不确定性、风险偏好与利润基数

激励理论是近30年来经济学发展的主要成就,在国外,其理论框架已基本形成。然而国内还没有对其系统化,较受关注的是一些激励机制的应用性问题。其中,联合基数确定法是一种简明有效的基数确定方式,在实际应用中取得了较大经济效益。但是,由于此模型过于简化,难以确定是否从理论意义上与最优的基数安排相一致,这就需要将其置于标准的委托代理框架下来审视其作用机制。     

Emerging risk of autoignition and fire in underground coal storage

The risk and prevention of autoignition in underground coal storage facilities are reviewed in the light of the recent incidents of smouldering fires. Also, the opportunities are considered on the efficiency of the alternatives to prevent and extinguish closed-space fires. The complexities in avoiding and extinguishing underground fires are highlighted in the case example, describing the observations and outcome of a smouldering coal fire in the storage. The principles of self-heating and most critical factors in spontaneous combustion such as the condition and quality of coal are fairly well known, but usually only provide partial help in fire prevention. The documented cases and the case example suggest that nitrogen injection can be useful for extinguishing controllable fires. Three-phase foams and oxygen-displacing exhaust gases appear preferable against uncontrolled fires, particularly if access to the fire area is limited or impossible. Otherwise, efficient fire extinction during power plant operation can be challenging, as any air ingress tends to feed the fire and results in losses of the extinguishing agent and the heating value of coal. Methods and indicators for detecting and predicting the ignition are discussed, and improvements are suggested to enhance the storage and plant availability.     

Privatization and Fiscal Deficits in European Emerging Markets

Privatization and fiscal deficits have been linked theoretically as emerging market countries completed transitions from command to market-based economies. This study examines the joint relationships among relative fiscal deficits, privatization, and exogenous factors for twenty-five Central and Eastern European emerging market countries. Pooled regression models suggest that increased privatization does not reduce fiscal deficits, but fiscal deficits increase as privatization increases over time. These effects are dependent upon the set of countries considered and the privatization measure employed. There is limited support for the hypothesis that privatization is increased when fiscal deficits decline for the nine early privatizers.     

理解战略性新兴产业的发展——概念、可能的市场失灵与发展定位

本文将战略性产业概括为体现国家经济发展和国家竞争力的战略意图,具有范围经济、规模经济、集聚经济等特征,是对产业结构高级化产生重要推动作用的产业。在此基础上,界定了战略性新兴产业发展依赖于技术创新,具体表现为活动要素、企业组织、生产者服务和公共资源的＂四化＂,对可能存在的市场失灵进行了剖析,比较了发展战略性新兴产业的三种定位方式,得出各地选择＂专业化—一体化＂是最合理的定位方式。     

Reserve overstocking in a highly integrated world. New evidence from Asia and Latin America†

Monthly data are used to investigate reserves management in eight Asian and Latin American countries. Idiosyncratic explanatory variables enter into co-integration relationships based on a stochastic buffer stock model, where a reserve variability measure is obtained via conditional variance approaches. International factors influence the co-integration residuals (representing the excess demands for reserves), which tend to co-move within and across geographical areas. Principal components analysis is then implemented to associate their common drivers with the US fed fund effective interest rate and real-effective exchange rate. This two-step approach sheds light on some controversial aspects of reserves and exchange rate management, such as ‘fear of floating’ and mercantilist behavior. Our results suggest that the size of recent excess reserve holdings is probably overstated.     

Financial dollarization in Russia: causes and consequences

We review some aspects of financial dollarization in Russia, applying the main relevant theories to analyse the dynamics of several dollarization indicators. An econometric model of the short-run dynamics of deposit and loan dollarization is estimated for the last decade. We find that ruble appreciation was the main driver of the de-dollarization that occurred then and of the later episode of renewed dollarization. We estimate the overall (and sectoral) currency mismatches of the Russian economy. Evidence is presented for the significant currency risk vulnerability of the non-banking private sector.     

Anomalías en la autocorrelación de rendimientos y la importancia de los periodos de no transacción en mercados latinoamericanos

This paper aims to determine the evidence of returns autocorrelation for the main Latin American stock markets, and the influence of the day of the week effect on this phenomenon. Also, we analyze the importance of non-trading periods and their incidence on stock markets returns. We determine a high autocorrelation in most of the stock markets analyzed, both in local and global currency and the day-of-the-week effect on only some of the stock markets. Evidence of correlation between trading periods returns and those of non-trading periods is also found.     

Stock Market Volatility in an Emerging Market: Further Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange

We investigate the time series properties of the daily and weekly returns from the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) index for the years 1987 to 1997. We investigate whether important time-series characteristics have changed significantly over time. The Greek market has recently undergone major changes including complete capital flow liberalization, the implementation of computerized trading, as well as significant increases in market volume and capitalization; we thus contrast the 1987–90 and 1991–97 periods. Our findings suggest the dynamics of the ASE composite index returns have changed as the market has developed.     

Inflation Targeting Around the World

This paper examines the inflation record of twenty-nine inflation- and noninflation-targeting economies. Both industrial and emerging market economies are considered. Empirical evidence is based on a comparison of actual and forecasted inflation, an econometric analysis that estimates changes in inflation persistence, and an estimate of the probability of a breach in the inflation target as a proxy for the fragility of the targeting regime. I find that inflation persistence has fallen in only a handful of emerging market economies. However, the inflationtargeting regime is not especially fragile in emerging market economies. As these economies gain experience with inflation targets and respond appropriately to forecast errors generated by the private sector, the likelihood of breaches in the target ranges tends to fall.     

Heterogeneity of Funds and Information Disclosure: Evidence

Institutional investors, especially public funds, play an important role in governing listed firms as they grow in Chinese stock markets. We classify each fund as “dedicated,” “transient,” or “mixed,” according to the concentration, turnover, and profit sensitivity of their stock holdings. We find that listed firms with more shares held by dedicated funds have a higher disclosure quality, while firms with more shares held by transient funds have a lower disclosure quality. These findings are consistent in different model settings. In addition, dedicated funds improve the disclosure quality of non-state-owned enterprises more than state-owned enterprises. Dedicated funds can benefit from the lower debt-financing cost and higher stock liquidity of firms with better disclosure quality.