With both feet planted firmly in mid-air: Reflections on thinking about the future

This article reflects on over two decades of one individual's thinking about the future. Of central concern are the epistemological problems raised by futures studies and the role of the values and beliefs of both the producers and consumers (as well as anti-consumers) of futures studies. Increasingly Professor Michael has come to be concerned with the functions futures studies perform rather than the undertaking itself. Futures studies are seen essentially as storytelling-and various methodological injunctions and morals flow from this view.     

信用卡欺诈风险状况探析

随着我国信用卡业务的迅速发展和竞争的日趋激烈,各种专业信用卡诈骗集团、代办公司和套现公司等不断涌现,我国信用卡欺诈风险已进入多发、高发时期.本文就我国信用卡欺诈风险状况进行较深入的分析,并提出一些应对措施.     

The effect of emotion and time pressure on risk decision-making

Emotion and time pressure are two important factors affecting risk decision-making. This study explored the interaction of emotion and time pressure on risk decision-making by adopting 3 (emotion state: positive emotion, negative emotion, and control group)?×?2 (time constraint: high time constraint and no time constraint) between-subject experiment design. The results showed that (1) both emotion and time pressure exerted significant effect on risk decision-making (generally, positive emotion renders participants more risk prone than negative emotion, and high time pressure promotes people more risk seeking than no time pressure); (2) time pressure polarized the effects of different emotions on risk decision-making. As effects of emotions were polarized under high time pressure, two distinct cognitive pathways may function in human decision-making. Based on our experimental result and previous neuroeconomic works, we proposed a novel dual cognitive pathways model to explain phenomenon in the current article.     

The social scientific turn in UK financial accounting research: A philosophical and sociological analysis

The demise of the classical programme of financial accounting research is generally represented as a progressive development. This paper argues that the academy's abandonment of classical methods was justified neither by the fruitfulness of post‐classical programmes nor by their incontestable epistemological superiority. Rather, what occurred was a turn to mainstream social science, reflecting sociological characteristics of the UK financial accounting research community. The paper concludes with a call for a revival of the classical programme.     

The end of risk communication as we know it

According to the US National Research Council, risk communication ought to be viewed as a dialogue among people conducted to help facilitate a more accurate understanding of risks and, related, the decisions they may make to manage them. But, in spite of this widely accepted perspective on risk communication, there is often a disconnect between how it is defined and how it is practiced. Rather than focusing on a true dialogue aimed at improving risk assessments and risk management decisions, risk communication is often viewed as means of simply educating people about existing risk assessments so that, on their own, they might make (or contribute to) better risk management decisions. More worrisome, risk communication is still often seen as a means of ‘correcting’ misconceptions about, or perceptions of, risk; in other words, risk communication is used as a vehicle for attempting to align lay perceptions with their expertly assessed severity. In this paper, I argue that risk communication must become more decision-focused if it is to meet the objectives set forth – in 1989 – by the US National Research Council.     

The constitutive element of probabilistic agency in risk: a semantic analysis of risk,danger, chance,and hazard

Defining central concepts with accuracy is crucial to any scientific discipline. A recent debate over risk definitions in this journal illustrates the far reaching consequences of divergent definitions. Aven and Renn define risk as a social construct while Rosa defines risk as an ontological fact. Both claim that their definition reflects the common usage of the word risk. Through a semantic analysis this paper points to a constitutive element of what is termed probabilistic agency in the risk concept. In this respect, risk is distinct from danger, and because Rosa’s main argument is based on the apparent synonymy between risk and danger, the premises for his risk ontology are not valid. The paper furthermore argues that Aven and Renn’s attempt to bridge between epistemology and ontology is based on a distinction between a conceptual level of risk and its practical application which is impossible to uphold if a risk definition is to be in accordance with the ordinary usage of the word. The paper concludes by arguing that risks are only real within a subjective ontology.     

