An empirical database for a general equilibrium model of the European Communities

We document the main features of a database that has been constructed for use in an applied general equilibrium model. The model is designed to evaluate policies of the European Community (EC), including membership. The database includes each of the major members of the EC in the 1970's: Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Denmark and Ireland. It also includes three further trading regions: the United States, Japan and a residual Rest of World. Four aspects of our database are documented. The first is the collection and use of “raw data” from a number of sources for 1975. The second aspect is the generation of a multi-year database, with 1975 serving as a “reference year” for temporal updates to more recent years. The third aspect is the application of the database to the calibration of a “generic” general-equilibrium trade model. The final aspect is the use of the database to study the historical accession of the United Kingdom to the EC.     

The ‘Value’ of Europe: The Political Economy of Culture in the European Community

During the 1970s and 1980s the “cultural sector” became one of the primary motors for wealth creation in the European Community. At the European and national scales, a group of actors helped transform Europe's vast array of practices and services (tourism, heritage, books, audio-visual products, etc.) into “cultural industries” and pushed the EC to develop a common cultural policy to support these industries. Documenting these changes at the European scale, I argue that the perceived impact of cultural policy for particular national economic competitiveness was also significant. Italian MEPs and members of Italy's national government were especially important, as they fought to protect the country's historical heritage and promote tourism. France pushed the strongest and I show how that country's efforts were primarily intended to protect its audio-visual and publishing industries from the EC internal market's liberalisation policies, which were vocally supported by Britain because they would have served that county's national economic interests.     

Equilibrium Tariff Schedules In Commercial Policy Games Under Uncertainty

Abstract A partial two country equilibrium model is built in which two different exogenous random shocks may occur. the governments simultaneously choose tariff functions relating their specific tariff to the level of an observable variable (volume of trade or international price). In the case of a “volume of trade shock” the Nash equilibria of this game are more protectionist the larger the possible trade swings and autarky is always an equilibrium outcome. In the case of a “terms of trade shock”, constant tariffs, at their Nash equilibrium in specific tariff levels are the only sensible equilibrium outcome.     

A PROTECTIONIST BIAS IN MAJORITARIAN POLITICS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

Do politics affect trade policy? Despite an extensive literature examining the relationship between trade policy and some political factors, relatively few studies have explored the role of a country's electoral system, arguably one of the most fundamental characteristics of a nation's political landscape. This paper examines the empirical relationship between tariffs and electoral systems across countries and over time. The broad theoretical framework is provided by Grossman and Helpman, which predicts a bias towards a non‐zero average tariff, i.e. a “protectionist bias”, in countries with majoritarian systems, since politicians in a majoritarian system aim to maximize the welfare of their home districts, as opposed to the welfare of the nation as a whole. I compare average tariffs of countries with majoritarian systems to those with proportional systems, using methods that address the omitted variables/sample selection problem inherent to this analysis. I find that countries with majoritarian systems do indeed appear to have higher average tariffs than do countries with proportional systems. This result holds after controlling for other country‐specific characteristics, such as a country's legal origins, colonial history, and geographic location.     

An economics for development and peace: With a particular focus on the thought of Ernst F. Schumacher

Ernst F. Schumacher'sSmall is Beautiful seems thoroughly persuasive even at the turn of the century, as reckless material development is increasingly recognized as a threat to peace. This article describes how his thought was influenced by Mahatma Gandhi. Gandhi's and Schumacher's ways of thinking are considered as alternative development theorees, different from any of those stemming from laissez-faire economics or Marxism. The formulation and proliferation of Schumacher's ideas about intermediate technologies are traced in both Indian and global contexts, to evaluate their sufficiency as bases for development. Moreover, their implications for contemporary economics are discussed, with the assistance of Amartya K. Sen's concepts of “capability,” “sympathy” and “commitment,” which are in clear contrast to the conventional concept of “economic man.” Finally, it is concluded that Schumacher's alternative development theories and practices, as well as Sen's economics, may play important roles in development and peace studies in the 21st century.     

The world's greatest debtor nation?

The widely repeated assertion that the United States has become “the world's greatest debtor nation” is based on reports of its “net international investment position.” This position relates not exclusively to debt but rather to the difference between net United States claims to foreign assets and net foreign claims to United States assets. Major portions are equities and direct investment, the latter valued at “book” or original cost.Estimates of the current value of direct investment, either market value on the basis of share prices or replacement cost, effect huge asymmetric adjustments. As United States direct investment abroad is generally much older, it has appreciated much more than foreign direct investment in the United States. With adjustments as well for the market value of gold and for bad debts, it is estimated that the United States net international investment position was more or less in balance at the end of 1987 and in only relatively small deficit at the end of 1988.     

