货币错配波动的集聚性及与汇率、利率的联动性——基于向量TGARCH-BEKK模型

中国货币错配波动具有明显的非对称性,不具有尖峰性,但具有长记忆特性.向量TGARCH-BEKK模型的分析结果表明:货币错配程度减弱时其波动集聚性更强,波动集聚性滞后效应持续约6～7年;货币错配受到汇率冲击的溢出效应比利率冲击大;1994年汇率改革后货币错配与汇率呈弱化趋势,但货币错配与利率的联动性增强;亚洲金融危机期间的货币错配与汇率联动性明显增强,金融危机冲击对贷币错配产生倒"U"型脉冲效应;总体来看,人民币汇率升值虽然不利于货币错配波动集聚性的弱化,但可以减弱国家层面货币错配程度.     

加工贸易活动成效差异原因探究——基于东亚与拉美的经验

台湾地区、韩国加工装配活动成功和智利、阿根廷成效差异的原因,在于发展战略、政策环境、劳动力市场发育程度与外部环境差异等等;东亚由加工装配活动成功向加工贸易活动转变,而东南亚成效不佳的原因,在于后向联系和技术溢出方面的差异;中国大陆的加工装配活动是成功的,已在增加就业、增加国民收入与缩小收入差距、平衡国际收支和技术转移方面发挥了积极作用,沿海地区加工装配产业在比较优势将消失的趋势下,向中部地区转移这些产业并同时实现产业升级将是最优选择.     

从东亚区域经济合作看日本的战略问题

近年来的日本经济可谓"失去的十年",对此有种种论述和探讨,笔者认为日本的问题源于中长期战略的滞后和欠缺。面对全球经济的区域化和现实经济的相互依存性,东亚区域经济合作存在着必然的因素,同时也为日本经济的改革、发展提供了极好的平台和可能。     

Is There a Link Between Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Monetary Regime: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America

This paper investigates the relationship between the monetary regime: pegged, currency board, dollarization, and the exchange rate pass-through for a sample consisting of 15 Sub-Saharan Africa countries and 12 Latin American countries. The research findings about pass-through rates will shed light on the feasibility of a monetary union for Sub-Saharan Africa. The inclusion of the latter country group was deemed desirable to explore pass-through behavior in several monetary regime options not often used in Sub-Saharan Africa.

论东亚地区社会信任与经济增长的正相关效应

越来越多的研究表明社会信任是解释经济增长的一个重要变量。不过一般认为华人社会是一个低信任度的社会。但WSV的调查数据证明不仅华人社会，而且整个东亚地区中那些在近40年经历了快速增长的经济体中都有非常高的信任度，这种信任也是这一地区经济增长的源泉。     

Environmental rationalities and the development state in East Asia: Prospects for a sustainability transition

This paper reviews what is known about recent trends in environmental governance among the newly industrializing countries of East Asia and the implications of these developments for a sustainability transition within the region. The conceptual starting point for the review is research that examines sustainability transitions within the framework of a multi-level perspective on system innovation. One of the challenges presented by this framework is that of understanding how existing political economies and governance structures promote stability or change in socio-technical regimes. By socio-technical regimes we mean the predominant organizational, social and technological configurations through which societal needs are constituted and met. In the case of the rapidly industrializing and urbanizing economies of East Asia, the trajectory of socio-technical regimes will have profound consequences for local, regional and global environments. Our review of trends in environmental governance as they relate to socio-technical regimes within the region traces a pattern of initial efforts to strengthen environmental regulatory regimes very much along the lines of the policy models of OECD economies. The degree to which these initial efforts have taken root varies from country to country in the region. What is beginning to emerge in several countries within the region, however, are a variety of policy and institutional innovations that hold promise for opening up spaces for change in socio-technical regimes, and for creating opportunities for new pathways of industrialization and urbanization to take hold that are less pollution, materials and energy-intensive.     

云南与东南亚南亚开展技术转移对策研究

技术转移是促进技术进步、加快产业发展的重要手段.文章分析了云南省与东南亚、南亚开展技术转移的优势和条件,提出了开展技术转移的总体思路与策略.在此基础上,从加强宏观管理与设计、完善技术转移服务体系以及优化技术转移环境等方面提出了相应的对策措施.     