商业银行 信息科技风险现状与管理策略分析

近年来,商业银行的业务量、业务种类快速增长,信息科技在商业银行的各项工作中得到了越来越广泛的应用。在促进商业银行提高工作效率、提升服务水平、拓展业务范围、优化组织架构等方面,信息科技发挥着不可替代的作用。新《巴塞尔资本协议》对于信息科技风险有明确的定义,将其作为操作风险中的重点进行防控,并确定把信息科技风险纳入银行总体风险监管框架。     

通货膨胀背景下信用风险变化与对策

中国信保专家忠告：如果海外买方所在国通货膨胀严重．企业的信用风险将发生重大变化,在相应分析决策时,必须采用一定的对策和方法,积极应对,防范风险     

Specificity of reinforcement for risk behaviors of the Balloon Analog Risk Task using math models of performance

Risky decision-making has been studied using multitrial behavioral tasks. Concordance of such tasks to risky behaviors could be improved by: (1) mathematically modeling the components of decision change and (2) providing reinforcement specific to the risk behavior studied. Men completed two Balloon Analog Risk Tasks (BART). One provided financial reinforcement (money) and the other provided sexual reinforcement (seconds of erotic film viewing). Parameters of a mathematical model of BART performance were fit to each individual. Correlations between the model parameters and four risk categories (financial, sexual, antisociality, and substance use) demonstrated predictive utility for the same behaviors regardless of task reinforcement, providing little evidence of reinforcement specificity. A reward sensitivity parameter was uniquely related to sexual risk behavior. Additional analyses explored parameter stability fit to fewer trials.     

An ontological analysis of the economic primitives of the extended-REA enterprise information architecture

The resource–event–agent (REA) model for enterprise economic phenomena was first published in The Accounting Review in 1982. Since that time, its concepts and use have been extended far beyond its original accountability infrastructure to a framework for enterprise information architectures. The granularity of the model has been extended both up (to enterprise value chains) and down (to workflow or task specification) in the aggregation plane, and additional conceptual type-images and commitment-images have been proposed as well. The REA model actually fits the notion of domain ontology well, a notion that is becoming increasingly important in the era of E-commerce and virtual companies. However, its present and future components have never been analyzed formally from an ontological perspective. This paper intends to do just that, relying primarily on the conceptual terminology of John Sowa. The economic primitives of the original REA model (economic resources, economic events, economic agents, duality relationships, stock–flow relationships, control relationships, and responsibility relationships) plus some newer components (commitments, types, custody, reciprocal, etc.) will be analyzed individually and collectively as a specific domain ontology. Such a review can be used to guide further conceptual development of REA extensions.     

A characterisation of the methodology of qualitative research on the nature of perceived risk: trends and omissions

The issue of how risk is ‘perceived’ is one of significant research interest and immense practical importance. In spite of this wide interest, however, it is probably fair to say that most emerging ‘risk’ crises – whether related to natural or technological phenomena – come as a surprise to researchers and to society as a whole. Prediction of human responses to novel potential hazards (or novel manifestations of old hazards) is neither reliable nor complete; strategies to ameliorate inappropriate concerns when they arise (or to make realistic inappropriate absences of concern) do not appear totally effective. It therefore seems apt to ask the question: just what have we learned about ‘risk perception’? In this paper we conduct a structured review of qualitative research on perceived risk – to be followed by a subsequent analysis of quantitative research in a later paper – focusing upon methodological issues. Qualitative research often precedes quantitative research, and ideally informs it; it seeks depth and meaning from few subjects rather than identifying patterns within larger samples and populations. Without adequate qualitative research, quantitative research risks misanalysis of the target phenomenon, at the very least by the omission of relevant factors and inclusion of irrelevant ones. Our analysis here – of qualitative studies conducted across a range of disciplines, not all of which will be familiar to the readers of this journal – suggests that this research suffers from an incomplete coverage of the ‘risk perception universe’, typified by a focus on atypical hazards and study samples. We summarise the results of this research, while pointing out its limitations, and draw conclusions about future priorities for research of this type.     

