保险平滑政府自然灾害涉灾支出波动风险研究——以地震巨灾财政指数保险为例

我国重大自然灾害频发,导致政府财政救灾与灾后重建等涉灾支出波动较大,影响经济平稳运行,探索平滑财政涉灾支出波动风险的机制具有重要的现实意义.本文通过构建政府财政对地震巨灾救灾与重建支出负担积累模型,根据我国1990 ～2018年的地震损失数据,预测2019 ～2026年地震巨灾财政指数保险不同保险金额下,我国地震巨灾财...     

The determinants of integrating policy-based and community-based adaptation into coastal hazard risk management: a resilience approach

Abstract

A growing number of studies focus on improving the understanding of how the households’ adaptations can be encouraged in the process of coastal hazards and risk management. Particularly, this process is undergoing a major paradigm shift as it moves from an approach dominated by policy-based adaptation to another one in which community-based resilience building is favored. Thus, this article aims to apply a resilience approach to improve the knowledge about how public measures influence private autonomous adaptation behavior, through a transdisciplinary investigation of household adaptation behavior and its determinants. The Resilience Framework of Household Autonomous Adaptation to Climate- and Weather-Related Hazard Risks (ROHACHR) is proposed and combined with a focus group meeting and multivariate analysis to compare pre-disaster, during a disaster, post-disaster adaptations, and resilience behavior of households. Using an empirical survey of the households in three coastal municipalities in Taiwan, we examine the relationships between public measures and private adaptations that provides three distinguishing types of household behavior: ‘core’, ‘trust in governmental aid’, and ‘awareness and structures’. Results show that providing hazard risk information may be one step toward encouraging private autonomous adaptations. Several factors that help foster resilience also appear to be influential in households’ adaptation decisions, such as specific and positive governmental aid, information trust, and social capital. Based on these results, it shows that the ROHACHR is useful to characterize households’ adaptation and resilience behavior and explain how they respond to public measures. Finally, the policy implications of our findings for improving resilience of coastal communities and encouraging public-private collaboration in the process of hazard risk management are discussed.     

Community social capital and individual disaster preparedness in immigrants and Canadian-born individuals: an ecological perspective

Abstract

Psychological research on the predictors of disaster preparedness has mainly focused on individual-level factors, although the social environment plays an important role. Our goal is to provide a systemic perspective to help improve risk communication and risk management for natural disaster risks. We examined how community-level social capital related to individual-level disaster preparedness in immigrants compared with Canadian-born individuals. We characterised participants’ communities’ social capital by conceptually linking two national surveys using postal codes. We performed sequential linear multiple regression analysis to examine the relationship between community social capital and individual disaster preparedness. Results revealed three components of social capital: societal trust, interaction with friends, and neighbourhood contact. Societal trust positively predicted the extent to which immigrants and Canadian-born individuals knew someone who would search for them post-disaster. Interestingly, results revealed that Canadian-born individuals were more likely to uptake emergency planning when living in a community with strong societal trust, while the reverse was true for immigrants. Results suggest that some components of social capital may have an effect on certain preparedness behaviours. Societal trust could have both positive and negative effects on emergency planning depending on individuals’ immigrant status. Risk communication and risk management should consider social capital as part of the framework for effective disaster preparedness.     

Drought,resettlement and accounting

Drought, an insidious form of natural disaster, occurs frequently in the United States. The droughts of the 1930s were a national emergency which combined with economic depression to cause widespread rural poverty and distress. Governmental responses to the crisis were many and included the establishment of experimental resettlement projects for dislocated families. Operated by liberal, socially progressive agencies, these projects attempted to re-establish farm families on more productive land in less arid areas. One such project was the Red River Valley Farms Project in North Dakota. Here, business and home planning, budgeting and record keeping by client families was compulsory. Drawing on the notion of the ‘heroic bureaucracy’, this historical study reveals accounting as a key facilitative technology in the recovery phase of a disaster. The comprehensive accounting records maintained by each family contributed to their successful resettlement and provided the government agency with copious data for monitoring the performance of the project, measuring the progress of its participants, and identifying where support was most needed.     