东亚区域经济合作新模式:中国-东盟自由贸易区

2001年11月在第五次东盟与中国领导人（10＋1）会议上，中国与东盟达成一致，确立了10年内建成中国－东盟自由贸易区的目标。这对双方关系的长远发展和东亚地区的繁荣稳定具有深远意义。它是中国继加入世界贸易组织后又一件对外经贸方面的重大事件。本就这一东亚区域合作的新模式产生的国际背景，以及实现目标所面临的困难进行分析。     

货币国际化程度度量的简单方法和人民币国际化水平的提升

货币国际化程度的度量是非常重要的问题,有了客观科学的度量方法,才能对不同货币在不同时间段内国际化程度的变化有客观的判断和把握。货币国际化功能表现在多个领域,涉及很多数据和参数,准确而全面地度量货币国际化并不容易。然而,不管货币国际化功能在多少个领域有所发挥,皆会导致相应货币外汇交易的活跃,因此,货币在国际外汇市场的活跃程度可以间接地度量货币的综合国际化程度。基于该思路,本文建立了一个即简单又切实可行的方法来度量货币国际化,还可容易地计算出不同货币或货币组之间相对的国际化程度,对包括人民币在内的30个国际主要货币2007年和2010年的国际化程度进行度量,并计算出这些货币相对美元的国际化程度及人民币相对于其他货币的国际化程度。     

制度因素与东亚双边贸易:贸易引力模型的实证分析

银行与金融、政府干预、黑市活动、资本流动与外国投资、货币政策对东亚经济体出口贸易有重要影响,银行与金融、政府干预、产权、政府负担对东亚经济体进口贸易有重要影响。提高政府干预质量,积极合理地引进国际直接投资,建立并完善公正廉洁高效的司法体系应成为东亚经济体各政府未来重要的政策取向。     

The Dowry Gift in South Asia: An Institution on the Intersection of Market and Patriarchy

Abstract

Dowry refers to marriage gifts that are instrumental to the negotiation of the marriage contract. Historically, the dowry gift was constituted by law across the Roman empire. While dowry has become largely irrelevant in Europe in contemporary times, it is still pervasive across the Brahmanical Hindu societies of South Asia. Moreover, what was traditionally token gifts from friends and well-wishers has taken on the form of “new dowry” since the colonial period. “New dowry” is heavily composed of cash and market goods, including land and is frequently accompanied by violence against new brides when their families fail to make larger dowry gifts with higher market value. This article examines the evolution of “new dowry” through a Polanyian lens. Unlike the neoclassical Beckerian approach which takes an ahistorical outlook to marriage as a “market” for matching partners and dowry as a market price, the substantivist lens à la Polanyi investigates the historical evolution of “new dowry” through the advent of market processes in the colonial period and the countermovement of legal reform in the post-colonial period.     

Agricultural intensification, irrigation and the environment in South Asia: Issues and policy options

High population pressure and the rapid pace of human activity including urbanization, industrialization and other economic activities have led to a dwindling supply of arable land per capita and a process of agricultural intensification in South Asia. While this process has significantly increased food production to feed the growing population, it has also entailed considerable damage to the physical environment, including degradation and depletion of natural resources and unsustainable use of land and water resources. This paper employs the analytical tools of economic theory, environmental and ecological economics to model the impact of irrigation in South Asia. It underscores the need for an eclectic approach to policy responses stemming from private and common property rights theories, externality theory and sustainability theory with a view to environmentalizing agricultural development.     

China-Central Asia Relations and Role of the Belt and Road Initiative

China is moving to greater economic and political influence in the global scale.One of the Chinese strategy for“go global”is Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)which ...     

发展战略与汇率制度选择

一般而言,一国汇率制度的选择会受该国经济和政治因素的影响,而发展中国家在选择汇率制度时还会受到其发展战略的影响.本文考察了发展战略与汇率制度选择之间的关系,发现实施赶超战略和进口替代战略的国家会选择固定汇率制度并高估本币币值,甚至采用多元汇率制度;实施出口导向战略的国家会选择固定汇率或者钉住汇率制度,一般钉住美元且波幅很小,并低估本币币值;而只有真正实施比较优势战略的国家才选择浮动汇率制度,政府很少干预汇率的变化.现阶段,我国要坚定地实施有管理的浮动汇率.并适当控制人民币的升值速度.     

东(南)亚地区华人资本在华外商直接投资现状及趋势分析

海外华人资本是世界经济的重要组成部分.近年来,随着经济全球化和中国对外开放的深入发展,海外华人资本,特别是东(南)亚地区华人资本纷纷涌向中国大陆进行投资,构成了中国大陆实际利用外商直接投资的主体,并对中国大陆经济发展起到了巨大的推动作用.东(南)亚华人资本在中国大陆直接投资的阶段及特征,有其独特性.     

