凯恩斯假设下AD-AS模型的比较静态分析

在凯恩斯假设下的AD-AS模型是一个静态分析模型,文章在假设下,讨论了财政政策和货币政策对产出和价格、利率和投资的影响,分析结果表明:财政政策和货币政策对产出水平和劳动力市场的失业率具有直接的影响,结果同的假设下的分析结果相同,不过变动幅度同以上不同。     

Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: Evidence for the United States

This paper examines the extent to which fiscal policy actions affect the stock market's behavior for the US during 1968–2005. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that past budget deficits negatively affect current stock returns thus suggesting that the market is inefficient with respect to information about future fiscal policy actions. One interpretation of this ‘disturbing’ result is that market participants do not place much faith on news about the budget deficits as they do not believe that deficits could adversely impact the stock market. Instead, what the market considers most important is news about monetary policy.     

Impacts of Monetary, Fiscal and Exchange Rate Policies on Output in China: A Var Approach

Applying the VAR model and using the interest rate as a monetary policy variable, we find that in the long run, output in China responds negatively to a shock to the interest rate, the real exchange rate, government debt, or the inflation rate, and it reacts positively to a shock to government deficits or lagged own output. When real M2 is chosen as a monetary policy variable, long-term output in China responds positively to a shock to real M2 or lagged own output, and it reacts negatively to a shock to the real exchange rate, government debt, or government deficits. Its response to a shock to the inflation rate is negative when government debt is used and is positive when government deficits are considered. In the short run, fiscal policy is more important than monetary policy in three out of four cases. In the long run, monetary policy is more influential than fiscal policy in three out of four cases. Therefore, the government may consider conducting monetary and fiscal policies differently in the short run and long run. The government needs to be cautious in pursuing deficit spending as its long-term impacts depend on the monetary variable employed. The policy of maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate is appropriate as the depreciation of the Yuan may hurt the economy in the short run.JEL Classifications: E5, F4, H6     

Fiscal Policies and Credit Regimes: A TVAR Approach

This work investigates how the state of credit markets affects the impact of fiscal policies. We estimate a threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) model on US quarterly data for the period 1984–2010. We employ the spread between BAA‐rated corporate bond yield and 10‐year treasury constant maturity rate as a proxy for credit conditions. We find that the response of output to fiscal policy shocks is stronger and more persistent when the economy is in the ‘tight’ credit regime. Fiscal multipliers are significantly different in the two regimes: they are abundantly and persistently higher than one when firms face increasing financing costs, whereas they are feebler and often lower than one in the ‘normal’ credit regime. The results appear to be robust to different model specifications, fiscal foresight, alternative threshold variables, different measure of variables and sample periods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of monetary policy on stock market bubbles and trading behavior: Evidence from the lab

We investigate the effect of monetary policy on stock market bubbles and trading behavior in experimental asset markets. We introduce the possibility of investing in interest bearing bonds to the widely used laboratory asset market design of Smith et al. (1988). Treatment groups face a variable interest rate policy which depends on asset prices, while control groups are subjected to a constant interest rate. We observe a strong impact of our interest rate policy on liquidity in the stock market but only a small impact on bubbles. However, we find that announcing the possibility of reserve requirements significantly reduces bubbles.     

Fiscal Policy in the New Open Economy Macroeconomics and Prospects for Fiscal Policy Coordination

Abstract.  This paper reviews the literature on the effects of fiscal policy in new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) models, complementing it with additional results that attempt to clarify the importance of the exchange rate regime (fixed or flexible) and of the type of policy (balanced budget or debt‐financed). Fixed exchange rates only seem to postpone the costs from the short to the long run, but the type of policy is crucial in determining the welfare impact of fiscal expansions. The paper also reviews the recent literature on fiscal policy coordination and shows that there is already some evidence that the gains from coordination in this area can be potentially large but draw attention to the need for reflecting more on the role of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool and on possible interactions between fiscal and monetary policy.     