Tax incentives for inefficient executive pay and reward for luck

I study the economic consequences of tax deductibility limits on salaries for the design of incentive contracts. The analysis is based on an agency model in which the firm’s cash flow is a function of the agent’s effort and an observable random factor beyond the agent’s control. According to my analysis, limiting the tax deductibility of fixed wages has two consequences. The principal rewards the agent on the basis of the observable random factor and adjusts the amount of performance-based pay in the optimal incentive contract. The new contract can have weaker or stronger work incentives than without the tax. The theoretical findings have implications for empirical compensation research. First, the analysis shows that reward for luck can be the optimal response to recent tax law changes, whereas earlier empirical literature has attributed this phenomenon to managerial entrenchment. Second, I demonstrate that a simple regression analysis that fails to control for separable measures of luck is likely to find an increased pay for performance sensitivity as a response to the introduction of tax deductibility limits on salaries even if the pay for performance sensitivity has actually declined.     

Tourism at Costalegre,Mexico: An ecosystem services-based exploration of current challenges and alternative futures

Tourism, as all human activities, is dependent on the natural environment and its respective ecosystem services (ES). Different user groups manage and consume these touristic ES differently, resulting in discrepancies and potential conflicts. Despite the urgency to find inclusive local approaches for sustainable development, tourism studies still analyze socio-economic and ecological impacts separately and lack integrated social–ecological approaches to improve foresight in tourism planning. Based on a growing concern regarding the future of Costalegre on the Jalisco coast of Western Mexico, we analyze through interviews, surveys, and participant observation the dependence of tourism on specific ecosystem services and conduct a scenario analysis which shows present and future implications for the social–ecological system. Furthermore, this analysis shows in detail how different scenarios change ES provision and people's livelihoods. Key findings include identifying freshwater provision and cultural ES as the most important touristic ES. At a regional scale, peasants in ejidos are the main ES stewards, whereas high-class tourism facilities constitute important local stewards. Benefits, mainly access to freshwater and the beach, are unequally distributed, provoking conflicts among different ES user groups that may escalate in the near future. Improved communication between all user groups and strengthening of key political actors seem to be the most immediate recommendations to ensure the long term sustainability of this particular region. This work may contribute to improved planning and decision-making as our ES based scenarios are a first step to integrate social–ecological knowledge into improved decision-making. At a local scale, the study reveals the most likely future development options and their social and ecological consequences. It could also serve as a baseline for informed policy making.     

An Ex Post Assessment of Investor Response to Catastrophes

A large body of research has examined abnormal stock returns for insurance companies in the wake of major catastrophes. Most of these studies have investigated the ex ante factors that investors may consider when generating expectations of future profits, represented by postcatastrophe stock returns. We instead ask whether these expectations were ultimately correct by investigating the relationship between returns and the disaster’s effect on future earnings. We find that returns immediately following a disaster are not associated with future earnings. Approximately six days following a catastrophe, however, returns begin to show a significant positive relationship with future earnings. This relationship becomes stronger in subsequent days. We conclude that investors are unable to correctly predict a disaster’s net impact on profits immediately after a disaster because existing public information is insufficient or misunderstood. Only once insurers begin disclosing their estimated losses can investors make accurate predictions about a disaster’s effect on earnings. Our study shows that the investor expectations inferred in much of the existing literature are not predictive of future profits. Our findings are consistent with semistrong-form market efficiency in the wake of a major disaster.     

Market response of US equities to domestic natural disasters: industry-based evidence

This study investigates US industry-based price response to domestic natural disasters over the period 1960–2015. Using an event study methodology, we estimate pre-, during and post-disaster impacts. We document a slower response in the pre-disaster period than in the post-disaster period. We further find that industries react differently to the same disaster and that reactions are not always negative. For example, meteorological disasters have a positive (negative) market impact on Gold (Banking). Moreover, we provide evidence that not every industry responds similarly to different disasters, e.g., Gold reacts positively (negatively) to meteorological (geophysical) disasters.     

