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1.
The number of road tunnels in Europe has increased rapidly over the last years. Nevertheless, this increasing number is raising upfront an endogenous problem, which is the severity of accidents that may occur. After the spate of tunnel fires in Europe over the past decade, the European Commission embarked upon a major review of road tunnel safety and launched the Directive 2004/54/EC that sets minimum safety requirements and suggests, apart from the measures imposed based on tunnel characteristics, the implementation of a risk assessment in several cases. As a result, many risk assessment methods have been proposed worldwide, most of them based on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models. Although QRAs are helpful to address physical aspects and facilities of the infrastructures, current approaches in the road tunnel field have several challenges to meet in order to provide decision-makers with the overall risk picture. Taking into account that QRAs are progressively becoming the selected method to manage tunnel safety and risk, this paper’s purpose is twofold. On the one hand, it aims to inform safety managers and engineers about items which are not adequately handled by current road tunnel QRA models. On the other hand, it aims to suggest potential areas in which improvements should be made. Taking into consideration the challenges and the limitations discussed herein, this paper concludes that QRA models should not be the single criterion for the safety assessment process of these critical infrastructures. 相似文献
2.
A decision analytic approach for evaluating new aviation safety products and technologies is developed and demonstrated to consolidate five existing program assessment metrics to develop a unified metric that simultaneously considers the relative importance and contribution of each. This allows for a meaningful and objective evaluation and comparison of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) advanced aeronautical products and technologies. The resulting decision model is referred to as the Composite Program Assessment Score (CPAS). The CPAS includes the five existing metrics; technical development risk, implementation risk, fatal accident rate reduction, safety benefits and cost, and safety risk reduction, which are each defined and quantified by different sources. The CPAS involves the scaling and combination of these individual metrics. In this paper, two alternative combinatorial modeling approaches to calculate the CPAS are presented. The weighted sum model and an additive value theory model are compared and contrasted. The resulting CPAS metrics allow an overall comparison of all 48 of the NASA AvSP products and technologies. Currently CPAS is based on preliminary weight measures from subject matter experts to reflect the relative importance of each metric. Actual case studies of both linear and non‐linear value functions are demonstrated. 相似文献
3.
聚类分析是数理统计中的一种分析方法,是用数学方法定量地确定样本的亲疏关系,从而客观地进行分类。本文主要以模糊聚类分析在金融机构洗钱风险评估中的应用进行实例研究,对聚类的结果进行了分析,并提出了建议措施。 相似文献
4.
Technology has become a familiar companion in all areas of life. Production consumption, administration, education, communication, and leisure activities are all shaped by the use of technologies. However, people often associate with the term ‘technology’ attributes, such as catastrophic and potentially dangerous, and tend to take the benefits of technological products for granted. This asymmetry in risk–benefit perception is one of the main reasons why many consumers are concerned about ‘hidden’ risks of technologies and why they demand stringent regulatory actions when they feel unduly exposed to potential emissions or waste products associated with the lifecycle of technologies. This situation is often aggravated by social amplification processes, by which even small risks receive high media attention and are blown out of proportion in the public arena. At the same time, however, one needs to acknowledge that many technologies have the potential to harm the human health and the environment. The purpose of this article is to review our knowledge about risk perception with respect to technologies, in particular emerging technologies, and to suggest possible strategies to use this knowledge for improving our risk management practice. Technological risk perception is defined in this article as the processing of physical signals and/or information about a potentially harmful impact of using technology and the formation of a judgment about seriousness, likelihood, and acceptability of the respective technology. Based on the review of psychological, social, and cultural factors that shape individual and social risk perceptions, we have attempted to develop a structured framework that provides an integrative and systematic perspective on technological risk perception and that may assist risk management and regulation in taking perceptions into account. 相似文献
5.
