The Effects of Criminal Experience on the Incidence of Crime

A bstract . A hypothesis has been analyzed that criminals learn by doing, that with experience criminals increase their activity so that with level outlays on police the incidence of crime may be increasing. This hypothesis is tested by statistical analysis of time series cross sectional data on crime levels, police outlays and various socioeconomic variables. The results confirm that "learning by doing"—accumulating criminal experience—increases criminal activity, that police outlays have a negative and significant effect on crime and that certain socioeconomic characteristics have a significant effect on crime.     

Crime Rates,Clearance Rates and Enforcement Effort: The Case of Houston,Texas*

Abstract . Two time series relationships with respect to police and criminal activities are analyzed. These relationships are: 1. That between police input and police output where the latter was measured by arrest and convictions rates and the former by expenditures and number of officers and, 2. The hypothetical one between the probability of arrest (the clearance ratio; i.e., the proportion of reported crimes for which arrests were made) and crime rates. Theoretically, an increase in expenditures for police effort would cause an increase in the clearance rate and a concomitant reduction in the crime rate. The results of this study showed little or no response in clearance and crime rates to small changes in police expenditures. However, there was evidence that large changes in police effort did produce some response in both clearance and crime rates. The implication of these findings was that the marginal product of police input was small.     

Municipal costs and urban area

There are plausible reasons for believing that municipal service system costs will increase with urban “sprawl.” The costs of several municipal systems were thus analyzed, namely: water; sewage; roads and highways (capital outlays only); police, fire, and park systems; electricity distribution; gas distribution; and telephone service. The statistical relation between urban area and urban costs was weaker than a priori beliefs might suggest. Capital outlays for public municipal systems increase only about 1.6% for every 10% increment in land area. Public municipal operating costs, and the capital and operating costs of private utility systems are practically unaffected by urban area.     

International real interest rate equalization. A multivariate time-series approach

This paper investigates the dynamic behaviour of monthly ex post real interest rates from several countries over the period 1980 to 1991. It is found that real interest rates are stationary over this period and that deviations from real interest parity are significant in the short run but disappear in the long run. The latter evidence is established using the concept of co-dependent time series proposed by Gourieroux and Peaucelle (1989) for the analysis of multivariate stationary time series.     

The deterrence hypothesis revisited

This study explores the causes of crime and the differences in deterrent effects of policing on crimes among rural, suburban, and urban communities. We hypothesize that certain numbers of all crimes are unaffected by policing due to their high net return; policing deters only marginal crimes. That is, unlike other research efforts, we recognize that there is a level of crime indigenous to a given type of community about which little can be done, although a particular community can affect deviations from this level. By introducing this ‘natural rate' of crime we are able to empirically reveal the deterrence effect of police expenditures upon all types of property crimes except robberies. The study analyzes 230 communities in a system of six simultaneous equations, using police, crime, and other socio-economic variables. The model can be used by state and regional policy-makers to more effectively allocate resources to the different types of communities under their jurisdiction and among the various police functions designed to deter specific types of crime.     

Crime in One Long-Lived Comic Strip: An Evaluation of Chester Gould's Dick Tracy'

Abstract . A six-months run of the popular and long-lived newspaper cartoon, “Dick Tracy,” was analyzed in terms of the frequency with which certain characters were used, the location and setting in which they appeared and the criminal activity and law enforcement technique portrayed. Also studied were physical characteristics of criminals and police, and the use of violence. The results indicated the continued theme of the cartoonist, Chester Gould, was a “morality play,”i.e., the triumph of good over evil. All pictured criminals were either apprehended or killed as a result of police expertise, and police violence was both minimal and reactive. However, contrary to similar analyses of primetime television, the majority of offenses pictured were crimes against the American economic system, rather than violent crime, and offenders were disproportionately White, middle-aged males.     

Long‐run neutrality of demand shocks: Revisiting Blanchard and Quah (1989) with independent structural shocks

With reference to a stylized theoretical macromodel, Blanchard and Quah (American Economic Review, 1989, 79, 655–673) identify empirical aggregate supply (e.g., productivity) and demand shocks by assuming that the latter are neutral for economic activity in the long run. Taking advantage of recent contributions to the structural VAR literature and data‐based identification, we find that effects of unique independent non‐Gaussian structural shocks support this assumption. Moreover, unlike the results in Blanchard and Quah, statistically identified supply shocks exhibit (insignificantly) opposite impacts on gross domestic product and unemployment in the short run. In comparison with benchmark results obtained under assumed long‐run neutrality, statistical identification points to a stronger role of aggregate supply shocks for shaping temporary profiles of US unemployment during the recessionary period 1973:Q3–1975:Q1.     

