Risk management of real estate: The case of real estate swaps

Real estate swaps are a recent financial innovation based upon the principle of comparative advantage. A real estate swap is a useful tool for real estate risk management and for participating in real estate investment without the high costs associated with real estate. Potential economic benefits and costs associated with real estate swaps are considered and real estate swaps are compared to alternative tools for real estate risk management. The expected utility and effectiveness of risk management with a swap in a multiperiod framework are analyzed. The analysis finds that the subject property's return and its risk characteristics (as reflected in its correlation with interest rate and property index returns) delimit the risk management potential of a given swap position. Optimal swap positions are shown for various regions and property types based on historical return series, from the period between 1983 and 1992, and the parameters of the dynamic model developed.     

The risk organisation: or how organisations reconcile themselves to failure

Over the last decade, the ideas, concepts and tools of risk management have colonised the way that organisations frame potential adverse outcomes associated with their activities. Intended as a means of optimising the tolerance, rather than elimination, of adverse organisational outcomes, risk management has been promoted as a means of challenging organisational practice, particularly in the context of heightened accountability pressures that can readily make organisations risk averse. Relatively little attention, however, has been paid to the extent to which risk ideas are able to challenge traditional organisational ways of understanding and responding to adverse outcomes. In this article, therefore, we examine the implementation of risk management practices in two contrasting organisational contexts; the UK Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the English university sector. Our studies suggest that risk management processes can be readily filtered and reinterpreted through a series of ideological, methodological and organisational mechanisms to reflect and reinforce organisational understandings and practices. We build on this analysis to point to what might tentatively be termed ‘Risk Organizations’, which are distinctive, at least in principle, by the way in which they seek to identify, but also come to terms with, failure. As such, rather than providing a means of organisational challenge, the systematic application of risk management practices tends to act as a conservative force of organisational continuity.     

Complexity,uncertainty and future risks

Roger Kasperson’s paper prompts us to reflect on whether traditional risk communication tools and approaches might be inadequate for many of the tasks now emerging. One can point to the increasingly complex nature of some technological and environmental hazards; the need to scrutinise emerging technologies upstream of significant applications; and fundamental changes to risk identities within society. Perhaps, we now genuinely face a risk society, exemplified by the dysfunction of global financial systems, extreme inequalities and encroaching environmental threats, alongside the unwinding of traditional social identities? Strategic capacity to address many of these fundamental risk challenges is lacking.     

Enhancing risk management for an aging world

As the world confronts unprecedented global aging, academics and policymakers are growing increasingly aware of the need for better risk management tools to handle the demographic transition. It is therefore imperative to identify innovative insurance and financial market products that can enrich the range of options for households, firms, and governments facing the challenge of an aging population. After outlining thoughts on how rising longevity might shape financial markets, we discuss opportunities for the finance and insurance industries in this arena. We also highlight how policymakers could respond to improve efforts to better manage risk.     

Risk assessments at the Royal Netherlands Air Force: an explorative study

In this paper, differences in the assessment of mission risks and mission benefits between operators and members of the management level in the transport helicopter branch of the Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF) are studied. Results were obtained from a risk analysis that was conducted in accordance with RNLAF procedures. The analysis suggests that the two organizational levels have a coherent perception on risks despite their hierarchical position. Perceived measures of control – controllability – seem to induce the inclusion or the exclusion of what is appeared to be a risk. The analysis also suggests that risk management tools may obscure these perceptual differences. Risk management tools may therefore not be sufficient to attain safe operations. In discussions and future studies on risk management and on hierarchical differences in risk perception, this is something to take well notice of. Also, managers and others involved in risk management need to recognize the implications of using risk management instruments that are based on simplified models of risk. This research adds to the risk management theory because it connects multi-dimensional risk theory with actual organizational risk management practice.     

Culture, management accounting and managerial performance: Focus Iran

Modern management and control systems may not be equally effective in every country. Budget participation is one of the effective tools in western nations. However, management control tools, in general, and budget participation, in particular, could be ineffective or even dysfunctional in other environments. Hofstede (1980) had suggested that cultural differences among countries are influencing factors. In this study, we investigate the impact of culture, budgetary participation, and management accounting systems on managerial performance in Iran. Three-way analyses of variance are used separately for each of the four cultural Hofstede dimensions. We find convincing evidence that the application of management tools and techniques developed in western countries for effective management performance is not as useful in the Iranian context.     

Dementia screening using computerized tests

The preclinical phase of dementia usually precedes the clinical diagnosis by many years. Early detection of dementing conditions during this preclinical phase may provide opportunities for treatments that may slow or mitigate progression. Conventional assessment tools usually can only detect dementia when the symptoms are overt and the disease is well-established. Computerized neurocognitive screening tools hold promise for diagnosing dementia in its early phase. The use, performance and development of several computerized screening tools to diagnose and monitor patients with pre-dementias and dementia are reviewed. The ability to accurately assess the presence of dementia clearly has direct relevance to insurance risk assessment and risk management. As new treatments appear, their role in clinical management of dementia patients will increase as well. In a future issue, the differential diagnosis of dementias related to the findings on these screening tools will be reviewed.     

