The effect of communication design and recipients’ numeracy on responses to UXO risk

Risk communications aim to affect recipients’ understanding of specific risks, their trust and liking of the materials, affective responses, and associated behaviors. We developed communications about the number of construction workers expected to get hurt if building were permitted at the former Fort Ord weapons training site in California, despite its contamination with unexploded ordnance (UXO). We created eight versions, which presented text only or bar graph with text, the numerator of the risk (the number of workers expected to be hurt) with or without emphasis on the denominator (the total number of workers), and uncertainty information (the probability that different numbers of workers would be hurt) or not. Recipients varied in numeracy. We examined the effect of these communication features on recipients’ (1) understanding, (2) trust and liking of the materials, (3) affective responses, and (4) support for construction and for construction workers if construction were to be implemented. Low-numerate individuals showed less understanding across all versions of the communication, yet preferred graph-with-text displays relatively more than text-only displays as compared to high-numerate individuals. Emphasizing the denominator increased understanding of text-only displays but decreased support for construction and construction workers for all communication versions. Moreover, recipients were more supportive of construction and construction workers after receiving text-only displays without uncertainty information or graph-with-text displays with uncertainty information, seemingly due to communications with those features being trusted and liked more. We discuss the implications for communicating risks in general and for communicating UXO-related risks to the community surrounding Fort Ord.     

Credit risk modeling strategies: the road to serfdom?

This paper aims at presenting some practical issues in modeling default risk of a single commercial credit counterparty from the perspective of a large retail bank. We define default risk as the probability that a counterparty’s intrinsic credit quality deteriorates within a given time horizon such that contractual agreements cannot be honored. This work gives an insight into using scoring/rating models in a credit environment of a large European bank. Contrary to many banks, we did not define the segments in a first step with a view to developing the rating tools in a second step. Our approach has, to some extent, followed a different path. Iteratively, we both defined the borders for a particular segment and selected an appropriate rating tool. More particularly, customer segmentation has been carried out on the basis of various rating tools’ goodness-of-fit criteria. The topics cover customer segmentation using goodness-of-fit measures, data measurement levels and optimization algorithms, rating tool calibration to the central default tendency and communication to the end user. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘Living on the edge’: using cognitive filters to appraise experience of environmental risk

Individuals respond to an experience of risk, both in attitudinal and behavioural terms as a result of how that experience is interpreted and appraised. Experience of local flooding can in theory, inform individuals’ attitudes towards climate change. This trend however, is not observed in all cases and is highly dependent on the local, situational context. This paper postulates that the variation observed in attitudinal and behavioural responses by farmers to climate change following experiences of local flooding can, in part, be explained by the Cognitive Filters of Experience Appraisal Model introduced in this paper. The model is developed firstly through a review of the existing literature concerning appraisal (cognitive and experience). Secondly, the model is framed by empirical research via fifteen face to face interviews with farmers in Gloucestershire, England, who have all directly experienced flooding in recent years. The study is exploratory in nature, and the qualitative data serve as contextualised accounts of the different patterns of experience appraisal. The paper contributes to existing literature by developing current understandings of experience appraisal as well as providing qualitative detail to an area which has generally only been researched quantitatively. The model of experience appraisal which is put forward could be applied to multiple contexts of environmental risk.     

Q method can identify diverse perspectives on ‘helpful’ information on cancer clusters and inform risk communication generally

Communication by state public health agencies about cancer clusters is complicated by divergent official and citizen beliefs about causation (e.g. chance versus environmental pollution). We use Q method, rarely applied in the risk field, to explore disparate perspectives on what people deem helpful and unhelpful in background (not site-specific) information about cancer clusters. Q method identified five unique perspectives, with low inter-factor correlations: Cancer Causation, Best Information, Cancer Frequency, Study Success, and Empathy/Competence. Besides discussing implications of these perspectives for improving communication about cancer clusters, we use this case to illustrate Q method’s more general ability to represent variability in attitudes about risk and risk information and to improve risk communication.     

A commentary on ‘The long road to publishing: A user-friendly exposé’

Many of the pressing questions currently facing accounting education researchers are best addressed through experimental research. For example, experiments are useful in testing the effect of innovative educational practices on student learning. The purpose of this paper is to briefly review the literature addressing sources of invalidity which may cloud the results of experiments and describe several procedures which are helpful in controlling for these sources of invalidity. Examples are provided, from published accounting education research studies, which illustrate how researchers have attempted to address several of these threats to validity. Experiments must be carefully planned and designed, so the experiment on completion fulfills the objectives of the researcher. Although experiments are more difficult to conduct in the educational environment than in a scientist's laboratory, many procedures are available to assist accounting education researchers in designing tightly controlled experiments.     

Experiencing risk: the effect of the experiential life-skills centre ‘Warning Zone’ on children’s risk perception

This study examined the psychological effects of the Warning Zone experiential life-skills centre on risk perception. The aim of Warning Zone is to educate children about dangers and risks they may encounter in everyday life, with a view to preventing injury. To evaluate changes in risk perception, a quasi-experimental study was undertaken in which children’s risk perception was measured before, after, and one month after the Warning Zone experience. This research also examined children from different types of schools, in order to assess socio-economic factors. Children’s risk perception increased significantly after Warning Zone, and this significant increase was retained one month later. Differential effects of Warning Zone were found between children from different school types, as were pre-existing differences in risk perception between these groups. Children from more deprived backgrounds had better understanding of risks prior to their visit to Warning Zone and a month later had better retained the message of Warning Zone about risks. We conclude that Warning Zone is effective at raising children’s perceptions of risk.     