A study of measuring influence of advertising and forecasting cigarette sales

This study investigated the effect of advertising on cigarette sales, particularly after 1967. Data were collected using sources of the Statistical abstract of the U.S., the Historical Statistics of the U.S. and Vital Statistics between 1955 and 1979. A multiple regression model was used to analyze the data. Cigarette consumption was used as a dependent variable. Disposable Income, Death Rate due to cancer of the respiratory system/total cancer death, advertising outlays for cigarettes: Newspapers and television advertisement/total advertising cost, cigarette-production (including long and regular sizes), sales outlets, loyalty/total loyalty, average price for cigarettes and a dummy variable were used as independent variables. Analysis revealed that there is a significant negative relationship between cigarette-consumption and total cancer death and average prices on the one hand, and a significant positive association between loyalty and cigarette consumption on the other. Although advertising expenditures are not statistically significant, increased spending on advertising has an increasing effect on cigarette-consumption.     

An Analysis of the Convergence of the Composition of Public Expenditures in European Union Countries

The literature on fiscal policies is paying increasing attention to the impact of the composition of public expenditures on long‐term economic growth. Public policy endogenous growth models recommend to change the composition of public expenditures to items considered productive expenditures. In this sense, European institutions are encouraging the rise in the share of productive outlays like public investments, R&D, and active labor market policies, among others. The article analyzes whether these recommendations are followed by European Union countries and whether a convergence to a new pattern of public finances with a higher share of those items considered productive expenditures by European institutions is arising.     

Lethal Police Response as a Crime Deterrent:

A bstract . Since Gary Becker's article on the economics of crime and punishment , economists have explored extensively the possible deterrence effect of standard enforcement variables , not only for their public policy implications but to test the hypothesis that illegitimate behavior is sensitive to measures of risk and reward (loss) as well as social, psychological and cultural forces. Research has been needed on the probability of death to the offender caused by official police action—"lethal response." To measure the criminal reaction to intercity variations in the rate of civilian killings of police in the line of duty, a cross-sectional study of 57 cities was undertaken. Variations in non-homicide violent crime rate were found to be inversely related to variations in the intercity lethal response rate. this suggests the presence of a deterrence effect, a one Sixth of one percent decrease in the rate of non-homicide violent crime being associated with a one percent increase in the lethal response rate.     

Fractional integration in daily stock market indices at Jordan's Amman stock exchange

Using daily data on five sectoral indices from 2006 to 2014, this paper aims to investigate the possibility of fractional integration in sectoral returns (and their volatility measures) at Jordan's Amman stock exchange (ASE). Empirical analysis, using the log-periodogram (LP) and local whittle (LW) based semi-parametric fractional differencing techniques suggest that all sectoral returns at ASE exhibit short memory. However, in the case of volatility measures, we found evidence of long memory. Following the recent literature that argues that structural breaks in a time series could also explain the presence of long memory, we tested the volatility measures for the presence of structural breaks. We found that long memory in some volatility measures could be attributed to the presence of structural breaks. Furthermore, using impulse response functions (IRF) based on ARFIMA, we found that shocks to sectoral returns at ASE exhibit short run persistence, whereas shocks to volatility measures display long run persistence.     

Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?

Studies in the economics of crime literature have reached mixed conclusions on the deterrence hypothesis. One explanation that has been offered for the failure to find evidence of a deterrent effect in the long run is the natural rate of crime. This article applies univariate unit root tests to crime series for the United Kingdom and United States and panel unit roots to crime rates for a panel of G7 countries to examine whether there is a natural rate of crime. Our main finding is that when we allow for two structural breaks in the univariate unit root test and a structural break in the panel data unit root test, there is strong evidence of a natural rate of crime. The policy implications of our findings is that governments should focus on altering the economic and social structural profile that determines crime in the long run rather than increasing expenditure on law enforcement that will at best reduce crime rates in the short run.     

Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption,environmental degradation and economic growth in Tunisia

The aim of this document is to investigate the dynamic relationship between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in Tunisia over the period 1990–2015. Unit root tests and co-integration test was used in order to detect the order of stationary and to test the existence long run links between the used variables. We apply the Granger causality test and VECM model to discover the short and long run links between the variables. Results have shown a bidirectional causal relationship between energy use and CO₂ emissions. Economic growth affects CO₂ emission in the short and long run. While there is a unidirectional links running from energy use to economic growth at short run. The paper shares best practices from Tunisia in terms of efficient use of renewable energy policy enablers, which may be contextualized in other emerging economies in order to keep sustainability and to achieve the green economy.     

Predicting the geo-temporal variations of crime and disorder

Traditional police boundaries—precincts, patrol districts, etc.—often fail to reflect the true distribution of criminal activity and thus do little to assist in the optimal allocation of police resources. This paper introduces methods for crime incident forecasting by focusing upon geographical areas of concern that transcend traditional policing boundaries. The computerised procedure utilises a geographical crime incidence-scanning algorithm to identify clusters with relatively high levels of crime (hot spots). These clusters provide sufficient data for training artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of modelling trends within them. The approach to ANN specification and estimation is enhanced by application of a novel and noteworthy approach, the Gamma test (GT).     