Domain-independent approach to risk reduction

Abstract

The popular domain-specific approach to risk reduction created the illusion that efficient risk reduction can be delivered successfully solely by using methods offered by the specific domain. As a result, many industries have been deprived of efficient risk reducing strategy and solutions. This paper argues that risk reduction is underlined by domain-independent methods and principles which, combined with knowledge from the specific domain, help to generate effective risk reduction solutions. In this respect, the paper introduces a powerful method for reducing the likelihood of computational errors based on combining the domain-independent method of segmentation and local knowledge of the chain rule for differentiation. The paper also demonstrates that lack of knowledge of domain-independent principles for risk reduction misses opportunities to reduce the risk of failure even in a mature field like stress analysis. The domain-independent methods for risk reduction do not rely on reliability data or knowledge of physical mechanisms underlying possible failure modes and are particularly well suited for developing new designs, with unknown failure mechanisms and failure history. In many cases, the reliability improvement and risk reduction by using the domain-independent methods reduces risk at no extra cost or at a relatively small cost. The presented domain-independent methods work across unrelated domains and this is demonstrated by the supplied examples which range from various areas of engineering and technology, computer science, project management, health risk management, business and mathematics. The domain-independent risk reduction methods presented in this paper promote building products and systems characterised by high-reliability and resilience.     

A framework for assessing the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks

Modern society depends on complex agro-ecological and trading systems to provide food for urban residents, yet there are few tools available to assess whether these systems are vulnerable to future disturbances. We propose a preliminary framework to assess the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks based on landscape ecology's ‘Panarchy Framework’. According to Panarchy, ecosystem vulnerability is determined by three generic characteristics: (1) the wealth available in the system, (2) how connected the system is, and (3) how much diversity exists in the system. In this framework, wealthy, non-diverse, tightly connected systems are highly vulnerable. The wealth of food systems can be measured using the approach pioneered by development economists to assess how poverty affects food security. Diversity can be measured using the tools investors use to measure the diversity of investment portfolios to assess financial risk. The connectivity of a system can be evaluated with the tools chemists use to assess the pathways chemicals use to flow through the environment. This approach can lead to better tools for creating policy designed to reduce vulnerability, and can help urban or regional planners identify where food systems are vulnerable to shocks and disturbances that may occur in the future.     

Risk perception and risk management in Norwegian aquaculture

This exploratory study seeks to provide empirical knowledge about fish farmers' risk attitudes, risk sources and risk management tools by presenting the results from a survey among Norwegian fish farming companies. The results show that fish farmers think of themselves as only moderately risk averse compared, for instance, to crop and livestock farmers. The most important sources of risk are considered to be future salmon prices, institutional risks and fish diseases, while keeping costs low is the most important risk management tool.     

Risk Management of Correlation Products

Trading units within the banking and dealer community that trade exotic instruments are well aware of the hazards of using traditional tools in analysing the risks resulting from positions taken in their specialised markets. The global risk management systems within these organisations have been slower to recognise the new risk profiles created by more recently traded exotic instruments. For traditional risks that are separable , the evaluation of risk at the individual trading units and the subsequent aggregation of risk across trading units captures the risks inherent in the portfolio. However, with non-traditional, non-separable risks, this division (by trading unit) and subsequent aggregation (by risk managers) of risks may obscure an increasing amount of risk found in the firm's trading operation.     

What effective general managers really do.

A rather large gap exists between the conventional wisdom on management functions, tools, and systems on the one hand and actual managerial behavior on the other. The former is usually discussed in terms of planning, controlling, staffing, organizing, and directing; the latter is characterized by long hours, fragmented episodes, and oral communication. Actual behavior, as a study of successful general managers shows, looks less systematic, more informal, less reflective, more reactive, less well organized, and more frivolous than a student of strategic planning systems, MIS, or organizational design would ever expect. The gap is important and disturbing for many reasons. First of all, it raises serious questions about the kind of formal planning, performance appraisal, and other systems that are commonly in use today. In a similar way, it raises questions about management education, which usually relies heavily on management "theory" and which is currently producing more than 60,000 new MBAs each year. Furthermore, the gap makes it difficult for executives to coach younger managers and makes it hard for them to know how they might improve their own effectiveness.     

An Empirical Test of the Impact of Managerial Self-Interest on Corporate Capital Structure

This paper provides a test of whether capital structure decisions are at least in part motivated by managerial self-interest. It is shown that the debt ratio is negatively related to management's shareholding, reflecting the greater nondiversifiable risk of debt to management than to public investors for maintaining a low debt ratio. Unless there is a nonmanagerial principal stockholder, no substantial increase of debt can be realized, which may suggest that the existence of large nonmanagerial stockholders might make the interests of managers and public investors coincide.     

