Predictors of unrealistic optimism: a study of Norwegian risk takers

In areas of voluntary risk behaviour, as with other kinds of risk, people tend to be overly optimistic regarding not being injured. A study of risk perception and causal explanations of injury assessments was conducted on 199 respondents from three different sub‐groups in Norway; skydivers (n?=?88), fire fighters (n?=?73) and soldiers (n?=?38). Unrealistic optimism was studied by means of four demographic variables: the background of the subject (sub‐sample), gender, age, and education. In addition, three predictors of unrealistic optimism were taken into account—safety attitudes, control, and anxiety. These predictors were included in an Analysis of Linear Structural Relationship (LISREL) analysis. The results showed that optimism differed between the sub‐groups, and that different factors influenced risk perception depending on the group and depending on whether the assessment was of oneself or of others. These findings offers additional information that will help explain the inconsistent findings in the current literature of unrealistic optimism. Of the predictors investigated, safety attitudes were found to be the most important, which may be because respondents preoccupied with safety are more aware of potential dangers and thereby less optimistic.     

保险承保风险引致系统性风险的空间复杂网络分析

基于2008-2019年中国各省份财险和寿险月度经营数据,使用TENET风险模型构建了省份间承保风险的空间溢出网络,量化了各省份承保风险可能导致的系统性风险水平,回归分析了产生影响的各种因素.结果表明,各省份承保风险空间关联性相对较低,省份间传染极低,不太可能引发系统性风险.各省份蕴含的系统性风险水平存在显著差异,具有从东部向西部递减的特征.样本期内,财险业承保风险的空间溢出总量基本稳定,寿险业经历了先上升后下降的过程.各省份风险状况及保险资金运用是导致差异的关键因素,监管可据此施策.     

How do we handle new health risks? Risk perception,optimism, and behaviors regarding the H1N1 virus

During Autumn 2009, individuals worldwide were confronted with a new risk, the H1N1 (swine flu) virus and vaccination programs aimed at reducing this risk. We examine the hypothesis that risk perceptions for H1N1 as well as optimism about one’s own chances of contracting H1N1 vs. those of others would impact intentions to get vaccinated against the virus as well as avoidance behaviors such as avoiding air travel, public places where people gather, and those exhibiting flu-like symptoms. To examine this hypothesis, this study uses a survey of 944 residents of Great Britain taken from 2 to 8 October 2009 by Ipsos MORI, prior to the start of the National Health Service (NHS) swine flu vaccination campaign. Controlling for respondents’ personal characteristics as well as their risk perceptions for a familiar risk (food poisoning), we find that higher perceptions about the risk of H1N1 for oneself, trust in the NHS, avoiding those with flu-like symptoms, and having an at-risk condition for H1N1 are all significant and positive predictors of intent to vaccinate against the virus. While 42% of the sample exhibited optimism about their personal risk of contracting H1N1 relative to that of the average UK resident, optimism did not predict vaccination intentions, or avoidance behaviors. Higher risk perceptions for oneself regarding susceptibility to H1N1 as well as knowing friends who have had H1N1 and having an at-risk condition for H1N1 were associated with undertaking avoidance behaviors in general and a higher number of them. We conclude that for a risk about which individuals have limited reference points and great uncertainty because of the new nature of the risk, optimism does not influence the likelihood of associated preventive or avoidance behaviors as individuals rely on their risk perceptions only about themselves.     

变额年金在我国的应用及风险管理探讨

采用对比法和归纳法,从变额年金的风险因素入手,通过对比国外比较成熟的风险管理评估模式和风险管理需要的外部条件等因素的探讨,为变额年金在风险管理模式、最低保证利益设计等方面提出一定的建议。     

Assessing business risk: The case of Premier Punch, Inc

The recently issued Statement on Auditing Standards No. 109, Understanding the Entity and Its Environment and Assessing the Risks of Material Misstatement, emphasizes the need for auditors to understand the client’s business and environment, particularly the client’s business risk [American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) (2006a), understanding the entity and its environment and assessing the risks of material misstatement, Statement on Auditing Standards No. 109. New York, NY: AICPA]. However, the manner in which auditors obtain such an understanding, especially an auditor’s assessment of a client’s business risk, is often challenging for students because they lack the business experience necessary to perform such an assessment. This case provides students with an opportunity to assess business risk in a realistic context that includes evidence beyond the content of the financial statements. Company information is provided via a webpage (www.premierpunch.com) with content similar to that of an actual investor relations site. Students must evaluate the information presented in the company’s annual report, press releases and other sources, and consider the impact of that information on several facets of business risk. Students also perform an analytical review of the company’s financial statements and synthesize the case information into a professional memo containing their assessment of business risk.     

What role for social scientists in risk expertise?

When it comes to risks – health and environmental risks, like those linked to the use of nanotechnologies, pesticides, etc. – three main groups of actors are easily identified, brought together through boundary organisations such as environmental and sanitary risk agencies: the natural and technical scientists, who provide their expertise to assess risks (especially toxicologists, epidemiologists and microbiologists); the policy makers, who take decisions regarding risk management and risk regulation; the lay public, who are more and more involved in participatory frameworks. Sometimes three other groups of actors are added: the ‘economists’ who can for instance conduct cost–benefit assessments or multi-criteria analyses (especially ecological economists, public economists, political economists and social economists); the ‘philosophers’/‘ethicists’ who can use ethics to highlight moral choices and responsibilities in face of risks; and the ‘jurists’/‘legal experts’ who can justify authorisation or interdiction according to law. Inversely, there is a group of actors which is not clearly identified, that of social scientists, even though a considerable quantity of social science knowledge on risk has been produced. Why is there such a discrepancy? This article, based on a critical review of the literature, aims to make sense of the fuzziness surrounding the involvement of social scientists when it comes to risk expertise. The article shows that one reason for this puzzling situation is to be found in the gap between what social scientists often want to do when they are called in as risk experts and what natural scientists and public policy makers actually expect from them.     

建立社会稳定风险评估机制探析

随着我国改革开放的进一步深入,经济高速发展,社会进入转型发展的关键时期,保持社会和谐稳定成为实现经济社会全面协调可持续发展的重要保障和必然要求,因此建立社会稳定风险评估机制是促进社会主义和谐社会建设的重要制度和手段。本文首先明确了社会稳定风险内涵,然后阐述了社会稳定风险评估作为独立风险评估制度存在的重要意义,对社会稳定风险评估中的一些重要问题进行了论证,最后提出了进行社会稳定风险评估的一般模型,以期对处于探索阶段的社会稳定风险评估实践提供一定的借鉴和指导。     

模糊聚类分析在金融机构洗钱风险评估中的应用

聚类分析是数理统计中的一种分析方法,是用数学方法定量地确定样本的亲疏关系,从而客观地进行分类。本文主要以模糊聚类分析在金融机构洗钱风险评估中的应用进行实例研究,对聚类的结果进行了分析,并提出了建议措施。     

证券交易策略的风险评估：一个风险收益模型

木文以二项分布为基础,建立一个风险收益模型作为证券交易策略风险评估的理论依据。该模型从理论和实证上证明：在单次交易的收益率不变以及不考虑交易成本的条件下,交易策略的长期风险不依赖于交易次数,只取决于正收益相对负收益的幅度,而不取决于正收益在总交易次数中的比率。该模型作为风险评估工具为证券交易策略提供了理论基础,同时给出了通过计算交易策略的alpha值来估计其长期风险的预测方法。