浅析影响房地产价格的三大政策因素

文章在根据近年房地产市场迅速发展的基础上,对房地产价格的影响较大的土地政策、金融政策和财税政策等三大宏观调控政策进行了深入的分析。     

货币政策和财政政策、市场情绪与大类资产收益——基于隐性知识传播视角的解读

以货币政策和财政政策为主的宏观经济政策松紧程度不仅对大类资产收益产生直接效应,还会通过市场情绪对大类资产收益产生间接效应。通过构建基于隐性知识传播的概念模型,探究了宏观经济政策、市场情绪和大类资产收益之间的内在逻辑关系,并提出三个研究假说：宏观经济政策紧缩程度的提高会降低大类资产收益;宏观经济政策紧缩程度的提高会促进市场情绪高涨;宏观经济政策紧缩程度的提高会通过市场情绪高涨,进一步降低大类资产收益。在采用多种计量检验方法并进行稳健性检验后,检验结果都能很好地验证所提出的三个研究假说,研究结论能为我国政府制定相关宏观经济政策提供决策参考。     

财政货币政策、房价波动与宏观杠杆——基于信心传导机制的分析

利用市场主体信心的微观调查数据,借助仿真情景模拟下的反事实实验方法对信心能否在财政政策和货币政策调控杠杆与房价的过程中发挥作用进行实证分析,而后利用TVP-VAR模型对其内在机制展开深入探讨.研究表明,当信心被虚拟冲击抵消后,政策效果与基准结果呈现明显分化.即信心能够显著影响财政货币政策对杠杆与房价的作用效果,且经进一...     

Economic policy uncertainty and industry risk on China’s stock market

We propose a dynamic mixture Copula with time-varying weight, which is endowed with generalized autoregressive score dynamics. Based on this model, we portray the lower-tail dependence between the return of WIND first-level industry and CSI-300 index as a proxy variable for the industry risk in China’s stock market, and use the VAR-GARCH-in-mean model based on BEKK-GARCH to deconstruct the different impact of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on industry risk of the first and second moments in terms of four policy categories, namely fiscal policy, monetary policy, trade policy, and foreign exchange rate and capital account policy. The results are followed. Firstly, the risk of Consumer Discretionary is averagely the highest, while the risk of Utilities remains the lowest. Secondly, category-specific EPU has no significant mean spillover to the risk of overall industries, while the variance spillover is significant for all the cases. Thirdly, except for Real Estate, the GARCH-in-mean effect is not significant of EPU on industry risks. Further more, all those three kinds of impact show industrial heterogeneities. To avoid systemic risks, we advise that the issue of economic policy should be forward-looking, consistent, and targeted, especially for sensitive industries.     

从信用通道改善中国宏观经济政策效率

运用信用传导理论,我们认为:宏观信用状况对经济周期具有的良好的指示剂功能;信用作为经济体系的内部通道,将作用于宏观经济运行,改变其速率和效果;同时,调控信用管理系统将能够改善和影响宏观经济的发展和变化。中国经济的货币政策弱效性问题利用信用通道传导机制可以得到很好的解释。在中国资本市场的不完善、信息不对称以及长期形成的强银行信贷结构加剧了信用通道的作用效力。因此,从信用传导理论的角度对中国经济政策进行检讨和改善,才能真正制定出行之有效的宏观经济政策,从而缓解当前通货紧缩压力,使经济体系进入良性运行轨道。     

Evolving United States stock market volatility: The role of conventional and unconventional monetary policies