Optimal regulation,executive compensation and risk taking by financial institutions

We present an equilibrium model of financial institutions to examine the optimal regulation of risk taking. Shareholders provide incentives for management to increase risk to excessive levels. Regulators use caps on asset risk and compensation to achieve the socially optimal risk level. This level trades off costs of risk shifting and costs of bank default. Without regulation, equilibrium risk lies above the optimal level. If information and enforcement are perfect, either policy tool (caps on asset risk or compensation) achieves the optimal risk level. If there are frictions – if enforcement is limited, if there is uncertainty about the incentives facing management and costs of risk shifting, or if regulation cannot be bank specific – welfare can be improved by employing both policy tools.     

A risk perspective supporting organizational efforts for achieving high reliability

Many industries and organizations are actively searching for approaches that can help them enhance the reliability of their operations and avoid mishaps. The concept of high reliability organizations (HROs) has been given considerable attention in this regard. HRO theorists have emphasized the process of mindfulness as a characteristic that allows for better interaction with risk and uncertainty, in order to minimize the potential for failures. From a risk management perspective however, it is not straightforward how to best proceed to obtain a mindful infrastructure which enables such capabilities. Various perspectives on risk and uncertainties exist, which call for different approaches and solutions. A key question studied in this paper is to what extent are traditional risk perspectives based on probability and historical data limited in their ability to support an HRO mindset for managing risk. The main purpose of the paper is to draw attention to an alternative risk perspective that replaces probability with uncertainty in the definition of risk, and to show how such a risk perspective can better support the implementation of HRO theory than the more traditional perspectives. We discuss the implications of such a shift in thinking – from focusing on probabilities to the broader domain of uncertainties regarding risk – for organizations that are seeking to improve their risk management capabilities and enhance the reliability of their operations.     

Active timing decisions of equity mutual funds

In this paper we examine an aspect of professional investment management which has not been adequately documented and studied; the extent to which equity mutual fund managers actively adjust their portfolio's equity risk exposure over time. Estimates of a portfolio's quarter-end beta are developed using the actual stock holdings of the portfolio at the quarter-end. Changes in these beta estimates from one quarter to the next are shown to arise from both passive and active asset allocation. We find that active risk adjustment dominates passive rebalancing and that equity risk exposure is quite variable over time. Thus, individual investors who estimate the equity risk inherent in a portfolio based on a single time series return beta might seriously misestimate the portfolio's current equity risk. We also test whether active risk management is better characterized as anticipatory of future market events or reactive to past market events.     

我国商业银行市场风险计量及波动性研究

本文结合巴塞尔委员会和我国监管当局对市场风险计量的规定,选取上市商业银行为样本,研究了我国上市商业银行风险计量的主要方式和特点,并分析了上市商业银行的市场波动性和系统性风险。分析主要结论为:(1)市场风险计量是市场风险管理的重要环节,风险计量模型的演变是从简单的风险计量发展到综合的风险收益计量的过程;(2)我国商业银行市场风险计量方式正在不断提高,风险价值分析和经济资本配置等方式正在逐步实施;(3)上市商业银行自身市场波动性较小,对于稳定资本市场起到了积极作用。     

What influences banks’ choice of credit risk management practices? Theory and evidence

Banks use different risk management practices with varying levels of sophistication. This paper examines the factors that determine the choice of risk-management practices. In a theoretical model, we identify two main determinants for the choice of risk management tools: bank competition and sector concentration in the loan market. We empirically test the predictions of our model using hand-collected data on the credit risk management of 249 German savings banks. The results are in line with our theory: Competition pushes banks to implement advanced risk management practices. Sector concentration in the loan market promotes credit portfolio modeling, but it inhibits credit risk transfer.     

Is it all about awareness? The normalization of coastal risk

Coastal risk is already high in several parts of the world and is expected to be amplified by climate change, which makes it necessary to outline effective risk management strategies. Risk managers assume that increasing awareness of coastal risk is the key to public support and endorsement of risk management strategies – an assumption that underlies a common worldview on the public understanding of science, which has been named the deficit model. We argue that the effects of awareness are not as straightforward. In particular, awareness of coastal hazards might not lead to more technically accurate risk perceptions. Based on research on risk perception normalization, we explored the hypothesis that coastal risk awareness reduces coastal risk perception – in particular the perceived likelihood of occurrence of coastal hazards – through its effect on reliance on protective measures to prevent risk. Individuals can rely on protective measures, even when those are not effective, as a positive illusion to reduce risk perception. This effect might be stronger for higher probability hazards and for permanent residents of costal zones. Data from 410 individuals living in coastal zones corroborated most of our expectations. Global results demonstrated a risk normalization effect mediated by reliance on current measures. Additional analyses made clear that this effect occurred in 2 of the 5 high-probability hazards (flood and storm), and not in the low-probability hazard (tsunami). Normalization might be more likely among high-probability hazards which entail catastrophic and immediate impacts. This effect was also found among permanent residents, but not among temporary residents. Results imply that coastal risk management might benefit from (a) taking risk perception normalization effects into account, (b) tailoring strategies for permanent and temporary residents and (c) promoting a higher public engagement, which would facilitate a more adaptive and effective coping with coastal risk than the use of positive illusions.