Wages and Other Determinants of Corruption

Raising wages has commonly been viewed as an anticorruption policy by policymakers from both governments and multilateral development organizations. Conventional wisdom and recent theoretical work suggest that low wages encourage corruption. Nevertheless, the empirical studies done on the wage– corruption tradeoff are econometric estimates that find no conclusive support for the effectiveness of increasing wages as an anticorruption measure. The unique contributions of this paper are the application of an expected utility model to explain the emergence of corruption, and the use of comparative static results that are consistent with the empirical evidence and useful for the design of anticorruption policies. The most important result from the expected utility model is that anticorruption policies designed to increase the net income of potentially corrupt agents not only may be ineffective but may actually encourage corruption.     

股票指数:期货价格与现货价格的领先-滞后关系

股指期货出现后,国际金融市场出现了一个重要的研究领域,即股票指数期货价格和现货价格的关系问题。这不但是一个理论问题,而且是一个实证问题,国外学者对此进行了大量的研究。研究的焦点之一是这两个价格是否具有领先—滞后关系(lead-leg relationship)。     

城市间住宅土地价格差异的决定因素——基于衍生需求模型的实证研究

随着城市土地市场的逐渐形成,住宅土地价格在城市间表现出巨大的差异.通过构建一个关于城市问住宅土地价格差异的衍生需求模型,对浙江省29个城市2004年出让的425宗住宅土地数据对模型进行了验证.结果表明城市房地产业从业人数、城市房地产投资额、人均持有流动资产水平、城市人口结构是导致城市间住宅土地价格差异的主要因素,这四个变量可以解释城市闻住宅土地价格差异的86.40%.     

Adopting a Unit Pricing System for Municipal Solid Waste: Policy and Socio-Economic Determinants

Concerns about the environmental and aesthetic damages of municipal solid waste pollution have triggered policy reform at all levels of government. As part of this effort, public officials are integrating market-based policy instruments such as unit pricing into their solid waste plans. Despite the economic advantages of unit pricing, constituency response has been mixed and hence adoption rates have been below expectations. If the associated gains are to be realized, public officials must identify the key factors that influence this decision. To that end, this research empirically estimates the determinants of unit pricing adoption at the community level of analysis. Based on data for all cities and towns in Massachusetts, the results indicate that demographics, socio-economic attributes, fiscal capacity, and policy instruments influence this decision.     

Measuring Socio-Economic GENDER Inequality: Toward an Alternative to the UNDP Gender-Related Development Index

This paper assesses the United Nations Development Program’s (UNDP) Gender-Related Development Index (GDI). Although the GDI has increased attention on gender equality in human development, it suffers from several limitations. A major problem is that it conflates relative gender equality with absolute levels of human development and thus gives no information on comparative gender inequality among countries. Using the same indicators as the GDI, the paper constructs a Relative Status of Women (RSW) index, which demonstrates how using a measure of gender equality that abstracts from levels of development results in very different country rankings. However, the RSW is not an ideal measure of gender inequality. The GDI indicators are not the most appropriate ones for measuring gender inequality and hence both the RSW and the GDI have limited validity. The paper concludes by offering a conceptual framework that provides the basis for an alternative measure of gender inequality.     

Patterns and Determinants of Price Changes: Analysing Individual Consumer Prices in Austria

Abstract. We provide empirical evidence on the degree and characteristics of price stickiness in Austria by estimating the average frequency of price changes and the duration of price spells from a large dataset of individual price records collected for the computation of the Austrian consumer price index. The mean (median) duration of price spells in Austria amounts to 14 (11) months, but there is considerable heterogeneity across sectors and products. We find that price increases occur only slightly more often than price decreases. For both directions, the average magnitude of price changes is quite large (11% and 14%, respectively). The introduction of the euro cash in January 2002 led to more frequent but, on average, smaller price adjustments than usual. Estimating the probability of a price change in a panel probit model, we find a small but positive effect of the price spell duration on the incidence of price changes. Furthermore, product‐specific inflation, the size and the sign of the last price change and the period of the euro introduction significantly affect the probability of a price change.     

我国商品期货价格指数与宏观经济指标关系的实证研究简

通过考察我国商品期货价格指数与主要宏观经济变量之间的相互影响关系,发现商品期货价格指数对物价、国内生产总值、利率、人民币汇率均有明显的引导作用和直接影响,并且能够领先CPI指标约5-7个月。商品期货价格指数作为CPI的先行指标具有一定的可行性。     

Fundamental Determinants of Real Estate Prices: A Panel Study of German Regions

This paper aims at establishing empirical facts on the fundamental determinants of real estate prices. It contributes to the literature by analysing a unique panel dataset covering a wide range of real estate market data and other economic variables for nearly 100 German cities. Several robust fundamental determinants are identified, among them the supply-side factors of construction activity and housing stock as well as the demand-side factors of apartment rents, market size, age structure, local infrastructure and rental prices. Results suggest that these factors are robustly linked to fundamental real estate prices and thus can be used to detect misalignments of market prices.     

The Determinants of Sticky Prices and Sticky Plans: Evidence from German Business Survey Data

So far, there is no consensus on the price adjustment determinants in the empirical literature. Analyzing a novel firm‐level business survey data set, we provide new insights on the price setting behavior of German retailers during a low inflation period. Relating the probability of both price and pricing plan adjustment to time‐ and state‐dependent variables, we find that state‐dependence is important; the macroeconomic environment as well as the firm‐specific condition significantly determines the timing of both actual price changes and pricing plan adjustments. Moreover, input cost changes are important determinants of price setting. Finally, price increases respond more strongly to cost shocks compared to price decreases.     