Optimal expenditures on police protection

The object of this paper is to propose an approach for operationalizing Rubin's (Minimizing Harm: a New Crime Policy for modern America, Westview Press, Boulder, CO, 1999) idea that minimizing harm is a solution to the crime policy conundrum. Harm is defined to be the total cost of damages due to crime plus the cost of police protection. Its minimization determines optimal expenditures for protection. This is an appropriate basis for specifying the optimal size of a police force, and provides a term of reference for actual policy decisions. Data for the states of the US are used to make the presentation more concrete and to clarify some of the problems that must be solved in actual applications of the method suggested. This does not eliminate the applicability of the approach to any other country or to the geo-political subdivisions within a country. The results obtained are of interest to policy makers dealing specifically with expenditures for police at local, regional or national levels or, more generally, with similar uses of public or private financial resources.     

state Lotteries and Crime

A bstract . The impact of having a state lottery on the rate of crime against property in that state is estimated. Arguments in the standard economic model of criminal activity employed here include the unemployment rate, real income per capita, presence of the death penalty in the state as a proxy for general severity of punishment , police officers per capita, the percentage of population between the ages of 5 and 24, and the presence of a state lottery. Because the decision of a state to operate a lottery may correlate with crime rates, a selectivity model was run to extract any bias, but no such bias was found. The analysis used data for the 50 states plus the District of Columbia from 1970 through 1984. The results suggest that presence of a state lottery is associated with a crime rate higher by about 3 percent, an effect both statistically significant and practically important.     

The Long Run Problem of Financing the Social Security System

Abstract . The Social Security Amendments of 1972 radically altered the Social Security System (SSS) by including, among other things, provisions whereby the taxable wage base would thereafter rise with increases in the average U.S. wage level and benefits would rise with increases in the Consumer Price Index. These provisions, in fact, have so affected the magnitude of present and potential future social security benefit payments that today, in spite of the restoration of short-run financial viability, the very financial solvency of the system over the long run is at issue. In an attempt to understand this financial solvency problem, three questions are examined: 1) how are social security benefits calculated today; 2) how have the underlying principles of the SSS changed recently; and 3) what does the future of the SSS look like? The results of that examination leave little doubt that the SSS must again be changed significantly if its long run financial solvency is to be restored, but President Carter's recent recommendations for change appear to be only a temporary solution to a long run problem.     

Modeling the effects of grade retention in high school

A dynamic discrete‐choice model is set up to estimate the effects of grade retention in high school, both in the short run (end‐of‐year evaluation) and in the long run (drop‐out and delay). In contrast to other evaluation approaches, this model captures essential treatment heterogeneity and controls for grade‐varying unobservable determinants. In addition, forced track downgrading is considered as an alternative remedial measure. Our results indicate that grade retention has a neutral effect on academic achievement in the short run. In the long run, grade retention, just like forced downgrading, has adverse effects on schooling outcomes and, more so, for less able pupils.     

Are the stock and real estate markets integrated in China?

This paper examines the dynamic short-run and long-run co-movement between the real estate and stock markets in China by employing a continuous wavelet method. We use gross domestic product and M2 (broad money supply) as control variables to eliminate the common factors of the two markets and to identify the real nexus between them. The empirical results show that the co-movement between real estate and stock prices is weak in the short run, except during the financial crisis period. Since the stock market is highly volatile, while real estate prices are relatively stable, the two markets are less correlated in the short run. The results also show that real estate prices affect stock prices in the long run, which supports the existence of a credit-price effect in China. Real estate prices remained very high in most time periods. Enterprises and individuals can obtain funds from bank loans to invest in the stock market, thus raising stock prices. These findings indicate that the two markets are generally segmented in the short run but are integrated in the long run. The stabilization of the real estate market is critical for stability in the stock market, but not vice versa. Additionally, investments in the two markets may not provide a high level of risk dispersion in the long run in China.

     

Applied nonlinear dynamical system in social science. A nonlinear model for social control system: an application to Italian coercion system

Does an increase in police strength discourage an increase in crime levels? It would seem very likely so, despite the many platitudes common everywhere, even in the most serious literature on the subject. This research study, using Non-Linear Analysis on the Italian crime situation from 1985 to 2003, shows an almost non controvertible result. The police force really does seem to have a deterrence function on crime, particularly evident from the 90s on, where, as police strength increases, the number of crimes decrease. One of the most interesting aspects deriving from the non-linear model used, is the specific measurement of the number of crimes that might have been committed and that were not in virtue of the deterrent action of the Police Force. Up to now, such an acquisition seems to be lacking from other so called ‘traditional’ research, where such ‘indirect’ deterrence appears easily hypothesized, but impossible to determine. For this reason too, the adoption of a non-linear analysis logic shows its heuristic superiority able to shed light on certain aspects that in other analysis models would remain in the shadows.