开展学术创新,推动人口科学--兼评《21世纪中国人口系统模拟与决策》

未来人口发展战略的研究要求人口学方法不断创新.着重讨论了用孩次递进模型的应用.对<21世纪中国人口系统模拟与决策>作了介绍和评论,对应用人口模型研究应注意的问题进行了讨论.     

人口流动和迁移的理论分析模型及其评价

本文针对社会中的人口流动问题,简要讨论了人口流动和人口迁移涉及的主要因素及其研究状况;介绍了国外对社会中人口流动和人口迁移研究中的主要分析模型。作者同时对所介绍的各种研究模型作了初步的评价,并提出了国内对人口流动的研究的看法。     

人口红利对中国经济带动作用研究

自20世纪70年代计划生育政策在中国实施以来,中国用30年的时间完成了向"低出生率、低死亡率、低增长率"的人口增长模式的转变,这种人口结构变迁减轻了资源环境的压力,对中国的可持续发展产生了积极的促进作用。但是近年来东部沿海地区"用工荒"问题的出现,使得学术界开始了关于中国人口红利即将消失的大讨论。采用计量模型等统计分析方法,对反映人口红利现状的各因素与中国经济增长之间的相关性进行研究,并在此基础上提出了延缓人口红利期,实现经济持续稳定增长的相关建议。     

人口增长的Logistic模型分析及其应用

本文运用迭代的方法计算出人口极限值xm和人口增长率r,用Logistic模型预测了我国人口未来的发展趋势,并根据预测的结果提出了相应的对策与建议.     

从人口学到人口科学

回顾了我国人口学近三十年来在研究领域、理论体系建设和研究方法方面取得的巨大进步 ,讨论了在我国人口转变基本完成和社会经济迅速发展的背景下 ,人口科学面临更大的发展机遇和更广阔的发展空间等问题。提出 ,我国人口科学应寻求自身基础理论的定位 ,为改革和发展作出更大贡献。     

从人口学到人口科学

回顾了我国人口学近三十年来在研究领域、理论体系建设和研究方法方面取得的巨大进步,讨论了在我国人口转变基本完成和社会经济迅速发展的背景下,人口科学面临更大的发展机遇和更广阔的发展空间等问题.提出,我国人口科学应寻求自身基础理论的定位,为改革和发展作出更大贡献.     

新世纪人口期刊与人口科学发展论坛

为总结人口期刊多年来的工作历程 ,展望新世纪人口期刊的办刊前景 ,中国人口学会人口期刊委员会于 2 0 0 2年 1月 12日在北京大学召开了《新世纪人口期刊与人口科学发展》学术研讨会。中国人口学会常务副会长李宏规、田雪原等学会领导、全国各主要人口期刊社主编、副主编、专兼职编辑等约四十余人出席研讨会 ,就办好人口期刊、繁荣人口科学、迎接新世纪的挑战等问题展开了热烈的讨论。本刊现摘发会上的主要发言 ,供读者参考     

中国人口增长预测模型

本文首先对人口增长建立了微分方程模型,为了求解的方便,把微分方程模型转变为了步长为1年的差分方程模型,然后在不考虑人口迁移的假设下建立了模型一。为了更加符合实际情况,通过加入人口转移因素,在模型一的基础上建立了模型二。最后得到如下结果:1)人口总量基本不变;2)由于乡村人口不断向城镇转移,使城镇人口增长的速度加快,而农村人口不断减少;在短期求解过程中,认为城镇人口比例的增长将会受到城镇资源的限制,于是采用了logistic模型进行拟合,最后得到如下结果:1)在短期范围内,与线性增长求解得到的结果相符合;2)长期范围内,城镇以及乡村人口变化率减小,趋于稳定。     

“人口盈利”与“人口亏损”

1983年我曾在《人民日报》发表“利用人口年龄结构变动,促进现代化建设”一文,提出并阐发了由于生育率和出生率下降,少年人口和老少人口之和所占比例将经历一段较长时间的降低过程,社会总抚养比持续走低的人口年龄结构变动的“黄金时代”。当时正在讨论经济和社会发展的机遇问题。此文从劳动年龄人口持续增长、从属年龄比(抚养比dependency ratio)持续下降角度,提供支持社会经济快速发展的人口学依据,指出这是历史赋予的不可多得的人口机遇。如今改革开放20多年后,当人们讨论国民经济高速增长还能持续多久时,这一问题重又被提了出来,致使一…     

生育控制与逆人口投资－－人口过剩条件下人口与社会经济问题的综合治理

以逆人口投资为主线 ,说明除了经济惩罚外 ,控制人口增长的绩效关键取决于生育控制投入的数量和方式。以此为依据 ,提出了劳动力过剩国家加速降低生育水平的对策 ,同时也对中国如何进一步降低生育水平提出了相关措施建议     

Brown＇s Blossom in Britain-China

The overall strategic relationship between U.K. and China is ＂better than ever＂, China- Britain relations have maintained good momentum, with increased high-level exchanges and the reinforcement of strategic mutual trust, with more room for growth in the future.     