农村居民医疗消费支出影响因素分析

文章采用中国1999—2014年的省际面板数据,运用双向固定效应模型分析我国农村居民医疗消费支出影响因素。估计结果表明:政府医疗卫生支出、老年抚养比、少儿抚养比、医疗消费价格指数均与农村居民医疗消费支出正相关。而GDP增长率、农村居民人均纯收入与农村居民医疗消费支出显著负相关。     

A Further Analysis of Determinants of Health Insurance Coverage

This study uses state-level data to identify key factors influencing geographic differentials in the percentage of the population without health insurance coverage, with particular emphasis placed on the impact of the percentage of the population that is either self-employed or independent contractors. Not surprisingly, the cross-section analysis finds that the percentage of a state's population without health insurance was a decreasing function of median family income in the state, the female labor force participation rate in the state, and the percentage of the state's population age 65 and older, while being an increasing function of the percentage of households in the state with only a female head of household present (no husband present) and the percent of the state's population classified as Hispanic. Reflecting the emphasis in this study, the empirical estimates all also reveal that the percentage of a state's population without health insurance is an increasing the percentage of the state's population that filed a federal personal income tax return that included a Schedule C, which is used in this study as a proxy for self-employment and independent contractors.     

中国商品期货价格指数对货币政策效果监控的参考价值

已有的实证研究表明,我国商品期货价格指数能够在一定程度上反映主要宏观经济指标的变动情况。商品期货价格指数不但能够在数值水平上领先GDP和CPI,在波动幅度上对CPI也具有一定的预示作用。本文经过理论推导和实证分析,分析了当货币供应量发生变化时,商品期货价格指数如何预先反映经济增长和通胀水平的变动方向和幅度,论证了在监控货币政策对实体经济影响效果方面商品期货价格指数的参考价值,从而在新的维度上刻画了其对于货币政策的参考意义。     

The Cost of Living with the RPI: Substitution Bias in the UK Retail Prices Index

This paper uses revealed preference restrictions and nonparametric statistical methods to bound the true cost-of-living index which corresponds most closely to the UK Retail Prices Index (RPI). This is used to assess the RPI formula for substitution bias. We show that neither the direction nor the existence of bias in the RPI forumla can be established on a priori theoretical grounds. However, we find empirical evidence of a variable, but generally positive bias in the rate of inflation recorded by the RPI formula.     

Quantifying Bias and Inaccuracy of Upper-Level Aggregation in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for Germany and the Euro Area

Current measurement practices of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) produce an upward bias of about one-ninth of a percentage point in German inflation due to changing consumption being disregarded and preliminary data being used in the compilation of expenditure weights. The statistical uncertainty produced by these sources of mismeasurement can be illustrated by an interdecile range of about one-quarter of a percentage point. The annual updating of the quantity component of the weights, implemented in 2012, has reduced the substitution component, making the disregard of changing consumption virtually a non-issue for the euro area HICP. The measurement of the German HICP is impaired by the extrapolation of expenditure weights. The use of preliminary national accounts data since 2012 has not led to an improvement. This source of mismeasurement is likely to be relevant for the euro area HICP as well but cannot be quantified due to data constraints.     

地方财政卫生支出的影响因素研究

本文利用中国31个省市区1997~2009的面板数据,研究了经济因素、人口因素以及卫生资源因素对地方财政卫生支出的影响。采用固定效应模型的估计结果表明,不同因素对地方财政卫生支出的影响存在较大差异,其中,经济因素是影响卫生支出最重要的因素。我国地方财政卫生支出的收入弹性为0.54,这表明卫生服务是正常物品,而不是奢侈品,地方政府应加大卫生支出的财政投入。     

Analysing the Performance of Firms Using a Decomposable Ideal Index Number to Link Profit, Prices and Productivity

This article reviews an index number framework that links changes in aggregate performance measures (such as profit, revenue, cost and total factor productivity) to changes in both the prices and quantities of key outputs and inputs. The framework provides a way of linking the aggregate performance measures to outcomes for individual customer groups, employees and owners of businesses. This information is useful to policy makers in evaluating the outcomes of economic reform, including the distributional consequences. It is also useful to regulators who need to understand and monitor both the consequences of their regulation and the response to their decisions by those being regulated. The article demonstrates that the logarithmic version of Fisher's Ideal index offers a useful way of integrating changes in profit, productivity and prices into a single analysis. The usefulness of the framework is illustrated by applying it to a data set for Australian National.     

Revisiting the Link Between Stock Prices and Goods Prices in OECD Countries

Fisher hypothesis postulates positive relation between stock return and inflation; however early studies document negative relationship between the two and they conclude that stock cannot be used as a hedge against inflation. In this paper we explore long‐run nonlinear relationship between stock price and goods price. Our sample consists of 19 OECD countries; all or some of these countries have been studied before with the findings of linear cointegration between the stock index and goods price index. Based on unit root tests and linear cointegration test, we apply threshold cointegration tests, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test and panel VAR method. With all these econometric methods we arrive at heterogeneous findings as follows: two countries have linear cointegration, five countries have threshold cointegration, nine countries do not have any cointegration and finally two countries provide inconclusive results. Estimates of Fisher coefficient provided by linear and nonlinear cointegration methods, which range between 1.27 and 1.86, are consistent with previous studies. Impulse response analysis from panel VAR for countries having no cointegrating relation shows that shock to inflation produces negative response in stock return, which supports findings of earlier studies.