外汇风险对冲和公司价值:基于中国跨国公司的实证研究

2005年7月人民币汇改以来,人民币升值,特别是相对于美元大幅升值,其不利影响开始显现,我国不少跨国公司使用外汇衍生品来对冲人民币汇率升值带来的风险。然而,尽管不少国外学者对金融衍生品使用和公司价值的关系进行了深入研究,但以中国公司为样本的研究仍很少见。中信泰富等衍生品投机事件和2008年金融危机的发生使得我国学者对金融衍生工具的作用和性质争议不断,使用外汇衍生品对冲外汇风险是否增加公司价值仍是一个有待深入研究的问题。本文基于2007年至2009年968家中国跨国公司的数据,实证检验了外汇衍生品使用和公司价值的关系,发现外汇衍生品使用带来了约10%的价值溢价,这一重要发现和基于发达国家的不少研究相一致。该研究成果支持了外汇衍生品在汇率风险管理中的积极作用和加快发展我国外汇衍生品市场特别是交易所市场以掌握人民币汇率定价权的重要性和紧迫性。     

Financial Crisis,Capital Outflows,and Policy Responses: Examples from East Asia

Financial crises seem to have become the norm rather than the exception since 1992. The author examines the impact of a crisis of confidence and resultant capital outflows from a small and open economy and the possible policy options in response to such outflows, using simple tools and definitions that will be familiar to any money and banking or intermediate macroeconomics student. Examples are drawn from the East Asian crisis of 1997-98 (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand), although the analysis remains pertinent to emerging economies in general.     

Economic burden of hepatitis C-associated diseases: Europe,Asia Pacific,and the Americas

Abstract

Background:

Globally, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infects ～3% of the population. The objective of this study was to review published work and determine the direct medical costs for diseases associated with HCV infection globally, with the exception of the US.

Methods:

A systematic literature search was conducted to identify studies reporting the costs of hepatitis C sequelae between January 1990 and January 2011. Over 400 references were identified, of which 45 were pertinent. The costs were compiled, converted to US dollars, and adjusted to 2010 costs using the medical component of the consumer price index.

Results:

The median cost of liver transplants was estimated at $139,070 ($15,430–$443,700), refractory ascites at $16,740 ($8990–$35,940), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at $15,310 ($3370–$84,710), decompensated cirrhosis at $14,660 ($3810–$48,360), variceal hemorrhage at $12,190 ($3550–$46,120), hepatic encephalopathy at $9180 ($5370–$50,120), diuretic sensitive ascites at $3400 ($1320–$7470), compensated cirrhosis at $820 ($50–$2890), and chronic hepatitis C at $280 ($90–$1860). The variation among studies was mainly due to the methodology used to assess cost, local cost and government reimbursement, and country-specific treatment protocols.

Limitations:

All costs were adjusted to 2010 US dollars using the US medical component of the consumer price index (CPI) which may not reflect the change in medical costs in other countries. In addition, the costs, in the local currency were converted to US dollars in the year of the study. However, medical expenses may not vary with exchange rate, leading to artificial variations. Finally, there was no assessment of the quality of individual studies, which resulted in the same weighting to all studies.

Conclusions:

Hepatitis C imposes a high economic burden globally. Knowing the burden of HCV sequelae is useful for policy decisions as well as serving as a basis for determining the value of HCV screening and treatment.     

Unemployment and the dynamics of political support for economic reforms

I analyze the dynamics of political support for economic reforms using a version of Rodrik's (1995) two-sector model of the transition economy. The key role is played by the pattern of flows between the state and private sectors and unemployment. It is shown that while the workers in the private sector always support rapid reforms, the workers in the state sector and the unemployed will support rapid reforms only at the outset of the transition. Later, state-sector workers and unemployed vote for a reduction in the speed of reforms.     

全球海上风电产业发展现状及对我国的启示

海上风电产业是近年来世界各国为解决能源危机和环境污染问题而加大投入发展的热点领域。目前全球海上风电产业已形成以北欧为中心的经济格局,亚洲和北美正在进入全球市场。文章系统总结和分析了欧盟海上风电发展现状,论述了亚洲中日韩三国海上风电的发展情况,总结了美国海上风电发展的制约因素,并针对我国的具体情况,提出三点建议。