银行承担社会责任对其竞争力的影响研究——基于银行服务的“质”与“量”中介视角

本文基于2010-2018年中国16家上市银行面板数据,探讨银行承担社会责任对其竞争力的影响。研究发现,大型银行和中小型银行承担社会责任均能提高自身竞争力,并且正效应存在一定的持续性;大型银行承担社会责任对银行竞争力的正效应更强;银行承担社会责任能够通过金融创新和信贷供给两条渠道,改善银行服务的"质"与"量",最终促进竞争力提升。     

What Doesn't Kill You Will Only Make You More Risk‐Loving: Early‐Life Disasters and CEO Behavior

The literature on managerial style posits a linear relation between a chief executive officer's (CEOs) past experiences and firm risk. We show that there is a nonmonotonic relation between the intensity of CEOs’ early‐life exposure to fatal disasters and corporate risk‐taking. CEOs who experience fatal disasters without extremely negative consequences lead firms that behave more aggressively, whereas CEOs who witness the extreme downside of disasters behave more conservatively. These patterns manifest across various corporate policies including leverage, cash holdings, and acquisition activity. Ultimately, the link between CEOs’ disaster experience and corporate policies has real economic consequences on firm riskiness and cost of capital.     

Societal consequences of radioactive releases in March 2011 in Japan and implications for the resilience concept

The nuclear accident in Japan in March 2011 was an extreme event and studies of its consequences can offer new insights into long-term effects on society. This study of societal consequences in November 2012 is a follow-up of a previous study of the most important consequences a year earlier. At twenty months after the accident, the radioactive contamination and ensuing need for decontamination still dominates since reconstruction and return of evacuees cannot begin until an area has been decontaminated. Health concerns remain, although extensive screening is under way, and the results so far indicate that the risks for negative effects are low. The costs to society of these and other consequences of the nuclear accident are huge and will continue to grow. The future consequences related to the radioactive substances released in 2011 will develop as a function of the relatively long half-life of cesium-137 (ca. 30 years) and the perception of the situation guiding human and organisational behaviour. Temporal and spatial scales are noticeable in how the consequences have developed. A systems perspective also appears to be valid. These observations are used to explore the definition of resilience by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. This showed that the definition can apply to an extreme disaster, that it constructs resilience as a graded property and that it encompasses both proactive and reactive resilience. However, the underpinning abilities to resist, absorb, accommodate and recover as well as their internal relations need further exploration and discussion. The discussion here shows that examining resilience in relation to a real event can be fruitful for understanding the concept and its definition.     

跟踪审计的机理与方法研究——基于汶川特大地震灾后恢复重建审计经验

跟踪审计是国家审计发展的新兴方式。通过实施提前介入、全程跟踪、着眼预防、着力防范的跟踪审计模式,有利于及时化解矛盾,促进灾后和谐重建;有利于促进灾后恢复重建政策的落实和完善,促进灾后科学重建;有利于政府合理应对和处置突发性公共事件。为发挥国家审计免疫系统的功能和确保灾后重建审计目标的实现,组织实施跟踪审计应根据灾后恢复重建资金与物资的筹集、分配、管理和使用的各个环节来明确审计的基本内容。重点关注灾后恢复重建资金物资应用的合理性、效率性、经济性。组织实施的思路和方法是:事前调查,着眼预防,促进规范,实现审计的预防功能;全程审计,滚动实施,实现审计的识别揭露功能;适时提出审计建议,督促被审计单位及时整改,实现审计的抵御修补功能。要建立全面的信息沟通和运行约束制度;注重综合分析,服务宏观决策;树立科学理念,明晰思路,创新方法。对审计结果要定期公告,以简驭繁,发挥短、平、快的优势,并关注和防范风险。     

深入贯彻落实科学发展观 防范风险 调整结构 促进保险业平稳健康发展

2008年是保险业很不寻常、很不平凡的一年,适应宏观经济形势变化,保险市场平稳较快发展;积极参与抗灾救灾,勇于承担社会责任;有效应对国际金融危机,保持保险市场稳定健康;不断拓展重点领域,服务经济社会发展全局;加强改善保险监管,不断提高监管的科学性和有效性;深入落实科学发展观,学习实践活动取得阶段性成果。纵观国际国内形势,实现2009年保险业又好又快发展的任务更加繁重,应正确把握外部环境的复杂性和严峻性,深刻认识保险业面临的困难和挑战;正确把握保险业处在新阶段的特征,使保险工作更加体现时代性和创造性;正确把握保险业发展的客观规律,增强在新形势下做好保险工作的能力。2009年的保险工作主要是:贯彻落实中央决策部署,更好地服务经济社会发展;坚持防风险、调结构、稳增长,促进行业平稳健康发展;坚持寓监管于服务之中,不断加强改进保险监管。     