Solow's Harrod: Transforming macroeconomic dynamics into a model of long-run growth

Modern growth theory derives mostly from Solow's “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth” (1956). Solow's own interpretation locates its origins in his view that Harrod's growth model implied a tendency toward progressive collapse of the economy. He formulates his view in terms of Harrod's invoking a fixed-coefficients production function. We challenge Solow's reading of Harrod's “Essay in Dynamic Theory,” arguing that Harrod's object in providing a “dynamic” theory had little to do with the problem of long-run growth as Solow understood it, but instead addressed medium-run fluctuations, the “inherent instability” of economies. Solow's interpretation of Harrod was grounded in a particular culture of understanding embedded in the practice of formal modelling that emerged in economics in the post-Second World War period. Solow's interpretation, which ultimately dominated the profession's view of Harrod, is a case study in the difficulties in communicating across distinct interpretive communities and of the potential for losing content and insights in the process. Harrod's objects – particularly, of trying to account for a tendency of the economy toward chronic recessions – were lost to the mainstream literature.     

Along the Borgesian Frontier: Excavating the Neighbourhood of “Wider Europe”

What would a non-Eurocentric European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) look like? Starting off with this perhaps “impossible” question, the first half of the article traces recent shifts in thinking about ENP on the part of EU administrators and intellectuals who argue for a strengthened and reinvigorated neighbourhood policy around the Southern Mediterranean, Middle East and CIS countries, through what has now been termed a differentiated “ENP plus”. Parsing recent EU reports, opinions and speeches, it isolates a crucial ambiguity within this re-framed policy landscape regarding ENP's relationship to the previous round of EU expansion, which has important political consequences for how ENP currently envisions the thorny problem of transition within the neighbourhood. The second half of the article draws on a parable by the Argentinean novelist-philosopher Jorge Luis Borges to frame more sharply the problem of cartographic representation embedded within ENP. Applying the neologism of a “Borgesian frontier” to the space of the European Neighbourhood, the paper concludes by suggesting some potential pathways for re-imagining this space in ways that work along with, rather than are “blind” to, contradictions inherent to Europe's newly minted external borderland. At stake, the article argues, is a politics that can properly re-envision regions of the world located at the limits of Europe's sovereign spatial imagination.     

Social network structure and status competition

In status competition studies, the utility of heterogeneous individuals typically depends on an economy‐wide average indicator of status. In our model, emulative and jealous agents are embedded in an exogenous network where agent‐specific reference group is determined by the direct link emanating from the agent. Similarly to Ghiglino and Goyal (2010) but in a somewhat different framework, we show that individual consumption is proportional to the agent's “outbound” Katz‐Bonacich network centrality measure and equilibrium is generally inefficient. More important, the negative externality associated with each agent depends on her “inbound” centrality measure—the conspicuousness index. A tax based on this index combined with a uniform lump‐sum transfer attains efficiency.     

美欧创新型国家评价体系分析

美国信息技术与创新基金会的创新竞争力评价指标体系由6个一级指标、16个二级指标构杨,其指标"经济绩效"和"创新能力"是影响国家竞争力的最重要因素;欧盟推出《创新联盟记分牌》,旨在发现欧盟成员国研究和创新体系的相对优劣势,帮助成员国认识自身实力,集中力量提高创新绩效;欧洲工商管理学院推出《全球创新指数》,强调创新环境、基础设施以及相关成果的测度和评价。国外创新测度对于我国开展创新型国家评价具有重要借鉴意义:创新型国家测度的关键是创新绩效测度,应以事实型数据为基础,并根据形势变化不断调整评价指标和体系。     

New insights into the nonlinearity of Okun's law

We estimate Okun's relationship for four European countries (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain) with a nonparametric procedure, without imposing a previous specific functional form. We apply the non parametric MARS methodology that endogenously detects multiple thresholds and therefore is able to identify multiple possible regimes. In addition, we control for the Euro area crisis to capture possible effects of the economic activity of neighbour countries on domestic unemployment rate variations. Our results confirm the existence of two regimes in each country but significantly different thresholds across countries. The form of Okun's relationship for Germany, France and the Netherlands are similar and quite different from Spain where it is much steeper. Differences between Okun coefficients below and above the threshold are consistent with the “firm's risk aversion hypothesis”, but different thresholds across countries may be related to the “labour hoarding hypothesis”. The negative value of the threshold in Spain may reflect the “institutional rigidity hypothesis”. Finally, the fact that the Euro area crisis may affect the domestic Okun's law is consistent with decision makers with risk aversion who use information from the economic area they are operating in. These results not only potentially enrich Okun's law estimations but also open the debate over how the different theoretical hypothesis intervene and shape Okun's law for each country.     