Preparing for the unknown… unknowns: ‘doomsday’ prepping and disaster risk anxiety in the United States

This article examines the collapse-based thinking energising ‘doomsday’ prepping: a growing American phenomenon centred on storing food, water and weapons for the purpose of surviving disasters. Existing understandings of prepping indicate that its practitioners are driven to prepare by peculiar and delusional certainty that apocalyptic collapse will occur in the near future. This view, however, has not yet been tested by empirical research. This article draws on ethnography with 39 preppers in 18 American states to present a new understanding of this phenomenon, as it shows prepping consistently being practiced in the absence of both apocalyptic predictions and certainty regarding the future occurrence of disaster. Demonstrating that preppers’ activities are undergirded by precautionary projections around numerous non-apocalyptic ‘threats’, the article argues that prepping principally responds to uncertain anxieties around disaster risks. Moreover, it establishes that these imprecise anxieties are regularly influenced by preppers’ consumption of disaster-based speculation in mainstream news media – showing that their concerns tend to emerge in response to numerous disaster risks that are widely reported and recognised in wider American culture, rather than marginal conceptions of ‘threats’. The article, therefore, contends that, rather than being a marginal apocalyptic practice, prepping is a phenomenon with clear, previously unacknowledged links to broader risk communications and concerns in the twenty-first century United States – one that must be understood as a reflection of the broader resonance of disaster-based speculation and uncertainty in this cultural context.     

The ‘ladder of success’ in healthcare: the UK national reference costing index

Relative performance evaluation (RPE) is a form of benchmarking that operates through ranking institutions in comparative league tables. This paper explores issues raised by the introduction of RPE to benchmark UK hospital costs (termed ‘reference’ costs for this purpose). These reference costs are aggregated into a comparative cost index—thereby creating a ‘ladder of success’.The ‘ladder of success’ has the potentiality both to enhance the purchasing role and to provide a comparative database for hospitals to improve their performances. Yet this research found that several problems confound its use for benchmarking: the absence of a referent (or standard) against which ‘reference’ costs can be compared; the non-comparability of many hospitals featuring in the index; and the lack of standardisation in costing practices.In terms of refining and developing the index to enhance its usefulness, there are several possibilities: distinguishing between direct and indirect costs; introducing benchmarking ‘cluster groups’; pinpointing an acceptable range of target costs; and reducing the scope of clinical activities included. However, if any of these alternatives were adopted, the power of a single comprehensive measure that attaches one—and only one—number to each trust would be lost. The issue is that in making the index more meaningful, political leverage over the UK trusts would be reduced. Hence, despite all its associated problems, this research concludes that the ‘ladder of success’ looks likely to continue in its present form.     

‘Ordinary science intelligence’: a science-comprehension measure for study of risk and science communication,with notes on evolution and climate change

This paper describes the ‘ordinary science intelligence’ scale (OSI_2.0). Designed for use in the empirical study of risk perception and science communication, OSI_2.0 comprises items intended to measure a latent capacity to recognize and make use of valid scientific evidence in everyday decision-making. The derivation of the items, the relationship of them to the knowledge and skills OSI requires, and the psychometric properties of the scale are examined. Evidence of the external validity of OSI_2.0 is also presented. Finally, the utility of OSI_2.0 is briefly illustrated by its use to assess standard survey items on evolution and global warming: when administered to members of a US general population sample, these items are more convincingly viewed as indicators of one or another latent cultural identity than as indicators of science comprehension.     

Political–security risk in the oil and gas industry: the impact of terrorism on risk management and mitigation

Oil and gas companies are experiencing an increase in terrorist attacks. The industry became a legitimate target for terrorist groups in the 1990s and the number of attacks have increased yearly, with a spike after the 9/11 attacks. In today’s interconnected world, political risk is not only about the relationship between the host government and the company. Oil and gas companies may experience risks on a transnational, national and human security level. The success of new investments often depends on the successful utilization of risk management strategies. This study focuses on the importance of political–security risk in the oil and gas industry. In January 2013, the oil and gas industry experienced one of its deadliest attacks at the In Amenas gas facility in Algeria, forcing firms to reconsider its focus on security management. Statoil undertook a thorough analysis of security at the site as well as of the company′s corporate security risk management. The report revealed a lack of focus on political–security risk. This study argues that political–security risk has not been used to its full potential in the oil and gas industry. The oil and gas industry has always focused on site security, but a broader more holistic approach to risk management has been lacking. As a result of the In Amenas incident, the industry has become more willing to have a new discussion on security and this has resulted in changes in the way companies operate.     

Toward the NGO-involved schooling: a study on teachers’ risk perceptions and teachings

This paper focuses on revealing the ambivalent situations in teachers’ risk perceptions and teachings. Three ambivalent situations are found. The first is that, although the teachers reported that collective-related risks are more important than personal-related risks, they are less active in gathering knowledge regarding collective-related risks. The second situation is that, although teachers try to supplement their teaching materials with more risk phenomena, this may just be in response to their occupational needs, rather than due to their moral reflexivity. The third ambivalent situation is that the competitive and individualized environment seems to limit the teachers’ risk teaching. Based on these findings and other research, the author states that NGO-involved schooling might be a significant strategy to face the challenge of world risks in the neoliberal world.