components. When constructed from an ARIMA model, it is closely related to decompositions based on unobserved components (UC) models with random walk trends and covariance stationary cycles. The decomposition when extended to I(2)$I\left(2\right)$ models can also be related to non-model-based signal extraction filters such as the HP filter. We show that the BN decomposition provides information on the correlation between the permanent and transitory shocks in a certain class of UC models. The correlation between components is known to determine the smoothed estimates of components from UC models. The BN decomposition can also be used to evaluate the efficacy of alternative methods. We also demonstrate, contrary to popular belief, that the BN decomposition can produce smooth cycles if the reduced form forecasting model is appropriately specified.     

Markov-switching and the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?

We show that, for a class of univariate and multivariate Markov-switching models, exact calculation of the Beveridge–Nelson (BN) trend/cycle components is possible. The key to exact BN trend/cycle decomposition is to recognize that the latent first-order Markov-switching process in the model has an AR(1) representation, and that the model can be cast into a state-space form. Given the state-space representation, we show that impulse-response function analysis can be processed with respect to either an asymmetric discrete shock or to a symmetric continuous shock. The method presented is applied to Kim, Morley, Piger’s [Kim, C.-J., Morley, J., Piger, J., 2005. Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 291–309] univariate Markov-switching model of real GDP with a post-recession ‘bounce-back’ effect and Cochrane’s [Cochrane, J.H., 1994. Permanent and transitory components of GNP and stock prices. Quarterly Journal of Economics 109, 241–263] vector error correction model of real GDP and real consumption extended to incorporate Markov-switching. The parameter estimates, the BN trend/cycle components, and the impulse-response function analysis for each of these empirical models suggest that the persistence of US real GDP has increased since the mid-1980’s.     

The deterministic shift extension and the affine dynamic Nelson–Siegel model

The affine dynamic Nelson–Siegel model links the affine class of models with the Nelson–Siegel interpolation scheme of the yield curve. Its parameters are interpreted as the latent factors of the spot rate process driven by an affine diffusion. Using an appropriate specification of this diffusion, the yields become in form of the Nelson–Siegel model but an adjustment term is introduced. In this paper, the model is extended using a deterministic shift extension so as to perfectly fit the term structure and reduce the correction term. This enhancement allows to simulate the yield curve and the spot rate process consistently with the market data used for the calibration of the model. A numerical example discusses the calibration results of the original model and the proposed extension.     

Nelson–Plosser revisited: The ACF approach

We detect a new stylized fact that is common to the dynamics of all macroeconomic series, including financial aggregates. Their Auto-Correlation Functions (ACFs) share a common four-parameter functional form that arises from the dynamics of a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms. We find that, not only does our formula fit the data better than the ACFs that arise from auto-regressive and fractionally-integrated models, but it also yields the correct shape of the ACF, thus explaining the lags with which macroeconomic variables evolve and the onset of seemingly-sudden turning points. This finding puts a premium on quick and decisive macroeconomic policy interventions at the first signs of a turning point, in contrast to gradualist approaches.     

Cultural boundaries of self-justification and prospect theories in escalation of commitment: a US–Mexico comparison

The interplay among managers' cultural origin (i.e. Mexican vs. the USA), decision context and framing was investigated to test the cultural boundaries of self-justification and prospect theories in escalation of commitment. An experimental design indicated that, although a negative decision frame had a greater impact on escalation of commitment among Mexican managers, a positive frame had a greater impact on escalation of commitment among American managers. Moreover, a pattern indicating that framing had an opposite effect in each country emerged when the decision context was negative. Specifically, when the incoming information is positive, US decision-makers escalate their commitment to a failing course of action, whereas it is negative incoming information that leads to escalation for Mexican decision-makers.     

