Technological forecasting and assessment: Science and/or mythology?

A number of radically distinct models (inquiry systems) are described. The models derive from C, West Churchman's recent characterization of the history of Western epistemology. It is argued that only a few of these models are appropriate for technological forecasting problems. Most technological forecasting methodologies rest on a dubious philosophical foundation. They unreflectively assume that the inquiry systems which are appropriate for “well-structured” problems are also appropriate for “ill structured” problems. It is argued that technological forecasting is an inherently ill-structured problem and therefore requires a methodology which is uniquely suited to such problems. The Dialectical and Singerian Inquiring Systems are proposed as particularly appropriate for ill-structured problems.     

Are environmental concerns drivers of innovation? Interpreting Portuguese innovation data to foster environmental foresight

The relationship between environmental concerns and innovation is analyzed in the context of Portuguese manufacturing firms, with the ultimate goal to foster measures of environmental foresight.Based on data from the Community Innovation Survey in Portugal, simple statistical tests, including Chi², t, and Levene's tests and contingency tables (adjusted standardized residuals), were used to study the relationship between firms' characteristics and the introduction of innovation aiming to reduce environmental damage. Environmental foresight is discussed based on three groups of variables that allow considering the industrial context that frames firm's actions, the economic performance of the firm and its innovation patterns.Results show that the development of innovation due to environmental concerns is positively associated with the firm's size and exports share, and negatively associated with its technological content. Moreover, it is shown that the firms that introduced innovations due to environmental concerns are likely to belong to an economic group, to have performed continuous R&D, or received public support. It is also shown that “lack of organizational flexibility” and “lack of receptivity by customers” are the two most relevant innovation barriers for these firms.     

A prospective on macrocybernetic process management systems

In an editorial in the February 1996 issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change Professor Linstone noted that “the rapid pace of technology has not been matched by the pace of human change.” Were we to drop our perspective a bit lower, a similarly troublesome imbalance within technology itself becomes apparent: the rapid rate of increase in the complexity of process-related technologies relative to the much slower rate of increase in the sophistication of process control systems. The conclusion at which most technological forecasts seem to arrive is that there will be a continuation—perhaps even an acceleration—of the trend toward more intricate and sweepingly extensive processes (production-related and otherwise). If so, there is the specter of a steadily increasing shortfall between requirements and capabilities, and hence the likelihood of even grander technological embarrassments. This article considers two ways in which this shortfall might be kept in check. Increases in the intricacy of processes can be met, and to a considerable extent are already being met, by exchanging conventional process control facilities for enhanced alternatives. Less certain is how expansions of project scope might best be accommodated. One possibility is to consider exchanging process control systems for broader-purview process management systems. Hence the focus in this article is on prospects for the development of macrocybernetic constructs.     

A note on the speculative demand for money

In the General Theory, Keynes argued that expectations about future bond prices tend to be “sticky”. A rise in bond prices causes more investors to “join the bear brigade” and so increases the aggregate demand for money. Since Tobin's classic article on liquidity preference, this explanation of the downward sloping demand for money curve has largely disappeared from the literature. This note introduces sticky expectations into the Tobin framework. It shows that the existence of such stickiness does not necessarily cause the demand for money to be more elastic because investors have expectations about the variance of future bond prices as well as about their mean. A sufficient condition for a more elastic demand for money under sticky expectations is that the Pratt-Arrow coefficient of relative risk aversion be either constant or decreasing in wealth.     

Technological generalizations and leitbilder—the anticipation of technological opportunities

Recent national technology foresight studies as well as the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University are very much based on “nodes of discussion.” These short statements are called, e.g., topics, issues, or developments. This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development. Key concepts of the article are “technological generalization” and “leitbild.” The topics in the technology foresight Delphi studies can be seen as different kinds of generalizations from already realized technological developments. Leitbild is a German word. Its most general meaning is a guiding image. Like a common vision, a leitbild creates a shared overall goal, offers orientation toward one long-term overall goal, and provides a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. The analysis of leitbilder and emerging technological paradigms might contribute to the construction of topics and issues and to the argumentation processes related to them.     

Economics of soft innovation: a review article

This article identifies and articulates the foundations of the theoretical approach of the new book ‘Soft innovation: Economics, product aesthetics and the creative industries’ by Professor Paul Stoneman. This book is likely to open a new research area within the economics of innovation. The source of economic growth and prosperity is technological change and the economics of innovation to date has mainly focused on technological approaches to innovation. However, the development of the technological base of product and process can explain only a part of economic growth as soft innovation represents a relevant additional source of economic development that has received little attention so far. The source of a unified economic approach for soft innovation relies on Lancaster's theory of consumer behaviour coupled with the variety approach, innovation in services and the economics of knowledge. It appears as though industry structures favouring the successive emergence of new variants are characterised by soft innovations.     