US–Japan Trade Frictions: The Past,the Present,and Implications for the US–China Trade War

The United States and Japan have been involved in trade frictions over a number of products including textiles, steel, automobiles, semi‐conductors, and agricultural products over the last 50 years. US–Japan trade frictions have taken basically two forms: (i) the United States attempting to restrict Japan's exports to the United States; and (ii) the United States attempting to increase its exports to Japan by “opening” the Japanese market. By putting pressure on Japan to adopt necessary measures, the United States sought to achieve two main objectives: (i) to reduce its trade deficit vis‐à‐vis Japan; and (ii) to protect and/or promote US industries. The United States failed to achieve the first objective, while some success was achieved for the second objective. The United States triggered a trade war against China with the objectives of: (i) reducing the bilateral trade deficit; and (ii) stopping unfair trade practices by Chinese firms such as violations of intellectual property rights and forced technology transfer. Based on the experiences from the US–Japan trade frictions, the United States may achieve some success for the second objective, but not for the first. The chances of achieving the second objective would increase if the United States cooperates with countries such as Japan and the European Union, which are faced with similar problems.     

Credible communication in dynastic government

This paper studies information disclosure in a model of dynastic government. When information about past policy choices comes exclusively from the reports of previous administrations, each administration has an incentive to choose its (suboptimal) one-shot expenditure policy, and then misrepresent its choice to its successor. Consequently, it has been suggested that “horizontal accountability,” i.e., a system of governance where auditing functions lie outside the executive branch, can ensure credible disclosure of a government's activities. This paper suggests a cautious approach to that view.The baseline model examines the reporting incentives of an external auditor who can independently verify the information each period. Even with auditing, credible disclosure is shown to be problematic. Various extensions to this baseline model are examined. In one extension, “liberal” (i.e., those prefering larger government expenditures) and “conservative” (those prefering smaller expenditures) regimes and auditors evolve over time. It is shown that “conservative” (“liberal”) auditors are not credible when the current regime is also “conservative” (“liberal”). Moreover, because information transmission stops when the auditor's and the regime's biases coincide, effective deterrents even in the “good” periods (when the auditor's and the administration's biases differ) are difficult to construct. In all periods the equilibrium requirement of auditor neutrality constrains the dynamic incentives for efficient policy choices. These constraints are shown to bind away from optimal policies in standard constructions of equilibrium. Various ways in which auditing protocols can overcome these problems are discussed.     

ENDOGENOUS PUNISHMENTS IN AGENCY WITH VERIFIABLE EX POST INFORMATION*

The article studies an adverse selection model in which a contractible, imperfect signal on the agent's type is revealed ex post. The agent is wealth constrained, which implies that the maximum penalty depends on the contracted transaction (e.g., the volume of trade). First, we show that the qualitative effects of the signal can be unambiguously tied to the nature of the problem (e.g., whether the agent is in a “buyer” or a “seller” position). Second, the distortions caused by informational asymmetries may become more severe although more information is now available. Finally, the signal can actually serve to increase the agent's informational rents.     

Transformation and continuity in Cuba

This article considers the propositions of transition and transformation research with respect to the “deviant case” of still socialist Cuba. A central element of the explanation for Cuba’s “nontransition” is the specific relationship of political continuity and economic transformation - even as the latter is carried out paradoxically largely behind the back of the state and against its officially expressed will. A second decisive factor is the simultaneity of the “political” and the “national” questions, in which Cuba’s political system can present itself as the defender of national sovereignty. The aggressive policy of “exporting democracy” from the United States in the style of the Helms-Burton Law has thus exactly the opposite result: stabilization despite internal crisis and loss of legitimation.     

Price bounds on bond options,swaptions, caps,and floors assuming only nonnegative interest rates

This paper derives bounds on the prices of European and American bond options, caps, floors, and European swaptions assuming only absence of arbitrage and nonnegative interest rates. The bounds are considerably tighter than Merton's bounds on stock option prices, especially for options on short-term bonds or swaps and short-term caps and floors. For American bond options, it is important to distinguish between options on the quoted (“clean”) bond price and options on the actual (“dirty”) bond price. For example, it is shown that it may be optimal to exercise an American call on the quoted bond price early even if the underlying bond makes no payments in the remaining life of the option.     