The consumption–investment decision of a prospect theory household: A two-period model

This study extends the literature on portfolio choice under prospect theory preferences by introducing a two-period life cycle model, where the sufficiently loss averse household decides on optimal consumption and investment in a portfolio with one risk-free and one risky asset. The optimal solution depends primarily on whether the household’s present value of the consumption reference levels is below, equal to, or above the present value of its endowment income. Reference levels below the endowment income are associated with the self-enhancement motive. In this case, the household avoids relative losses in consumption in any present or future state of nature (good or bad). As a result the degree of loss aversion does not directly affect optimal consumption and risk taking activity. Reference levels equal to the endowment income are associated with the belonging motive. An example would be a household comparing to others that belong to the same social class. In this case the household’s optimal consumption is the reference consumption and the household will not invest in the risky asset. Finally, reference levels above the endowment income are associated with the self-improvement motive (or high aspirations). For such high reference levels, households cannot avoid experiencing a relative loss in consumption, either now or in the future. As a result, loss aversion directly affects consumption and risky investment.     

Robust growth-equity decomposition of change in poverty: The case of Iran (2000–2009)

This paper examines a robust nonparametric methodology for decomposition of change in poverty into growth and redistribution components. The decomposition is exact, symmetric and free of residual terms. It is equivalent to the Shapley value decomposition in this two-component case. We avoid parametric assumptions about the underlying distributions and Lorenz functions. All of the currently popular poverty measures may be decomposed as suggested in this paper. We identify the issues that arise with parametric approaches to decomposition. An empirical application is given based on recent data on real consumption in rural and urban areas of Iran in 2000, 2004 and 2009 (covering the country's third and fourth five-year development plans). We find that both ‘pure growth’ and ‘redistribution’ components are present in a striking change in poverty, especially among rural households. It would appear that stochastic dominance rankings of the consumption distributions make poverty analyses and decompositions robust to the choice of a poverty line, or poverty measure.     

The gender diversity–performance relationship in services and manufacturing organizations

Empirical findings on the link between gender diversity and performance have been inconsistent. This paper presents three competing predictions of the organizational gender diversity–performance relationship: a positive linear prediction derived from the resource-based view of the firm, a negative linear prediction derived from self-categorization and social identity theories, and an inverted U-shaped curvilinear prediction derived from the integration of the resource-based view of the firm with self-categorization and social identity theories. This paper also proposes a moderating effect of industry type (services vs. manufacturing) on the gender diversity–performance relationship. The predictions were tested in publicly listed Australian organizations using archival quantitative data with a longitudinal research design. The results show partial support for the positive linear and inverted U-shaped curvilinear predictions as well as for the proposed moderating effect of industry type. The curvilinear relationship indicates that different proportions of organizational gender diversity have different effects on organizational performance, which may be attributed to different dynamics as suggested by the resource-based view and self-categorization and social identity theories. The results help reconcile the inconsistent findings of past research that focused on the linear gender diversity–performance relationship. The findings also show that industry context can strengthen or weaken the effects of organizational gender diversity on performance.     

The roles of implementation and organizational culture in the HR–performance link

This article attempts to (1) explore the process by which a high-performance work system (HPWS) affects firm performance and (2) demonstrate the mediating role of implementation and organizational culture in the HPWS-performance link. The proposed model was tested using a sample of 243 Hong Kong and Taiwanese firms operating in Guangdong, China. The results from the present study supported the hypothesized mediation of implementation and organizational culture on the HR–performance relationship. This study offers important insights into the mediating mechanism of the HPWS-performance research. Implications for research and managerial practices are provided.     

A decomposition of trends in U.S. consumer expenditures on communications and travel: 1984–2002

This paper offers a conceptual and partly empirical decomposition of the trends in U.S. consumer expenditures on five communications and nine transportation subcategories between 1984 and 2002. We find that inflation nearly always increases unit prices. Income effects are positive for all categories, meaning that these are all normal goods, not inferior ones. We speculate that taste changes have contributed to increasing expenditures in most categories, with the exception of out-of-town lodging, the public transit component of the public transportation category, and the old communication media categories of postage and reading. We suggest that production and technological changes have led to decreased unit prices in most categories. In the private vehicle operations categories, technological improvements dominate, so that expenditure shares have been decreasing despite increasing demand. Conversely, in the new media categories, taste changes dominate, so that expenditure shares are increasing despite technological improvements which lower prices. The decomposition explored here enhances our understanding of these important expenditure categories, and provides a useful methodology with which to examine trends in other categories as well.     