Expectations and the theory of macroeconomic policy: Some recent developments

This paper reviews recent developments in the theory of stabilization policies since the rational expectations revolution. The debate about the neutrality proposition is omitted, and attention is directed at the policy evaluation and the time-inconsistency propositions. It is argued that the open-loop rule of the Friedman type is justifiable only with neutrality, since the techniques of policy evaluation can take into account the restrictions implied by rational expectations. The game-theoretic analyzes by Robert Barro and Donald Gordon support the idea of rules rather than discretion in a novel way, but it is shown that a different reputation mechanism can lead to the “ideal” outcome which is not an equilibrium in the Barro-Gordon analysis.     

Economic factors in the democratization of socialism and the socialization of capitalism

Part I discusses Wlodzimierz Brus' neo-Marxian theory of social change: political democratization as a necessary requirement for socialization of public means of production, and socialization necessary for economic efficiency. Then there is a short discussion of some related features of Marxian theory. Part II gives a model of technological change and of the dynamics of long-run growth. This leads to a discussion of the role of capitalism and authoritarian socialism in rapid growth. The author concludes that for “true democratic socialism” to evolve, the growth explosion of the industrial revolution should have run its course.     

Polynomial innovation diffusion models

In an earlier paper [42] the authors presented a comprehensive evaluation and extensions of available causal models of “binomial type” for describing the time pattern of the innovation diffusion processes. The binomial models are based on the assumption that the entire population can be divided into two groups—adopters of an innovation and the potential adopters—such that eventually everyone adopts the innovation and an innovation once adopted is never rejected. However, many examples can be cited where this assumption is unrealistic. Therefore this paper presents some polynomial innovation diffusion models that are less restrictive compared with the binomial models. The paper also shows the link between the polynomial diffusion process and the multilevel technological substitution process.     

Bayesian updates using precursor events

It is common practice among technological forecasters to use precursor events to anticipate technological change. However, the information obtained from precursor events is usually qualitative in nature. A previous paper demonstrated that information about prior “similar” innovations can be used to generate a probability distribution of lag times between a precursor event and the event to be forecast, thus making the forecasts more quantitative. This paper presents a method for using Bayes' Equation to update probability distributions of lag time using the occurrence of additional precursor events.     

Does the road to serfdom lead to the Servile State?

Hilaire Belloc's The Servile State is often seen as an antisocialist tract arguing that “socialism is slavery.” It is typically assumed that an appreciation and defense of free market capitalism, as well as a general dislike of government intervention must motivate the its thesis. Nevertheless The Servile State is an argument against what Belloc saw as unbridled capitalism not collectivism. Belloc defines capitalism to mean a state in which there is a skewed distribution of wealth in society where the majority of people are dispossessed, proletariat, and a minority makes up the capitalist, property owning class. For Belloc capitalism is an inherently unstable system and servile measures arise to ameliorate insecurity and instability.     

Using precursors as leading indicators of technological change

Technological forecasters frequently utilize the procedure of “monitoring for precursors” in an attempt to anticipate technological changes. In a recent study on patterns of innovation, it was found that the data provided examples of precursors which could be used to illustrate the monitoring technique. In addition, it proved possible to extend the monitoring technique through the generation of probability distributions. The examples, and the extension, are reported here.     

A re-examination of the technological catching-up hypothesis across OECD industries

This study re-examines the catching-up hypothesis at the industry level across the main OECD countries, using panel data econometric models involving technological gap indicators calculated with a nonparametric distance function suggested by Färe et al. [Färe, R.S., Grosskopf, M.N., Norris, M., Xhang, Z., 1994. Productivity growth, technical progress, and efficiency change in industrialized countries. American Economic Review 84, 66–83]. The results show that there is statistical evidence of a catching-up process at the industry level. Moreover, both tradables and nontradables sectors exhibit catching-up effects and technology adoption from abroad. This result complements the findings by Bernard and Jones [Bernard, A.B., Jones, C.I., 1996a. Comparing apples to oranges: productivity convergence and measurement across industries and countries. American Economic Review 86(5), 1216–1238., Bernard, A.B., Jones, C.I., 1996b. Productivity across industries and countries: Time series theory and evidence. Review Of Economics and Statistics 78, 135–146], Gouyette and Perelman [Gouyette, C., Perelman, S., 1997. Productivity convergence in OECD services industries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 8, 279–295] and Hansson and Henrekson [Hansson, P., Henrekson, M., 1997. Catching up, social capability, government size and economic growth, in V. Bergström, eds, Government and Growth, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 61–126] that there is no (or even a slow) catching-up effect in the manufacturing sector. Moreover, social capability indicators evaluated for each country show that “Non-European” and “Central European” tradables sectors have a rather similar degree of inefficiency while “North European” countries are less efficient for both tradables and non-tradables. Lastly, both the cross country and the cross sectors dispersions of inefficiency levels are smaller for tradables sectors than for non-tradables.     

Do concentrated shareholdings mitigate the agency problem of “free cash flow”? some evidence

It is often argued that corporate managers tend to waste “free cash flow”. While the standard Berle-Means approach to corporate agency problems suggests that this behavior should be restricted to firms with atomistic shareholders, it is argued here that the effect of concentrated share ownership on the decision to disgorge “free cash flow” is ambiguous because concentrated ownership can blunt the disciplinary effect of a hostile takeover threat. The decision to pay out free cash flow in a sample of large U.S. corporations is found to be unrelated to the size of managerial, family or institutional blockholdings. This suggests that large shareholders are of no use in resolving the free cash flow problem, or that the importance of free cash flow as a source of agency problems has been greatly exaggerated.     

