Challenges for current quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models to describe explicitly the road tunnel safety level

The number of road tunnels in Europe has increased rapidly over the last years. Nevertheless, this increasing number is raising upfront an endogenous problem, which is the severity of accidents that may occur. After the spate of tunnel fires in Europe over the past decade, the European Commission embarked upon a major review of road tunnel safety and launched the Directive 2004/54/EC that sets minimum safety requirements and suggests, apart from the measures imposed based on tunnel characteristics, the implementation of a risk assessment in several cases. As a result, many risk assessment methods have been proposed worldwide, most of them based on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models. Although QRAs are helpful to address physical aspects and facilities of the infrastructures, current approaches in the road tunnel field have several challenges to meet in order to provide decision-makers with the overall risk picture. Taking into account that QRAs are progressively becoming the selected method to manage tunnel safety and risk, this paper’s purpose is twofold. On the one hand, it aims to inform safety managers and engineers about items which are not adequately handled by current road tunnel QRA models. On the other hand, it aims to suggest potential areas in which improvements should be made. Taking into consideration the challenges and the limitations discussed herein, this paper concludes that QRA models should not be the single criterion for the safety assessment process of these critical infrastructures.     

Risk assessment and risk decision-making process related to hazardous installation in France

The chemical process industry gathers critical infrastructures since chemical plants represent for the society both an instrument to generate activity and benefits (production of goods, employment, services …), and an instrument that can harm people and the environment. This paper describes the risk assessment approach need in France for licensing hazardous installations, in particular those covered by the Seveso II Directive and the implication for land-use planning. The first part explains why the French risk assessment procedure is based on the quantitative evaluation of major accident scenarios with explicit criteria, and only on qualitative analysis of the risk reducing measures without explicit criteria. The second part shows some on-going evolutions in the risk assessment process in particular for the analysis of the safety barriers. In the third part, the authors share some thoughts on the risk decision-making process.     

The criteria of acceptable risk in Russia

There do not exist acceptable risk criteria of any industrial activity in Russia. The authors analysed worldwide criteria of acceptable risk, industrial accident frequencies in Russia, and the real state that the technological equipment is in. Risk-reduction measures would require a significant amount of material input in Russia. In the present condition of the Russian economy this is practically impossible. For that reason, the establishment of risk levels of 10^?6 or less (fatalities per year) for the population living near major hazards plants (that would correspond to international practice) cannot be arranged for all industrial activities at present. Therefore, the following structure of zoning can be offered for individual risks. For existing potentially dangerous objects: (1) a risk level larger than 10^?4 deaths per year is a zone of inadmissible risk; (2) a risk level between 10^?4 and 10^?5 deaths per year is a zone of rigid risk control; (3) a risk level below 10^?5 deaths per year is a zone of acceptable risk. For new plants: the risk levels should be reduced one order of magnitude for each zone. Taking into account the results of the analysis of emergencies in Russia, the criteria of societal risk are also presented.     

Insider employee stock option trading and stock prices

The question of which factors determine corporate bonds pricing is investigated by analysing the spreads of eurobonds issued by major G-10 companies during the 1991–2001 period. Three main results emerge from the analysis. First, bond ratings appear as the most important determinant of yield spreads, with investors’ reliance on rating agencies judgments increasing over time. Second, the primary market efficiency and the expected secondary market liquidity are not relevant explanatory factors of spreads cross-sectional variability. Finally, rating agencies adopt a different, ‘through the cycle’, evaluation criteria of default risk with respect to the forward looking one adopted by bond investors.     

Utilitarianism and risk

Abstract

In day-to-day life, we are continuously exposed to different kinds of risk. Unfortunately, avoiding risk can often come at societal or individual costs. Hence, an important task within risk management is deciding how much it can be justified to expose members of society to risk x in order to avoid societal and individual costs y – and vice versa. We can refer to this as the task of setting an acceptable risk threshold. Judging whether a risk threshold is justified requires normative reasoning about what levels of risk exposure that are permissible. One such prominent normative theory is utilitarianism. According to utilitarians, the preferred risk threshold is the one that yields more utility for the most people compared to alternative risk thresholds. In this paper, I investigate whether and the extent to which utilitarian theory can be used to normatively ground a particular risk threshold in this way. In particular, I argue that there are (at least) seven different utilitarian approaches to setting an acceptable risk threshold. I discuss each of these approaches in turn and argue that neither can satisfactorily ground an acceptable risk threshold.     