In this paper, the results of a scenario analysis are presented using the models developed by the authors in their prior work. Therein an aggregate risk-simulation model of the maritime traffic in the Strait of Istanbul was developed giving consideration to traffic rules, vessel profiles, pilotage services, meteorological, geographical conditions, and vessel scheduling. A risk assessment was carried out by incorporating a probabilistic accident risk model into the simulation model to establish a baseline level of risk. Herein, 16 scenarios are described as modifications of the baseline scenario for the purpose of studying maritime risk mitigation in this geographic context. We have evaluated the impact of several factors such as vessel arrival rates, vessel pursuit distances, number of pilots, local traffic density, and vessel scheduling practices such as the single-lane traffic regime start time on safety risks. We also present a discussion on the impact of each factor on vessel passages and waiting times at both entrances of the Strait. We conclude with risk mitigation recommendations that reduce both risk and waiting times, and thus can be considered ‘win-win’ from both an operational and risk reduction perspective. 相似文献
6.
This study explores the perceptions of selected fresh produce and salmonid farms on the types and importance of various risk assessments conducted at the primary production level. Both the fresh produce and salmonid farms in this study are vigilantly conducting risk assessments to prevent or reduce potential food safety and infectious diseases from occurring. The participating farms generally carried out at least eight types of risk assessments such as health and safety, water, workers’ hygiene, site assessment and pesticides/veterinary medicines on an annual basis. Health and safety, pesticides/veterinary health, fresh produce safety and fish health assessments are some of the most important types of risk assessments for the farms. Most farms will continue with the good practice of conducting risk assessments even if it is not required by their customers or regulations but would prefer to reduce the amount of paper/electronic-based risk assessments. 相似文献
7.
Graham Dixon P. Sol Hart Christopher Clarke Nicole H. O’Donnell Jay Hmielowski 《Journal of Risk Research》2020,23(3):275-287
AbstractRecent advances in automotive technology have made fully automated self-driving cars technologically feasible. Despite offering many benefits such as increased safety, improved fuel efficiency, and greater disability access, public support for self-driving cars remains low. While previous studies find that demographic factors such as age and sex influence self-driving car support, limited research has examined variables that are well known to predict public attitudes toward emerging technology. Using self-report data from a quota sample of American adults (N?=?1008), we find that age and sex are not significantly associated with support for self-driving car policies when controlling for these other variables. Instead, significant predictors of support included trust in automotive institutions and regulatory bodies, recognition of self-driving car benefits, positive affect toward self-driving cars, and a greater perception that human-driven cars are riskier than self-driving cars. Importantly, we also find that individualism is negatively associated with support. That is, people who value personal autonomy and limited government regulation may perceive policies encouraging self-driving car use as threatening to their worldviews. Altogether, our results suggest strategies for encouraging greater public support of self-driving vehicles while also forecasting potential barriers as this technology emerges as a fixture in transportation policy. 相似文献
8.
The results of a 2?×?2 factorial online experiment are reported. The first factor refers to the information on precautionary measures and the second factor on the information regarding the share of EMF exposure from extra-high-voltage power lines compared to overall EMF exposure measured in-house. The study is based on a community sample of 440 subjects. Information on the share of EMF exposure from extra-high-voltage power lines at the in-house overall EMF exposure has no statistically significant effect of safety distances and acceptance distances. Further findings indicate that communications of precautionary measures produce a countervailing effect: on average, subjects require a higher distance from their homes compared to those who were not informed about precautionary measures. However, there is also a positive effect of precautionary information on the acceptance belief. Subjects who received this information are, in average, less negative about the claim that compliance with the value limit is sufficient in order to agree with the construction of a power line. Possible explanations of the findings such as cognitive dissonance, negativity bias, and style of information processing are discussed. 相似文献
9.