The Glass–Steagall Act in historical perspective

Implementation of Volcker's Rule requires a historical perspective on the original Glass–Steagall Act of 1933 that separated commercial banking from investment banks in the United States. Like the Dodd-Frank legislation, the Banking Act of 1933 was passed before full analysis of the financial crisis was possible. The intended consequences of Glass–Steagall made Federal deposit insurance feasible by limiting entry of new banks while preserving unit banking. The unintended consequences, however, cut off access by small- and medium-size enterprises to external finance and also reduced the capital base for investment banks. Despite these harmful effects, the American economy did recover eventually.     

The stock–bond comovements and cross-market trading

We propose an asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents allocating capital to the stock and bond markets to optimize their portfolios, utilizing the dynamic interaction between the two markets. While some agents focus on the stock market and have more expertise in it, the others specialize in the bond market. Based on their comparative advantages in a particular market, heterogeneous agents constantly revise their investment portfolios by taking into account the time-varying stock–bond return comovements and the changing market conditions. Agents׳ collective investment behavior shapes the stock–bond interlinkage, which feedbacks on their subsequent capital allocations. Using monthly US stock and bond data from January 1990 to June 2014, we estimate the vector autoregression model with threshold and Markov switching mechanisms. We find evidence in support of flight-to-quality and show that it is mainly driven by the technical traders who actively sell stocks and buy bonds during periods of high market uncertainty.     

The use–make framework and the derivation of functional forms in production theory

The use–make framework is employed to explain functional forms in production theory, including Cobb–Douglas and Leontief. Productivity and efficiency are interrelated by augmenting the framework with a linear program that determines the frontier output.     

The joint effect of leader–member exchange and emotional intelligence on burnout and work performance in call centers in China

We examined the joint effect of LMX and emotional intelligence (EI) on burnout and work performance. Results based on data collected from 493 leader-member dyads in the call center of a large Chinese telecommunication company indicated that LMX was negatively related to burnout, yet was not significantly related to objective work performance. Moreover, we examined the effects of the four dimensions of EI (self-emotion appraisal, other-emotion appraisal, use of emotion, and regulation of emotion) on burnout and performance, and found that burnout mediated the link between use of emotion and work performance. Results also showed that LMX was associated with burnout and work performance more strongly for service workers with lower levels of self-emotion appraisal. More surprisingly, the link between LMX and work performance was stronger for service workers with higher levels of use of emotion.     

Adaptive dynamic Nelson–Siegel term structure model with applications

We propose an Adaptive Dynamic Nelson–Siegel (ADNS) model to adaptively detect parameter changes and forecast the yield curve. The model is simple yet flexible and can be safely applied to both stationary and nonstationary situations with different sources of parameter changes. For the 3- to 12-months ahead out-of-sample forecasts of the US yield curve from 1998:1 to 2010:9, the ADNS model dominates both the popular reduced-form and affine term structure models; compared to random walk prediction, the ADNS steadily reduces the forecast error measurements by between 20% and 60%. The locally estimated coefficients and the identified stable subsamples over time align with policy changes and the timing of the recent financial crisis.     

The measurement of work–family culture in Spain and some applications to other economies

This investigation adapts the scales assessing work–family culture to consider several characteristics found in Spanish organizations (e.g. extended schedules and a high value attributed to working long hours). Organizational phenomena not included in other scales are integrated into a modified instrument (e.g. managers efforts to inform about the available work–family benefits, being considered more efficient when working many hours). Suggestions on the measurement of these new features in other economies are provided. Two studies are conducted: one to develop the scale and another to validate it. The resulting instrument comprehends three components: managerial support, career consequences and supervisor support.     

The Sato–Vartia index and the monotonicity axiom

The Sato–Vartia index is believed to be on a par with the Fisher ideal index in terms of its ability to satisfy index number axioms or tests. Yet we show that this index fails to satisfy the monotonicity axiom, and we provide formulas for the point at which a Sato–Vartia price index becomes non-monotonic in prices. In fact, requiring monotonicity for initial as well as final prices rules out not only the Sato–Vartia index but all log-change price indexes whose weights depend upon initial or final expenditure shares. Since cost of living index theory leads naturally to the Sato–Vartia index, as well as to other log-change indexes, there is an irreconcilable tension between the standard axiomatics for indexes, and cost of living index theory.