Challenge and Opportunity Go Hand in Hand——What Global Economic Agitation Brings to the China's Economy?

Domino effects of the global finance agitation As the origin of the subprime crisis,US financial institutions lost USS45 billion last year,accounted for over half of the total US,EU & Japan loss.Since January 15th,Chtigroup released its financial statement of the 4th quarter,showing a net deficit of USS9.83 billion,which marked the hisoric high of its quarterly deficit.     

Jean-Pierre Duprieu： Willing to Be A Legate of Sino-French Business

Estaing, former French president, Valery Giscard d＇Estaing attended Sino-French Economic Seminar held in Shanghai in early April and said that the world center has shifted from the west to the east with many European and US companies entering into Asia, and China has the ability to play an important role in the world stage. Estaing, naming himself＂French Confucian＂, then said in Chinese that a cook-group includes 10 people in ancient Chinese soldier system and the cook is in charge of cooking for them. And people who belong to the same cook are actually ＂Partners＂.     

China''''s Stock Market Wave

The annual meeting of the World Economy Forum was held in Davos,a little town in Switzerland,on January 23rd to the 27th this year,with the theme"the Power fo Collaborative Innovation",over 2500 celebrates from ture political and cconomic circles of more than 80 countries and challengred logether to talk about the future of the global economy in 2008,A Forum for the problems and challenges that face whole world,some of the keywords which drew attention during the event were:the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis,soaring energy prices,the economic slowdown in the U.S.ermerging economic bodies,authority funds and the general unpredictable nature of the global economy.     

Trade Promotion from Neighborhood

If you are considering to trade with companies in Japan or expanding your .business to Japan, we are ready to help from the very beginning.＂ You will find this greeting at the first sight on the Chinese website of Japan External Trade Organization （JETRO）. JETRO has committed itself in delivering highly efficient and quality services to meet the demand of internal and external customs including Japanese companies, hence winning a good reputation in the international trade arena. In recent years, with its priority in advancing business cooperation in South and East Asia, JETRO has made great achievement in promoting trade between China and Japan. Therefore, China＇s Foreign Trade interviewed Mr. Yoichi Maine, Deputy Director General of JETRO BEIJING.     

Auto Parts Market Potential Coming into Surface

Looking at the increasingly fierce competition in the world auto market. global automobile manufacturing industry, taking Europe, the U.S. and Japan as representatives, is gradually forming a new type of relationship, mutual cooperation between whole vehicle and parts manufacturers. We can clearly see that auto parts manufacturers have become independent from the whole vehicle manufacturing companies, which means that the former structure of auto industry has greatly changed, and a new relationship,     

Domino Effect on Electricity and Coal Prices

In the middle of last December, the key purchase contracts for coal used in power generation in 2008 were signed, reflecting a demand for more than 1.085 billion tons. It is important to note that the country＇s five biggest power producers, China Huaneng Group, China Guodian Corporation, China Power Investment Corporation, China Huadian Corporation and China Datang Corporation, had settled on the prices on their purchase contracts, and they are expected to consume 290 million tons of coal for generating electricity,     

Slimmed May Day Holiday

Last November the State Council of China decided to renew its holiday system by reducing the seven-day May Day holiday to three days and introducing three new one-day public holidays, namely the Qingming Festival, Dragon Boat Festival and Moon Festival. By doing so, the three golden-week holidays that were introduced in 1999, namely the Spring Festival, May Day and National Day, could be better distributed.     

China Ranked the 7th in Global Influence Survey

The results of the Annual Global Public Opinion Survey were released by the British Broadcasting Company （BBC） on April 2,2008,the combination of 7,457 public opinion polls in 34 countries,gave Germany and Japan the No.1 and No.2 spots,respectively, while the last four went to North Korea, Pakistan,Israel,Iran.     

Figures from Government Working Report

Nine o＇clock in the morning of March 5th,2008,the first meeting of the eleventh session of National People＇s Congress was held in the Great Hall of People.As usual,the first performance of this big event in China was from the government working report made by the Premier.Five years of government＇s work in this session was counted in Premier Wen Jiabao＇s working report.