In recent years, there have been many cost-benefit studies on aviation safety, which deal mainly with economic issues, omitting some strictly technical aspects. This study compares aircraft accidents in relation to the characteristics of the aircraft, environmental conditions, route, and traffic type. The study was conducted using a database of over 1500 aircraft accidents worldwide, occurring between 1985 and 2010. The data were processed and then aggregated into groups, using cluster analysis based on an algorithm of partition binary ‘Hard c means.’ For each cluster, the ‘cluster representative’ accident was identified as the average of all the different characteristics of the accident. Moreover, a ‘hazard index’ was defined for each cluster (according to annual movements); using this index, it was possible to establish the dangerousness of each ‘cluster’ in terms of aviation accidents. Obtained results allowed the construction of an easy-to-use predictive model for accidents using multivariate analysis. 相似文献
10.
本文从深化金融生态研究的角度出发,通过借鉴生态学关于生态风险的评价理论,提出了区域金融生态风险的概念,分析了其与传统金融风险以及金融生态评价的联系和区别,并探讨了区域金融生态风险的评价原则和基本评价方法。为降低风险评价的难度,进一步建立了区域金融生态风险评价的简化框架以及相应的指标体系;并且利用生态学前沿研究成果-能值分析理论,刻画区域金融生态整体发展质量,促进金融生态观念在金融发展实践层面的应用。 相似文献
11.
Sanne Vammen Larsen 《Journal of Risk Research》2017,20(11):1439-1449
This paper takes its point of departure in Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. The paper puts forward a hypothesis, on which theoretical challenges the characteristics of risk society pose to impact assessment as a decision support tool; namely, the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions and the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate. Through a case example of integration of climate change in strategic environmental assessment, the paper uses empirical evidence from a survey and a series of interviews to carry out a preliminary discussion of how the theoretical challenges are reflected in practice. The case study results show that the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions in a risk society is reflected in the current state of practice, while the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate is not clearly reflected. 相似文献
12.
Numerous policymakers have accepted claims in the public health literature that the United States is in the middle of a serious epidemic of childhood lead poisoning, due primarily to lead paint in the housing stock. This article analyzes some of the most influential lead paint epidemiological studies from an economics perspective and finds evidence that the claimed effects of lead on intelligence, school success, and other outcomes may be grossly exaggerated. In addition, the main cost-benefit analysis used by policymakers to advocate lead paint abatement of the entire U.S. housing stock contains serious mathematical errors and strikingly implausible economic assumptions. A corrected model shows that the proposed national abatement policy is likely to yield no net benefit. 相似文献
13.
The working environment and the working conditions can influence the well-being of hospital employees and consequently their performance at work. The present questionnaire-based study (737 valid questionnaires) developed and evaluated a quantitative structural equation model (SEM) that examines the interdependence between the indoor environmental quality (IEQ), the working conditions, the atopic constituents and the reported health complains of employees in three Greek hospitals. The results of the SEM reveal that IEQ could partially explain the employees’ symptoms in the hospitals. The working conditions proved to be a key factor in the relationship between IEQ and symptoms. Multi-group analysis has shown that this interdependence is affected by the building characteristics, by the gender, the smoking habits and the specialty of each participant, but not by their age. 相似文献
14.
在分析风险自留的内生逻辑基础上,进一步分析风险自留实现银行信用风险补偿的内在机理。研究表明：银保信贷系统通过对贷款企业个体风险与事先设定的平均代偿风险的匹配性甄别,实现对银行信用风险的分级补偿功能。针对银行超预期信用风险,先行实施银行风险拨备机制对银行平均代偿风险进行补偿,然后实施超额风险自留机制对超过平均代偿风险的银行超额风险部分再次进行补偿,超额风险自留补偿基金将由银行与担保机构依据各自的风险均衡配置阈值占比共同筹集,以此来实现银行信用风险分级补偿目标。并以此为依据,设计了银保信贷系统风险自留机制。 相似文献
15.
城市轨道交通建设中涉及第三者财产损失的事故占有相当比例。近年来,已有较多的工程风险基本理论及风险管理方面的研究成果,然而针对隧道的风险管理却应用较少,特别是基于量化方法的风险分析研究比较缺乏,这导致了工程风险分析和工程保险工作一直缺乏数理分析依据。文章在盾构隧道施工的环境风险分析与工程保险的承保条件评价中使用了量化的方... 相似文献
16.