保险客户价值评估新方法及其应用初探

财产保险公司往往用综合成本率等传统财务指标来衡量某类客户的价值,以此作为各项经营决策的重要依据。但该类指标容易导致经营决策的短期倾向,不能有效对接资本市场对上市保险公司的价值评估要求,也不能很好的适应“偿二代”监管体系。笔者提出一种新方法——风险收益分析法来评估客户价值,运用风险的定量模型．综合评估不同客群的收益和风险水平。客观评价客户价值。同时本文探讨了该方法在业务策略、承保规则制定、再保方案、绩效评估等领域的应用方案。     

关于国有商业银行信贷资产风险管理的战略思考

加强信贷资产的风险管理水平,提高资产质量,防范和化解不良资产是国有商业银行增强赢利能力、提高竞争力的重要手段,也是国有商业银行目前的首要任务.本文从经济金融全球化对国有商业银行信贷风险管理的影响出发,提出国有商业银行要树立正确的风险管理观念,并设计了国有商业银行信贷风险管理的若干原则、总体框架和战略步骤.为配合国有商业银行信贷资产风险管理战略的实施,作者还提出了以下改革举措,包括:调整信贷内部结构;再造信贷管理流程;创新不良资产处置方式;正确选择和安排财务策略;建立信息和法律支撑平台、激励和处罚体系及信贷风险文化等.     

构建工商银行先进信贷风险文化研究

风险管理是商业银行经营管理的核心,先进的信贷风险文化是成功管理信贷风险的基础。目前工商银行正处于风险管理革命与产权革命并存的关键时期,提升工商银行的核心竞争力,构建有效兼顾业务发展与风险控制的先进信贷风险文化显得尤为重要。本文运用现代管理学和金融工程学理论,从打造工商银行核心竞争力的现实要求出发,借鉴国内外银行经验,结合工商银行信贷经营实践,阐述了信贷文化与风险管理的辩证关系,并从精神、制度、行为和物质等四个层面勾画了构建工商银行先进信贷风险文化的路线图。     

Procedure for the Implementation of the Precautionary Principle in Biosafety Commissions

In order to fulfil their responsibilities under the precautionary principle, biosafety commissions should lay down guidelines concerning the understanding and application of this principle and work towards an operational procedure. With this contribution, we propose a step‐wise procedure that aims to establish the understanding of the precautionary principle within biosafety commissions and to provide a methodological approach for the application of this principle to specific cases in the course of risk assessment. This approach is based on systematically investigating the consensus view within a group of 15 biosafety experts with the help of sets of checklists. For step 1, we propose a checklist of 13 criteria aimed at defining the understanding of the precautionary principle. For step 2, we propose 4 criteria for the decision on whether or not to use the precautionary principle. For step 3, 11 criteria for the use of the precautionary principle are presented. In step 4, additional criteria for specific applications could be included. In step 5, possible recommendations to decision‐making authorities are proposed.     

Update rules for convex risk measures

In the first part of the paper we investigate the properties that describe the intertemporal structure of dynamic convex risk measures. The usual backward approach to dynamic risk assessment leads to strong and weak versions of time consistency. As an alternative, we introduce a forward approach of consecutivity. In the second part we discuss the problem of how to update a convex risk measure when new information arrives. We analyse to what extent the above properties are appropriate update criteria.     

Risk selection in the London political risk insurance market: the role of tacit knowledge,trust and heuristics

This study demonstrates that the basis of decision-making and risk selection in the London Political Risk Insurance (PRI) market is a combination of Art and Science with such factors as trust and reputation playing an important role. The study breaks new ground by uncovering and examining different methods and strategies of political risk underwriting employed in the insurance market, which does not rely on statistical tools as seen in more traditional insurance types. Adopting a grounded theory approach, the data was generated through 14 semi-structured and unstructured interviews conducted with PRI experts from five PRI companies and two leading political risk broking houses. The data also included documentation reviews and observations.     

损失分布模型在操作风险中的应用分析

随着巴塞尔协议的公布,操作风险(Operational Risk)的量化模型已经成为银行业目前研究的主要课题。本文按照巴塞尔协议规定,利用损失分布方法(Loss Distribution Approach,LDA)来度量操作风险,这种方法的优点在于分别度量损失事件发生频度以及损失幅度,然后利用组合分布方法来研究一段时间内的累积损失分布。本文主要讨论在商业银行内部如何执行LDA以及引入操作风险在险值(Valueat Risk,VaR)的概念,并且介绍了能够反映损失分布的分布函数。同时按照巴塞尔协议公布的方法和策略,从损失事件类型、业务部门以及损失分布额度的估计方法探讨利用高级度量方法的可能性和现实性以及操作中的现实问题。     

美国证券法对衍生交易市场风险披露的监管及借鉴——以SEC“305规则”体制的监管要求为视角

在以市场风险披露为基础的衍生交易监管政策下,SEC的“305规则”体制由定量、定性信息披露要求与前瞻性信息披露的安全港规则有机构成。我国应当借鉴先进的风险监管规则,构建创新的衍生工具市场风险披露法律框架,并解决好创新规则实施过程中的成本-收益权衡问题、收益波动性问题。     

Measures of risk associated to regulations compliance: a laboratory experiment on the use of common-pool resources