Misclassifications in financial risk tolerance

This paper analyses the empirical risk tolerance of individuals and the role of physiological measures of risk perception. By using a test that mimics the financial decision process in a laboratory setting (N?=?445), we obtained an ex-post empirical measure of individual risk tolerance. Predictive classification models allow us to evaluate the accuracy of two alternative risk-tolerance forecasting methods: a self-report questionnaire and a psycho-physiological experiment. We find that accuracy of self-assessments is low and that misclassifications resulting from questionnaires vary from 36 to 65%: individuals asked to self-evaluate their risk tolerance reveal a high probability of failing their judgement, i.e. they behave as risk takers, even if, before the task, they define themselves as risk averse (and vice versa). Conversely, when the risk-tolerance forecast is obtained from individuals’ physiological arousal, observed via their somatic activation before risky choices, the rate of misclassification is considerably lower (~17%). Emotions are confirmed to influence the financial risk-taking process, enhancing the accuracy of the individual risk-tolerance forecasting activity. Self-report questionnaires, conversely, could lead to inadequate risk-tolerance assessments, with consequent unsuitable investment decisions. Bridging these results from the individual to the institutional level, our findings should enhance cautiousness, among regulators and financial institutions, on the (ab)use of risk tolerance questionnaires as tools for classifying individuals’ behaviour under risk.     

Reflections on the practice of research

In this essay, we consider the relevance of research. To support our argument of its relevance, we offer three cases – Hull House, the Indian Trust Fund, and accounting standard-setting – that examine the taken-for-grantedness of accountability and the ways in which the term is frequently used.     

Risk assessment and risk decision-making process related to hazardous installation in France

The chemical process industry gathers critical infrastructures since chemical plants represent for the society both an instrument to generate activity and benefits (production of goods, employment, services …), and an instrument that can harm people and the environment. This paper describes the risk assessment approach need in France for licensing hazardous installations, in particular those covered by the Seveso II Directive and the implication for land-use planning. The first part explains why the French risk assessment procedure is based on the quantitative evaluation of major accident scenarios with explicit criteria, and only on qualitative analysis of the risk reducing measures without explicit criteria. The second part shows some on-going evolutions in the risk assessment process in particular for the analysis of the safety barriers. In the third part, the authors share some thoughts on the risk decision-making process.     

My Reflections on the FPC's Strategy

I review the workings of the United Kingdom's Financial Policy Committee to illustrate the challenges of implementing macroprudential policy. I describe the committee's remit, explain my views on the channels of financial instability that the committee tries to mitigate, describe the tools the committee has its disposal and outline the principles it uses in deploying these tools. I conclude by offering some of the lessons I have learned in serving on the committee and highlighting a few challenges for macroprudential policymakers.     

发展商业银行国际保理业务的认识与思考

国际保理业务（International Factoring)，又称保付代理业务，是指出口商以挂账，承兑交单等方式销售货物时，保理商买进出口商的应收账款，并向其提供资金融通、进口商资信评估，销售账户管理、信用风险提保、账款催收等一系列服务的综合金融服务方式，根据保理业务涉及保理商的情况，保理业务通常可分为双保理模式和单保理模式，其中双保理模式是目前国际上最为流行的形式，在欧洲和北美洲开展的国际保理业务中，大多数都采用这一方式，而单保理模式则更多地被运用在国内保理业务中。     

两次辉煌背后的思考——重访中国工商银行山东省分行营业部济南大观园支行

1995年，山东济南大观园储蓄所以“微笑服务”成为全国银行服务业的一面旗帜。2008年，大观园支行贵宾理财中心以“助你财富增值”为口号，再次成为同业瞩目的焦点，无疑，是“优质服务”成就了大观园的两次辉煌。但是，大观园支行曲折的发展之路让我们不禁思索，这两次辉煌仅仅是历史的重复吗？为什么两次辉煌之间也经历过低谷？“如果一个理财建议能让客户资产增长百分之一。比给他一百个微笑都有用！”从沈荣勤行长的话中，我们似乎能体会到解答这些问题的端倪——在一日千里的市场发展中，“优质服务”是一个永无止境的话题。     

关于消费信贷立法的思考

消费信贷对推进金融服务的创新和信贷体制的完善有重要的意义,本文在分析我国消费信贷立法现状的基础上,对我国消费信贷立法及配套制度的建立和完善提出相关建议。