Despite the econometric advances of the last 30 years, the effects of monetary policy stance during the boom and busts of the stock market are not clearly defined. In this paper, we use a structural heterogeneous vector autoregressive (SHVAR) model with identified structural breaks to analyse the impact of both conventional and unconventional monetary policies on U.S. stock market volatility. We find that contractionary monetary policy enhances stock market volatility, but the importance of monetary policy shocks in explaining volatility evolves across different regimes and is relative to supply shocks (and shocks to volatility itself). In comparison to business cycle fluctuations, monetary policy shocks explain a greater fraction of the variance of stock market volatility at shorter horizons, as in medium to longer horizons. Our basic findings of a positive impact of monetary policy on equity market volatility (being relatively stronger during calmer stock market periods) are also corroborated by analyses conducted at the daily frequency based on an augmented heterogeneous autoregressive model of realised volatility (HAR-RV) and a multivariate k-th order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles framework. Our results have important implications both for investors and policymakers.     

金融化、财政激励与企业投资结构

财政激励政策对企业投资结构的调整具有重要影响。实证研究结果表明,财政激励政策会促使企业选择提升权益性投资比重,且这种促进作用具有递减倾向。其中,税收返还和财政贴息会显著促进企业权益性投资比重升高,研发补贴则会促进企业固定资产投资比重升高。进一步以企业融资效率为中介变量进行检验发现,财政激励可以通过提升企业融资效率进而促使企业提升权益性投资比重。因此,在利用财政激励政策工具调节企业投资结构时,应充分考虑企业金融化水平,以避免企业投资结构出现失衡。     

Time-varying impact of monetary policy shocks on US stock returns: The role of investor sentiment

This paper investigates how monetary policy shock affects the stock market of the United States (US) conditional on states of investor sentiment. In this regard, we use a recently developed estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks, which in turn is achieved by integrating the current short-term rate surprises, which are least affected by an information effect, into a vector autoregressive (VAR) model as an exogenous variable. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, we find that, compared to the low investor sentiment regime, the negative reaction of stock returns to contractionary monetary policy shocks is stronger in the state associated with relatively higher investor sentiment. Our results are robust to alternative sample period (which excludes the zero lower bound) and model specification and also have important implications for academicians, investors, and policymakers.     

环境信息披露质量影响债务融资成本吗？——来自我国环境敏感型行业上市公司的经验证据

环境信息披露是银行评估企业或项目环境风险的重要信息来源。以我国环境敏感型行业2011—2016年上市公司为研究对象,采用固定效应模型实证分析环境信息披露质量对企业债务融资成本的影响,结果显示企业环境信息披露质量对债务融资成本的降低作用不显著;将环境信息分为货币性和非货币性信息,发现货币性环境信息披露的质量对降低债务融资成本有显著影响。如何提高非货币性环境信息的作用是未来值得关注的问题。     

The Influence of the Keiretsu on Japanese Corporate Disclosure

This paper represents a contribution to testing whether the extent of disclosure in Japanese corporate annual reports varies according to group structure. Consideration is given to keiretsu (group interfirm networks) classification and the mechanism for monitoring by a main bank or main company. This topic is of interest because the Japanese system of corporate governance is fundamentally different from those prevailing in Anglo-Saxon countries and this distinction may impact on corporate disclosure policy. Attention is focused on the exclusionary theory of corporate disclosure in which information is disseminated within group members but specifically excludes others. Regression analysis is undertaken to assess the importance of group structure in explaining variability in the extent of disclosure after controlling for known factors such as size, stock market listing, industry, borrowings, and type of business. The results suggest that companies within a keiretsu with a main-bank or main-company monitor and which are therefore less subject to capital market discipline do not disclose less information than other companies in their annual reports. It appears that whatever type of corporate governance mechanism is adopted in Japan there exists a monitor that places approximately equal demands on information disclosure in corporate annual reports.     