TESTING THE BAUMOL–NORDHAUS MODEL WITH EU KLEMS DATA

Baumol's (1967 ) seminal model of structural change predicts that large service industries financed mainly through taxes and social contributions—like health care and education, for instance—will acquire ever‐larger shares of total expenditures and that, concomitantly, overall productivity growth will decline. Applying a new testing strategy for Baumol's model, Nordhaus (2008 ) finds strong evidence in favor of the “cost and growth diseases” in U.S. GDP‐by‐industry data (published by the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis). The aim of the present paper is twofold. The first is to check whether Nordhaus's results can be reproduced using U.S. industry data from the EU KLEMS database. Second, Nordhaus's testing methodology is applied to European Union data from the same database. The results suggest that—although there are differences vis‐à‐vis the U.S.—the EU also shows symptoms of “Baumol's diseases.”     

A note on Johansen's cointegration procedure when trends are present

This note discusses some issues that arise when Johansen's (1991) framework is used to analyze cointegrating relationships among variables with deterministic linear time trends. We cistinguish “stochastic” and “deterministic” cointegration, arguing that stochastic cointegration is sufficient for the existence of an error correction representation and that it is often the hypothesis of interest in empirical applications. We show that Johansen's (1991) method, which includes only a constant term in the estimated regession system, does not allow for stochastic cointegration. We propose to modify Johansen's method by including a vector of deterministic linear trends in the estimated model. We present tabulated critical values of the maximal eigenvalue and trace statistics appropriate for this case. We discuss the circumstances under which our modification may be useful.     

The So-Called 2015 Migration Crisis and Euroscepticism in Border Regions: Facing Re-Bordering Trends in the Danish–German Borderlands

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the role of Euroscepticism on regional cross-border cooperation between Germany and Denmark. It demonstrates that Euroscepticism, while absent from local mainstream politicians, had already caused civic unrest in the 1997 attempts to construct a return to history Euro-region Schleswig. It resulted in a re-scaling of the Euro-Region to Region and Schleswig to “Sønderjylland/Schleswig”, omitting any reference to Europe, European identity or a commitment to a closer European union in the relevant agreements. Border controls, on the agenda in 2011 and again since 2015, have demonstrated the institutional weakness of cross-border politics when faced with determined initiatives from the national center. Furthermore, the Eurosceptic Danish People’s Party had its best results in the border precincts both at the latest European and Danish national elections. Euroscepticism, even though difficult to measure on a regional level, seems to have been an ever present underneath current despite a political rhetoric of successful cooperation and cross-border reconciliation. The Danish-German case’s development might be more distinct, but nonetheless representative for European border (and cross-border) regions. While European metropolises develop into thriving cosmopolitan post-nation state societies, this is not necessary the case at Europe’s borders, where categorization and bordering remain common social practices by the large majority of national borderlanders with only a small portion of transnational borderlanders or ‘regionauts’ getting involved in border crossing social practices on a larger scale.     

The distance between Buchanan's “An Economic Theory of Clubs” and Tiebout's “A Pure Theory of Local Public Expenditures”. New insights based on an unpublished manuscript

This article introduces Buchanan's comment on Tiebout's “A Pure Theory of Local Public Expenditures”. It helps us to understand the nature of the relationship between Buchanan and Tiebout. Usually, it is claimed that Buchanan modelled Tiebout's insights, that there exists a Buchanan-Tiebout hypothesis, and that Buchanan in 1965 complemented what Tiebout had written in 1956. We show that Buchanan could not have written “An Economic Theory of Clubs” as a complement of “A Pure Theory of Local Public Expenditures”. He disagreed with Tiebout's ideas on mobility because he saw mobility as a cause of inefficiencies and not a cause of homogeneity in groups. This is what we show by putting Buchanan's comment on Tiebout into historical perspective. It appears that Buchanan interpreted Tiebout 1956 from the perspective of his works on fiscal federalism from the early 1950s. We show that there is a continuity between Buchanan's work from the early 1950s and his works in the early 1970s; and Buchanan's way of reading Tiebout is part of it. Hence, when he wrote “An Economic Theory of Clubs”, Buchanan was convinced that Tiebout was wrong and that he was offering an alternative framework for public economics.