社会角色视角下的高校辅导员胜任力研究

本文从辅导员的社会角色出发,分析了辅导员的角色定位和与角色相一致的胜任力问题,以社会角色扮演理论为基本点分析辅导员队伍建设的现状,提出"进入角色"是提升高校辅导员胜任力的途径,并有针对性地提出建立合理性的辅导员准入制度、专业化的辅导员培训体系和科学性辅导员考评机制的建议。高校辅导员是开展大学生思想政治教育的骨干力量,加强辅导员队伍建设要适应推进马克思主义大众化的时代要求和大学生全面发展的实际需要。     

社会适应、政治信任与易地扶贫搬迁政策满意度——基于湖南集中连片特困区搬迁农户调查

为提升易地扶贫搬迁政策的实施绩效,基于湖南省集中连片特困区移民调查数据,通过最优尺度回归模型分析了社会适应与政治信任对易地搬迁政策满意度的影响。结果表明：移民对易地搬迁政策满意度评价较高,移民平均政治信任程度较高,平均社会适应程度处于一般状况;社会适应、政治信任对政策满意度具有显著正向影响,并对政策满意度评价有很高预测效果;家庭人口特征、安置点特征对移民政策满意度也有积极影响,但对满意度预测作用较小。据此针对性地提出提高社会适应性、增强政治信任度的对策建议。     

The NAB foreign currency option losses in the context of a disaster myopia model

In this paper the author develops a model that expands on the ‘disaster myopia’ analysis of Guttentag and Herring and provides an eight-stage process which incorporates the ‘availability heuristic’ of Tversky and Kahneman. The eight-stage disaster myopia process might be recognised as a model which encapsulates the key elements of serious bank loss experiences. The model is shown to be consistent in explaining the earlier bank loss experiences such as Barings Bank and Daiwa Bank. In this paper this model is applied to the recent National Australia Bank (NAB) losses in currency option trading and suggestions are made as to how it might be used to improve the processes of corporate governance that appear to be unable to recognise problems early enough.     

云南政策性森林火灾保险试点调查

云南省森林资源十分丰富,是我国重点生态功能区。2010年云南被列为中央政策性森林火灾保险试点省区。云南政策性森林火灾保险在发挥社会管理功能,推动云南林业发展方式转变,推进"森林云南"建设,构建国家云南"桥头堡"战略具有重要的现实意义。目前,云南政策性森林火灾保险逐渐形成了"灾前协同预防——损失全球补偿——促进灾后恢复林业植被生产——推动云南生态功能区建设"四位一体的功能雏形,被国家林业局等部门称为"云南模式"。本文在对阳光财险云南分公司、呈贡森林防火指挥部、林业部门调研基础上,分析云南政策性森林火灾保险的现状,总结云南政策性森林保险运行特点和面临的困难,并提出完善云南政策性森林火灾保险制度的建议。     

发挥保险行业价值积极承担社会责任服务经济社会建设

近年来保险业积极承担社会责任取得良好成效,成为国家灾害救助体系和社会管理机制的重要组成部分,成为社会保障体系的重要组成部分,成为金融资源配置与稳定机制的重要组成部分,成为国家宏观调控机制的重要组成部分,成为国家创新机制的重要组成部分,成为国家对外经济金融合作对话机制的重要组成部分.在国家加快转变发展方式,政府创新社会管...     

劳动与社会保障专业技能模块课程体系的构建

劳动与社会保障专业在我国已经历了十多年的发展,但是很多院校课程设置仍存在一些问题,导致人才培养与社会需求脱节,学生就业困难。应从理论和实际应用能力两方面着手组织教学,发挥技能模块在该专业人才培养中的作用,提高人才培养质量,使之更好的适应经济社会发展的需要。     

Urban spatial structuring following disasters: empirical findings from location choices of businesses in Adapazari,Turkey

This study argues that ignorance of businesses in disaster management systems from the point of spatial policies leads to deviations from initial recovery goals aiming to create a safer urban environment. Therefore, the paper examines the location choices of businesses in a disaster-stricken case from Turkey through an empirical research conducted after the 1999 Earthquake. In doing so, data were gathered from 232 firms in Adapazari city via a questionnaire to inquire about their location choices before and after the disaster and the reasons behind their strategy. Findings suggest that recovery goals at community level cannot be achieved without referring to the spatial decisions of businesses in hazard-prone areas. With regard to the findings of the study, policy recommendations are developed to guide post-disaster practises from a space-sensitive perspective by focusing on businesses.