Infratechnologies and the role of government

Government support of technological change is a complex issue because barriers resulting in underinvestment exist to some degree in most industries, so difficult allocation decisions for limited government resources are necessary. The structure and timing of government support is further complicated because in any one technological area, the nature and severity of underinvestment phenomena vary during the evolution or life cycles of the relevant industries. This paper focuses on the methods and rationale for government support of two elements in industrial technology: generic technology, from which specific products and processes (i.e., innovations) are derived, and “infratechnologies,” which are necessary for the evolution of the generic technology and its applications. Particular emphasis is given to infratechnologies because they are largely supplied by sources outside the industry and have consequently been largely overlooked in previous discussions of industrial policy. A case study of one major source of infratechnology, including quantitative estimates of industry impacts, is presented.     

Technology, productivity, and organization

The on-coming age of changing technology and knowledge intensification, and its interactions with human values are expected to bring forth fundamental shifts in socioeconomic environment. The paper presents an overview of the dynamics of technological change, a hypothesis on productivity dynamics, and likely shifts in organizational structure. To cope with changes, organizational productivity has to be increasingly governed by human creativity and managerial effectiveness. The structure will be flatter, action-oriented, entrepreneurial, and, above all, flexible. By being organically alive, it will be different from conventional mechanical setups. The future will witness more of flexible manufacturing and flexible management systems and a change of emphasis from “management of technology” to “management of change”, governed by a multiperspective vision. The paper also analyzes major problems likely to be faced by developing countries in getting prepared for the future. In addition to their current focus on technological aspects, the Third World countries have to be seriously concerned about people and organizational issues.     

Refining the debate on GM crops using technological foresight—the Danish experience

Rapid developments in and the controversial nature of biotechnology call for communication, networks, partnerships, and collaboration in research, not just among researchers, but also between researchers and research “users” in industry, government, and elsewhere. Technological foresight appears to offer a coordinating method for developing and strengthening those linkages. To test this, a technological foresight study was performed on genetically modified (GM) crop technology in the Danish context. The background of the study was the conflict and intense debate in Denmark over applications of gene technology, especially over the deliberate release of genetically modified (GM) crops. However, the current debate characteristically involves sharply opposed fronts, lacking willingness and courage to engage in a free-flowing and open-minded debate on both rational and normative components of biosafety. In it, stakeholders and experts on both side of the conflict advocate widely differing opinions. Without a proper generally intelligible dialogue, the broader public audience finds it hard to comprehend this type of debate. The study pursues the notion that public dialogue can act as a driver of future applications in the technological domain, specifically GM crops. The study concluded with a stakeholder workshop that revealed three key issues that might provide helpful starting points for a more free-flowing and open-minded debate about the future of GM crops. The issues were those arising from the following statements: a broad perspective on risk is crucial; international regulation must make allowance for developing countries; a better configuration of the risk debate is needed. These issues are discussed in more details in the article.     

Will low technology products disappear?: The hidden innovation processes in low technology industries

Political discussions and analyses have usually been devoted to an understanding of the development of high technology products, although low technology products have dominated the industrial structure of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. The important role of low technology products in these countries raises the question of whether we can observe a technological paradox in the industrial structure of the more advanced nations, the dominant role of this sector in spite of its competitive disadvantages because of high wages. Using the Danish packaging industry as an example, a central thesis in the article is that innovation processes are important in low technology industries. They are also often an integrated part of the marketing and production functions of the firm. The innovation processes in the low technology industries are therefore too complex for traditional R&D analyses to handle. The article points out that—especially in small firms—the “practical man” and his “tacit knowledge” play a very central role in both product and process development, and that low technology, even in the future, will play a central role in the industrial structure of the OECD countries.     

The Helios strategy: An heretical view of the potential role of solar energy in the future of a small planet

Over the next hundred years there must be a worldwide transition from reliance on fossil fuels to the use of some combination of long-term and abundant primary sources for the production of heat, electricity, and synthetic fuels. The rate at which such options can be developed and employed, as well as the maximum rate at which they can provide energy at a sustained rate, will place important constraints on the rate and limits to growth of other human activities. It is generally argued that only the fission option, in the form of the fast-breeder and high-temperature reactors, can provide the energy required for a livable world, particularly if this means a world of 10 billion people living at the present energy level of Western Europe. However, a careful examination indicates that the use of solar energy, through a menu of technological options, can provide the needs of a world at this scale of energy use, and that this can be accomplished within the constraints of land availability and requirements for energy, materials, and labor. No scientific breakthroughs are required, although a number of these would be helpful, but very substantial engineering advances are required, and the transition of such a world-wide system would take no less than a century. However, the feasibility of such large-scale use of solar energy will substantially alter those aspects of the “limits to growth” discussions in which future growth strategies are constrained by available and acceptable energy alternatives. This paper outlines a global solar-energy system considered feasible for more than 10 billion people living at 5 kW per capita.