AbstractIn June 2016, after decades of debate, the U.S. Congress enacted a major revision to the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) of 1976, the U.S. regulatory law applicable to industrial chemicals. It has been theorized that Europe may seek to export its stricter environmental standards under REACH to the United States. Thus, it is interesting to examine whether the environmental, health, and safety practices – including the values – found in REACH impacted the TSCA reform debate in the U.S. We chose to focus the comparison on the following issues that were central features of REACH: responsibility to develop safety data, priorities for safety assessments, definition of the safety standard, restrictions on chemical use, and preemption of regulatory activity by lower levels of government. There are three major findings. First, the U.S. did not implement the EU’s solution of putting the burden of data generation, risk assessment, and risk management on the industry. Second, REACH is more precautionary in its design than the amended TSCA. Third, the new U.S. law is generally less strict than REACH in their requirements on industry, though it is also less preemptive of lower levels of government than REACH is. Moreover, the U.S. retains a common law approach to chemical-induced injury that is more punitive of industrial errors than is European Union law. The EU’s attempt to export REACH regulation failed in the case of U.S.A., as the U.S. Congress did not reform TSCA based on the REACH model. We conclude that, although the problems identified prior to the enactment of REACH were similar to those identified in the U.S., REACH’s key principles and elements were not adopted in the U.S. 相似文献
17.
采用对比法和归纳法,从变额年金的风险因素入手,通过对比国外比较成熟的风险管理评估模式和风险管理需要的外部条件等因素的探讨,为变额年金在风险管理模式、最低保证利益设计等方面提出一定的建议。 相似文献
18.
Well-informed public preferences are key to enabling successful and sustainable energy transitions worldwide. However, limited explorative evidence exists on what the public already knows and wants to know about the electricity generation technologies and their Environmental, Health, and Safety (EHS) risks. Understanding these issues is important for preparing informational materials and facilitating formation of informed preferences. We present results of an explorative interview study with 12 Swiss people. Despite the public debate on energy in Switzerland, we still identify significant awareness and knowledge gaps as well as misconceptions related to both technologies and their EHS risks. For accidental risks, the people tend to think beyond probabilities and consequences and consider further aspects, such as risk controllability and trust in experts and authorities. Most importantly, we find that people are able and tend to think of the electricity system as a whole portfolio: they actively realize the need to deploy multiple electricity technologies and accept some of the EHS risks. We conclude with concrete recommendations for preparing informational materials on electricity sector transitions in Switzerland and elsewhere. We also argue that future social research on energy should pay more attention to public perception of whole technology portfolios rather than single technologies. 相似文献
19.
The recently issued Statement on Auditing Standards No. 109, Understanding the Entity and Its Environment and Assessing the Risks of Material Misstatement, emphasizes the need for auditors to understand the client’s business and environment, particularly the client’s business risk [American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) (2006a), understanding the entity and its environment and assessing the risks of material misstatement, Statement on Auditing Standards No. 109. New York, NY: AICPA]. However, the manner in which auditors obtain such an understanding, especially an auditor’s assessment of a client’s business risk, is often challenging for students because they lack the business experience necessary to perform such an assessment. This case provides students with an opportunity to assess business risk in a realistic context that includes evidence beyond the content of the financial statements. Company information is provided via a webpage (www.premierpunch.com) with content similar to that of an actual investor relations site. Students must evaluate the information presented in the company’s annual report, press releases and other sources, and consider the impact of that information on several facets of business risk. Students also perform an analytical review of the company’s financial statements and synthesize the case information into a professional memo containing their assessment of business risk. 相似文献
20.
相比于巴塞尔新资本协议的现代化管理要求,我国银行在信用风险管理方面的能力,基础相对薄弱,无法全面适应银行业未来经营发展、市场竞争、业务持续发展等需求.为此,文章将通过银行信用风险评估模型的构建,从中提出强化信用风险管理体系的方法,进而为银行信用风险管理水平的提高,提供有效的依据. 相似文献