Stabilizing expectations at the zero lower bound: Experimental evidence

Our study demonstrates how agents’ expectations can interact dynamically with monetary and fiscal policy at the zero lower bound. We study expectation formation near the zero lower bound using a learning-to-forecast laboratory experiment under alternative policy regimes. In our experimental economy, monetary policy targets inflation around a constant or state-dependent target. We find that subjects’ expectations significantly over-react to stochastic aggregate demand shocks and historical information, leading many economies to experience severe deflationary traps. Neither quantitatively nor qualitatively communicating the state-dependent inflation targets reduce the duration or severity of economic crises. Introducing anticipated and persistent fiscal stimulus at the zero lower bound reduces the severity of the recessions. When the recovery of fundamentals is sufficiently slow, participants’ expectations become highly pessimistic and neither monetary nor fiscal policy are effective at stabilizing the economy.     

不同资本账户开放程度下的中国财政货币政策效果分析

研究目标：分析不同资本账户开放程度下的中国财政货币政策效果及福利效应。研究方法：将内生化的政府支出（税收）政策以及包含汇率的价格（数量）型为主的混合货币政策一并纳入一个小型开放的DSGE模型。研究发现：随着资本账户的逐步放开,财政政策方面,减税政策刺激经济增长和促进就业的效果越来越好,政府支出政策刺激经济增长和促进就业的效果越来越差;货币政策方面,国内货币政策的调控效果及利率上升的跨期替代效应减弱。从社会福利损失的角度分析表明：无论是与内生化的政府支出（税收）政策组合还是与财政赤字政策组合,价格型为主的混合货币政策始终优于数量型为主的混合货币政策。研究创新：考察在高、中和低三种资本账户开放背景下中国不同财政货币政策组合的相互作用和经济效应。研究价值：为资本账户放开过程中合理地使用财政货币政策组合提供理论参考。     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock market sector time-varying spillover effect: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the volatility spillover effect among the Chinese economic policy uncertainty index, stock markets, gold and oil by employing the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. Three main results are obtained. Firstly, the optional consumption, industry, public utility and financial sectors are systemically important during the sample period. Secondly, among the four policy uncertainties, the uncertainty of fiscal policy and trade policy contributes more to the spillover effect, while the uncertainty of monetary policy and exchange rate policy contributes less to the spillover effect. Thirdly, during COVID-19, oil spillovers from other sources dropped rapidly to a very low point, it also had a significant impact on the net volatility spillover of the stock market. This paper can provide policy implication for decision-makers and reasonable risk aversion methods for investors.     

The Conduct of Monetary Policy Without Monetary Aggregates

A central dilemma for the monetary authorities is how to determine monetary policy. The increasing unreliability of monetary aggregates has led over the past few years to less concern for monetary targeting, both in the UK and elsewhere, and a greater influence for the exchange rate on monetary policy. But in the UK, most recently, there has been a move away from setting monetary policy in relation to the exchange rate and external considerations in favour of setting monetary policy in relation to domestic demand. Not surprisingly, this shift has occurred at a time of rising concern about domestic overheating. It illustrates the dilemma of whether monetary policy should be driven by domestic demand considerations or by external, exchange rate considerations. This dilemma is not just confined to the UK for it is a real source of conflict underlying the Louvre Accord and its successors that seek to determine G7 exchange rates in a cooperative manner. In what follows, we argue that exchange rate developments should have an appreciable influence on monetary policy, since this is helpful in attaining stable inflation. But we also suggest that this influence should not go too far, since this stability of inflation may be at the expense of stability of domestic demand and output. Targeting of exchange rates within narrow bands is unlikely to be desirable, unless fiscal policy can be used more flexibly to stabilize domestic demand. This suggests that, in the period up to the spring, the use of monetary policy to hold the £/JDM exchange rate within narrow limits may have been overdone. More seriously, international exchange rate agreements among the G7 countries are likely to founder under adverse market pressures, unless current imbalances in fiscal policy are adjusted. In the absence of greater flexibility in fiscal policy, policy makers will have to trade off domestic and exchange rate considerations in determining monetary policy. An important outstanding issue that needs further consideration is what indicators should be used for monetary policy, in a world in which monetary aggregates provide unreliable signals.