The present research examined the influence of different risk perspectives by the use of four different target persons (who could be affected: abstract person, self, specific person, and specific others) and of four different questionnaire answer formats (rating, open percentage, open, and closed frequency) on risk assessments. It was assumed that subjects use two different systems in terms of probabilistic reasoning: a distributional approach for abstract targets leading to higher risk estimates and a singular approach for specific targets leading to lower risk assessments. According to unrealistic optimism (UO) research (showing higher risk assessments for an abstract person than for self), the assumption was that risk assessments for a specific (named) target lead to lower risk assessments compared to an abstract target. Further, common quantitative answer formats for assessing risk were compared to explore differences in risk estimates. The hypotheses were tested using data of a sample of 512 students from a Bavarian university. The frequently confirmed finding of UO could be replicated with both rating scale and open frequency scale, which appeared to be more sensitive compared to the other used scales. However, UO disappeared when the comparison target was specific. Further, risk assessments for an abstract target were highest within every answer format and lowest for specific targets. Furthermore, results revealed that the type of answer format has a moderating effect on the extent of the influence of risk perspective on risk assessments. Overall, this study gives evidence that both the chosen scale and the risk perspective strongly influence risk assessments. Results aim to contribute to the research fields of quantitative assessment of perceived risk. They suggest that probabilistic reasoning in regard to risk not only underlies motivational or cognitive ego-defensive mechanisms but is rather presumably caused by the use of different systems of inferential strategies.     

A framework for risk criteria for critical infrastructures: fundamentals and case studies in the Netherlands

Critical infrastructures are complex societal systems. For that reason, risk criteria for critical infrastructures are also ‘part’ of the risk criteria for complex societal systems. The questions to be resolved are: (1) are the societal risk criteria of complex systems defined and quantifiable; and (2) is it known how the risk criteria of critical infrastructures relate to the risk criteria of the complex system as a whole. In other words, what certainty is there that the risk criteria of critical infrastructures meet the risk criteria of complex systems as a whole. A complex system in this respect may be a society as a whole, e.g. a nation.     

商业银行操作风险管理研究述评

操作风险管理是银行风险管理一个新的研究领域，近年来出现了一些有意义的研究成果。现有研究成果大体可分为操作风险定义、管理和计量等几个方面。在定义方面，已有不少的探讨，但目前尚没有形成统一的操作风险定义；在管理方面，公司治理、内部控制和风险管理理论分别从不同的角度为操作风险管理提供了支持，但总的来说，还没有形成系统的理论和技术；在计量方面，出现了一些有一定影响的操作风险度量模型，但还远没有达到令人满意的程度。本文对现有主要研究成果进行了总结归纳；同时。针对现有研究存在的不足，提出了今后操作风险管理研究需要注意的问题。     

商业银行操作风险管理研究述评

操作风险管理是银行风险管理一个新的研究领域,近年来出现了一些有意义的研究成果。现有研究成果大体可分为操作风险定义、管理和计量等几个方面。在定义方面,已有不少的探讨,但目前尚没有形成统一的操作风险定义;在管理方面,公司治理、内部控制和风险管理理论分别从不同的角度为操作风险管理提供了支持,但总的来说,还没有形成系统的理论和技术;在计量方面,出现了一些有一定影响的操作风险度量模型,但还远没有达到令人满意的程度。本文对现有主要研究成果进行了总结归纳;同时,针对现有研究存在的不足,提出了今后操作风险管理研究需要注意的问题。     

Something old and something new: comparing views about nanotechnology and nuclear energy

This paper provides a review and evaluation of different food‐risk prioritization and management frameworks that have been developed by governmental food‐safety authorities, regulatory agencies and non‐governmental institutions worldwide. It emphasizes the need for a new science‐ and risk‐based system approach to microbial risk prioritization. We find that most studies and projects argue for a systematic and multi‐disciplinary approach to risk prioritization but nevertheless lack it. Human and public health issues have constituted the core focus of food‐risk analysis in food‐borne risk prioritization studies, where the majority of studies use the concept of disease burden. Even though it is widely recognized that economic and market‐level impacts of microbial hazards and preventive interventions to reduce food‐borne risks are crucial to the performance of industries and markets, they are almost never accounted for in risk prioritization frameworks.     

GIRA: a general model for incident risk analysis

Most existing risk analysis methods focus on analysing risks that a system might face throughout its life. However, there is no explicit method for risk analysis during incidents. Approaches such as bow-ties and attack trees provide reliable information about triggers and escalation of incidents, but do not cover risk evaluation. Risk matrices include the entire risk analysis process; however, their risk evaluation approach is oversimplified. This paper presents a General Model for Incident Risk Analysis, which formalises the incident risk analysis process through an influence diagram. Our aim is to provide a decision support model that generates reliable risk information and enhances incident risk evaluation.     

企业集团财务风险预警方法的构建研究

财务风险预警是企业集团加强财务管理的重要内容之一.本文在结合企业集团管理实践的基础上,理性遴选具有较高显著性水平的财务风险预警指标,运用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,在科学合理制定各预警指标评价标准的基础上,采用通行的指标评分法对集团企业的财务风险进行综合评估,确定企业所处的财务风险级次,从而实现对企业集团财务风险的有效监管和控制.